Snipie's gambling investment test

[LogitechMouse]

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run 

You do not need to wait for a long time. As long as you can see the green, you can close the investment and start with another investment. You should play safely in the investment so you can make a profit. No matter if the profit is small, if you can make it more often, your profit will become bigger.

But yes, maybe the red will stay for a day before the green will come again, so you need to be patient.

Does that make sense though?
As soon as I hit a small profit pull out and reinvest?

You can since the dilution fee in Yolodice has been removed for quite some time.
If dilution fee has been added again, every investment that you will make will have a 2% dilution fee.

"Dilution fee" remains inactive until further notice.

[leea-1334]

Yeah it is early to judge and after 1-2 months the picture will be better indeed 
Interestingly my LTC investment is doing very well and my ROI is 0.4583% after 4 days which I find quite good. Meanwhile my BTC is still negative with - 500 satoshi.

Interestingly,,, most of my investments in any site in LTC has made more profit than any other coin. I think the Litecoin whales do not mind wagering it a lot and this is why in my mind it seems like they are more likely to lose. But at yolo I never tried this,,, maybe I should diversify even more.

[snipie]

I put in a small amount also just to give it a test and its been up and down for a while.
I started off red for a while, it turned green yesterday (I got excited) only to wake up to it being red again. Haha

Oh well, in it for the long run 

Yesterday was a hilarious day, I believe some whales maybe are risking a good amount of BTC. I mean it is the first time when I see my profits jump from -0.00003xxxx to +0.00004xxxx BTC in a matter of seconds then turn red again and so on.
Today is the worst day in my BTC investment -0.00007497 BTC while my LTC seems fine. I will wait and see when my BTC will recover from this...

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Can you explain this further? Willing to learn from you.

Well this is simple. Maybe I said it in a way that I complicated it too much.

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Now if there is 200 BTC currently investment by all investors and you invested 2 BTC than your earning will be:

2/200 * 5 = 0.05 BTC

But if there is not 200 BTC but only 20 BTC currently invested by all investors

2/20 * 5 = 0.5 BTC

And now to actual data on yolodice:

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC
ETH Currently invested - 2299.48040977 ETH = 58 BTC
LTC Currently invested - 9123.78625175 LTC = 41 BTC
DOGE Currently invested - 78263418.22757039 DOGE = 20 BTC

So gambling site total gambling volume on BTC has to be 10x bigger than DOGE gambling volume to give the same ROI. So as an investor willing ot optimize your investment you should compare gambling volume vs total investments on each coin and also calculate currency risk into it - doge is unpredictable while BTC is considered as safe-haven.

[xxjumperxx]

Well this is simple. Maybe I said it in a way that I complicated it too much.

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Now if there is 200 BTC currently investment by all investors and you invested 2 BTC than your earning will be:

2/200 * 5 = 0.05 BTC

But if there is not 200 BTC but only 20 BTC currently invested by all investors

2/20 * 5 = 0.5 BTC

And now to actual data on yolodice:

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC
ETH Currently invested - 2299.48040977 ETH = 58 BTC
LTC Currently invested - 9123.78625175 LTC = 41 BTC
DOGE Currently invested - 78263418.22757039 DOGE = 20 BTC

So gambling site total gambling volume on BTC has to be 10x bigger than DOGE gambling volume to give the same ROI. So as an investor willing ot optimize your investment you should compare gambling volume vs total investments on each coin and also calculate currency risk into it - doge is unpredictable while BTC is considered as safe-haven.

Thanks for the great explanation, even I understood.
There is no data of volume on each coin, correct?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Thanks for the great explanation, even I understood.
There is no data of volume on each coin, correct?

On yolodice you have a nice graphic that shows each investor return. Its ease to calculate estimated annual ROI for each coin.

F.e One of long ETH investors:



Invested 300 ETH
Profit 80.945 ETH

80.975/300 = 27% (profit per 6 months)

1.27 ^ 2 (continuous reinvestment - compound percentage) = 61 % (profit per 1 year)

Do the same for other coins and you will know where to invest. But remember about currency risk too. DOGE investment should be double or triple as profitable as bitcoin is to cover price change risk.

[Maus0728]

Gambling site earns on house edge (statistic advantage over gamblers). For dice it is most often 1%. So if total wager from all gamblers is lets say 1000 BTC, gambling site will most likely earn ~10 BTC. In yolodice
50% of these funds are allocated to investors - 5BTC.

Let us take a look at the actual statistics shown in YoloDice site. Currently we have a total wagered amount of approximate 45,300 BTC. So if the house edge is 1% then the gambling site is earning an approximate 450 BTC which is true as shown in the site profit statistics isn't it?

