Snipie's gambling investment test

[snipie]

What is most important in my opinion this week is the share in the bankroll, it dropped significantly meaning they are people who invested a considerable amount and trusting the positive wave!

In my opinion it is very bad news. More investors = less profit for us. The worst part about that is that it hit you after loss so recovery will be much harder. The same happened to me on my doge investment.
-snip-

Yes that's right, more investors = less profit but also less losses when a whale hit big.
Right now the bankroll lost 1 bitcoin so my game profit is −0.00053622 BTC which could be worse with the previous share.
BTW my share rised a little bit to 0.005011%, weird someone retracted its investment before the incident?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yes that's right, more investors = less profit but also less losses when a whale hit big.

Agree but this is not symmetrical bet because of casino statistic advantage over gambler. So it is more likely to earn more than loss more. And with big enough sample (f.e 1 year investment) it is only "more profit".


And as I already posted. I suppose that after whale big win it is more likely to see whale loss big.

What do you guys think about "trading on casino profit chart?". Not saying about doing regular TA (trend lines etc) but simply investing on the dips? From first look it does not makes sense. This chart is not moving based on supply and demand and should be moving 100% random in short term while in long term going up, but is it 100% random?

I'm just thinking:

-How often did you withdraw your profit from gambling site?

If someone wins big:
In most cases people gamble until they loose everything. Even if they double/tripple they come back next day to lose it all. They have different approach with profit money than with earned money (are willing to take more risks).
If someone loose big:
In most cases leaves casino for a while (waiting for next month salary f.e). He simply can't play more without money.

So i'm saying that after dumps casino has higher chances for short term profit than after pumps and that dives you nice kick for the start of your investment.

BTW my share rised a little bit to 0.005011%, weird someone retracted its investment before the incident?

Maybe someone decided to go crazy with his investment. Closed it to double but unfortunately lost it all.

[btcltcdigger]

What is most important in my opinion this week is the share in the bankroll, it dropped significantly meaning they are people who invested a considerable amount and trusting the positive wave!

In my opinion it is very bad news. More investors = less profit for us. The worst part about that is that it hit you after loss so recovery will be much harder. The same happened to me on my doge investment.
-snip-

Yes that's right, more investors = less profit but also less losses when a whale hit big.
Right now the bankroll lost 1 bitcoin so my game profit is −0.00053622 BTC which could be worse with the previous share.
BTW my share rised a little bit to 0.005011%, weird someone retracted its investment before the incident?

That could be me. I had $250 in BTC inside, but after several weeks of contant loss, i decided to call it quits, and try something new. I lost in total $3 which is not much.
But on the flipside, those $250 i took out and reinvested are now worth $280, so gg for me

[Pamadar]

This is good news for all the investors as this week has help them to reduce the losses compared to previous week. But still it looks like this will take some time unless a big whale loss in between which can help you to come into positive returns in coming time.

There will always be whales coming in and all it needs is a bit of luck on the investors side! 
As snipie said there was also a rise in the Bankroll, so the trust is there and some big investors see a potential rise in their investment!

Keep holding and waiting for that luck to be in the side of the house, if that continues to bring profits the chance to recover and start again
the positive outcome, really take time and more gamblers to play and wager for investors to start seeing good run again.

And  less whales to cashout huge amount of winnings that would be much better to every investors.

[Reid]

That could be me. I had $250 in BTC inside, but after several weeks of contant loss, i decided to call it quits, and try something new. I lost in total $3 which is not much.
But on the flipside, those $250 i took out and reinvested are now worth $280, so gg for me

You reinvested where? In bitcoin?
I have a balance now and thinking of putting it in a different coin.
Or, should I just add it in the bitcoin investment.
Having a difficult time to decide.

Looking at the number of bettors, they mostly use Doge, so could it be a better choice or will that only make it worse.
Sorry, I had a lot of question. Just a little confused.

[mindrust]

In my opinion it is very bad news. More investors = less profit for us.

If everybody decides to be the house, then where will our money come from? 

Still, be grateful math is on your (the house's) side.

Players are mathematically proven losers.

[Vaculin]

In my opinion it is very bad news. More investors = less profit for us.

If everybody decides to be the house, then where will our money come from? 

Still, be grateful math is on your (the house's) side.

Players are mathematically proven losers.

