US economy wouldn't be shut down again despite the rising case count

[hugeblack]

The dismal economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve and the state of the million coronaviruses in the US still make the economic outlook largely uncertain.
All of these variables led to US stocks falling at the close, as all three indicators recorded their worst performance since March 16

The Dow (INDU) closed 1,862 points, or 6.9%, lower. The index fell back below 26,000 points for the first time since the start of the month.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended down 5.9%, closing at its lowest total points since late May. Only one S&P stock, grocery chain Kroger (KR), closed in positive territory.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which hit all-time highs on the first three days of the week, closed 5.3% lower.

"We cannot close the economy again. I think we have learned that if you shut down the economy, it will do more damage, not just economic damage, but there are other regions," according to CNBC Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

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[Upgrade00]

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

It would depend on the fiscal policies that would be implemented during that time as well as the general sentiment towards the nation's economic state. The president is doing everything to keep the latter positive by suggesting they are on the brink of a recovery, but people are going to need more than words to convince them of that.
The article also reported that they plan on pumping in a trillion dollars into the economy over the next month to stimulate it, but the current rise in covid-19 cases could negate the effect. If spending remains low, more businesses would close and loans would be defaulted.

Over the next two quarters, the U.S and global markets would likely continue to contract. More jobs may be gained, but unemployment would still be high. A vaccine being developed during this period however could change that.

[palle11]

I'm expecting the next phase of the US decision to be on massive job creation because closing down the economy has led to job cut which has a dwindling effect on the economy. Therefore, for a rapid and multiplier effect jobs have to be generated so that it will cushion the hardship in turn boost the country's gdp.

[BIT-BENDER]

I would be expecting to see lot of rehabilitation going on, the government would focus on rebuilding those areas which was crippled by the corona virus, also about very excited about the forth coming US presidential election, it would be the climax of activities going on in the US -if another great outbreak of the virus doesn't stop it- .
I think the citizens would be able to have accessed this present government and how they where able to handle economical matters -even at a time like this- but I don't see much economical growth, just sustaining measures to rebuild what was lost already to the pandemic.

[Barnabe]

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

[fiulpro]

See the problem is the government cannot control the protests until and unless they do something about it . The government is not gonna make any new law. They are unfortunately led by a racist leader . Even if they shut the economy down , people will still exercise their rights and it is important!!

They don't have any access to masks and other stuff. People are even hoarding toilet paper and baby products , this quarantine is causing nothing but suffering for the people.

One cannot just implement the quarantine like this . They need to have SYSTEMATIC QUARANTINE! If they do remove the quarantine it would be bad for the economy and the people for the long run .

They need to make new laws example:
1. One person would be allowed to work for the family.
2. Government needs to provide incentives NOT FOR THE PEOPLE who are able to take care of their families and are earning well , but for those who are now actually not even able to register for the incentives.
3. Around 1.54 million people are jobless now , they don't need to give them incentives but JOBS!

This quarantine should be Removed in stages and they need to increase their speed of testing !

Seriously they need better people to guide them !

[Darkoth89]

[...]
Seriously they need better people to guide them !

But then you still have to listen to what these 'better people' tell you ... There's the problem.


The whole situation seems really weird. Until yesterday you could've come to the conclusion that the US economy brushes off the first Coronavirus crash as if nothing ever happend when you check the US stock market. And yet there are millions of Americans signing for unemployment. This whole recovery at the stock market at that pace was so irrational. I don't believe we have seen the full effect of this (still ongoing) crisis yet, so I am not overly optimistic for the third and fourth quarter of this year.

But this isn't only for the US economy. Here in Germany we have something called 'Kurzarbeitergeld' where the government basically pays (a part) of the salary so that the employer doesn't have to fire his employees. In May 7.3 million employees received this Kurzarbeitergeld. What will happen with them when the government won't pay their salaray anymore?! Another example is the Lufthansa, which is about to receive a 9 bilion bailout from the German government, all this while planning to cut more than 20.000 jobs. So I am pretty sure we haven't seen the scale of effects of the Coronavirus shutdowns at all.

[Juggy777]

The dismal economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve and the state of the million coronaviruses in the US still make the economic outlook largely uncertain.
All of these variables led to US stocks falling at the close, as all three indicators recorded their worst performance since March 16

The Dow (INDU) closed 1,862 points, or 6.9%, lower. The index fell back below 26,000 points for the first time since the start of the month.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended down 5.9%, closing at its lowest total points since late May. Only one S&P stock, grocery chain Kroger (KR), closed in positive territory.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which hit all-time highs on the first three days of the week, closed 5.3% lower.

"We cannot close the economy again. I think we have learned that if you shut down the economy, it will do more damage, not just economic damage, but there are other regions," according to CNBC Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

I'm expecting the next phase of the US decision to be on massive job creation because closing down the economy has led to job cut which has a dwindling effect on the economy. Therefore, for a rapid and multiplier effect jobs have to be generated so that it will cushion the hardship in turn boost the country's gdp.

