why does the price keep falling?

[jamesc760]

"I've been watching the live trades on Bitstamp for about ten minutes, about ten minutes ago. There are some interesting patterns.
Someone is managing to shift an awful lot of coins at $573. Every time the stock of coins available at 573 got low, another 30 would be added, and occasionally 50. This is repeatedly happening, soaking up all of the demand, selling a large position without being too obvious about it."

MK trying to launder his ill-gotten coins...

[Bonam]

The market response to news is generally something that happens very quickly, within seconds on active/liquid markets and probably within an hour with bitcoin markets. A slow trend in price over many hours/days/weeks cannot be attributed to a single news item (such as the false China bitcoin ban).

[Cassius]

3600 bitcoins created out of thin air everyday. At $575 This is $2million.

What is difficult to comprehend here?

Miners currently enjoy obscene profit margins, while providing no value.

70k transactions per day occuring. $30 per transaction going to the miners.

From this we can estimate maybe 5000-24000 daily active users. Each user is essentially being charged $400 to $180 per useage of the network. This is being absorbed by all users.

There is not enough demand in the system to absorb the coins being conjured up out of nothing. Miner's are rent seeking, and worst of all this rent seeking is more and more concentrated as elite miners dominate the network.

Hello Lord Trollmore.
How many threads are you going to bang this drum on?
Let us know when someone starts listening. Or, preferably, not.

You don't like fact? Miners will keep selling as they are enjoying record margins. Sorry you are angry and don't understand bad economic incentives.

Er, uh?
I think what you're saying is that supply and demand affect prices. Most of us on this forum know this already and have seen it happen quite a lot before.
Whilst this is a fact, it's curious that you feel the need to create an account to tell us about it.

[teukon]

The current bear market is primarily a correction to November 2013's insane hype bubble.  If you analyse the current wave of FUD you'll notice that most of the complaints about Bitcoin are akin to "I thought Bitcoin automatically gave me immortality and the abilitiy to travel through time".

[softron]

Seems bad news always brings price down

[mp420]

Price keeps falling because at these prices there's more supply than demand.

This is a tautology really, but it's true. For whatever reason, there's more money overall wanting out of Bitcoin than wanting in at this price level.

[thedarksun]

It's not about bad news, it's just that bitcoin is overpriced at the moment. Take into account all the new altcoins, it's only logical that bitcoin would lose ground to other coins. We have been in decline since december, that's four months now. Bitcoin will continue to be the most expensive coin yes, but will we ever see 1000 dollars again?
No, highly unlikely.

[mikenz]

Nothing is up. We are simply approaching the end of wave C slowly. Expect bottom at 300-320 USD within the next weeks(ATL:1/4 of ATH as seen in apr-jul 13).

[Zule]

Price keeps falling because at these prices there's more supply than demand.

This is a tautology really, but it's true. For whatever reason, there's more money overall wanting out of Bitcoin than wanting in at this price level.

I thing that the OP knows this, its obvious. But the question remains why are the people backing out.

[XxionxX]

3600 bitcoins created out of thin air everyday. At $575 This is $2million.

What is difficult to comprehend here?

Miners currently enjoy obscene profit margins, while providing no value.

70k transactions per day occuring. $30 per transaction going to the miners.

From this we can estimate maybe 5000-24000 daily active users. Each user is essentially being charged $400 to $180 per useage of the network. This is being absorbed by all users.

There is not enough demand in the system to absorb the coins being conjured up out of nothing. Miner's are rent seeking, and worst of all this rent seeking is more and more concentrated as elite miners dominate the network.

Hello Lord Trollmore.
How many threads are you going to bang this drum on?
Let us know when someone starts listening. Or, preferably, not.

You don't like fact? Miners will keep selling as they are enjoying record margins. Sorry you are angry and don't understand bad economic incentives.

Er, uh?
I think what you're saying is that supply and demand affect prices. Most of us on this forum know this already and have seen it happen quite a lot before.
Whilst this is a fact, it's curious that you feel the need to create an account to tell us about it.

Sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how much money I'm making. It is truly awful that I have profits in literally all investments I have made related to bitcoin. Granted some have done better than others. But I have bitcoin to thank for all the gains I have made. Period.

The price could fall to 0 and I would still love bitcoin. Bitcoin is the prodigy child I never had.

Your point about inflation and valueless transaction processing is so false it's almost a lie. Your attempt at trolling is limp at best. Sometimes I wonder how such inept trolling is satisfying. But I guess understanding bitcoin is hard and random comments are easier to manufacture.

At least troll about transaction malleability issues or how Austrian economics is flawed. Heck, even trolling about the volume would suffice.

Please do us all a service and challenge us with real issues.

[zhangweiwu]

Yee right, well hard to say at this moment but it's probably about chinese banks blocked btc, this is probably the reason.
Let's just wait for more details.

22th March (today), People's Bank of China announces that they did not announce a ban on Bitcoin, disprooving previous rumor, but, notice this: price did not rebounce following this announcement. If you ask me, I'd say market sentiment plays a more important role.

[dynodog]

IMO, after gox, all momentum in bitcoin was lost.  The problem is that the general public who had been wading into bitcoin and which was curious about it, became scared.  When you balance the risk the public sees with bitcoin vs. the benefit they get from owning it, the risk is too high.  As a result, no new money is coming into bitcoin - it's that simple I think, and I believe it may never come back.  

The price will simply grind down to a much lower level bc there simply aren't the needed buyers, and the miners who mine 3600 new bitcoin every day have to cover overhead and they will always be selling.  When there are more sellers than buyers = lower price.  (I think that major miners had been holding off selling after gox to keep the imagine of bitcoin up, and I think there were some major players who tried to prop up the price for a while for the same obvious reason).  But the confidence in bitcoin is gone and it is not coming back except for the hard core bitcoiners (of which I had been one prior to gox's collapse).

[zhangweiwu]

IMO, after gox, all momentum in bitcoin was lost.  The problem is that the general public who had been wading into bitcoin and which was curious about it, became scared.  When you balance the risk the public sees with bitcoin vs. the benefit they get from owning it, the risk is too high.  As a result, no new money is coming into bitcoin - it's that simple I think, and I believe it may never come back.  

The price will simply grind down to a much lower level bc there simply aren't the needed buyers, and the miners who mine 3600 new bitcoin every day have to cover overhead and they will always be selling.  When there are more sellers than buyers = lower price.  (I think that major miners had been holding off selling after gox to keep the imagine of bitcoin up, and I think there were some major players who tried to prop up the price for a while for the same obvious reason).  But the confidence in bitcoin is gone and it is not coming back except for the hard core bitcoiners (of which I had been one prior to gox's collapse).

That still doesn't explain why the recnet downward trend happens in late March, not early March.

Do you think the majority takes a full month to chow the MtGox fiasco and decided to quit now? This timing makes little sense to me.

You said miners caused it. If after MtGox everybody are holding or buyers/sellers reaches an equilibirum, and miners are causing disturbance, then the support should be the cost of power, because miners who are holding tends to refuse to recognize the lose. According to seriouscoin's recent post: "Buying a mining gear at current exchange rate, you will have very little chance to BREAK EVEN". So I doubt miners are asserting downward pressure. Besides, this "miners did it" execuse can be used any time to reason a fall, it is just too convenient to be true.

The current bear market is primarily a correction to November 2013's insane hype bubble.  If you analyse the current wave of FUD you'll notice that most of the complaints about Bitcoin are akin to "I thought Bitcoin automatically gave me immortality and the abilitiy to travel through time".

Why the correciton doesn't dub with the MtGox fall, late Feb and early March? It should, IMHO. I consider that if a correction has to happen, it tends to do so at the bad news, and MtGox is a very bad one.

