Crisis after the epidemic

[fiulpro]

People will be jobless without any personal savings , they won't be able to pay off their debt . The middle class will suffer a lot .
Rich people will keep getting richer because at this time they are out there giving people loans and would take hefty profit out of it.
Poor and the middle class society without any jobs will have a hard time even completing the schooling of their children .
Financially everyone will suffer , people will be psychologically affected at the same time.
Physically too , because of no one allowed outside , being a couch potato has its own risks , therefore I would say , life would be very very hard .

[1714803274]

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[1714803274]

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[1714803274]

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[PaySpace]

How long do you think the crisis can last after the epidemic?
What are the most likely events to occur?

• Countries will strive for full self-sufficiency in food, energy, medicine, and means of production.
• The share of human labor in logistics, communications, and services will decrease.
  
• Remote work and virtual services will become standard.
• States will be able to better control citizens and their personal lives.

[Casdinyard]

How long do you think the crisis can last after the epidemic?
What are the most likely events to occur?

• Countries will strive for full self-sufficiency in food, energy, medicine, and means of production.

That means they should utilize all their resources and do not rely on products that is mainly only available in other countries for the mean time, budget should be set prior to the needs of the people.

• The share of human labor in logistics, communications, and services will decrease.

Less important jobs should be in less priority, the reopening of essential company and businesses should be prioritize.

• Remote work and virtual services will become standard.

I guess it will for the mean time, it will be great if we normalize that.

• States will be able to better control citizens and their personal lives.

They already does, we are just naughty citizens.[/list]

[Betwrong]

People will be jobless without any personal savings , they won't be able to pay off their debt . The middle class will suffer a lot .
Rich people will keep getting richer because at this time they are out there giving people loans and would take hefty profit out of it.
Poor and the middle class society without any jobs will have a hard time even completing the schooling of their children .
Financially everyone will suffer , people will be psychologically affected at the same time.
Physically too , because of no one allowed outside , being a couch potato has its own risks , therefore I would say , life would be very very hard .

I can't share your pessimism.  The world economy isn't in rubble quite yet, but things start improving already. Search "lifting the lockdown" on YouTube, and you'll see that countries, one by one, start easing and gradually lifting quarantine restrictions. And it's not because their governments are evil monsters who want to destroy the world. No. It's because the current stats on the Corona virus worldwide allow us to calculate the risks, and to see that they are low.

There will be no major economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. And it's not just my words. DOW JONES index is up 12.69% this month:

Isn't it the indication that the things are starting to improve?

[figmentofmyass]

There will be no major economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. And it's not just my words. DOW JONES index is up 12.69% this month

the stock market =/= the economy. stock investors have been betting on an economic recovery, riding optimism about stimulus and reopening, but that won't last if the economic data doesn't measure up. the white house is also now signalling they don't want to pass any more stimulus bills: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/politics/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-kevin-hassett/index.html

and the data coming out of china re post-lockdown output is disturbing: https://www.theepochtimes.com/no-sign-of-recovery-for-chinese-economy-as-virus-cripples-export-orders_3336205.html

i don't mean to get all doomsday here, just pointing out that there may be some tough times ahead. lots of uncertainty.

[imstillthebest]

 if epedimic is over then crisis can also be done ( everything goes back to normal ) but idk maybe next year there will be another crisis or epedemic but i believe that will not be strong like the covid  . strong crisis like covid are also rare and will take more years to occur but lets hope there will be another one because people already suffered alot    .  we need a good time for recovery too   .  after that  , cryptos can also recover as well  . i think that will happen after the covid has been cleared out

[Bezobraznike]

if epedimic is over then crisis can also be done ( everything goes back to normal ) but idk maybe next year there will be another crisis or epedemic but i believe that will not be strong like the covid  . strong crisis like covid are also rare and will take more years to occur but lets hope there will be another one because people already suffered alot    .  we need a good time for recovery too   .  after that  , cryptos can also recover as well  . i think that will happen after the covid has been cleared out

    Some people ask a fair question, will everything go back to normal ever again? I guess there will be a new normal,
in news I see announcements for many changes, how businesses will operate after quarantine ends. Many fears from
new wave, and who can guarantee that we will not have new viruses in the future?
   Pandemic is slowing down, the end of this is hear. What will happen with many countries is yet to be seen, but I am
not optimistic about current economy, maybe it will have to fall apart and give more space to crypto-currencies.

