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[btc78]

I had posted this some time ago, as you can see we were in a sort of a ascending triangle, so I was expecting a small decline to around 9050, which worked out well, currently im in a long position, looking to hold it till 10700 and then open some shorts

Well something close to your prediction ,as we almost fall to 8k$ level that time but lucky Bitcoin price sustain holding $9k.

How many times do we need to look down when there are some views up?


Bitcoin may not fall under 9k again because we are now sustaining the level in which what the Halving of 2016 brings in this same season.

There are some analysts who predict that if 10 thousand gets broken once again the price will not stay there but overshoot by more than OP is predictiong. It could be 12-15 thousnad this time.

I'm in this camp. If the market breaks above $10.5K then yearly resistance will be broken;

This seems to be legit and yeah after multiple up and down at 10k level?possibilities are there.

[1715069151]

1715069151

[FanEagle]

If the market breaks above $10.5K then yearly resistance will be broken;

That will be as per expectation because all we need right now is breaking $10,500. I'm not expecting there should be few more people still left from booking profits by having targets around $10k levels because only due to those kind of traders and investors we are having $10,000 to $10,500 as the biggest psychological resistance levels. Once those people clearing off their position then we can easily keep moving up.

Bitcoin may not fall under 9k again because we are now sustaining the level in which what the Halving of 2016 brings in this same season.

This was exact my expectation after seeing this June month started with bitcoin prices above $10k levels but things are going complete unpredictable due to ongoing pandemic. Consequences of halving are yet to be experienced; but, we must need pandemic hassles need to be settled down before that.

How many times do we need to look down when there are some views up?

If anybody got that power to foretell me on exact numbers then probably I will try to compete to get listed on forbe's list . Do not be tired on seeing range bounded market; if you find skills to make use of them on your trading then you must be the happiest person for having such a market condition.

[dragonvslinux]

There are some analysts who predict that if 10 thousand gets broken once again the price will not stay there but overshoot by more than OP is predictiong. It could be 12-15 thousnad this time.

I'm in this camp. If the market breaks above $10.5K then yearly resistance will be broken; shorters and sellers will pile back in; technical traders will begin favoring the long side; investors sitting in cash on the fence will buy back in. All of these point to strong upside momentum. In my opinion, the chances of failure at $10.8K are quite small. It'll be clear sailing until we get into the vicinity of the June 2019 blow off top.

My thoughts exactly.

We're about to get a 3rd daily close below the 50-day MA, hinting at a bearish mid-term trend reversal. The last time this happened was in February shortly before the crash to the $3,000s. Before that, it was in November 2019 before the month-long downtrend from the $8,000s to the $6,000s.

We got that third close, that for me confirms the 50 Day MA as resistance. It's an awkward situation, there are clear and distinct macro sized bull flag / bullish ascending triangle patterns, but other indicators such as the 50 MA, as well as the RSI, are pointing towards a bearish correction, that based on past data could indeed go quite deep - even if it doesn't need to. Chart patterns are not in confluence with traditional indicators, at current price levels this isn't the time to be going long or short imo.

Closing today below the 50 Day MA ($9,400 ish) would be even more bearish, but closing above it, followed by moving above $9,600 level (last weeks high), would return most of my bullish sentiment on this time frame, without needing to break $10K in a hurry either. I think the consolidation could last sometime longer though, based on recent price action moving sideways, but we appear to be getting closer to a decision, slowly but surely, no doubt with a few more fake-outs before a genuine decision in price movement.

That said, the Weekly candle didn't end that badly. Many were expecting bearish follow through after the drop the week before (such as myself), but it simply didn't happen.

Despite closing the Week with a red candle (-0.47%), the candle itself was an indecisive doji with a slight bullish bias (despite anyone else's opinions on price structure). The low of the wick to the body was +4.23%, while the top of the wick to the candle body was only -2.69%, this gives it a ratio of being around 60% bullish and 40% bearish:

I had posted this some time ago, as you can see we were in a sort of a ascending triangle, so I was expecting a small decline to around 9050, which worked out well, currently im in a long position, looking to hold it till 10700 and then open some shorts

+1 for the contribution and your accurate prediction so far however, that of the ascending triangle

[exstasie]

We're about to get a 3rd daily close below the 50-day MA, hinting at a bearish mid-term trend reversal. The last time this happened was in February shortly before the crash to the $3,000s. Before that, it was in November 2019 before the month-long downtrend from the $8,000s to the $6,000s.

We got that third close, that for me confirms the 50 Day MA as resistance.

And just like that, we're back above the 50-day MA again!



Stocks go up, Bitcoin goes up. Not much else to say, really. The S&P 500 made a big bullish engulfing throughout the day, right back into the previous range:



Head fakes everywhere.....

[pixie85]

If the recent news about PayPal become true then there's a chance we'll see 15 thosand this year. It's really difficult to predict anything because Bitcoin has its own way where the price reacts to some news and ignores the other and all that people do is try to explain the price action after it happens.