[akujin]

It went up because of btcchina and huobi's ltc pump and dump  
Now that ltc hype is over, it's going back down to were it should be... hahaha

without the ltc pump, the chart should have been like this:

[zhangweiwu]

It went up because of btcchina and huobi's ltc pump and dump  
Now that ltc hype is over, it's going back down to were it should be... hahaha

The value of a LTC fell from 19th's 0.032BTC to today's 0.0275BTC. So let's say people lose faith in LTC RELATIVE TO BTC. That means wealth is being transfered from LTC to BTC or from LTC to fiat, and NOT evincing BTC-to-fiat transfer. I should see BTC price be boosted instead!

In fact, I think LTC simply amplifies the volatility of Bitcoin. Bitcoin investors are weathered, LTC investors are twitchy, thus whenever BTC falls you should see LTC falls even harder. When Bitcoin price drops to unexpected low and you didn't reserve cash to catch the bottom, simply convert you bitcoins to LTC, and conver them back later.

[disclaimer201]

This type of argument comes up whenever the price goes down. It's wrong.

The few thousand new coins that miners create have little to nothing to do anymore with prices in 2014. It stopped being relevant shortly after the reward halving, meaning the amount of coins already in the market is now the major factor for price development. Even if every single one of the 3600 coins would be sold every day, it would not affect the price. It used to be that way when much more coins were created and much fewer coins were in the market. Not anymore.
Large holders or many holders are selling, not necessarily the miners.


The MtGox debacle is mainly responsible and the story that perhaps without Karpeles' bot and his fractional reserve system (for years) the actual price of Bitcoin would have never gone up from 20 Dollars to 266 in March 2013. So, it is news based that is the worst FUD there could be, namely actual uncertainty about Bitcoin's price development over the past 2 years. Was Bitcoin ever really "worth" more than 20 dollars, or 50, or 100? This is what the market adjusts to now. And the downtrend is no surprise even if people still believe in Bitcoin.

As Bitcoin becomes less of a new thing for wider audiences and reaches more and more adoption with small businesses, and regulation later this year will allow Wall Street to get in (and get in cheaply) the price will inevitably rise to enormous levels. None of this price change will happen in 2014 though.

[zhangweiwu]

The MtGox debacle is mainly responsible and the story that perhaps without Karpeles' bot and his fractional reserve system (for years) the actual price of Bitcoin would have never gone up from 20 Dollars to 266 in March 2013. So, it is news based that is the worst FUD there could be, namely actual uncertainty about Bitcoin's price development over the past 2 years.

Suppose people believe Karpeles has been runing fractional reserve, these people would think MtGox actually have caused inflation, because some of the coins Mark doesn't have are being circulated in the system. Such people should expect price boost after inflaction removed.

One possibility is: people are slowly undersanding what MtGox fiasco means. I don't think so, but I am short of sound reasons.

As Bitcoin becomes less of a new thing for wider audiences and reaches more and more adoption with small businesses, and regulation later this year will allow Wall Street to get in (and get in cheaply) the price will inevitably rise to enormous levels. None of this price change will happen in 2014 though.

I learned things inbitcoin world happens faster than you can prepare. I would still think 2014 is a good year.

[akujin]

It went up because of btcchina and huobi's ltc pump and dump 
Now that ltc hype is over, it's going back down to were it should be... hahaha

The value of a LTC fell from 19th's 0.032BTC to today's 0.0275BTC. So let's say people lose faith in LTC RELATIVE TO BTC. That means wealth is being transfered from LTC to BTC or from LTC to fiat, and NOT evincing BTC-to-fiat transfer. I should see BTC price be boosted instead!

I wasn't on QQ for a week and a bit of untouched with market sentiment. But BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC.

btcchina added ltc at march 4 if I remember it correctly. Then huobi announced about ltc at around march 12 then added ltc at march 19.



See the price at around march 3? Btcchina surprised everyone by adding ltc.. I could see the btcchina insiders crashing the ltc price down before  the pump. Then ltc got pumped, people thought it's about to go up because everyone expects a trend reversal and excited about btc going to $1000+..  so they panic bought btc thinking it's cheap because of the ltc/btc ratio and some thought btc is going to the moon
Why btc didn't follow ltc when huobi announced ltc? because altcoins usually follow btc and not btc following altcoins. So btc continued going sideways then down.
So after the huobi pump. Ltc followed btc 

Why btc is falling now? Because there's no reason for it to go up in the first place.
 

