Is it possible that number of miners will decrease for a while?

[7788bitcoin]

~snip
Not only the small farms will be affected on this halving, but we can also say the miners will get the half of the reward while the energy cost is the same, this factor will make a lot of miners inefficient, and it will be cheaper to turn them off than pay from your pocket the maintenance cost.

I am expecting some miners shutting down the machines until the price starts rallying, but i am not certain about the break even point for miners for them to shell out money from their pocket, suppose the break even is not that great most of them will wait till the market moves higher, but big farm houses does not usually cares about having minor losses as they are certain that the market would bounce like it used to do in the past.

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[htsy585]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

I'm pretty sure there will be a decline in the number of miners as the mining industry players have been complaining for long about low profit earnings for so long owing to the fact that the resources requirement for minig  is costlier than the profit yield margin and that's why we've seen mining turn to such a bit monopolized market by mining giant companies. So getting half reward without any price increase to the value of bitcoin will surely make a lot of miners abandon mining

[MCobian]

That's right a few miners will leave mining, because the rewards are reduced while the cost is still same. Make mining not profitable anymore.
This is very heavy for small miners who before halving profits are small, for big miners there may be some that are still running. Actually, if the
price of bitcoin can rise dramatically, the rewards obtained can cover costs. Then small miners can survive. The problem is now the price of bitcoin
hasn't gone up and it still looks stable.

[xSkylarx]

Those who have a small number of miners might be forced to stop mining since the block reward had been reduced by two. Mining will not be sustainable if you will have a small number of miners, so I guess those who have big farms will only be left mining bitcoin. A huge decline on the number of miners is possible to occur.

[marcayden]

Believe most expert opinions out there points to a few observable trends and predictions:

1) Mining operations will fall after the halvening (some reports has indicated around 30% has already shuttered - especially those on older antminers)
2) For mining operations to continue, the price needs to be stable at above US$10,000, or thereabouts, depending on other factors below
3) Mining operations using newer equipment (that has lower wattage use and a larger hashing rate) would be able to make a profit (albeit smaller now)
4) Mining operators would be forced to join resources to spread out liabilities and risks (Especially when it heads towards subsequent halvening)
5) Mining operators in countries with low electricity cost, high security, and minimal government intervention will survive
6) Probably only if technology progresses quickly enough would there be opportunity for mining operations to thrive
7) Government subsidies (if any) also poses an avenue for mining operations to survive
In the future (not too far from now), when all the bitcoins are mined, all operations will seize/close down except for the largest mining pool to process transactions (by then, with the monopoly in place, transaction fees will be high)

The good news is, as we continue to mine, the BTC prices will fluctuate less, and the rarity factor will soon make the price rise due to demand and hopefully attain its full market capitalization potential.

[Latviand]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

There is high possibility of it happening. Mining is a costly business to start and it also needs a good amount of recurring cost to maintain. So if bitcoin price isn't increasing now, a lot of small miners will be forced to leave mining because it will be cheaper for them to buy bitcoins from the market instead of mining it.

However, we haven't seen any signs of it. Let's keep a close watch on the situation. It seems bitcoin won't disappoint the miners.

Probably it is possible because we all know that mining is much more expensive compared to the bitcoin's price that can be cheaper due to the halving effect. Many miners will surely invest in using crypto instead of mining because the incentives are also important. It will not be profitable for them as they see that costs in mining will become more higher compared to the mining costs before halving. It will surely give you lesser amount of profit and that will make you lose the advantages of mining. I know that many former miners will invest in bitcoins because they will see that it is much more profitable than mining. That's a good option and choice to do, investing in cryptocurrency will really make you more comfortable with your business and work.

[franky1]

if you imageing the hashrate as
140exa|/\/\/\/\
080exa|XXXXX
000exa|XXXXX

the group of variable miners at ~90-140exa(/\) are the hobby miners that only mine when its profitable. they bought equipment at retail prices and pay domestic electric prices
the group of fixed miners at 0-80exa(X) are the mining farms. they always mine no matter what. they create miners at wholesale/manufacturing price and buy electric allocations in bulk from the grid cheaper.

if we start to see the hashrate drop below 80-90exa then that means even the mining farmers cant cope.. i dont see that happening. they already paid their bills so they can last a lot longer until their next contract(facility lease and electric auction) so i dont see it dropping below 80xa again.
they after all have to mine. as the electric costs are already paid for and they now have to mine to be able to stock up on coins to buy the next years batch

hobby miners however have to mine to instantly sell to pay their weekly/monthly bills. so they will always be more variable and more reactive

[Debonaire217]

Mining might not be so profitable for some miners now after halving so it's likely to happen.

Perhaps, if they are still getting profits, they will still continue mining, but I am pretty sure that hardware impacts their decisions as well, according to this article: Mining rigs that are old enough, isn't as effective as those that are new, built more efficiently. This means that these mining rigs aren't gaining profit because of the huge consumption of electricity, unless, if there is free electricity. In addition, bitcoin rewards decreases significantly, pushing the miners away and it is really happening.

[ntsdm1]

The reward given to miners will be divided into two that is, Miners used to get rewarded with 12.5 BTC but this time it will be 6.3 BTC so the benefit is low and can discourage some low-level miners that are just new to the business and can't make enough profit out of it. Because of the electricity consumed and the number of mining hardware in their possession. It is sure to know that the people that have been mining consistently will know how to do their plus and minus. This is the third time miners reward is being divided. So people that know the business will still be available while those who are new may not be familiar and leave. Just know that some miners will drop.