[$crypto$]

After this pandemic, we can't say that we can go back to our normal lives that easily. We still need to be careful when going outside. The government, economy, and even us, need to recover from all of this virus had brought us. Since we're in the lockdown for a long time, the economy is going down, and it needs to recover. This quarantine also gave people expenses without income (additional utility expenses), so we also need to save money and recover from that.

I'm not sure what you're pertaining to events, but businesses need to start operating and earn revenues since they've been closed for months. Everything that was postponed because of COVID, they will start functioning again. It's how we can regain the vitality of the economy.

COVID-19 post scene will be like, starting from the very start. In terms of business, there are many employees that probably would not be accepted because many employers burned their profits to survive their company during the covid siege. And absolutely, the economy will fall down because every country gave their best shot to fight COVID-19 and they need to fund everything or reshuffling all funds just to protect their citizens life.

In terms of business, there will certainly be a very drastic decline where many people cannot get out or have their activities restricted and their industries hampered by the presence of Covid-19, therefore the government will continue to try to deal with those infected with such large funds because of this is the worst outbreak in this season where almost 100-countries are more accepting of such fathers, especially Europe as a developing country also experienced the same thing.

Termination of employees will certainly occur and the company will reduce their salaries due to income according to this covid.

[coinfinger]

Some people already made x2 from this bottom out, thats crazy to think about but quite possible as well. Think about it, price was under 4k for a period, however it went back up to 5k as well, if some person had a buy order between 4k and 5k, the price also went over 9k as well, so they probably x2, IN A MONTH.

So, it is quite possible that there were a million ways to make money during this period, we all know just the bitcoin part and that was one way to double your money in a month, which is crazy to think about, if thats only the bitcoin way to double your money, think of all the other ways people could have made profits. Long story short crisis and chaos always brings out the best potentials to make money, thankfully I bought some as well and profited, I would have been very sad if I missed this chance.

[Snappycoco]

Some scientist believe that this pandemic will last for not less than 8 months due to handy testings of vaccines. It is also believed that after pandemic, their will be a new normal where in facing mask will be a must specially in crowded places, economy will soon be rising again back to its normal phase, and some most likely people will be very much vigilant on their surroundings

[Betwrong]

There will be no major economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. And it's not just my words. DOW JONES index is up 12.69% this month

the stock market =/= the economy. stock investors have been betting on an economic recovery, riding optimism about stimulus and reopening, but that won't last if the economic data doesn't measure up. the white house is also now signalling they don't want to pass any more stimulus bills: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/politics/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-kevin-hassett/index.html

I read this article differently. It's not that they "don't want" to undertake another round of aid. Rather, they think it might not be necessary. Meaning that they will do it if necessary. So, I see it like this: either the economy recovers with the aid already given, or they will provide more aid for it to recover. In any case the recovery is inevitable.

and the data coming out of china re post-lockdown output is disturbing: https://www.theepochtimes.com/no-sign-of-recovery-for-chinese-economy-as-virus-cripples-export-orders_3336205.html

i don't mean to get all doomsday here, just pointing out that there may be some tough times ahead. lots of uncertainty.

Regarding this article, I liked the top comment on Reddit, where it was discussed:

But seriously, people are buying less these days, that's a fact. The export-dependent part of the Chinese economy will start recovering no sooner than the lockdown in the Western countries is lifted. And on when this can happen I will cite the first article here:

On prospects of the US economy reopening, Hassett predicted that "almost every state will be mostly open economically" likely by the end of May.

However, I totally agree with you that there's still lots of uncertainty. Only fools know everything for sure, and I'm trying not to be one of them.

