figmentofmyass
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May 08, 2020, 03:54:24 AM |
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I think it was possible to get away from this hand, that is why I like to hold myself to certain ranges of hands when I play OP/OOP or against somebody OP/OOP.
In my opinion, all in was a mistake here, you should check or bet (but not much), especially OOP. Villian re-raised pre-flop and it shows a lot of strength, which indicates hand like (AA, KK, AKs, AQs). fair point, but not having any history on villain, i dunno if i should assume that range. plenty of players like to 3bet more aggressively than that. even with that limited range, AK/AQ obviously missed the flop, which was burning in my mind when he jammed. it screamed "missed flop, overcards" to me. Additionally, when you go all in it shows to Villain that you have almost nothing, taking into consideration the flop and pre-flop betting, even with a flush draw you would likely to be slow-playing this hand. ah, you have it reversed. i raised first preflop, he limp-3bet me OOP, then he went all-in on the flop. so now maybe you have some insight into my mindset, and why i thought there was a good chance he missed the flop and was trying to bluff me off it, or had an underpair. i did contemplate a fold, but tbh i figured JJ+/AQ+/KQ/88/77/JT+ were in his range, also possibly suited connectors with gutshot/flush draw there too, also bluffs. (i've seen lagtards pull this move with 48o on me) i don't think he's shoving TT/99 here most of the time. the more i think about, the more EV+ calling seems tbh. calling was a gamble but mainly just because of the pot size relative to blinds. My suggestion: look into poker hands ranges, which hand you should play from which position, especially in 9-handed Texas Holdem, I play only 6 hands tables.
hmmm.... Premium Pocket Pairs – Hands like TT+ are premium preflop holdings and should be raised first in from any position. These are hands that are profitable over the long run, and can withstand aggression from 3-bets, as well as callers. https://upswingpoker.com/texas-holdem-starting-hands-guide/
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 08, 2020, 11:27:59 AM Last edit: May 09, 2020, 01:50:19 AM by wwzsocki |
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...ah, you have it reversed. i raised first preflop, he limp-3bet me OOP, then he went all-in on the flop. so now maybe you have some insight into my mindset, and why i thought there was a good chance he missed the flop and was trying to bluff me off it, or had an underpair...
Ok, the pre-flop betting I understood correctly, only I thought that you were first all-in post-flop. In my opinion, all in is a bad decision here, but still, I will bet big also because if there is a draw, then it would be very costly to see the turn and impossible to slow play this hand further, of course, it indicates that the next bet will be all in, taking into consideration chips amount on the table. ...not having any history on villain, i dunno if i should assume that range. plenty of players like to 3bet more aggressively than that...
I agree with you and exactly because there were no readings on Villian you should assume that he is playing correctly this hand, of course, after few hands you can adjust that. This is not that I think in such situation about each player that he is a tight-aggressive reg, of course not, but with no readings at all, it is better to stick to your own poker play and ranges because it is easy to predict what he could have. There is no room for doubts and guessing in poker . As we can see, Villain turned out to have a strong hand and I have to tell you that many regular players like to play these types of hands OP, exactly as he did. Why? Because there is a big chance that many players will pay at least BB to see the flop, taking into consideration no bet from Villian. The best scenario, I like to see in such situations is that everybody at least bets and I dream to see a raise, to be able to make a huge pot and then scare off weaker hands with my big bet in the end. If Villian would raise in this situation, there is almost no chance that players with weaker hands OOP will pay to see the flop. hmmm.... Hands like TT+ are premium preflop holdings and should be raised first in from any position.
I suggested only looking into ranges, not to search online on how to play them , because it all depends from individual players and how they play poker. Is this a tight or loose-aggressive player or maybe a calling station, fish, maniac, reg? All these players will play different hands ranges from different positions, and that is why I like to assume with no readings the most common hand ranges provided in poker books, especially on low stakes tables or in the early stage of tournaments (when I know nothing about the opponents). ... if you fold out every time someone limp raises or 3-bets you with QQ you will lose a lot of value...
