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Author Topic: This is why I believe bitcoin will crush in the distant future  (Read 709 times)
BlackHatCoiner (OP)
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June 01, 2020, 04:06:21 PM
 #1

Bitcoiners keep their coins in a private key. This has a disadvantage. Let's assume that someone with 1000BTC dies. If he hadn't given the wallet to someone then his bitcoins are lost. So in the distant future that lots of bitcoiners will be dead and they won't have given their private keys to others, many bitcoins will be lost. So the available bitcoins will be lower and lower overtime.

Bitcoin is not like a bank meaning that cannot be used as inheritance. So will it live only on our era? Will it be lost in the future?

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June 01, 2020, 04:15:57 PM
 #2

Let's not forget that bitcoin is highly divisible, and can be more divisible through layer 2 solutions. Lost bitcoin only helps the scarcity part of bitcoin. Unless 95% of the population suddenly dies without being able to hand over the bitcoin to their families, it will be quite farfetched to think that this will be a problem any time in our lifetimes.

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BlackHatCoiner (OP)
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June 01, 2020, 04:21:23 PM
 #3

Let's not forget that bitcoin is highly divisible, and can be more divisible through layer 2 solutions. Lost bitcoin only helps the scarcity part of bitcoin. Unless 95% of the population suddenly dies without being able to hand over the bitcoin to their families, it will be quite farfetched to think that this will be a problem any time in our lifetimes.

I didn't said it's the greatest possibility. But some bitcoins from few owners will get lost in the future. And I mentioned, overtime. Not tomorrow or next year.

Distant Future

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June 01, 2020, 04:24:57 PM
 #4

There are claims that quantum computers can recover the "lost" bitcoins. It's not available yet but they will probably become ready before 95% bitcoiners die with their private keys.

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June 01, 2020, 04:26:07 PM
 #5

There are claims that quantum computers can recover the "lost" bitcoins. It's not available yet but they will probably become ready before 95% bitcoiners die with their private keys.



If quantum computers can do that then we're in big trouble.

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June 01, 2020, 04:29:15 PM
 #6

I didn't said it's the greatest possibility. But some bitcoins from few owners will get lost in the future. And I mentioned, overtime. Not tomorrow or next year.

Distant Future
If we're going to think of this being a problem, then probably in the far distant future. It's one of those things that is just too far in the future that I don't really think we should be keeping mind of it today. It's like being worried over the death of the sun. Farfetched I know, but you get what I mean.

And let's not forget that some smart dude might think of a clever way of having a bitcoin inheritance without sacrificing self-custody.

If quantum computers can do that then we're in big trouble.
True. But if people can use quantum computers, we're going to have BIGGER problems than problems concerning bitcoin.

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June 01, 2020, 04:31:15 PM
 #7

If I die and had all my cash placed somewhere very safe, there's a chance nobody'll ever find it again or even know that I had it. So what's the difference between that and someone who dies without letting anyone know about their privkeys/passwords, marking their BTC as lost?



If quantum computers can do that then we're in big trouble.
I'm quite sure there's a plan for that scenario. Before quantum computers become commercially available, Bitcoin will be strong enough to counter their power.

If that's what scares you, just imagine what technology they could use against it considering the intel has tech like decades before we do. Smiley
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June 01, 2020, 04:33:35 PM
 #8

Quote
If I die and had all my cash placed somewhere very safe, there's a chance nobody'll ever find it again or even know that I had it. So what's the difference between that and someone who dies without letting anyone know about their privkeys/passwords, marking their BTC as lost?

There is no difference. But bitcoins are 21M and if bitcoins are getting lost overtime then there will be less in the future (like 100 years later)

Quote
True. But if people can use quantum computers, we're going to have BIGGER problems than problems concerning bitcoin.

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June 01, 2020, 04:36:43 PM
 #9

So in the distant future that lots of bitcoiners will be dead and they won't have given their private keys to others, many bitcoins will be lost. So the available bitcoins will be lower and lower overtime.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Probably_not_a_problem

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Bitcoin has 2.1 quadrillion raw units, making up 8 decimals of BTC precision, so the entire network could potentially operate on much less than the full quantity of Bitcoins. If deflation gets to the point where transactions of more than 10 BTC are unheard of, clients can just switch to another unit so that, for example, it shows 10 mBTC rather than 0.01 BTC.

The maximum number of raw units might not be enough if the entire world starts using BTC, but it would not be too difficult to increase precision in that case. The transaction format and version number would be scheduled to change at some particular block number after a year or two, and everyone would have to update by then.

Or, quoting the guy that designed it:

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.

And I mentioned, overtime. Not tomorrow or next year. Distant Future

The sun will burn out in 5-8 billion years, you should start preparing for it.  Cheesy

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June 01, 2020, 04:39:22 PM
 #10

There is no difference. But bitcoins are 21M and if bitcoins are getting lost overtime then there will be less in the future (like 100 years later)
And that makes it a donation to everyone, as Satoshi himself said. Less BTC = scarcer BTC = higher price if the demand and interest will still be there.

Gold is lost too, just imagine how much gold has been lost in the past 2000 years that is sitting right now underground. Smiley



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A today's website security would be nothing right now if quantum computers would be commercial starting from tomorrow. Just imagine having 50 quantum computers and trying to penetrate websites with high-grade security. A lot of damage could be done.

Before they become commercial, we'll adapt to them.
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June 01, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
 #11

I don’t know what drives you to make such an assumption, awareness about Bitcoin will increase, and therefore many people will learn how to inherit these currencies if they die.