[FanatMonet]

They promise the vaccine only by the end of 2020, and no one knows how much more time will be spent on economic recovery. I would suggest that the world will need 3-4 years to return to the indicators of 2019, primarily in terms of economy and unemployment.

[figmentofmyass]

the stock market =/= the economy. stock investors have been betting on an economic recovery, riding optimism about stimulus and reopening, but that won't last if the economic data doesn't measure up. the white house is also now signalling they don't want to pass any more stimulus bills: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/politics/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-kevin-hassett/index.html

I read this article differently. It's not that they "don't want" to undertake another round of aid. Rather, they think it might not be necessary.

read between the lines. of course it's gonna be necessary. even hassett himself says we are about to see "unprecedentedly" horrible economic news over the next couple months!

he's just saying this because trump and mcconnell are using the specter of "no more aid" to push democrats into accepting republican objectives like zero employer liability/workers compensation for coronavirus cases. my point is that the stock market IMO has already priced in continuing stimulus and republicans are now threatening to cut it off, which could threaten the stock market recovery you are pointing to.

Meaning that they will do it if necessary. So, I see it like this: either the economy recovers with the aid already given, or they will provide more aid for it to recover. In any case the recovery is inevitable.

lol, you and the stock market are living in la-la land. every single piece of data coming out says that economies are utterly collapsing all over the world, even as they reopen---the sole exceptions being tiny countries like taiwan and vietnam.

the stimulus has acted as a band-aid that is clearly failing. meanwhile, USA coronavirus cases and death rates are still rising significantly and governors are saying "fuck it, we can't beat it, let's reopen anyway".

people who are optimistic about this scenario---i'd like some of what they're smoking.

Regarding this article, I liked the top comment on Reddit, where it was discussed:

that's the point. wuhan reopened a month ago and the domestic economy is not recovering at all.

everybody keeps repeating that as soon as "the reopening" happens, consumers will start buying like never before. the actual real data shows this couldn't be further from the truth. they aren't buying now and they won't be buying later because the economy is collapsing and no one has any confidence about future income.

[Oilacris]

How long do you think the crisis can last after the epidemic?
What are the most likely events to occur?

After being devastated with this pandemic and if this one would even go longer then going back to normal would really take some specific amount of time or shall we say
recovery will not be directly felt out on point which means it will gradually going back to normal phase.Lets hope that this one will not really last too long or several months
because if we do try to look where its just a few months later before this pandemic starts but we can already saw the economic effects that been experiencing
worldwide.I cant imagine on what it would looks like if this one will last a year.

[Betwrong]

Meaning that they will do it if necessary. So, I see it like this: either the economy recovers with the aid already given, or they will provide more aid for it to recover. In any case the recovery is inevitable.

lol, you and the stock market are living in la-la land. every single piece of data coming out says that economies are utterly collapsing all over the world, even as they reopen---the sole exceptions being tiny countries like taiwan and vietnam.

Actually I'm not that knowledgeable in the field of economy to have my own opinion. Rather I make my optimistic conclusions seeing that the stock market starts to recover. I think those guys know what they are doing, while I myself can indeed be living in la-la land.

the stimulus has acted as a band-aid that is clearly failing. meanwhile, USA coronavirus cases and death rates are still rising significantly and governors are saying "fuck it, we can't beat it, let's reopen anyway".

If you mean the yesterday's spike



it could be an outlier. We've yet to see what it was. But even that wasn't the highest number of daily deaths in the US during the corona pandemic, 2,350(yesterday) vs 2,683 in April 21 and 2,470 in April 28. I wouldn't call it a significant rise. In fact, it isn't a rise at all.

As of daily new cases, here's the stats:



I can't see a rise here either.

[figmentofmyass]

the stimulus has acted as a band-aid that is clearly failing. meanwhile, USA coronavirus cases and death rates are still rising significantly and governors are saying "fuck it, we can't beat it, let's reopen anyway".