Of course and I never said that Hero should fold in this situation, I will be checking this 3 bet also. What I said was that all in was a mistake post-flop and to assume without readings that Villain plays looser ranges.
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figmentofmyass
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May 09, 2020, 06:17:58 PM |
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...not having any history on villain, i dunno if i should assume that range. plenty of players like to 3bet more aggressively than that...
I agree with you and exactly because there were no readings on Villian you should assume that he is playing correctly this hand, of course, after few hands you can adjust that. you assume everyone always has the nuts just because you don't have a read on their playing style? This is not that I think in such situation about each player that he is a tight-aggressive reg, of course not, but with no readings at all, it is better to stick to your own poker play and ranges because it is easy to predict what he could have. i did stick to my own ranges: QQ is a premium hand and it was a favorable flop. in my experience, AA was just one of many possibilities---most of which QQ beats. even against your super strong preflop TAG range (AA, KK, AK, AQ) QQ is a favorite to win against 50% of hands on that flop. so why would you put in 30% of your stack preflop, then fold? why call preflop at all---just for the 12% chance at set mining? Is this a tight or loose-aggressive player or maybe a calling station, fish, maniac, reg? with only a few hands played together, it's impossible to know, so you have to assume he could be any of those player types. right? it seems EV- to assume he is super tight and has AA/KK 100% of the time.
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jademaxsuy
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May 09, 2020, 07:27:57 PM |
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In my opinion, the guy with two queens on hand and when thea flop is shown, that person is now risking his chips that he might have flush and he did since the flop have 3 diamonds card already plus his Q of diamond which all he need is one more diamond card and he'll get flash of diamonds. I sometimes risk like that when playing poker. The guy with QQ cards still have a chance of winning over your card even if it's not a flush but don't know the chances of winning and If the river is also K then he will also get two pair which is higher than yours QQKK.
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cabron
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May 09, 2020, 08:08:25 PM |
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In my opinion, the guy with two queens on hand and when thea flop is shown, that person is now risking his chips that he might have flush and he did since the flop have 3 diamonds card already plus his Q of diamond which all he need is one more diamond card and he'll get flash of diamonds. I sometimes risk like that when playing poker. The guy with QQ cards still have a chance of winning over your card even if it's not a flush but don't know the chances of winning and If the river is also K then he will also get two pair which is higher than yours QQKK.
He already has 4 diamonds so why not wait for the other card after all he had already bet so much. The bluff seems to have worked. It must be very disappointing for the player who has the KK33 that 2 diamonds came. The thing with Texas Poker is that this is a winner take all game.
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figmentofmyass
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May 09, 2020, 10:12:21 PM |
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In my opinion, the guy with two queens on hand and when thea flop is shown, that person is now risking his chips that he might have flush and he did since the flop have 3 diamonds card already plus his Q of diamond which all he need is one more diamond card and he'll get flash of diamonds.
He already has 4 diamonds so why not wait for the other card after all he had already bet so much. *** FLOP *** [td 5d 9h] there were only 2 diamonds on the flop. the only options are to 1. call all-in on the flop or 2. fold. i only had a 12.5% chance of hitting the back door diamond flush. that isn't the value i'm calling based on either since i know Ad and Kd are in his range. anyway, we should move on to some other hands. rehashing the hand myself (and considering @Steamtyme's take) i think the call was acceptable. good chance to double up, just unfortunate to run into a bigger monster starting hand.
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 13, 2020, 03:44:13 PM Last edit: May 14, 2020, 12:12:10 AM by wwzsocki |
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...anyway, we should move on to some other hands. rehashing the hand myself (and considering @Steamtyme's take) i think the call was acceptable. good chance to double up, just unfortunate to run into a bigger monster starting hand.
