Charts updated, due to
popular request. Six years ago yesterday I locked this topic due to the deterioration of discussion. Let's see how long it remains open for this time shall we?
As this remains an active dispute:
New suggested local rules and enforcement guideSuggested local rules- No ~Vod or ~OgNasty rants from anyone. Go to the relevant threads to continue the dispute there, if you feel the need to do that.
- Don't dig yourself a hole and jump into it! If you're not interested in the topic, move along. Avoid making a fool of yourself.
- This topic is a statistical overview. The discussion should be based on the statistics, not the dispute itself.
Enforcement guide:- Should the topic again deteriorate, the topic will be be indefinitely locked, like it was previously for 6 years.
- Should the topic be locked due to Vod or OgNasty, the topic will no longer be updated for a minimum of 1 year.
Updates- DT1 comparison chart replaced with
DT data, due to the more complete nature for charting purposes. Comparisons between DT and DT1 data have also been added, for the individual users in question.
- Added preliminary related topics list from the
original topic, similar to
Lauda's DefaultTrust statistics & relevant topics list, intended as a community-orientated list. But I don't think we'll get that far.
- Inspired by Lauda's considerably delayed "
Kumo Twist", cumulative DT Strength charts for the individual users have been added, referenced as "All Time DT Strength".
Analysis- Compared to the chart from
6 years ago based on ~15 months of data – where OgNasty was in a trust uptrend and Vod was in a trust downtrend – both users are now firmly in long-term downtrends based on linear trajectory and 200 Week MAs.
- Having spent 5 years fluctuating between the retrospective long-term linear downtrend, Vod's DT strength has spent the past year predominantly between the 200 Week and linear downtrend, both of which continue to trend to the downside.
- In contrast, having spent 3 years predominantly above the retrospective linear downtrend, OgNasty's trust fell below this downtrend and has remained below for the past year with the 200 Week MA breaking below the neutral line.
- Due to the highs where Vod's strength came from with a DT high of +37, his linear downtrend is steeper compared to OgNasty's. However, the linear downtrend when ignoring the first year of data is relatively parallel. The linear trajectory otherwise targets neutral DT strength by April 2029, or otherwise neutral DT1 strength by November 2027. As a reminder:
"The DT Strength moving averages and linear trendlines used are not intended as a guarantee, nor should be considered an accurate forecast."- OgNasty's trust did initially have a 'bullish Kumo Twist' in August 2019 based on all-time DT strength, with a high of 575. OgNasty's cumulative trust is now fast approaching a bearish kumo twist, which would confirm the 7 year long trend momentum is negative.
- While Vod's DT strength is marginally higher than his DT1 strength (often by 1 or 2 and up to 4), in contrast OgNasty's DT1 trust is often higher than his DT trust by similar margins. The statistical rationale for this is the higher net distrust from
Excluded DT1 members (for Vod) and the higher net inclusion from Excluded DT1 members (for OgNasty).
Summary- Both users are in long-term trust downtrends, evident by the linear trajectory based on 7+ years of data and the moving average of ~4 years. Below the down-trending 200 Week moving average, the trends remains undoubtedly bearish.
