A trading chart does not play out to 100%

[rathaha10]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Personally i believe a lot of factors contributes greatly to price movement of cryptocurrency with the major factor being the force of demand and supply, they're are quite some experts who trade with accurate predictions by reading the charts at different level but these sets of people are very few. And even after having a full grasp of the chart, other factors like development news, partnerships, more prominent listings can still come in play that to alter the price movement inturn making chart analysis fails often at times and that's why there's a saying that analysis can only take you so far in trader, after that you'll have to take a few leaps of faiths

[Kelvinid]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TBH, I don't come into trading relying upon with charts. We know the situation already and the market will change often times that people can't predict it. Charts are only showing clearly in past events but not for the incoming, only just pure speculation which is actually out from reality. If you come into trading and relying on this, you can't expect passive trades but instead, it brings your trades at high risk of losing.

Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

[DoublerHunter]

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

[Blue_oxen]

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

Agree! The market is unpredictable. However, the charts are the best indicator that we have to kind of predict what's going on in the market. It's better to know something than nothing. Chart analyzing skills are still critical to traders. Traders who know chart analyzing are more likely to earn profits and avoid losing money than others!

[crwth]

Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

[Ridwan Fauzi]

Buy the rumors and sell on the news, that is something that I followed so far. I just come to entry when there is a good rumors come and that's fine if the information just mentioned bitcoin only noy crypto currency as a whole. Because in my experience as long as the good news come for bitcoin and we will see most altcoin market will follow it. Yeah, that is my benchmark to do day trading or swing trading, buy a bitcoin or some altcoin and let them increase in a few days and I'll back soon to take my profit. Actually I'm not a good man to make technical analyst but so far I still get a profit by doing that.

[Harlot]

You can't really put a success rate on technical analysis since everything can go in the opposite direction even if you are 100% sure of your analysis. I've seen this in a lot of time both in my personal trading and the analysis of other people where they go the complete opposite of their predicted move, that's why for any trader that is prepared they always have an exit strategy where they can just jump out of a trader when  their analysis fails. Simply there is still no guarantee that you will win every trade just because you know technical analysis you still have to plan your entry and exit everytime.

[btccoffee]

Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

[beerlover]

This is a lifelong battle between people who do TA and people who do not do TA and each of them calls each other names. I am here to tell both sides that they are both right about what they are thinking. Yes TA is not a solution and yes just by looking at charts you can't make a profit, there is no way that would work because if it worked people would just do TA and make profit constantly without ever losing money in their life.

However TA is not futile neither, without TA you have no idea what the direction of crypto is and that is why you should do TA to have a base to work with. What the true method should be is to do TA but not trade just because of that, just use the TA you do as a base and build on top of that with every other research you can make on the coin.

[Yamifoud]

Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

In fact, many traders don't rely on it but rather to focus on an actual market event. And one reason why charts aren't a big help for traders is that some things happen before that aren't happening today.

Yeah, this is just a tool to make TA's and so we don't have to get it wrong and misunderstood it uses. That is why we can't simply put blame on these charts of our losses because, in the first place, this thing can't give you a guarantee of returns. And if you keep relying on the chart in trading, you will simply ignore the other tools that are more helpful than this https://digitexfutures.com/blog/5-killer-cryptocurrency-trading-tools-have/.

[nelson4lov]

I've read through all replies and I've come to the conclusion that:

— Technical analysis with charts is one of many ways to predict market outcome.

– A serious trader shouldn't depend on charts alone. There are other factors that increases the odds of winning our trades.

– Technical analysis is still a useful tool regardless of its shortcomings.

Personally, I'm a big fan of technical analysis with charts. It does more than just showing different lines on a chart. It gives an idea of what the market condition is at any point. That said, It should be noted that TA is just one of many tools in every trader's toolbox.

[mnporter2001]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TA will help us trade better in the short term and make profits faster. but if you can combine both FA and TA, the percentage of your winnings will be higher, but even if the probability is 90%, the market will still be able to go back at any time. Therefore, we need to have strict trading experience and capital management plan. Trading without strict capital management is like going to battle without armor. You can succeed in many transactions but only 1 failure can take away all your previous success.

[Ann Impas]

Even at 70% you can be called a pro. Because you can't just predict what will happen in the market, how will it react. Even patterns in some cases got denied by the market and goes the other way. But imagine if you have a 100% chance of the market cooperating imagine how much you would earn daily even only with the basic information.

[el kaka22]

I have been trying to learn more technical analysis and I have studied indicators a lot, not just here but I would also like to make some forex trading as well since it looked so much fun. On contrary to popular moving from forex to crypto I would be moving from crypto to forex (not leaving crypto, just adding forex on it).

However on all my training I have done the paper trading method that was suggested, as in check something and see if there is any moment to buy or sell and when you hit that just write it on piece of paper like you would do a trade and when it reaches the other side check what happens. In all my tries I have failed, thank god I was doing paper trading and not real one because I would lost a lot of money. TA looks a bit too confusing for me.

[Shasha80]

Of course, trading is required to do fundamental and technical analysts, even though it only predicts a market of around 70%.
For me it is enough to make decisions in trading, the rest depends on instinct and luck. That's why crypto trading is called high risk,
because of its reality we cannot read charts with a percentage of 100% accuracy. Even professional traders often suffer losses,
that's because no one can be 100% accurate when analyzing a trading chart.

[South Park]

Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

[mersal]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Of someone is able to predict the market at 100% accuracy then the whole crypto market won't be exists now which means 70% is a good value to learn about chart analysis and other factors like news,crypto events, bearish or bullish price trend and lot others as well.

[Oasisman]

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

[Mahanton]

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

[AmoreJaz]

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here