China US Trade war next level

[IIV]

US wants Huawei to make everything themselves, they restricts it's access to TSMC and Qualcom.

https://www.soyacincau.com/2020/05/17/us-government-tsmc-restrict-semiconductor-sales-huawei-hisilicon-kirin/

China thinks of retaliation by cutting ties with apple, cisco and boeing.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-15/China-to-put-U-S-firms-including-Apple-on-unreliable-list-QwbxVNZ6Xm/index.html


The ban maybe successful in slowing down 5G adoption in China but with current circumstances, China seem to be getting stronger while US fights to open up business.

[DireWolfM14]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

[squatz1]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Would have to agree with this. China relies on US consumers a lot more then US consumers rely on China. In a worst case scenario, where a large majority of manufacturing moved out of china, a large amount of other south east asian countries would be able to pick up the brunt of it -- maybe not instantly, but within a year or two. In the mean time, American manufacturing would have to step up.

Would stuff be more expensive for sometime, and then normalize? Yes.

Would this hurt the US economy? Yes. Consumers paying more for goods and companies not being as profitable is going to hurt.

Will this hurt China more in the long run? Totally. They'd be losing an integral market and US companies / US national security wouldn't want to risk having too much US enterprise in China again. They'd probably incentivize manufacturing being done at home or in allied nations for this very purpose -- to ensure that a shock like this doesn't happen.

China knows all of this though, and they're not going to fuck around.

[Juggy777]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Would have to agree with this. China relies on US consumers a lot more then US consumers rely on China. In a worst case scenario, where a large majority of manufacturing moved out of china, a large amount of other south east asian countries would be able to pick up the brunt of it -- maybe not instantly, but within a year or two. In the mean time, American manufacturing would have to step up.

Would stuff be more expensive for sometime, and then normalize? Yes.

Would this hurt the US economy? Yes. Consumers paying more for goods and companies not being as profitable is going to hurt.

Will this hurt China more in the long run? Totally. They'd be losing an integral market and US companies / US national security wouldn't want to risk having too much US enterprise in China again. They'd probably incentivize manufacturing being done at home or in allied nations for this very purpose -- to ensure that a shock like this doesn't happen.

China knows all of this though, and they're not going to fuck around.

@DireWolfM14 of course China knows that they stand to loose more if trade war escalates with USA again, but at the same time Xi has to put on a strong face and assure the Chinese citizens that they’re winning the battle otherwise people will start questioning his authority, and he doesn’t like his authority being questioned. @squatz1 it’s not just the US companies who’re looking to exit China, as many foreign companies too are planning to move out of China, hence China must do everything in their power to retain Apple, and failure to do so will have a negative impact on their economy in the long run.

Sources:

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/1000-foreign-firms-mull-production-in-india-300-actively-pursue-plan-as-exit-china-mantra-grows/story/401462.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-shows-us-companies-are-definitely-leaving-china/#1b52ffc140fe

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/paramount-and-paranoid-chinas-xi-faces-a-crisis-of-confidence/2019/08/02/39f77f2a-aa30-11e9-8733-48c87235f396_story.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/pandemic-speeds-up-iphone-makers-plans-to-exit-china

[franky1]

doesnt matter if china make 200million chips (one each for a iphone device) for under $1 a piece. or they make something else to get their under $1..
china knows how to make and adapt quickly. where it takes america a couple months. china can do in a week.
so they can adapt.
however america would need to create new factories. train new staff which would affect business for a while.
heck america wil probably end up buying the tooling machines and robot arms and conveyor belts from china to fit america's new facilities.
this is china actual power. speed/efficiency.
america pretend they can 'just go elsewhere'. but the delay/price/speed will hurt america more than the loss of a few dollars america gives china for a particular product

america sell maybe a couple hundred million units of iphone in america. but china make billions of different devices. iphones for america is actually a small percentage of the electronics industry.

its actually much easier for china to make their own semiconductors. than it is for america to make their own chips

[madnessteat]

I totally agree. It is not so easy to transfer all production from China to the U.S. and start the whole cycle of production of something on its territory.

