A trading chart does not play out to 100%

[Aaroenz0r]

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here

True! TAs can't help you to predict 100% what gonna happens in the market! So do others skills. There's nothing can give you the correctly direction of the market movement. That's why we call our market is unpredictable! However, having the ability to analyze the charts is quite important! The more you know, the better!

[Botnake]

70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

[Desscount]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

[Blue_oxen]

70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

True! 70% is way too big for just one prediction method. Despite you do all the work you can, combine all of the analysis that you do, you can only predict up to 70-80% of the market. Charts analysis can't guarantee ups to 70% itself. There are other factors such as news, rumors, projects, and whales!

[Lorokan]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

[CaVO32]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

[rexxarofmoknathal]

TA and charts reading is not by any means THE most important factor. So that's definitely not representing 70% of the trading prediction method, it is however a good indicator but for good use it must be used in conjunction with other factors which isn't read in charts I'm afraid.

These include but not limited to news, projects, especially if these are direct competitors in both finance and/or crypto industry.

[dunfida]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

Everything would really be relevant and needs to be learned rather than having nothing while you do trade and of course not all would give out
100% precision or effectiveness into your trade but as said this is a helpful tool for you to have at least have some idea on what would be the
next steps you would take.There are other things needed though for this to be more effective and just like what others said this would particularly
talks about news and rumours. Market neither do react or not into these circumstances.

It might not play out 100% but its better to have this kind of analysis than do trade randomly.

[crwth]

One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

It is not just traders that want an accurate system but also the investors where they could make money out of it. It’s impossible to have a 100% Accuracy, and no one will ever achieve it just because of the unpredictability of the market.

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

[jrrsparkles]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Trading cryptos based on analysis doesn't always give you 100% success its just because its highly volatile so analysis will more suot to stock market but here in crypto currency lot of factors decide the market movement so no one can what will happen to market in the next minute.

[thesmallgod]

There is what is called a predictive model. It allows users to be able to predict future possible outcomes using existing data. Through previous charts, you can able to predict future occurrences but that does not mean the prediction will be accurate. At a particular point on the chart, there are conditions and these conditions are not constant. The reason why people always mention importance of knowing how to read the chart is to be familiar with how trading works

[pawanjain]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?
Fundamental/Technical analysis works good in the stock market but the same doesn't work so well in the crypto market in my opinion.
Other than FA/TA there are many other factors which we should consider before trading/investing in crypto.
Even after that, there's no 100% accuracy of the market to behave according to your analysis because many times it just goes against us.
Holding the asset patiently and tweaking our strategy accordingly can help us gain profits though.

[South Park]

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

You are right, it is impossible for the same market conditions to repeat themselves, however if you choose a pool of assets that are representative of several different markets and you perform a backtest over a period of time long enough to have covered many different economic conditions then if your strategy gives positive results then it means it is way more likely that it can give profits in the future if you perform the same strategy, obviously no one can give an assurance that will be the case but at least a trader or investor doing this should be way more confident about the performance of his strategy.

However there are many biases that we need to be aware when doing something like this, one of the most obvious is the survivorship bias, if during your efforts to backtest a system you only pick good stocks or coins then almost any strategy will come out on top and it will seem to be profitable when the truth is the person doing the test is affecting the results before the test takes place.

[Mrengage]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Let me give you a little tips, when reading charts it's a good spot to also have FA At a standby. Don't follow up trends that indicates buying up instantly without proper analysis.

[Tahsin Kabir Kollol]

While trading chats help us trade successfully most of the time but it is true that it may not always be accurate. Trading charts provide traders with an overview of trading but trading is affected by many other materials. At present, the political decisions of different countries and the standing of big traders have also affected it so the trading chart direction may change suddenly. Although trading charts play a helpful role in trading, some big traders organizations make unreal market overviews and try to make fool other traders through it and this is usually lesser known and is more noticeable in the case of low volume altcoins. So in case of trading, I think it is better to trade by observing the trading chart as well as other ancillary matters.

[Wexnident]

Naturally. There isn't only one future in a sense, and a trading chart could only show one future. There can be said to be an n amount of futures in the universe, and no matter what, one just can't simply predict what would happen in the next minute, hour, day, week, etc. Trading charts are something that let you make a decision based on what you see, but that doesn't mean that it would be the only basis you have on making a decision. It's not like you'd decide to enter a school for pilots just cause you saw your crush there right? And even if you did, that'd be called impulsive decisions. Even having 2 or 3 factors while deciding could still be said as an impulsive one.

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?

Imo, yes. Though you can at the very least put it at the minimum of 50%, since if you were to look at it as to whether you'd only lose or win, chances are 50/50 no matter what TA's you read, no matter how many analysis you do.

[Mpamaegbu]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most...

Even life itself has a limit to guarantee. Remember, no one is promised tomorrow. 70% is bloated. I think it is a bit lower than that.

so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

That's why we are mere humans. It takes an immortal being to know all that's yet to happen.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Well, I am a TA guy but that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to news. News will only speedily drive price to meet and perfect TA.

[Utoy101]

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart  only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading and predicting of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply as well as other activities from the the devs towards developing the project. Sudden fud or related events can also bring about unexpected price movements which would go totally against the readings of the charts

[sweetbet]

Charts rarely play out the way they're drawn. Anything can happen to change the course of the chartered course. Bad news, missed deadlines, BTC dump, etc etc. Fundamentals are far more important to pay attention to.

[harizen]

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply

That's a wrong impression about the trading chart. Charts will never tell you the accurate thing to happen but the "possible" thing that might happen.

Charts are useful because it will show you exactly the current activity at a given trend. Because of that, it will serve as a good reference on what to do next by drawing the possible outcome. It served a purpose.

It's obvious that there are other factors that affect the price movement so rely on those factors too as much as possible aside from chart readings.