His point is more investors = less money for small investors.. .well, it's pretty simple, the solution is just to increase his investment so he will get a bigger share of the pie. When you are fully confident with investing in a bankroll, you should be able to take bigger risk with that. I'm just saying.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I have a balance now and thinking of putting it in a different coin.
Or, should I just add it in the bitcoin investment.
Having a difficult time to decide.
Sorry, I had a lot of question. Just a little confused.

You can calculate estimated ROI based on current investors performance - yolodice share this data - https://yolodice.com/#stats/investor

DOGE estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 186% per 7 months = 16,25% monthly = 500% profit annulay
ETH estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 36% per 7 months = 4,5% monthly = 69% profit annulay
LTC estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 72% per 7 months = 8,1% monthly = 154% profit annulay
BTC estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 72% per 7 months = 1,0% monthly = 13% profit annulay


Take into account the currency risk (BTC is like a stable coin compared to DOGE) and small sample error (DOGE is after big whale loosing a lot while BTC is after big whale winning a lot) and you have your investment analysis ready.

[Reid]

Take into account the currency risk (BTC is like a stable coin compared to DOGE) and small sample error (DOGE is after big whale loosing a lot while BTC is after big whale winning a lot) and you have your investment analysis ready.

Oh! Thanks for the reminder.
I forgot about the price fluctuation of Doge. I should have also considered that.

You can calculate estimated ROI based on current investors performance - yolodice share this data - https://yolodice.com/#stats/investor

DOGE estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 186% per 7 months = 16,25% monthly = 500% profit annulay
ETH estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 36% per 7 months = 4,5% monthly = 69% profit annulay
LTC estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 72% per 7 months = 8,1% monthly = 154% profit annulay
BTC estimated ROI based on 7 months investment - 72% per 7 months = 1,0% monthly = 13% profit annulay

So it's really Doge which is winning.
Perhaps because of the cheap price? Which means you can own a large quantity.
My instincts could be telling me that I will be doing the right thing.
Yeah, thank you for explaining it thoroughly.
I haven't gone thru that stats of Yolodice for investment, or if I dd, I may have not understand it pretty well before. 
Sorry I am still new to this.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

So it's really Doge which is winning.
Perhaps because of the cheap price? Which means you can own a large quantity.

I posted % so quantity does not matter (so price does not matter too). Doge yields good return (compared to other coins) because it is considered as fun-coin or shitcoin so not many whales wants to hold it (you need to hodl a coin to use it as bankroll investment) and on the other hand it is one of the most popular faucet coins. DOGE is also the best coin to test various gambling systems (min bet on DOGE is 3 mln times smaller than min BTC bet). Because of that there is lack of doge investors and quite decent wager volume from gamblers (that have their doges mostly for free from various activities).

And to makes things clear your income is based on this formula:

Profit = TW * HE * 0.5 * YI / TI

TW - total wager from all gamlbers
HE - house edge
YI - your investment
TI - total invested by all investors

[KTChampions]

Hmmm... so much red in investment report. How is this possible? It turns out that players gain more than they lose during this couple of months? But this is a huge distance and a huge number of bets, they should be in the red. I think this is suspicious (or am I mistaken in something and do not take into account some nuances?)

[snipie]

Hmmm... so much red in investment report. How is this possible? It turns out that players gain more than they lose during this couple of months? But this is a huge distance and a huge number of bets, they should be in the red. I think this is suspicious (or am I mistaken in something and do not take into account some nuances?)

Nah I doubt about anything suspicious, especially if you want to attract more people to invest you have to show them that there is a decent profit behind that.
I was connecting there when I witnessed some whales grabbing a good BTC profit and driving my investment down. I was there also when I was following a guy betting in LTC, making my profit jump rapidly from red to green to red, waited until he lost enough to get my money back with few profit, you can find my post with a picture of my previous LTC investment on it a few pages back.

[KTChampions]

Hmmm... so much red in investment report. How is this possible? It turns out that players gain more than they lose during this couple of months? But this is a huge distance and a huge number of bets, they should be in the red. I think this is suspicious (or am I mistaken in something and do not take into account some nuances?)

Nah I doubt about anything suspicious, especially if you want to attract more people to invest you have to show them that there is a decent profit behind that.
I was connecting there when I witnessed some whales grabbing a good BTC profit and driving my investment down. I was there also when I was following a guy betting in LTC, making my profit jump rapidly from red to green to red, waited until he lost enough to get my money back with few profit, you can find my post with a picture of my previous LTC investment on it a few pages back.

