A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k

[Gozie51]

Best of luck to bears as well.

I've thought that it would drop to $8000 but it seems like we've just hit the resistance of $8900. I'm also considering that it will still drop and that's inevitable within a few months. Well, if ever the analysis you've made is correct on that estimation you have given, I'll buy.

Hitting a resistance and bouncing out could be risky as tasting can happen again which will look at confirmation. But if price drops to 5,000 which I doubt, I'm also going to buy  .
A correction though is on the way but further 5,000 is rather to lower side. We are on speculation anyway and market price is improving from 5,000 during covid-19 to 10,000 last week.

[kapalmabur]

I understand your analysis and respect it, but thinking of falling to $ 5500 is something that shouldn't happen,
we are still on the Bitcoin bullrun, and will not go to $ 5500

[okala]

Would be insanely stupid to short a bullish asset class during a bull cycle 

I don't see it either.  If BTC goes below $6K, I am selling my car and buying!

Op has said what he or she thinks will happen and from my experience charting do not always work well in cryptocurrencies. I am bullish and if bitcoin get below $7000 I will also buy.

[mahilchii]

Personally I don't think the price will fall so badly, even after Halving we are seeing some great performances from BTC which should be much appreciated.

Just a small drop in the market doesn't mean the price will affect badly, by the way we have experienced such drop in several occasions. Most of them are expecting pump as most of the countries are back from the lockdown and getting back to the normal life so I don't think the price will fall so cheaply..

[Keiser Soze]

Tell 10 different traders to do TA and you're likely to wind up with 15 different answers. Most TA is horseshit, especially for crypto. A trend line is only valid until it's broken, what kind of crap is that? It's like saying "I predict Stock X will continue to go up, until it starts to go down".

[Bossian]

Despite all this talk from the original poster, I want to see him put his money where his mouth is. Actually show proof of him shorting it, with a big chunk from his savings. A lot of traders are monday morning quarterbacks honestly.

Happy?

Why do you feel so suspicious?  

Oh Bossian, you’re always so bearish, I really don’t see it being possible that we fall that low again. I don’t think we’ll ever see a sub $7,000 again in our lifetimes. We’re set to enter the next bull run soon, the bottom has passed.

Not always bearish my friend.

My bearish predictions get noticed more than my bullish predictions. Human nature and nature of this forum.

In December 2019 I posted so many times about a long @6.5k to sell @9k. In March I also recommended to buy @4k to sell @6.5k, saying it was a conservative target. Now with my next move, I am clearly more aggressive but also more confident  

You are right about one thing though, I am usually bullish only in the short term and bearish in the middle term, but I shouldn't be blamed for what the charts say, should I? 2020 is a bearish year overall, not my fault. 2021 who knows?

Op has said what he or she thinks will happen and from my experience charting do not always work well in cryptocurrencies. I am bullish and if bitcoin get below $7000 I will also buy.

In my opinion quite the opposite, Bitcoin is like 95% TA and 5% fundamental, so to speak. Much easier to trade Bitcoin than trade any stock. My opinion.

[fortunecrypto]

Op is answering all the criticism effectively so far so why making a thread a moderated one if you are open to criticism and you can answer all of this, I have suspicion on moderated topic either they are hiding something (applicable to ICO), cannot defend their projection if there are traders
or they do not want spam comment, unlikely because it will be deleted by mods, show your credibility next time by making an open thread. 

[Febo]

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

If China and Europe and USA get second wave then anything is possible. Yes we have thicker skin now but we are out of reserves. Q1 GDP drop was massive. I dont understand how Q2 projections are so good since Europe and USA will be way more drastically hit in Q2 then in Q1.

[leyton11]

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

This corona virus pandemic is really serious. This is an economic virus so opening the economy early is impossible. In countries with low levels of disease impacts, consumers are still affected by living conditions. after the pandemic is under control there will be a lot of debt and a great recession will happen again. You should be careful at this sensitive time.

[mindrust]

The only thing that keeps crypto afloat right now is tether.

They doubled their balance sheets since the big crash.

There is no fucking way I can invest big money again while that abomination keeps growing.

[dominos]

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

Yes, mainly because everybody can look into other interval of the chart, see other patterns, see other trend/triangle lines and have other opinion.
I don't know if it is really good or bad but that's how you see people saying 5,5k, 12k, etc. and other random numbers which are not helping anyone with getting statement where the market is right now.

[casperBGD]

However, even the idea that someone can look at TA and say 5.5k while the other person could look at it and say 100k could very well be enough reason that people either don't know how to use TA at all, or basically it is a proof that TA could be looked from anywhere you want and you could see whatever you want, people could literally draw any conclusion they could want.