@hugeblack the key reason that they’re not keen on extending the lockdown is, because of the current state of the US economy which has remained neutral despite several economic activities opening up.

Furthermore the US labor department yesterday announced that another 1.5 million people, have filed their claims for unemployment benefits, and this is another reason why the lawmakers are not keen on extending the lockdown.

Lastly Jerome Powell chair of the Federal Reserve has claimed that people will find it very difficult to get meaningful employment opportunities, hence the lawmakers are trying to keep the economy open, otherwise people won’t be able to find job opportunities, and they’ll continue to remain unemployed which will further hurt the US economy.

The sell off started after the US labor department announced another 1.5 million people had filed for unemployment benefits and the number of coronavirus infections passed 2m even as states across the US continued to relax their quarantine measures.

A month into efforts to broadly reopen the U.S. economy there is little clarity either on the pace and durability of the recovery, or on the ability to convincingly suppress the virus that has killed more than 112,000 Americans.

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/11/us-economy-unemployment-us-states

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-reopen-analysis/a-month-into-reopening-no-clear-turn-for-u-s-economy-or-pandemic-idUSKBN23I303

[DooMAD]

They need to make new laws example:
1. One person would be allowed to work for the family.

Placing any restrictions on who can work during a time when you're trying to encourage people to work seems counter-productive.

Also, I'm not sure that would be very practical to implement.  If you only allow one worker per household, what would you do with a couple if they both worked as doctors, for example?  Are you going to tell one of those doctors that they can't save lives during a pandemic?

More people should be equipped to work from home where possible.  Those who have to work in a place that need to deal with people in person should be provided with all the necessary protective equipment to keep them safe and distance should be maintained wherever possible.  Most countries are getting it right, but the US and UK in particular have handled it abysmally.  It's only natural that their economies are being hit harder than others as a result.

[AniviaBtc]

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

US economy is really affected and they are struggling right now, do you think that they can recover that fast? Being shut down economically is not a surprise for them because they underestimated the struggle and tragedy that this virus can do to us. For me, IMO, the US government is not that responsible enough especially the President.

They will not experience this kind of huge increase in cases if he warned all of his citizen before the Covid-19 entered their country. Right now, they are suffering economically because of the lockdown, they just make this pandemic worse for them.

Hopefully they can recover from that recession and people use cryptocurrency in transactions so that the money circulates to the market.

[Barnabe]

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

US economy is really affected and they are struggling right now, do you think that they can recover that fast? Being shut down economically is not a surprise for them because they underestimated the struggle and tragedy that this virus can do to us. For me, IMO, the US government is not that responsible enough especially the President.

They will not experience this kind of huge increase in cases if he warned all of his citizen before the Covid-19 entered their country. Right now, they are suffering economically because of the lockdown, they just make this pandemic worse for them.

Hopefully they can recover from that recession and people use cryptocurrency in transactions so that the money circulates to the market.

In my opinion the fallbacks due to the virus are going to happen no matter what. If a country chooses to apply a strict lockdown, the virus will be an annoyance for several months, while a country with little rules on lockdown will accomplish herd immunity faster. The only people that should really have been in quarantine were the older and at risk people. I don't think society will benefit much by quarantining healthy people.

But I'm no scientist on this topic 

[sayulita]

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

Yes, the current administration is doing everything to delay the recession as this is the high time for elections and Trump doesn't want this kind of blunder on his side as this will destroy his chances of getting elected again and the opposition will surely win without any difficulties at all. So it will be best for him to avoid this defeat by postponing the recession and will deal with it after the elections. But another shutdown will be the final nail in his coffin as a lot of people are already pissed after the first lockdown and still there isn't any control on the spread of COVID till now.

[South Park]

The dismal economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve and the state of the million coronaviruses in the US still make the economic outlook largely uncertain.
All of these variables led to US stocks falling at the close, as all three indicators recorded their worst performance since March 16

The Dow (INDU) closed 1,862 points, or 6.9%, lower. The index fell back below 26,000 points for the first time since the start of the month.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended down 5.9%, closing at its lowest total points since late May. Only one S&P stock, grocery chain Kroger (KR), closed in positive territory.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which hit all-time highs on the first three days of the week, closed 5.3% lower.

"We cannot close the economy again. I think we have learned that if you shut down the economy, it will do more damage, not just economic damage, but there are other regions," according to CNBC Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

For what I can see we're still very far away from seeing the full effects of the economic crisis that is coming, the coronavirus whether we like it or not has shifted the priorities of people and this is not going to change just because the government lifted the lockdown, many sectors are going to be deeply affected by this change in the priorities of people, even if people want to return to normal as soon as possible in the back of their minds they know that is not true, the virus is still with us and all the people that lost their jobs are not going to get them back that easily, so I really expect that the next two quarters are going to be even more negative not only for the economy of the United States but the world in general.

[Barnabe]

I think a recession is long due these days, the economy was showing signs of overheating and the money the Fed pumped in the system only made it worse. I also think the US economy cannot withstand another shutdown without directly entering in a recession cycle. The current administration is probably doing everything it can to avoid this (or at least delay it), but at the end I think the recession will come no matter what happens.

