Double bottom @ 3.1k or lower low @ 2k?

[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

$ 3100 and 2100 we will never meet again, it's useless if we wait for it at that low price,
we've entered a bullish wave, don't expect to get a cheap price

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[LogitechMouse]

Any so-called analysts or "expert" analysts can predict whatever they want to predict and that is ok as we are free to predict but not all of them are predicting right especially this one.

Anything is possible with regards to crypto we know that but this scenario where it will reach 3.1k has a chance of around 1-5% only for me as I don't see any signs that this will go down again to these price but as I say anything is possible on it.

The only possible reason that I see is when there is a second wave of the COVID19 that will cause the investors to panic and sell their assets again like what happened last March. I know that some countries are facing the 2nd wave already but some saying it is not. Anyway, lets just hope for the best to all of the countries .

[UnDerDoG81]

2 or 3k is very welcome, even though I am bullish in long term. Have some fiat I want to get rid off before the covid crisis hits.

[gentlemand]

People dream too much and so is the reason view that the price would dump before a big rally. If they stop considering bitcoin as magic way to make money then they will stop having these wild dreams  .

It starts off being what you actually think will happen, then becomes what you want to happen and then you jettison all reason and desire and set your mind on 'it WILL happen' just because you've spent so long nurturing this belief.

We've seen it a million times on here and they almost always balls up and go silent.

They could well be right eventually but the chances are high they're so fixated that they screw up long before the actual event with a premature move. An open mind and willingness to go with the tide is prerequisite for success at this type of thing.

[exstasie]

2 or 3k is very welcome, even though I am bullish in long term. Have some fiat I want to get rid off before the covid crisis hits.

Be careful what you wish for. If the market goes to $3K, there's little doubt in my mind it's going much lower. Too much time has passed and too much accumulation has occurred for a double bottom.

If $3K, then this becomes a decent possibility:

Yes, his target is $771. Triple digits.

I don't think $3K is likely at all however. I'm not worried about that scenario until and unless the market is trading near $5K or below. A Fibonacci retracement that far will be a warning that the March-May bull market has terminated.

[fabiorem]

With the printing machines working ceaselessly, it seems unlikely the price will even touch 5k, let alone 3k.
The more money central banks prints, the more can be used to buy bitcoin, thus increasing the price.

[adaseb]

With the printing machines working ceaselessly, it seems unlikely the price will even touch 5k, let alone 3k.
The more money central banks prints, the more can be used to buy bitcoin, thus increasing the price.

This is not how it works. When banks print money, there is more of it out there and hence prices of goods and services increases like bread and eggs. Also stocks in general should increase since the company needs to charge more for their products, hence higher PE ratio.

Bitcoin is different and doesn't necessarily need to increase. Only reason it "should" increase is because people might buy it to hedge against inflation. However keep in mind that BTC is not cheap at the moment, just like Gold. Hence people might buy other access like real estate in certain areas.

[maydna]

With the printing machines working ceaselessly, it seems unlikely the price will even touch 5k, let alone 3k.

Touch $5k? I would love to wait for that moment because that will be a big discount for everyone, especially if the price continues to go down for $3k. I am sure many people don't want to let the chance to buy bitcoin, whether it's an old bitcoin user or new bitcoin user because if that happens, we might not see that price in the future.

Although it looks impossible to down to $5k or $3k, the bitcoin price can change to any price, and we already knew that. We still see the price is at above $9k even though the trend now is down, but there is a possibility to see the price will go down more.

[davis196]

Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues   unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?



 

Why do you think that the Bitcoin price might crash to 3K USD or below 3K?
Why do you think that both scenarios looks possible?Can you post your analysis here?
It seems to me that you are one of the guys,who just wait for the Bitcoin price to crash badly,so they could start buying cheap Bitcoins.You are too lazy to learn crypto trading and too afraid to take action and buy Bitcoin now,so you just wait.Am I right?
I don't know anything about the "famous analyst masterluc" and I don't know why he is famous.Can you share more of his analysis?

[Bossian]

2 or 3k is very welcome, even though I am bullish in long term. Have some fiat I want to get rid off before the covid crisis hits.

Be careful what you wish for. If the market goes to $3K, there's little doubt in my mind it's going much lower. Too much time has passed and too much accumulation has occurred for a double bottom.

If $3K, then this becomes a decent possibility:

Yes, his target is $771. Triple digits.

I don't think $3K is likely at all however. I'm not worried about that scenario until and unless the market is trading near $5K or below. A Fibonacci retracement that far will be a warning that the March-May bull market has terminated.

Contrary to what many here, I never ruled out the possibility to see Bitcoin at $1000 again, this is still the most important price of Bitcoin history, the price stay belowed $1000 for longer than it stayed above. I don't believe in $771, I haven't taken the time yet to look closely at the chart you posted but I believe $1000 is a very important and very strong support, though there would be huge panic among long time holders, but many newbies would buy at this price.

Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues   unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?



 

Why do you think that the Bitcoin price might crash to 3K USD or below 3K?
Why do you think that both scenarios looks possible?Can you post your analysis here?
It seems to me that you are one of the guys,who just wait for the Bitcoin price to crash badly,so they could start buying cheap Bitcoins.You are too lazy to learn crypto trading and too afraid to take action and buy Bitcoin now,so you just wait.Am I right?
I don't know anything about the "famous analyst masterluc" and I don't know why he is famous.Can you share more of his analysis?

3.1k = double bottom (January 2019).

2.5k is more of a random number, just a lower low.