BTC Currently invested - 218 BTC

So let's say I added another 0.01 BTC in my investment making it a total of 0.02 BTC. For the multiplier, I've used the actual site profit rather than the expected site profit.
(0.02 / 218) * (395 / 2) = 0.018 BTC

Question: I am earning 0.018 BTC in average? or per year?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

So let's say I added another 0.01 BTC in my investment making it a total of 0.02 BTC. For the multiplier, I've used the actual site profit rather than the expected site profit.
(0.02 / 218) * (395 / 2) = 0.018 BTC

Question: I am earning 0.018 BTC in average? or per year?

It depends on where those 395 BTC comes from. I guess it is total profit (starting from 2016) so its "per 4 years". But I would not take such long time frame bacause we dont know how big bankroll was than. It could be 50 BTC not 200.

You can do it like that:



Profit in 24.06.2019 - 335 BTC
Profit now - 395 BTC

1 year profit - 60 BTC

(0.02/218) * (60/2) = 0.00275

0.00275 / 0.02 = 13.75 % annual ROI

But this estimation does not include bankroll change. Its 218 BTC, it can go to 400 in 1 year or drop to 50.

Calculating the same (annual ROI) based on old investors resoults:



We have 11.75% in 6 months - 24% annualy -so it looks like during last 6 months total invesments at least double or triple.

[snipie]

@OP I see you are updating OP once per day/few days. Thats way way too much. Once per month is enough. Once per week is optimal to keep us in this thread (not to let us forget about this thread). Once per day does not show anything about investment which require a lot of time to show it's potential (1% statistic advantage over gambler). 1 day time frame shows only random fluctuations. Couple goes in a whistle.

The aim of this topic is to show new investors how things are going on in when they invest. Especially the first days are crucial. New comers will think the sky is blue and raining gold but this isn't the case. I am new myself and I am a little bit surprised about how fast my profit change in the first days. Honestly it I didn't promise to keep the topic updated for long period, I would close my investment in +4k satoshi that I saw yesterday. I believe many new members will do exactly the same. Now if this topic show a long term profit then people may try to keep their money longer and wait for a decent revenue if that was the case
I am slowing down my updates to become weekly indeed starting from week 4 tho. This week I will post likely another update after 3 days tho.

[snipie]

Updated the table as I said for the second time this week. Next update will be in week 4.


Bitcoin investment still red but there was a little bit loss cut. I expect to go green in the next week.
I increased my LTC investment x5, been green for 1-2 days then reddish.. Will update it too next week 

[LogitechMouse]

~
Bitcoin investment still red but there was a little bit loss cut. I expect to go green in the next week.
I increased my LTC investment x5, been green for 1-2 days then reddish.. Will update it too next week 

I saw my investment within the past few days went down from around 80k sats to around 50k sats. Some whales or some huge money gamblers won at that time.
Now it went back to ~70k already so overall I'm still in profit and I hope that some here who invested for a long time in yolodice have profits too.

[Ziskinberg]

~
Bitcoin investment still red but there was a little bit loss cut. I expect to go green in the next week.
I increased my LTC investment x5, been green for 1-2 days then reddish.. Will update it too next week 

I saw my investment within the past few days went down from around 80k sats to around 50k sats. Some whales or some huge money gamblers won at that time.
Now it went back to ~70k already so overall I'm still in profit and I hope that some here who invested for a long time in yolodice have profits too.

I am sure they are in profit as Yolodice is a profitable gambling site.
Their might be some whales who won but you know, gambling site still has the edge and they'll win in the long run, same will go with the investors of course.

[Maus0728]

~
Bitcoin investment still red but there was a little bit loss cut. I expect to go green in the next week.
I increased my LTC investment x5, been green for 1-2 days then reddish.. Will update it too next week 

I saw my investment within the past few days went down from around 80k sats to around 50k sats. Some whales or some huge money gamblers won at that time.
Now it went back to ~70k already so overall I'm still in profit and I hope that some here who invested for a long time in yolodice have profits too.

I tried to do some experimentation to my investments. These past few days I have seen that the ROI is always at negative so I tried divesting it and gamble to gain back what was lost for almost 2 weeks of investment. As of now, I am waiting to re-invest again but on a larger amount of money. It doesn't make sense to wait for about 2 weeks with a negative ROI and small amount of open investment.

That's just me though.

[snipie]

I tried to do some experimentation to my investments. These past few days I have seen that the ROI is always at negative so I tried divesting it and gamble to gain back what was lost for almost 2 weeks of investment. As of now, I am waiting to re-invest again but on a larger amount of money. It doesn't make sense to wait for about 2 weeks with a negative ROI and small amount of open investment.