But let's assume the worst scenario, which is that people lose their currencies, do not forget that we not only have 21 million Bitcoins but:
100,000,000 Satoshi =1 bitcoin so you have about 2,099,999,997,690,000 satoshis


The vast majority of these coins are under the management of platforms or whales, and therefore they have enough capacity to protect their funds and transfer them safely in the event of their death.
Also, mining will continue for several years, and thus more currencies will be produced. This problem will not appear until after hundreds of years, "then most of us will not be alive."
Satoshi Nakamoto - "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone."


Do not forget that lost currencies cannot be verified as missing.

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June 01, 2020, 04:54:30 PM
 #12

There are claims that quantum computers can recover the "lost" bitcoins. It's not available yet but they will probably become ready before 95% bitcoiners die with their private keys.



If quantum computers can do that then we're in big trouble.
Maybe, maybe not. We are not even sure if bitcoin will still be used before the last satoshi is mined. Who knows what crazy technology the next generation of computer and math geeks will develop in the next century. They can come up with a far more superior DLT that will prompt people to leave the bitcoin blockchain.
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June 01, 2020, 04:59:49 PM
 #13

You misunderstood the concept when someone has lost his bitcoins forever. It will actually help to make the remaining bitcoins rare because the supply is lesser.

And that means, a higher price for bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not like a bank meaning that cannot be used as inheritance. So will it live only on our era? Will it be lost in the future?
Hal managed to pass his bitcoins to his children.

Those discussions about inheriting your bitcoins are of more than academic interest. My bitcoins are stored in our safe deposit box, and my son and daughter are tech savvy. I think they're safe enough. I'm comfortable with my legacy.

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June 01, 2020, 05:01:34 PM
 #14

You misunderstood the concept when someone has lost his bitcoins forever. It will actually help to make the remaining bitcoins rare because the supply is lesser.

And that means, a higher price for bitcoin.

Hmm, I smell an incredible price-jump in the future  Roll Eyes

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June 01, 2020, 05:04:30 PM
 #15

You misunderstood the concept when someone has lost his bitcoins forever. It will actually help to make the remaining bitcoins rare because the supply is lesser.

And that means, a higher price for bitcoin.

All right. The fewer bitcoins circulating in the world, the higher the demand for them and, accordingly, the higher the price.
Obviously, over time, bitcoins will become smaller due to the fact that people will lose access to their private wallets or, as you said, in the event of death.

However, most of the people will surely be safe for this case, especially exchanges that own a huge number of bitcoins.
The bitcoin deficit will increase in a natural way, which will make this asset especially desirable.

I am sure there will be many more forks on this subject.

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June 01, 2020, 05:39:23 PM
 #16

You misunderstood the concept when someone has lost his bitcoins forever. It will actually help to make the remaining bitcoins rare because the supply is lesser.

And that means, a higher price for bitcoin.

Hmm, I smell an incredible price-jump in the future  Roll Eyes
Yes, and that is the reason why everyone is saying HODL. Save as much as you can, we just went through the halving and the cycle after that is common for most bitcoin holders. But if you have no idea, check the history of the 2 halvings on 2012 and 2016.

All right. The fewer bitcoins circulating in the world, the higher the demand for them and, accordingly, the higher the price.
Obviously, over time, bitcoins will become smaller due to the fact that people will lose access to their private wallets or, as you said, in the event of death.

However, most of the people will surely be safe for this case, especially exchanges that own a huge number of bitcoins.
The bitcoin deficit will increase in a natural way, which will make this asset especially desirable.

I am sure there will be many more forks on this subject.
In case of death, I think we have our own plans of how we will introduce our private keys to our parents, children or immediate relatives. But, I'm not thinking of that, don't think of it so that we won't have worries in our minds which might be the actual reason why we'll be in stress.

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June 02, 2020, 02:38:18 PM
 #17

Bitcoin is not like a bank meaning that cannot be used as inheritance. So will it live only on our era? Will it be lost in the future?

Exactly the opposite from what you think, the fewer available Bitcoins on the market, the higher their price will be, assuming that there is a demand in the future. Probably today's price is also a result of the fact that maybe several million Bitcoins were lost in the first few years when people didn’t believe too much that the whole thing would literally explode a few years later. Yet I believe that people have become much more cautious especially after 2017, and that some new losses will not be as dramatic as in the past.

In addition, some argue that there are ways that the lost coins can be recovered - truth or myth, judge for yourself Wink

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Ucy
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June 02, 2020, 03:14:57 PM
 #18

Well, Bitcoin is programmable. It should be possible to build a well decentralized and efficient applications ontop of it to solve the inheritance problem.
In regards to lost coins making bitcoin lower... that also makes the supply less which in turn increases its price.  Satoshi said something in this regard:

"Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.msg1647#msg1647


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June 02, 2020, 03:27:06 PM
 #19

Lol, I thought you are even going to make reference to the high power consumption and the amount of resources miners need in order to continue their operations because that's a problem that is likely going to disrupt bitcoin inn future but not destroy it. I sometimes think that going forward some miners might fall out if mining difficulty increases and the price of bitcoin at those times are not worth taking care of their expenses but what you are saying is really far fetched.

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June 02, 2020, 03:33:27 PM
 #20

I don’t know what drives you to make such an assumption, awareness about Bitcoin will increase, and therefore many people will learn how to inherit these currencies if they die.-snip-
This is a relevant answer to responding about the future of bitcoin which will disappear when bitcoin owners die. Awareness will increase even more when bitcoin becomes a valuable digital currency. Having lots of bitcoin will make someone more careful and make plans for his future when he is dead. The bitcoin heir that he left behind will be held by someone who has the rights to the private key to access the bitcoin he has. This is very important, making a will for bitcoin holders in the future.

 
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