Besides the fact that in China one of the cheapest workers they spit on the patent system and tomorrow they can easily start production of almost any product bought in the USA.

[BADecker]

^^^ I don't know about that. It didn't take long for USA people to lockdown/shutdown. Once they realize that there isn't any food coming in to the grocery stores, they can start moving pretty fast. Several States, including Arizona, have plenty of beef on the hoof that can be had for a little work. It will be enough to tide them over until next year's crops come in.

And the rest of things the same. Just think about how fast America got moving in WW2 times, when entering the war.

[madnessteat]

~And the rest of things the same. Just think about how fast America got moving in WW2 times, when entering the war.

It is difficult for me to judge how much America did during World War II, as many history textbooks have been rewritten many times since then. The recent White House tweet about the USSR's involvement in World War II was forgotten (https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1258842411524132865). But it was the Soviet people who lost the most in this war and contributed the most to this victory.

[BADecker]

~And the rest of things the same. Just think about how fast America got moving in WW2 times, when entering the war.

It is difficult for me to judge how much America did during World War II, as many history textbooks have been rewritten many times since then. The recent White House tweet about the USSR's involvement in World War II was forgotten (https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1258842411524132865). But it was the Soviet people who lost the most in this war and contributed the most to this victory.

Of course, anybody that has looked at it, has found that Stalin killed more of his own people than Hitler could have dreamed of killing.

[squatz1]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Would have to agree with this. China relies on US consumers a lot more then US consumers rely on China. In a worst case scenario, where a large majority of manufacturing moved out of china, a large amount of other south east asian countries would be able to pick up the brunt of it -- maybe not instantly, but within a year or two. In the mean time, American manufacturing would have to step up.

Would stuff be more expensive for sometime, and then normalize? Yes.

Would this hurt the US economy? Yes. Consumers paying more for goods and companies not being as profitable is going to hurt.

Will this hurt China more in the long run? Totally. They'd be losing an integral market and US companies / US national security wouldn't want to risk having too much US enterprise in China again. They'd probably incentivize manufacturing being done at home or in allied nations for this very purpose -- to ensure that a shock like this doesn't happen.

China knows all of this though, and they're not going to fuck around.

@DireWolfM14 of course China knows that they stand to loose more if trade war escalates with USA again, but at the same time Xi has to put on a strong face and assure the Chinese citizens that they’re winning the battle otherwise people will start questioning his authority, and he doesn’t like his authority being questioned. @squatz1 it’s not just the US companies who’re looking to exit China, as many foreign companies too are planning to move out of China, hence China must do everything in their power to retain Apple, and failure to do so will have a negative impact on their economy in the long run.

Sources:

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/1000-foreign-firms-mull-production-in-india-300-actively-pursue-plan-as-exit-china-mantra-grows/story/401462.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-shows-us-companies-are-definitely-leaving-china/#1b52ffc140fe

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/paramount-and-paranoid-chinas-xi-faces-a-crisis-of-confidence/2019/08/02/39f77f2a-aa30-11e9-8733-48c87235f396_story.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/pandemic-speeds-up-iphone-makers-plans-to-exit-china

You're right on the Xi having to put on a strong face thing, it's the same thing that Putin does. These leaders (we can just call them dictators) can't look weak in global negotiations or they're going to fall, which is why they continue to push strong man arguments in public while their negotiators behind the scenes aren't doing the same thing. Kinda helps when you have state run media (in both countries) rooting for you and making it look like whatever you do is you being a strong leader.

China is going to get hurt if this escalates, we can just leave it at that.

[TECSHARE]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Almost like they benefited from the over reaching domestic policy put in place, if only temporarily isn't it?

[DireWolfM14]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Almost like they benefited from the over reaching domestic policy put in place, if only temporarily isn't it?

What does U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan and Chinese Dictator Xi Jinping have in common?  They both think they just need to biden their time until November!  

[TECSHARE]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

Almost like they benefited from the over reaching domestic policy put in place, if only temporarily isn't it?

What does U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan and Chinese Dictator Xi Jinping have in common?  They both think they just need to biden their time until November!  

Weird, it is almost like you are suggesting there is an element of conspiracy of international organized crime involved with this. You aren't a conspiracy theorist are you?