If you have any interesting hands, please drop here that we can discuss further. I like this discussion because we have all different styles of playing poker and each comment added something new, but we all agree that this was a pretty unlucky flop for our Hero and even the best player would have hard times playing post-flop this hand further. I have to admit here that I have folded such hands as KK or AA on such bad post-flop boards when multiple draws were possible and Villian bets aggressive, of course, it could be a bluff and many time for sure it was, but the majority of times when I try to catch such bluff it turns out to be a total failure and very often they had the nuts indeed . I know one player who always won such hands, bluffing and going all-in with literally nothing putting others under enormous pressure, but later turned out that this was a total scam and he can see the cards. That explains such perfect bluff play. https://www.cardschat.com/news/mike-postle-poker-cheater-evidence-88866This is the beauty of playing No Limit Holdem that you have to deal with such decisions as to go all in and risk hall stack or just to fold and wait for a better hand.
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RapTarX
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May 13, 2020, 03:58:02 PM |
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I have to admit here that I have folded such hands as KK or AA
That's something I wouldn't fold; may be because I'm yet to be the expert poker guy. Earlier, I had lost 2k chips on SwC with AA on hands and there was three diamonds as well in the flop (Four including my one). Guess what, I didn't get any diamond in the turn & river. I was busted I would have folded like you did.
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 13, 2020, 04:41:27 PM |
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...three diamonds as well in the flop (Four including my one). Guess what, I didn't get any diamond in the turn & river...
Yes, I have learned to play flash draws also the hard way . Not only many missed all-ins, but also many times, even when I hit the flush finally, there was somebody with a higher card than me. When I got busted with suited 8,9, then this is not a big deal, but when I lose holding KQs with A6s, then it hurts so much. Still, to this day is hard to play draws if Villian with top pair goes all-in post-flop to make it hard and very costly decision, to check.
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figmentofmyass
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May 13, 2020, 10:30:33 PM |
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i've been loosely following that case---"postlegate" as it has come to be known. we have still yet to see any hard evidence of hole card knowledge, or a conspiracy between postle and the card room. it's all based on statistical data, despite the fact that all the play was live streamed. i wonder how it will all play out. 90% of the 2+2 forum seems to think he's guilty as hell and the numbers do suggest that, but without any hard evidence......
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 14, 2020, 12:02:05 AM |
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...we have still yet to see any hard evidence of hole card knowledge, or a conspiracy between postle and the card room. it's all based on statistical data, despite the fact that all the play was live streamed...
This is exactly why this case started, the statistics where very disturbing because somebody compared them with the last scam when there was a superuser that could see hall cards and the win ratio of Postle was much higher!!! Because it was live-streamed people found out his very suspicious way of playing, he was making very strange moves by the table and there is no doubt he was looking at the phone almost all the time. Here is one YouTuber who made few videos about this scam and is worth looking to know the case and especially to look at majority the suspicious hands when he Postle was playing in the "god mode", which means - he was winning everything from everybody bluffing and going all-in with literally nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kDtE9vrRiAThere are more in deep videos on this channel if somebody is interested, but this one I linked above is the shortest and most to the point one.
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figmentofmyass
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May 14, 2020, 01:12:07 AM |
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Here is one YouTuber who made few videos about this scam and is worth looking to know the case and especially to look at majority the suspicious hands when he Postle was playing in the "god mode", which means - he was winning everything from everybody bluffing and going all-in with literally nothing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kDtE9vrRiAThere are more in deep videos on this channel if somebody is interested, but this one I linked above is the shortest and most to the point one. i watched that video, as well as veronica brill's which kicked off the whole controversy. i'll admit it's suspicious as hell---lots of circumstantial evidence, and amazing that his stats are better than absolute poker's infamous potripper. but.......how do we know he's not just an incredible hand reader? this is live poker, not online, after all. i agree with doug polk. we need to see postle play somewhere besides the stones cardroom. let's see if he can pull those amazing soul reads live streamed at the bike.