Yes, the current administration is doing everything to delay the recession as this is the high time for elections and Trump doesn't want this kind of blunder on his side as this will destroy his chances of getting elected again and the opposition will surely win without any difficulties at all. So it will be best for him to avoid this defeat by postponing the recession and will deal with it after the elections. But another shutdown will be the final nail in his coffin as a lot of people are already pissed after the first lockdown and still there isn't any control on the spread of COVID till now.

That is also a bit factor I had in mind. I don't know if the recession (if there is any) will hit as hard as it did in 2008, but if it does during Trump's presidency, it will be very difficult for him to be re-elected. I just don't hope he pushes to much money into the system, because at the end the tax payer will probably have to pay the bill...

[el kaka22]

Why would they shut it down? It is a political thing and right now republicans are controlling the senate and they have a republican and crazy president. You would think health is a bipartisan thing but unfortunately it is not. Look at outside in USA, in anywhere you go people who are arguing against masks are people who would vote for Trump, people who are protesting lockdowns are all who would vote for trump. Is democrats are any different?

Practically speaking they are not, George Floyd has been murdered by a cop and it is definitely something to riot and protest about in any other normal period and I agree with them, however right now there is a pandemic yet they are out protesting very close to each other. Yet when you tell them there is a risk at least they do believe you instead of calling the virus a fraud.

[fabiorem]

Coronavirus is a hoax.
Stop falling for commie lies.

[figmentofmyass]

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US economy wouldn't be shut down again despite the rising case count.
"We can't shut down the economy again. I think we've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're going to create more damage, and not just economic damage, but there are other areas," he told CNBC in an interview.

i'm seeing contradictory messages from the trump administration. according to the CDC earlier today:

"If cases begin to go up again, particularly if they go up dramatically, it's important to recognize that more mitigation efforts such as what were implemented back in March may be needed again," Butler said.

He said the decision to reimplement measures will have to be made locally and based on "what is happening within the community regarding disease transmission."

it's really not up to mnuchin or trump. the CDC is acknowledging that decisions re lockdowns will continue to be made at the local level. if cases continue rising like this, then some governors are eventually gonna shut things down again.

if that happens, it's gonna crush the markets and any hope for a sustained economic recovery.

Why would they shut it down?

the same logic that brought the lockdowns in the first place: an exponential rise in cases can lead to the health care system being overrun. at that point, non-coronavirus urgent care will become neglected, leading to a much higher death toll than the epidemic would cause alone.

[pugman]

The dismal economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve and the state of the million coronaviruses in the US still make the economic outlook largely uncertain.
All of these variables led to US stocks falling at the close, as all three indicators recorded their worst performance since March 16

The Dow (INDU) closed 1,862 points, or 6.9%, lower. The index fell back below 26,000 points for the first time since the start of the month.
The S&P 500 (SPX) ended down 5.9%, closing at its lowest total points since late May. Only one S&P stock, grocery chain Kroger (KR), closed in positive territory.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which hit all-time highs on the first three days of the week, closed 5.3% lower.

"We cannot close the economy again. I think we have learned that if you shut down the economy, it will do more damage, not just economic damage, but there are other regions," according to CNBC Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

What are your expectations for the third and last quarter of this year?

Source ---> https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/global-stocks-coronavirus-fed/index.html

Well, considering the US unemployment rates also reduced in the US last month, shutting down economy won't do any good. Also because, even if they do shut down, people will still protest/go out and not listen to their government. Classic 'Murica.

As for my expectations for Q3 and Q4, i want to say its going to be comparatively better than Q1 and Q2, for sure. But it could be a total miss, given everything happening in the US right now. If the protests don't end, or if another catastrophe is to strike, I am afraid that things won't be as good as we want them to be.

[Jating]

I'm expecting the next phase of the US decision to be on massive job creation because closing down the economy has led to job cut which has a dwindling effect on the economy. Therefore, for a rapid and multiplier effect jobs have to be generated so that it will cushion the hardship in turn boost the country's gdp.

The problem is what sector that will create a massive job that you have describe? Every industry has been affected, and to get the economy moving again, business should open. But with the social distancing, I don't think that the economy will create more jobs.

So it's going to be a slow process in the US and we don't expect a recovery for this year. And there's also the possibility of second wave of pandemic, so very difficult situation not just for US economy but globally.

[bitgolden]

The current economical situation all around the world is not doing that well at all, I doubt people from USA would even argue about opening back up even if the cases are getting higher and higher. I personally would love to see it shutdown because that way you would have a lot less people dying, but we have to be realistic, if you close and lockdown everyone once again for few more months, you are going to have people die of starvation and an economical situation that is irreversible.

So, at one hand you have people dying right now which is horrible but after a while recovering and going back to normal, on the other hand you have less people dying at first which is great but having an economical situation where people will never recover from it and at the end people would start to die and you can't stop that one.