Beginners didn’t really join in independently mining. But it is natural that a certain number of miners are likely to turn off.

[Yamifoud]

Mining might not be so profitable for some miners now after halving so it's likely to happen.

Perhaps, if they are still getting profits, they will still continue mining, but I am pretty sure that hardware impacts their decisions as well, according to this article: Mining rigs that are old enough, isn't as effective as those that are new, built more efficiently. This means that these mining rigs aren't gaining profit because of the huge consumption of electricity, unless, if there is free electricity. In addition, bitcoin rewards decreases significantly, pushing the miners away and it is really happening.

And it is a need for them to push through and new mining machine in order (ideally)to survive otherwise, they will lose the competition. It is to find that the more mining industry grows, the more they compete with each other and that who acquire the higher power machine will absolutely get the rewards. But unfortunately, they got the problem with their expense as it possibly will increase.  
If this only the reason to put them on the work, those small scale miners will collapse.  

[Casdinyard]

Mining might not be so profitable for some miners now after halving so it's likely to happen.

Perhaps, if they are still getting profits, they will still continue mining, but I am pretty sure that hardware impacts their decisions as well, according to this article: Mining rigs that are old enough, isn't as effective as those that are new, built more efficiently. This means that these mining rigs aren't gaining profit because of the huge consumption of electricity, unless, if there is free electricity. In addition, bitcoin rewards decreases significantly, pushing the miners away and it is really happening.

Mining with a less block than usual is going to rip off the small miners, they cannot run simultaneously with the bigger ones that has a latest devices for mining. What the new hardware for mining has an added energy consuming efficiency which is needed right now because of a high electricity rates that we have. I don't think from now on, there are still small miners that is mining bitcoin or they are still trying and testing so they can calculate the expenses and generated income.

[FanEagle]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

Maybe that would happen, or maybe it will not. The price has been going up recently after the halving, and if it should increase, then the miners will continue with their mining and be able to cover up for their expenses.

When there will be a problem is if the price should keep declining instead of increasing, then a lot of miners will have to quit and wait till things get better before they will get back. And if these miners should drop out, it might have some effect on the cryptocurrency market and the price might fall. I don't really hope for that to happen.

[Kakal]

With the recent halving of block rewards, the incentive will be lower than previous for miner. On the other hand, the cost for them will still be same which may not be profitable for a while (I'm not sure about this). If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

Generally majority has that perception that the halving will affect the reward and also believed that most miners will drop for a while but with my observation and the current rise in the price of Bitcoin, I doubt if the halving will have that much effect on miners as the price of Bitcoin recently is encouraging and majority will still stick to mining

[Leviathan.007]

Yes, it's totally possible.
Because of the halving, the reward after each block is highly decreased. Too many Bitcoin miners will leave the mining world completely and some others will wait for the new devices. that's why number of miners will decrease temporary and just for a while. However after the release of new generation devices they will come back.

[thesmallgod]

Theoretically, The number of miners will decrease. The reason is because when you own a mining farm as a business but you discover that your profit is far less than your expenditure, It is either you shutdown the business or look for a way to lessen your expenditure in such a way that your profit is greater than your expenditure. Decreasing miners reward will make some of them stop mining and venture into another business or look for a way to further reduce the cost. For instance, using renewable energy to generate electricity to mitigate electricity cost. This thread here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=14.0 will further enlightened you about some of the challenges the miners are facing especially at this moment

[Renampun]

if the price continues to be at this time, the Bitcoin miner will decrease...
the division of the reduced reward block is not good for small miners. and actually a small Bitcoin miner doesn't need to bother thinking about this, all they have to do is change the coins they mine and their problems are over cmiiw.

[bearexin]

If it is true, is it possible that some miners will just leave mining for a while until they get back in a equilibrium or in profit? What fo you think?

Yes man that's true. If the price doesn't increase, then the space won't accommodate small miners who can't keep up with the expenses of mining. I even read an article that some old miners are no longer able to mine Bitcoin, which means that the miners will have to throw those away, because they are now a piece of junk. When these miners drop out it might affect the market a little bit, the price will drop to an extent, and when demand starts increasing again then it will go up and be able to cover up the expenses for these miners.

I don't think it's likely for bitcoin to rise in price in the short term.

Anything may happen. As of now, new people who think about starting mining business, might go for buying bitcoins rather than mining. Existing miners may go for cost cutting like they may not sell more number of rewarded bitcoins but only the rewards which will cover their running costs of mining process. So, everything may work in the same direction which means rise of bitcoin prices in very short periods.

[larus]

If we are describing normal situation (not a china mining ban or maybe cataclysm) i dont think that we can see significant miners quantity drop. They will rather swtich to another currency

[so98nn]

Oh it's definitely possible, probably until the price goes high enough for bitcoin to be worth mining again. Especially for the small-time miners who has significantly slimmer profit margins compared to the big-time miners. In fact, this is what I assume will happen as it's the most likely one in my opinion. I don't think it's likely for bitcoin to rise in price in the short term.

That’s the whole point here. Halving is not first time now and miners already know how they can get the profits, by waiting and turning the purchase-to-cost ratio upside down.

For small miners this is the only option and for mega miners they will survive with block reward itself considering the high value of btc right now.

[joinfree]

Most likely this is going to be so in the future unless the price of Bitcoin is really soaring to make it still valuable to mine bitcoins. The cost involve needed to set up a mining rig is very high and if the price of bitcoin does not move along with it in the future some miners would definitely have to drop out since they can't keep up with the cost involved.