An example of it are crosses on the charts. When Bitcoin reacts to it every single analyst says it's because there was a cross on 1h 4h 1d, and so on. But sometimes it completely ignores crosses.

[bearexin]

Well, we have tried to go above $10k too many times and we have managed to go back down under $10k too many times again, this has happened millions of times so I can't really say I would be shocked if the price doesn't fall under $10k again the next time we move beyond it.

However I think this time it is getting a bit harder to go beyond $10k because the attention is not going towards higher levels but to prevent going lower, and when there is so much buy orders between now and lower you know that people do not want to get low once again. This means if we go beyond $12k and $15k levels that means it will be a lot harder to drop down and that is awesome. However do not forget the power of people who are shorting as well, they have the cash to drop the price very quickly as well.

[exstasie]

If the recent news about PayPal become true then there's a chance we'll see 15 thosand this year.

I hadn't heard about this, thanks for pointing it out. According to Coindesk:

“My understanding is that they are going to allow buys and sells of crypto directly from PayPal and Venmo,” a well-placed industry source told CoinDesk. “They are going to have some sort of a built-in wallet functionality so you can store it there.” 

So basically replicating what Cash App has? Probably a smart move. I'll admit I was surprised at how big BTC is for Cash App's business. Paypal might have taken notice and doesn't want to fall behind as far as P2P payment app features go.

I agree that official news of Paypal integration after all these years could provide a catalyst for a pump. However if they are just now hiring engineers for this, they won't have anything ready for many months.

[dragonvslinux]

I had posted this some time ago, as you can see we were in a sort of a ascending triangle, so I was expecting a small decline to around 9050, which worked out well, currently im in a long position, looking to hold it till 10700 and then open some shorts

I'm not starting to see an argument for $10.7K rejection, based on the bull channel (that I recently adjusted to draw from the 3 points of support):



While I still believe that if $10.5K is broken price is more likely to sail to $12K in a hurry on high volume due the ascending triangle target, admittedly this bull channel is a more accurate pattern than the very much imperfect triangle with the fakeout that previously occurred. Bull flags aren't as likely to break to the upside as ascending triangles either.

Either way, a rejection from this level would be one hell of a bull trap, and we all know Bitcoin likes to provide considerable bull & bear traps that only hindsight can see.

[enhu]

If the recent news about PayPal become true then there's a chance we'll see 15 thosand this year.

I hadn't heard about this, thanks for pointing it out. According to Coindesk:

“My understanding is that they are going to allow buys and sells of crypto directly from PayPal and Venmo,” a well-placed industry source told CoinDesk. “They are going to have some sort of a built-in wallet functionality so you can store it there.” 

So basically replicating what Cash App has? Probably a smart move. I'll admit I was surprised at how big BTC is for Cash App's business. Paypal might have taken notice and doesn't want to fall behind as far as P2P payment app features go.

I agree that official news of Paypal integration after all these years could provide a catalyst for a pump. However if they are just now hiring engineers for this, they won't have anything ready for many months.

Which will likely take 6-12 months before they can test their version of cash app and another months of bug finding.  Many PayPal users could be buying BTC yesterday that made the spike and then the drop happens.  Many speculations about what Paypal would do because they are hiring blockchain engineers.  They might just have their own blockchain for USD for the Cash app like system. If it seems the case then it might not be a catapult.

[STT]

Are we ready for the sharp decrease yet, seems it never continues either side though I'm going to keep expecting it to go down tbh because we've left the trend and last time I was waiting for this it took its sweet time happening also and we did fall big eventually.   A few times its done that, anyway quite a large reversal today which I was watching for yesterday also tbh.



So its not an engulfing bar or anything neat like that.   No new lower low even within recent history and we should be waiting for the daily bar to close but I think its below stall speed which is enough reason for speculators to do their thing and pull money to a more attractive price point.   But maybe the OP idea is not complete yet, I think its done enough upwards and tried enough times already.
9236 just so happens this moment thats a good level to watch to pivot either way on this move today towards substantial or not.

[exstasie]

we got the sharp rise i was thinking of, now we are at a bit of distribution phase, my 10800~ shorts got stopped out but i made more from the long so its fine, we might go a bit more up before any sizable downside

Good to see you back. You still sound bearish. Sizable downside, to where? Still aiming for the $7,000s?

Nothing is official until the June 2019 high is broken, but the break of $10.5K is an early signal of a new bull market for me. I think we'll see a test of $10K again, maybe a short-lived wick into the $9,000s but ultimately I don't think we're returning to the May-June trading range again.

[STT]

Back to the previous range, if it went 12k to 10k and then repeated that'd be not even especially bearish by itself but 2k is a good trade.    Still seems to be keeping its head above the waves and has to be taken as bullish I think.   If we can form some kind of lower high then we could speculate that will let us break down later.    I would guess we are going to be in a range again and lots of guessing but not that much movement.



Its not exactly neat but it is rising, be negative when it breaks 10500 might be the safer thing to say

[Overflask]

Hi everyone,

I am just looking to build up my wallet by increments of a few hundreds. I put in 3000€ via a site called Bitstamp. I noticed it can go from that to 3600€. Should I convert to euros now when it's still at 11800 and buy it back when it hits 10000 or 9000?