[slaman29]

It starts off being what you actually think will happen, then becomes what you want to happen and then you jettison all reason and desire and set your mind on 'it WILL happen' just because you've spent so long nurturing this belief.

We've seen it a million times on here and they almost always balls up and go silent.

They could well be right eventually but the chances are high they're so fixated that they screw up long before the actual event with a premature move. An open mind and willingness to go with the tide is prerequisite for success at this type of thing.

And then they come back some of them, waking up dormant accounts after a while, usually when Bitcoin's in its typical down cycle. Or they delete old posts and keep the ones that make them look like a genius.

Told you so! Called it first!

[batang_bitcoin]

$ 3100 and 2100 we will never meet again, it's useless if we wait for it at that low price,
we've entered a bullish wave, don't expect to get a cheap price

I'm counting on it that we will never meet again these prices but I'm not yet sure and confident about that. Because bitcoin's volatility is making everything possible. The month of March wasn't expected to be that bad and we have seen a very low price for this half quarter. I'm this bullish and optimistic for bitcoin but can't remove the fact that any price is still of possibility unless we're actually far from those prices that you have given. Hoping that things will be good for the remaining quarters of this year until we see the real bull run like the 2017.

[fabiorem]

When banks print money, there is more of it out there and hence prices of goods and services increases like bread and eggs. Also stocks in general should increase since the company needs to charge more for their products, hence higher PE ratio.

Bitcoin is correlated with the stock market, so inflation might affect its price as well.

[mapsfly]

When banks print money, there is more of it out there and hence prices of goods and services increases like bread and eggs. Also stocks in general should increase since the company needs to charge more for their products, hence higher PE ratio.

Bitcoin is correlated with the stock market, so inflation might affect its price as well.

It is behaving that way but it SHOULD NOT be correlated fundamentally speaking

[exstasie]

Bitcoin is correlated with the stock market, so inflation might affect its price as well.

It is behaving that way but it SHOULD NOT be correlated fundamentally speaking

Why? Most investors consider them both to be risk assets. In a "flight to safety" scenario like March, investors exit both markets for cash. Both markets also benefit from excess dollar liquidity from QE, stimulus injections, etc.

[nutildah]

How many months do we have to wait before you admit neither scenario was "possible"?

Word of advice: next time you make a poll, include a "neither" option. Your poll is the equivalent to asking the question "what is your favorite color" and then only providing "lime" and "periwinkle" as voting options.

[BrewMaster]

How many months do we have to wait before you admit neither scenario was "possible"?

Word of advice: next time you make a poll, include a "neither" option. Your poll is the equivalent to asking the question "what is your favorite color" and then only providing "lime" and "periwinkle" as voting options.

some people will neither ever learn nor would ever listen. just look how many people are talking about bearish trend whenever price drops $10! it is starting to become very funny in fact.

even funnier is when you look back at each time price was stable just like now. for example the biggest clowning time was some months ago when price was between $3999 and $3200 and kept going up and down. in fact there is some traces of that (the $2k) in OPs post too

[ene1980]

I am very very amused by these people, $2k by the end of second half and 700-900 by next year lol, even if you combine all the greatest comedians in the whole world and tell them to write a joke it wouldn't be this funny.

These are not comedians but stupid fake economic analyst who missed out on bitcon and all they do is to voice their opinion to get some attention for their negative approach and predictions on bitcoin and calling these attention hungry whores as comedians is like showing disrespect to the real comedians  .
There is no way we could reach those valuation but if the entire economic system crumbles then we might see that affect on bitcoin too like the rest of the financial sectors.

[STT]

Neither scenario is totally impossible just improbable.   We all know the most likely continuation in every global market is the same as previous which is continual inflation and which results with higher prices.   Value behind that pricing is harder to track because we have no common reference, the dollar today is not the same one of ten years ago but lower pricing unless there is failure is unlikely.
  Situations where we go below a thousand which is beyond normal would probably involve national debt default, I consider that to be possible.  The largest trading nations of the world have governments which borrowed so much it would be better to reorganise and start over, thats the capitalist take but we have centralism.   Japan, USA or the central European union bank are all in a situation where they should stop QE and freeze debt, effectively they'd reset in some way like Greece did.   Thats not impossible, we just dont see it on the horizon yet but Germany has argued against ECB policy and as the largest exporter backing the Euro they could pull the plug if it were considered best stability.   Obviously that country has an opposition to hyper inflation for good reason, Japan is the furthest down that road.    It would be best for me to state a source article but I just wanted to say any price is possible if the ground moves but I also expect over 10k to become normal after some duration of 'normal QE'

[shoreno]

I am very very amused by these people, $2k by the end of second half and 700-900 by next year lol, even if you combine all the greatest comedians in the whole world and tell them to write a joke it wouldn't be this funny.

These are not comedians but stupid fake economic analyst who missed out on bitcon and all they do is to voice their opinion to get some attention for their negative approach and predictions on bitcoin and calling these attention hungry whores as comedians is like showing disrespect to the real comedians  .
There is no way we could reach those valuation but if the entire economic system crumbles then we might see that affect on bitcoin too like the rest of the financial sectors.

i find this funny somehow but not sure if im going to laugh or not because me myself arent so sure of the price of the coins last month  .

if i still recal i think last month was a bad approach for cryptos   . all are suffering from thier own problem including financial and the appearance of the disease add on this too  . speculation like this last time are kinda acceptable so i dont think those guys are comedians or hungry for attention only  , only on my opinion