[DireWolfM14]

You aren't a conspiracy theorist are you?

Lol, you never quite do you?  I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist, no.  But that doesn't mean that I don't believe conspiracies exist.  It also doesn't mean you'll let the discussion we had in the other thread remain in that thread, but I've grown to expect that from you.

[TECSHARE]

You aren't a conspiracy theorist are you?

Lol, you never quite do you?  I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist, no.  But that doesn't mean that I don't believe conspiracies exist.  It also doesn't mean you'll let the discussion we had in the other thread remain in that thread, but I've grown to expect that from you.

Perhaps because it is the same discussion and you have yet to make the connection.

[Vod]

I don't think China is worried about a trade war.   We have nothing they can't make themselves, cheaper and faster.

The 20th century belonged to the US, simply because they were physically isolated and could concentrate on growth instead of defense.

The 21st century belongs to China.  They've pulled 600 million people out of poverty in 20 years.

[DireWolfM14]

You aren't a conspiracy theorist are you?

Lol, you never quite do you?  I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist, no.  But that doesn't mean that I don't believe conspiracies exist.  It also doesn't mean you'll let the discussion we had in the other thread remain in that thread, but I've grown to expect that from you.

Perhaps because it is the same discussion and you have yet to make the connection.

You're the one desperately trying to make a connection, where none exists.  Let me spell it out for you: It's quite possible for me to suspect that the Obama administration conspired to fabricate a crime to pin on Michael Flynn without believing there's some super-secret, uber-powerful, international mafia pulling the strings.  There's reasonable evidence to support the former, but only fantasy supporting the latter.  Despite your efforts to make it appear otherwise, there's no contradiction in my position.

You're like a child who's stubbornly digging in his heals once his argument has been dismissed.  Now you're following me around the P&S board, making off-topic posts in every thread in which I've made a post, desperately trying insinuate a contradiction.

It's not all about you and your ignorant theories.  And, please do keep in mind; I am entitled to disagree with you.

[madnessteat]

I don't think China is worried about a trade war.   We have nothing they can't make themselves, cheaper and faster.

The 20th century belonged to the US, simply because they were physically isolated and could concentrate on growth instead of defense.

The 21st century belongs to China.  They've pulled 600 million people out of poverty in 20 years.

The Chinese have concretely strengthened their position in the world over these 20 years. I was amazed how they were able to almost completely eradicate corruption. I think it played a major role in the country's economic development.

As an outside observer, I think that China has a better chance of winning the trade war with the US.

[TECSHARE]

You're the one desperately trying to make a connection, where none exists.  Let me spell it out for you: It's quite possible for me to suspect that the Obama administration conspired to fabricate a crime to pin on Michael Flynn without believing there's some super-secret, uber-powerful, international mafia pulling the strings.  There's reasonable evidence to support the former, but only fantasy supporting the latter.  Despite your efforts to make it appear otherwise, there's no contradiction in my position.

You're like a child who's stubbornly digging in his heals once his argument has been dismissed.  Now you're following me around the P&S board, making off-topic posts in every thread in which I've made a post, desperately trying insinuate a contradiction.

It's not all about you and your ignorant theories.  And, please do keep in mind; I am entitled to disagree with you.

Yes, who ever heard of The Triads, or Chinese tongs right? Certainly just a myth. Mafias certainly aren't secret or powerful, and the CCP certainly isn't a gangster organization. This all is just as much of a myth as all the times the US was sold out for kickbacks under the Obama administration (not to mention the Clintons). After all, them selling out US national security to Chinese interests is unimaginable.

You are entitled to you own opinion. You are not entitled to your own reality.

[Naida_BR]

China might be winning the current "economy battle" as a result of Covid, there's no chance they'll win a trade war with the US, and they know it.  The technology in question is American, but China is not the only country where American companies can manufacture stuff affordably.  Any retaliatory measures the Chinese can take will only cause more damage to their economy in the long run.

China has the upper hand in all instances.
Even if there is an economy battle China is the biggest manufactured-producer in the world so this economic start for all countries is going to make a positive impact at China at first.