Thank you for your explanations, I will try to study the history in more detail and I will follow your topic (as I already follow Yatsan's topic), I hope you will come out in profit.
Initially, I became interested in such topics as I was considering the possibilities of such investments, but I confess I did not find the time to look into this with all details.

[snipie]

Thank you for your explanations, I will try to study the history in more detail and I will follow your topic (as I already follow Yatsan's topic), I hope you will come out in profit.
Initially, I became interested in such topics as I was considering the possibilities of such investments, but I confess I did not find the time to look into this with all details.

Thanks
I was just like you, trying to learn more about those things until I found Yatsan topic and tried to see what will happen when I join.
In fact I learned more, was a little bit disappointed since I thought my profit will be decent and especially green all the time and obviously it turned to be inaccurate.
I believe I submitted throughout this topic what I noticed especially in the first days. The essential part invest what you afford to lose

[Reid]

Profit = TW * HE * 0.5 * YI / TI

TW - total wager from all gamlbers
HE - house edge
YI - your investment
TI - total invested by all investors

Once again, thank you for the deep explanation. It really cleared everything. (Sorry mate, my Smerits is depleted, I owe you some for your help)
Looking at the Doge investment structure, it's above 10 percent profit for most of the listed there.
The only negative I saw was 2 days ago. Maybe someone won a large amount.
I have a decision now.  

I was just like you, trying to learn more about those things until I found Yatsan topic and tried to see what will happen when I join.
In fact I learned more, was a little bit disappointed since I thought my profit will be decent and especially green all the time and obviously it turned to be inaccurate.
I believe I submitted throughout this topic what I noticed especially in the first days. The essential part invest what you afford to lose

Yeah, it's like passing the torch.
I learned thru snipie and Yatsan too. A lot.
It's spreading like a wildfire.  

[btc78]

Thank you for your explanations, I will try to study the history in more detail and I will follow your topic (as I already follow Yatsan's topic), I hope you will come out in profit.
Initially, I became interested in such topics as I was considering the possibilities of such investments, but I confess I did not find the time to look into this with all details.

Thanks
I was just like you, trying to learn more about those things until I found Yatsan topic and tried to see what will happen when I join.

Yeah what Yatsan's legacy is now spreading the whole forum,it is inspiring that there are other place here to make profit,in past it is buying crypto and playing gambling is what we know but now there are many offers gambling sites that can be possible to earn at least passive income.

In fact I learned more, was a little bit disappointed since I thought my profit will be decent and especially green all the time and obviously it turned to be inaccurate.

This is the problem if we will always expect good profit specially being starter,just let the process go and accept what the system gives you and besides you surely invest what you can afford to lose right?

I believe I submitted throughout this topic what I noticed especially in the first days. The essential part invest what you afford to lose

Let us try on our own mate and lets see what will happen,and besides every details has been given by OP here.

[wxa7115]

This is good news for all the investors as this week has help them to reduce the losses compared to previous week. But still it looks like this will take some time unless a big whale loss in between which can help you to come into positive returns in coming time.

There will always be whales coming in and all it needs is a bit of luck on the investors side! 
As snipie said there was also a rise in the Bankroll, so the trust is there and some big investors see a potential rise in their investment!

Even if the casino has the house edge over any player things get a little bit different when it comes to whales, if the gambling style of the whale is just to make a few but huge bets then you will need luck on your sides as a investor on the bankroll of the casino, and this is because the longer a player gambles under the house edge the more certain is his defeat and the fact he will lose money but if a whale bets big money in a few bets the law of large numbers does not have time to become effective and the variance in the results can be enormous.

The majority of those scenarios could still benefit the casino but there are also many scenarios where the whale could earn a small fortune affecting investors in the process.

[snipie]

So since tomorrow I am gonna update the table normally, I will not edit it to add that surprises. My investment went from ~ -50k satoshi to +54k satoshi since a guy lost around 22 BTC in just 1 hour! See those photos!

[xxjumperxx]

Congrats that was a huge swing!
Lets hope the run continues and more people lose

Thats what I mean, a single run or a single player can influence the investment and thats why its important to be in it for the long run to catch big players like this... of course it could have gone the other way and he could have won, but the house edge should make sure youre always ahead in odds.

[glowing10]

The above pic does makes all the investors happy because those who had being running in loses because last time person won big changed the statistics for all and this time somebody had lost 20+ btc and resulted in some relief for the investors to see their either loses turned to profits or their profits rose yesterday.