If you mean the yesterday's spike



it could be an outlier. We've yet to see what it was. But even that wasn't the highest number of daily deaths in the US during the corona pandemic, 2,350(yesterday) vs 2,683 in April 21 and 2,470 in April 28. I wouldn't call it a significant rise. In fact, it isn't a rise at all.

i guess it depends what source you look at. the WHO said the surge a few days ago (2909 deaths) was the highest on record.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-records-highest-daily-death-toll-states-start-reopening-economy-2020-5

and that's after 6-7 weeks of locking down.

it's probably best not to focus on nationwide statistics anyway. dropping rates in NYC and a couple other areas are masking rising cases and deaths in many parts of the country, which is probably meaningful due to the exponential nature of viral spread. a draft government report even suggests the daily death rate will double by june.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-world-updates-20200505-2uk3iv5ng5hynmr6foem6f3gde-story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

we'll see how things progress, but the experts now think this pandemic will keep up at a slow burn, and that we'll definitely have a second wave.

could we see on-again off-again lockdowns? i don't think the stock market will take kindly to that.

[abhiseshakana]

that's the point. wuhan reopened a month ago and the domestic economy is not recovering at all.

everybody keeps repeating that as soon as "the reopening" happens, consumers will start buying like never before. the actual real data shows this couldn't be further from the truth. they aren't buying now and they won't be buying later because the economy is collapsing and no one has any confidence about future income.

Indeed the Chinese economic turnaround cannot be in direct gear 5, they are accelerating now, I used to assume that recovery would take a long time, but in reality, it was faster for the domestic consumption sector. I see this from the export demand for crabs, lobsters, and red coral trout which increase significantly every day which makes the selling price also begin to rise. These three products are not basic needs and the price is relatively expensive, if demand is high I can assume that the restaurant business is starting to stretch and rise.

The consumption sector will recover faster than the industrial and manufacturing sectors. can be explained simply that the government will re-stimulate the passion of consumption of the people who can become the economic foundation and industrial movement to meet domestic needs while waiting for international markets that have not recovered from Corona.

For frozen fish products such as groupers, snappers or ribbonfish are consumption fish whose prices are not too expensive exports still fall as usual. Export demand for shells has also begun to appear, even my partner in Vietnam also confirmed, in addition to China's lockdown has also been opened so that companies do not need to take policies to lay off employees. Buttons demand from garment factories in Europe and China are not yet normal but Chinese businessmen are supported by the government to be confident to start production. Exports are not only from Indonesia but also from Africa.

This could also be China's strategy for the initial production and flooding countries that came out of the pandemic with cheap Chinese products, of course, maybe paid off with debt.

[CarnagexD]

It is too hard to tell that the economy becomes normal and when it is the end of this kind of crisis. Today we are now facing a lot of problems and tragedy to the whole country the lack of supply and stocks of foods and other things that the people needed for their daily lives also one of our biggest problems is the cure even there are a lot of people make recovered immediately still there is no cure and the person already infected also can be infected again by the virus and some of their plasma in the blood they donate on it to the hospitals so they can cure other people with the still cases of the covid. In the country of the Philippines, their president makes a reward to the people who can make a cure which is over 10 million pesos that were a huge amount of money to have is you found the cure but still no one discovers on it. But still, we are looking forward there is a cure immediately to back to normal all of the things.

[Reatim]

How long do you think the crisis can last after the epidemic?
What are the most likely events to occur?

For sure the main effect will be in Labor workers as the companies and manufacturers will need to lessen their employees as the market demand will also divided in to parts.

Specially those who are in the business that provides luxuries and not main commodities .

even in this early days there are some news about companies cutting their employees when the business resumes next month.
sad to accept but our life will never be the same after this and will take long years before coming back to normal.

[repear7]

How long do you think the crisis can last after the epidemic?
What are the most likely events to occur?

The curve of the pandemic has not shown a drastic decline, it is feared that there will still be a second wave. In my opinion, the impact of the crisis will be felt until the end of the year. a possible scenario is that state debt to the world bank will increase because it is a choice that will be taken to overcome the impact of the financial crisis due to a pandemic.