That's just me though.

Yeah true. Unless this topic, I would definitely closed my bitcoin investment and reconsider a higher amount just like what I did with LTC.
Now my LTC was going very well, nice ROI in the first days, almost green the whole time but of course there is always some lucky dudes who make high profits and take with them your profits from time to time 

[Maus0728]

~snip~
Yeah true. Unless this topic, I would definitely closed my bitcoin investment and reconsider a higher amount just like what I did with LTC.
Now my LTC was going very well, nice ROI in the first days, almost green the whole time but of course there is always some lucky dudes who make high profits and take with them your profits from time to time 

Why not divest it for now and wait for our weekly payment and re-invest again for a much bigger amount? Or wait for another few weeks and then re-open another investment?

[snipie]

~snip~
Yeah true. Unless this topic, I would definitely closed my bitcoin investment and reconsider a higher amount just like what I did with LTC.
Now my LTC was going very well, nice ROI in the first days, almost green the whole time but of course there is always some lucky dudes who make high profits and take with them your profits from time to time 

Why not divest it for now and wait for our weekly payment and re-invest again for a much bigger amount? Or wait for another few weeks and then re-open another investment?

Then new comers, including myself, will never know how things are going in the short, medium and long term once we started investing.
My invested BTC will remain as it for quite few months at least but I will keep modifying my LTC investment if necessary 

[xxjumperxx]

My small investment has been red since the start. It got worse and now slowly the losses are reducing. I expect it to be red for about 2 weeks or so and then it should turn green. Theres always going to be variance, whales or bigger gamblers winning.
In the end the house wins, so just be patient

[Tytanowy Janusz]

My small investment has been red since the start. It got worse and now slowly the losses are reducing. I expect it to be red for about 2 weeks or so and then it should turn green. Theres always going to be variance, whales or bigger gamblers winning.
In the end the house wins, so just be patient

My doge investment is also on red ... after 42 days. I was on profit +5% than I was negative 2%, than negartive 5% and now i'm negative 0.7%.

Now I'm -3% on my main investment. My second one is -6%. Damn. Someone is really going high. Maybe whale trying martingale (i'm constantly going down)? Can't wait to see him hitting killing strike

My investment has 46 days. So yours "2 weeks in red" seams to be optimistic I was two weeks on green and then... surprise motherf * * ker.

I was also thinking that spreading investment into many casinos not only saves us from exit scams but also expose our money to higher gambling volume (makes final ROI less prone to extreme cases). Need to find another good casino with DOGE investments. Any ideas?

[LogitechMouse]

~
Bitcoin investment still red but there was a little bit loss cut. I expect to go green in the next week.
I increased my LTC investment x5, been green for 1-2 days then reddish.. Will update it too next week 

I saw my investment within the past few days went down from around 80k sats to around 50k sats. Some whales or some huge money gamblers won at that time.
Now it went back to ~70k already so overall I'm still in profit and I hope that some here who invested for a long time in yolodice have profits too.

I tried to do some experimentation to my investments. These past few days I have seen that the ROI is always at negative so I tried divesting it and gamble to gain back what was lost for almost 2 weeks of investment. As of now, I am waiting to re-invest again but on a larger amount of money. It doesn't make sense to wait for about 2 weeks with a negative ROI and small amount of open investment.

That's just me though.

You can pull out your investment there anytime since the dilution fee has been removed.

Anyway, I also experienced what you've experienced too. I started also with a negative profit but it didn't took long. I think in less than a week, I saw my investment turned into green already. I also saw my investment lose at around 15k-20k sats I think but didn't bother me though since I'm investing already for a long time and these small ups and downs doesn't move me anything at all or doesn't make me decide what will I do next.

Put a larger amount of money into it so you have a higher share of profit or you can put an X amount this week and another X amount this week since you're in Yolodice too. You can invest your BTC there quickly.

[Reid]

You can pull out your investment there anytime since the dilution fee has been removed.

Anyway, I also experienced what you've experienced too. I started also with a negative profit but it didn't took long. I think in less than a week, I saw my investment turned into green already. I also saw my investment lose at around 15k-20k sats I think but didn't bother me though since I'm investing already for a long time and these small ups and downs doesn't move me anything at all or doesn't make me decide what will I do next.

Put a larger amount of money into it so you have a higher share of profit or you can put an X amount this week and another X amount this week since you're in Yolodice too. You can invest your BTC there quickly.

Same with me.
I don't really check it much but upon reading all the investment thread, I had the urge to look at it. 

Last time I checked I was at +15k satoshis.
Now I am at +6k.
I don't know how it is calculated but I am still happy to see the green numbers.
Maybe it will take more time before we could really see a better green amount.