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Nothing is official until the June 2019 high is broken, but the break of $10.5K is an early signal of a new bull market for me. I think we'll see a test of $10K again, maybe a short-lived wick into the $9,000s but ultimately I don't think we're returning to the May-June trading range again.

Sounds reasonable to me, don't get why people still think we'll be going down that much naturally without any major fud triggering the market to decline. The market has been very bullish and it's just a matter of time before we tested the $13k - $15k trading price. I think the strong support at the $11k trading value would be able to hold bitcoin trading above $10k for a very long time.

This is just a repeat of what we experience with the price of bitcoin trading within the $9k value until the spike took it to the highs we'll recording now. The increase is more certain than the decrease, that's just my take on the discussion at hand.

[Overflask]

Hi everyone,

I am just looking to build up my wallet by increments of a few hundreds. I put in 3000€ via a site called Bitstamp. I noticed it can go from that to 3600€. Should I convert to euros now when it's still at 11800 and buy it back when it hits 10000 or 9000?

if ur a noob u will lose money trying to trade, its best if you just DCA

Yeah, total noob. Just got into it a month ago. Learned about ATH and a few notions reading conversations here. What is DCA?

[LogitechMouse]

What is DCA?

Dollar Cost Averaging LINK

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases of a target asset in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase.

Sounds reasonable to me, don't get why people still think we'll be going down that much naturally without any major fud triggering the market to decline. The market has been very bullish and it's just a matter of time before we tested the $13k - $15k trading price. I think the strong support at the $11k trading value would be able to hold bitcoin trading above $10k for a very long time.

$10,000 which is the previous very strong psychological support is now the very strong psychological resistance as of this moment.

Yes there is nothing major fud or news that is happening right now that is enough to trigger the market. I believe that the money that is coming right now are coming from the rich people and various institutions that have spare cash to buy Bitcoin and there will be a time that they will dump it to have some profit causing the price to go down for at least a month before a major rally towards the $15,000 to $20,000 will happen. This is just what I've heard from the famous analyst that I've been followed for a long time already.

[Arkann]

Sounds reasonable to me, don't get why people still think we'll be going down that much naturally without any major fud triggering the market to decline. The market has been very bullish and it's just a matter of time before we tested the $13k - $15k trading price. I think the strong support at the $11k trading value would be able to hold bitcoin trading above $10k for a very long time.

$10,000 which is the previous very strong psychological support is now the very strong psychological resistance as of this moment.

Yes there is nothing major fud or news that is happening right now that is enough to trigger the market. I believe that the money that is coming right now are coming from the rich people and various institutions that have spare cash to buy Bitcoin and there will be a time that they will dump it to have some profit causing the price to go down for at least a month before a major rally towards the $15,000 to $20,000 will happen. This is just what I've heard from the famous analyst that I've been followed for a long time already.

One way or another, the current period of the cryptocurrency market is very different from 2017-2018. No matter what news comes, the market will react differently anyway. A certain stability of prices to date, speaks only of strong support from large investors, therefore we can expect better results even before the end of this year.

[exstasie]

we got the sharp rise i was thinking of, now we are at a bit of distribution phase, my 10800~ shorts got stopped out but i made more from the long so its fine, we might go a bit more up before any sizable downside

Good to see you back. You still sound bearish. Sizable downside, to where? Still aiming for the $7,000s?

Nothing is official until the June 2019 high is broken, but the break of $10.5K is an early signal of a new bull market for me. I think we'll see a test of $10K again, maybe a short-lived wick into the $9,000s but ultimately I don't think we're returning to the May-June trading range again.

is 12k to 9k not a sizable downside?

Sure. I only asked what you meant because you didn't provide any target or analysis. Got a chart for us?

If $12K was the top, I could see sub-$9K too. I'm still not sure if $12K was the top though, so I'm hesitant to speculate too much about potential downside.

[shoreno]

One way or another, the current period of the cryptocurrency market is very different from 2017-2018.

theres a slight different from 2017 because the increase right now is not high enough but it retains  . 2018 was a dump year if i still remember which is differrent from this year because earlier this year we already see a growth and it rested for a while but here it goes again .

No matter what news comes, the market will react differently anyway.

many good news arrived last time and that triggered the growth  but there are also bad news but that didnt make the price go down  . news act different now when it comes to bad news

[sana54210]

I doubt that 7k levels are even possible anymore in either this quick of a time or without anything huge happening, I mean at this point I doubt that anything major would happen at anytime soon, which means that in order for the price to go down we need to just wait. Either it will go up or down but for the next month or so I do not think that 7k would be reached.

So long story short price could definitely go down but not to 7k prices anymore if you ask me, it would probably reach to 9k levels at the very best cases (well worst for long ers and not shorters) so if you are waiting for a down, I would say that at around 9k you should be buying, at least if not going all in (which is not advised) go half in from that price, that way you would be profiting when it goes above 10k.