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 19, 2020, 03:30:28 PM |
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...we need to see postle play somewhere besides the stones cardroom. let's see if he can pull those amazing soul reads live streamed at the bike. There was a video that shows a pretty average if not bad play of Mike, just after the scandal and outside the stones room, but I can't find it now. Anyways, there is another video that shows Postle playing a pretty normal poker style and losing hands when bluffing into the nuts, just a few weeks before the live sessions on stones started and where he was playing like a totally different player. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT0NHSsPv3YWe can clearly see that Mike behaves just like any other player in this game and doesn't do all these suspected moves, never looks behind his legs or cover his eyes and head. Additionally, he is literally saying by the table that he has not the best year ahead and exactly in this hand, we see on the video, he was bitten by a player with whom he will be playing only a few weeks later in the "god mode" and crushes him with no problems at all. Just think about this, better stats as the "absolute poker's infamous potripper" - to achieve this you have to be some kind of poker guru (we have never seen before ) or... cheating. PS If anybody has any interesting hands, please drop them here that we can discuss further. Every hand is welcome, but such hard once as we have discussed already are the best.
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Steamtyme
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May 19, 2020, 04:06:47 PM Last edit: May 19, 2020, 04:54:13 PM by Steamtyme |
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Postle the godmode runner. I owe this dude a lot, mostly because his scandal turned me back on to poker. I got a YouTube hit for Doug Polks video and then i fell down the rabbit hole of poker hand review videos.
Joey Ingram went deep in his investigation for hours and days. I like to reserve judgement but I would be hard pressed to find a reasonable doubt of collusion.
I'd have to dig but they showed a week where the stones manager/poker room organizer was away for a week. During this time Mikes magic was gone and his table demeanor was very different. I will try and fine the video/article. I think this was the only such week where his gameplay suffered during his winning streak. Again speculation but I can't recall all the details.
There is also some interesting stuff posted by berkey that implicates someone at stones through his understanding of rfid. A lot of their errors he says aren't possible, and he shows how easy it is to create a shareable link to display table hole cards. Edit: Here is a massive thread on the case. From 2+2. The OP has been updated with links and references.
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figmentofmyass
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May 20, 2020, 06:52:01 PM |
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Postle the godmode runner. I owe this dude a lot, mostly because his scandal turned me back on to poker. I got a YouTube hit for Doug Polks video and then i fell down the rabbit hole of poker hand review videos.
Joey Ingram went deep in his investigation for hours and days. I like to reserve judgement but I would be hard pressed to find a reasonable doubt of collusion.
I'd have to dig but they showed a week where the stones manager/poker room organizer was away for a week. During this time Mikes magic was gone and his table demeanor was very different. I will try and fine the video/article. I think this was the only such week where his gameplay suffered during his winning streak. Again speculation but I can't recall all the details.
There is also some interesting stuff posted by berkey that implicates someone at stones through his understanding of rfid. A lot of their errors he says aren't possible, and he shows how easy it is to create a shareable link to display table hole cards. Edit: Here is a massive thread on the case. From 2+2. The OP has been updated with links and references.
no link---are you talking about the megathread in NVG? https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/mike-postle-cheating-allegations-faq-first-post-1753388/i forgot all about NVG.......always such a shitshow over there. it's true, there's nothing like a juicy controversy to re-kindle interest like that. i wasted a whole day digging through all the videos when i heard about it. and once you do that, you just gotta play some cards.
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Steamtyme
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May 20, 2020, 07:17:11 PM |
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Yes sorry i must have forgot to "attach it". Yeah that was the best thread I found that had most of the relevant info updated.
It was a funny read that's for sure. It's funny I'm not a big fan of 2+2 forum, so that was part of the motivation for starting my poker talk here lol. I did get a kick out of reading through the thread, people are funny creatures lol
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wwzsocki (OP)
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May 25, 2020, 03:05:05 PM |
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When we are waiting for a hand to discuss, I will share with you that in the last weeks, I have totally no luck in playing poker. I lost almost half of my bankroll, only in two weeks. I see that I keep getting trash all the time, literally yesterday I got only one time AA, when I was playing on 4 tables, 3 hours long and I lost all in with KK. Of course, I wasn't the one pushing all in to be more fun. I get sometimes suited connectors like 5,6 or 8,9 but mostly trash like Q3o, K2o or 92. It is just insane when I see other players showing QQ, AA, AK, AJ, JJ every second hand, but I also remember times when I was so lucky and got the highest cards 9 times in a row, winning a couple of all-ins with overwhelmed opponents. Still, even if you can play it is just hard to not lose with such shitty hands, or you have to be Apostel in god mode, to win each time with nothing . I tried to wait a few days, changed the room, played fewer tables, more, nothing helps. Yesterday, I started to count and I got one decent hand in 88, which was this unlucky AA where I lost with KK, when the third K hit the board, of course on the river. That was the only good hand from the starting 5% range and I see that happens every day. I keep sitting and folding all the time and even if I have something, then nobody will play with me when I raise even slightly or everybody folds when I am on BB with a strong hand. It is just insane and makes me mad lately. I know that when I start to play too many shitty hands, I will lose my bankroll finally, but if you get only these types of hands, finally you will start to defend blinds or just play because everybody is checking/folding before you and lose in the end with a higher second card, pair or flush. I wonder what you are doing when such a time comes, that it is obvious that the luck is not on your site?
