Bitcoin Surge - What is happening?

[deisik]

It appears that we might also have a new Tom Lee indicator. His name is Anthony Pompliano. The dump occured 16 hours after this announcement he made on Twitter hehe.

I've always considered guys like Pomp to be just as useful/useless as Tom Lee. To be fair, he hasn't usually stuck his head out like this before, I always wonder what makes guys like them put themselves out on a limb. What's it matter if they're right anyway?

Isn't the answer obvious? They are probably heavily invested in something themselves and thus pursuing their own financial interests. In the end, it all comes down to how well they manage to hide their real intentions and push their agendas, and, as a result, how well their approaches are going to pan out for them personally and their pockets 

For example, the infamous scam artist Bernie Madoff from Wall Street was sometimes turning down potential investors so as to make it look like he is a real deal because people typically don't expect that a con artist would easily refuse to take money for their schemes. But it was paying off handsomely, even though he still ended up in jail

Most people would do the same in their place, though probably not as artfully and deviously as Madoff

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[Oasisman]

Here's another one, there are rumors that the recent red dot in bitcoin's stock-to-flow model might impact the bitcoin price in the future in a positive way, they even indicated bitcoin priced at $100,000 in 2021.

Photo from Twitter

I don't know why people speculate this much and create this kind of hype. Though there's still a possibility for an increase, there's not much basis for people to believe just because of what the graph shows.

S2F model's analysis was based on the coin circulation and movement in the market, but they are no different like the other few chart analysis from different model. These are just remained speculations and not accurate.
What separates these models from most of the predictors, is that they have reliable data and chart analysis than pulling random numbers out of thin air.
So, obviously they can be a major factor to influence the market sentiments and turn people to believe which way the Bitcoin price is heading.   

These authors may have been invested themselves, thus tried to manipulate the market in their own way.
$100,000 in 2021 ain't impossible, but It doesn't look like a realistic figure consdering how the crypto market is reacting to the things that's happening in general aspect of this economic crisis.

[buwaytress]

Isn't the answer obvious? They are probably heavily invested in something themselves and thus pursuing their own financial interests. In the end, it all comes down to how well they manage to hide their real intentions and push their agendas, and, as a result, how well their approaches are going to pan out for them personally and their pockets 

For example, the infamous scam artist Bernie Madoff from Wall Street was sometimes turning down potential investors so as to make it look like he is a real deal because people typically don't expect that a con artist would easily refuse to take money for their schemes. But it was paying off handsomely, even though he still ended up in jail

Most people would do the same in their place, though probably not as artfully and deviously as Madoff

Hmm, I still don't see the obvious answer. If you're someone like Tom Lee, then your bread and butter is about being a good analyst. But you shoot yourself in the foot when you come up with ridiculous numbers like some bidder at an auction, and you lose credibility for the one thing you're supposed to be good at. With Pomp he's an influencer, commentator, other than his being at Morgan Creek, so he doesn't need to make a call about a bull run that is or isn't happening. He can just keep pushing old drivel without making commitments.

Madoff? Can't see the comparisons but I think it was a bit more complex with Madoff, he was after all running a ponzi, but a complex one which he was constantly feeling guilty about. Probably turned down stuff he knew he couldn't manage well.

[Slow death]

they even indicated bitcoin priced at $100,000 in 2021.

this is definitely impossible. When I look at that number $100,000 per bitcoin and see the price of bitcoin struggling to stay above $ 10,000, I wonder how anyone can be so optimistic as to dream about $100,000? it looks like the crypto market is a gold mine, where people put little money today and tomorrow the money has multiplied a lot

I don't know why people speculate this much and create this kind of hype. Though there's still a possibility for an increase, there's not much basis for people to believe just because of what the graph shows.

at first I thought that some people just wanted to appear on the news channels when they made these exaggerated price forecasts, but now I start to convince myself that these people must have bought a lot and want to make a lot of money so they keep making these exaggerated price forecasts to encourage many people to buy bitcoin and make the bitcoin price go up a lot

[deisik]

Isn't the answer obvious? They are probably heavily invested in something themselves and thus pursuing their own financial interests. In the end, it all comes down to how well they manage to hide their real intentions and push their agendas, and, as a result, how well their approaches are going to pan out for them personally and their pockets 

For example, the infamous scam artist Bernie Madoff from Wall Street was sometimes turning down potential investors so as to make it look like he is a real deal because people typically don't expect that a con artist would easily refuse to take money for their schemes. But it was paying off handsomely, even though he still ended up in jail

Most people would do the same in their place, though probably not as artfully and deviously as Madoff

Hmm, I still don't see the obvious answer

Okay, let's say the answer is not that obvious then

So let's rephrase the point in question as a question. Do you really expect public figures (influencers, commentators, etc) to be always speaking their mind? But if they aren't, there is a short path to speaking something which is not. Moreover, you can only be a good influencer when those being influenced by you don't feel that way at all. As the saying goes, the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And while we are at it, how good is Tom Lee as an analyst, or any public figure, for that matter? Let me guess most if not all of his analyses can be reduced to either price going up or it is going down. That's it

[justdimin]

Hopefully it will continue a bit longer, right now we are at a good stage where the price could go up very much but unfortunately it got stuck once again, that increase was awesome and hopefully it will get even better soon enough, lets just wait and hope for the best. Meanwhile that increase and sudden fall afterwards were all good for us, the price at least broke over a resistance point which means it will be easier to go back up at least.

Not saying it will be like taking candy from a baby, but comparing to how hard it was last week, this week it will be easier. We just need the buyers to collect themselves and regroup, if they can once again move all together which they always do, we could break through the $10k mark and this time around go even beyond that.

[Zemomtum]

When stock is not moving, BTC will definitely be the center of focus. Hope this move can be sustainable

[GreatArkansas]

When stock is not moving, BTC will definitely be the center of focus. Hope this move can be sustainable

I don't think so this is true all the time, there are times that BTC and stock market are kicking the same time.
I am also following the S2F model which I saw it first on the twitter and it is kinda accurate for long term part, as what I noticed is the RED DOT is the new update of the S2F model, which if you will compare it to the previous years, it is the start of Bitcoin's pump or bullish price actions.

[exstasie]

It appears that we might also have a new Tom Lee indicator. His name is Anthony Pompliano. The dump occured 16 hours after this announcement he made on Twitter hehe.

I've always considered guys like Pomp to be just as useful/useless as Tom Lee. To be fair, he hasn't usually stuck his head out like this before, I always wonder what makes guys like them put themselves out on a limb.

His incentives are similar to Tom Lee. He's trying to get exposure for his hedge fund (Morgan Creek) and marketing to institutions who want upside crypto exposure. Secondly, I assume his fund is positioned bullishly, so he's essentially talking his book.

[fabiorem]

The analysis below seems reasonable, and puts the 4-year cycle theory back into perspective:

[exstasie]

The analysis below seems reasonable, and puts the 4-year cycle theory back into perspective:

I don't know that it lends any credence to the 4-year cycle per se, but it does look like another Wyckoff accumulation cycle.

I'm hesitant to assume the market will simply repeat a fractal of 2016 though. That seems a little too easy. A lot of people are currently betting on a bubble. Meanwhile short levels are quite low. In 2016 there was much more disbelief.

I know David is leaving the possibility open for a Silk Road crash type shakeout, but personally I think it could be more of a multi-month downtrend (maybe into the end of the year) rather than a quick spring into a bubble like October 2013.