Yes, mainly because everybody can look into other interval of the chart, see other patterns, see other trend/triangle lines and have other opinion.
I don't know if it is really good or bad but that's how you see people saying 5,5k, 12k, etc. and other random numbers which are not helping anyone with getting statement where the market is right now.

agree, it depends what chart interval do you look at, i am not an expert in TA, but know that chart interval should be in line with your expectations, if you plan long term investment, you do not need to look at 15 min chart, and what that chart is showing should be irrelevant to you, you should be interested in long term, so daily, or weekly chart, if not monthly should be looked at - and these charts are all showing different lines and goals, because time frame is completely different for daily trader and long term investor (including all steps in-between)

[exstasie]

Tell 10 different traders to do TA and you're likely to wind up with 15 different answers. Most TA is horseshit, especially for crypto. A trend line is only valid until it's broken, what kind of crap is that? It's like saying "I predict Stock X will continue to go up, until it starts to go down".

Markets are unpredictable. Trend trading strategies are a monument to that. They don't pretend to predict the market, they just set concrete metrics to avoid being on the wrong side of the trend.

Case in point, trading the 50-day MA:



You're not catching the top or the bottom but you're hedging against major drawdowns. Shorter term trend lines and faster MAs can act as an early warning sign and net you significantly more profits, at the risk of shaking you out or trapping you when there are false breakouts.

It's all about getting exposure and hedging risks, not so much about being right or wrong. Most traders are wrong quite a lot. With the right risk profile they can still make a lot of money.

[exstasie]

downtrend is still intact

Not even proven yet nevermine intact.   We arent in any ongoing downtrend from last summer as far as Im concerned and so we must form a new trend from here, there is old volume but that always applies and I take that going back to 2018 as some relevance.

In my opinion it's a downtrend until bulls retake $10.5K. I see all lower highs and lower lows since June 2019:



According to Dow Theory, that's a pretty obvious primary downtrend until proven otherwise:

The reversal of a downward primary trend occurs when the market no longer falls to lower lows and highs. This happens when the market establishes a peak that is higher than the previous peak, followed by a trough that is higher than the previous trough, which are the components of an upward trend.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp

Breaking that downward trend is very possible but it's worth pointing out that many bulls (including myself) were prematurely celebrating a new bull market in October 2019 and this past February. Without a break of $10.5K there is significant possible downside from here.

[thecodebear]

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

[Bossian]

Wow. I would laugh hard at anyone trying to short this back to $5k haha, OP must be thinking a brand new global pandemic is gonna hit as this one starts winding down in the next few months. But hey I'd love to see the OP put his money where his mouth is, sure he'll lose a bunch of money but if you're gonna make a ludicrous prediction (and call it obvious no less!) you should follow through with it!

Gotta love when people draw random lines on a chart to say there will be a massive sell off for no reason.

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.



Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.


Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

[Desscount]

if indeed it goes to $ 5500 it looks like I'm ready to buy it, because it's been awaited, I've already missed buying Bitcoin at a price of $ 4000, and I really regret it, now I will wait for it 

[Harriti]

I see no reason for bitcoin to plummet to $ 5k5. The halving event has taken place and the supply is dwindling, people will soon fomo bitcoin and buy it more from around $ 8k5 and $ 8k. In the coming time, the pandemic will be under control and the economy will be back to normal operation. There are too many conditions for bitcoin to grow in the near future. in case of a drop, the price of bitcoin will only stop at $ 8k, after which it will not fall further.

[coinfinger]

Shorting right now doesn't make any sense to me at all, right now price is getting more and more valuable every second and that is why I think its a ticking bomb waiting to go off any moment now. I feel like $15k is a lot more possible than 5k right now since the price may not be changing but value has been increasing a lot. Undervaluing bitcoin has never worked for anyone at any moment. There has been millions of people, thousands of newspapers and tv channels, hundreds of writers and anchors who have repeatedly said that bitcoin will eventually die.

Look where we are now, at 9 thousand dollars per bitcoin and people became millionaires or maybe even billionaires thanks to bitcoin. Halving has happened, we are moving towards higher levels with every single day according to mathematics, unless people go against those mathematics (quite possible of course) which I doubt will happen.

[bitbunnny]

You are predicting an almost identical massive sell off similar to the COVID-19 scare panic dump? It will take some serious FUD for BTC to continue to drop lower than 8k.

The economy is reopening, and the bulls will be back soon.

If China and Europe and USA get second wave then anything is possible. Yes we have thicker skin now but we are out of reserves. Q1 GDP drop was massive. I dont understand how Q2 projections are so good since Europe and USA will be way more drastically hit in Q2 then in Q1.

These are just predictions but they don't need to happen. Also, I think that countries have learned a lot from this pandemic and they will be better prepared for the future. Also, they activated some financial mechanisms that will help them improve situation in Q2 and soften the GDP falll.
It's yet to see if this will be successful but let's hope for the best

As far as Bitcoin is concerned I don't see any possibilities for the moment for such a huge drop, 5500$ isn't realistic value for my point of view. Yes, some corrections are possibilities and will happen but despite that I don't expect such dramatic price fall.