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figmentofmyass
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May 26, 2020, 07:00:06 AM |
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I tried to wait a few days, changed the room, played fewer tables, more, nothing helps. Yesterday, I started to count and I got one decent hand in 88, which was this unlucky AA where I lost with KK, when the third K hit the board, of course on the river. That was the only good hand from the starting 5% range and I see that happens every day.
I keep sitting and folding all the time and even if I have something, then nobody will play with me when I raise even slightly or everybody folds when I am on BB with a strong hand. It is just insane and makes me mad lately. I know that when I start to play too many shitty hands, I will lose my bankroll finally, but if you get only these types of hands, finally you will start to defend blinds or just play because everybody is checking/folding before you and lose in the end with a higher second card, pair or flush.
I wonder what you are doing when such a time comes, that it is obvious that the luck is not on your site?
you're not alone. you've basically just described my last 3 weeks---card dead, turn/river suckouts when i do actually have it, and some coolers like set over set for good measure. i generally just play through it, knowing that it's just the nasty side of variance and will even out over the long run. if it starts tilting me at the tables, i take a few days off. there is not much else you can do.......
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famososMuertos
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LE ☮︎ Halving es la purga
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May 28, 2020, 02:57:32 AM |
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....+
I wonder what you are doing when such a time comes, that it is obvious that the luck is not on your site?
There is something that you should not lose when you already have some experience in poker, and it is your bankroll, if this happens you are playing outside of bankroll, that is intrinsically related to your game, the reality is that one should not bother losing 100 hands in a row, but if that loss affects your banking it is a big problem. There is something in poker that is the "correct move" regardless of the negative outcome and a good example is the OP's hand, in fact the evaluation made by the player who had K3 is correct. As he mentions is HUH and the range of hands changes, you can't play the same opening ranges at a 6 player short table or a 9 player long table. He is comfortable with his analysis and that is what is really important, although as always there is subjectivity in the analysis of hands, but in this case I am sure that many of us will share that the hand played well, the punctual result is bad, but the long term will bring profits. Now, the long term with ROI in green is governed by the dictator called variance, in my case I measure my ROI every 20,000 hands and if things go wrong what I do is play another modality and forget about the Holdem for a few days. _______ Thanks for the thread I was really surprised that there were no more threads dedicated to Poker and especially to NLH.
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figmentofmyass
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May 28, 2020, 09:43:36 AM |
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There is something in poker that is the "correct move" regardless of the negative outcome and a good example is the OP's hand, in fact the evaluation made by the player who had K3 is correct. +1, just a high variance hand, but should be profitable over the long run. @BitcoinGirl.Club was a 60-40 favorite, and i think his play was solid considering villain's possible range---namely KX, flushes, and flush draws on the flop. the tough thing about poker is we're forced to make decisions on large pots with wide odds. even if you consistently make the right move, you're gonna lose a lot of big hands. even if we give @BitcoinGirl.Club an extra 5-10% chance based on fold equity since he shoved into villain, that's still losing 30-35% of the time. Thanks for the thread I was really surprised that there were no more threads dedicated to Poker and especially to NLH.
another thread for you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214582.0we also have a forum NLHE league. check it out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5245365.0
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