[zhangweiwu]

You made your point really clear with picture. Here I challange it: You ascribe the 3rd March peak to BtcChina's announcing LTC. If my theory that LTC speculators are more twitchy is correct, then any sudden rise of bitcoin is going to emplify in LTC. So the LTC peak can be reasoned by the BTC peak. And why BTC peak? I don't think it is due to BtcChina announcing LTC at all. -- Unless you have another graph more detailed showing LTC peaked first - in that case I'll rethink - but I am a bad TA and doesn't know how to operate bitcoinwisdom.

I wasn't on QQ for a week and a bit of untouched with market sentiment. But BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC.

btcchina added ltc at march 4 if I remember it correctly. Then huobi announced about ltc at around march 12 then added ltc at march 19.

I said "BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC/CNY market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I am correct to the detail:  "LTC/BTC", not "BTC/LTC". Nevertheless, LTC/BTC was paltry, so I removed the sentance after post - not that anything was incorrect.

[akujin]

You made your point really clear with picture. Here I challange it: You ascribe the 3rd March peak to BtcChina's announcing LTC. If my theory that LTC speculators are more twitchy is correct, then any sudden rise of bitcoin is going to emplify in LTC. So the LTC peak can be reasoned by the BTC peak. And why BTC peak? I don't think it is due to BtcChina announcing LTC at all. -- Unless you have another graph more detailed showing LTC peaked first - in that case I'll rethink - but I am a bad TA and doesn't know how to operate bitcoinwisdom.

I wasn't on QQ for a week and a bit of untouched with market sentiment. But BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC.

btcchina added ltc at march 4 if I remember it correctly. Then huobi announced about ltc at around march 12 then added ltc at march 19.

I said "BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC/CNY market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I am correct to the detail:  "LTC/BTC", not "BTC/LTC". Nevertheless, LTC/BTC was paltry, so I removed the sentance after post - not that anything was incorrect.

k.
My reply wasn't meant just for you anyway and I didn't paid much attention on that LTC/BTC part. I just posted a detailed explanation why I think btc price is falling.

The value of a LTC fell from 19th's 0.032BTC to today's 0.0275BTC. So let's say people lose faith in LTC RELATIVE TO BTC. That means wealth is being transfered from LTC to BTC or from LTC to fiat, and NOT evincing BTC-to-fiat transfer. I should see BTC price be boosted instead!

LTC bagholders wanted to cash out on 19th.. LTC to fiat is too low so they convert to BTC.. But BTC is already in a downtrend so what are they going to do? Of course, convert BTC to fiat.

You made your point really clear with picture. Here I challange it: You ascribe the 3rd March peak to BtcChina's announcing LTC. If my theory that LTC speculators are more twitchy is correct, then any sudden rise of bitcoin is going to emplify in LTC. So the LTC peak can be reasoned by the BTC peak. And why BTC peak? I don't think it is due to BtcChina announcing LTC at all. -- Unless you have another graph more detailed showing LTC peaked first - in that case I'll rethink - but I am a bad TA and doesn't know how to operate bitcoinwisdom.

What peak? You mean the bottom peak on march 3 before it rose? Or the top peak of the pump at march 4 after btcchina announced ltc? It's hard to check at bitcoinwisdom because I can't zoom any further.
I'm not sure when was the exact time BTCchina announced LTC or when insiders started to spread the news so I don't have any more info.
Just ask yourself if you remember any big news for BTC to get pumped that much on march 3-4.



From the chart, I could see that LTC got manipulated first to drop the price. Since LTC price is so low, seeing LTC rise so much could have triggered the BTC panic buyers who are expecting trend reversal because of the sideways movement and also those buying BTC to convert to LTC then fiat for profit.