Rise in US unemployment. Thoughts?

[fillippone]

This is the point. COVID was not a temporary effect on the economy. But a permanent distortion that will hinder for many years the growth of economies, also given the heavy burden of the debt we are playing off today.

Have to agree here. The pandemic has caused the bankruptcy of a number of businesses of all sizes. And this is after generous stimulus packages by the governments. Just imagine what could have happened, if the stimulus was not there. Certain sectors, such as aviation and hospitality are completely destroyed. The losses are so huge, that I don't think they'll ever recover.

Stimulus: the more the better according to Jay Powell:

Fed’s Powell Says U.S. Faces ‘Tragic’ Risks From Doing Too Little to Support Economy

The U.S. has replaced roughly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April, at the beginning of the pandemic. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September, from nearly 15% in April.

Mr. Powell said a broader measure of joblessness that better accounts for current conditions, including a large drop in the share of Americans looking for work and greater difficulty characterizing job status due to pandemic-related furloughs, suggested a more realistic measure of unemployment is running around 11%.

This is an interesting article, also noting an asymmetrical approach: while doing to little can be very dangerous for the economy, the same is not true for doing too much.

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[Mauser]

That's right, but looking at how the covid situation is evolving I believe many businesses will slowly think to prepare for a long term depression. This might translate into few new jobs and lots of dismissals. And I am not taking into account that hyperinflation could soon kick in even in the West. For those who have a few bitcoins that will be the time to understand how fortunate we have been to got into it in the first place.

I agree with you, as long as the corona pandemic is going it's very hard to make predictions for the future. If we have to fight in the next few years with corona than it's very likely we will see a long lasting depression. But if we get vaccines for everybody in 2021 I don't see a reason why the economy wouldn't pick up again. Growth is always depending on the expectations of the future and we need a solution for corona to be really optimistic about the future. 

[oHnK]

That's right, but looking at how the covid situation is evolving I believe many businesses will slowly think to prepare for a long term depression. This might translate into few new jobs and lots of dismissals. And I am not taking into account that hyperinflation could soon kick in even in the West. For those who have a few bitcoins that will be the time to understand how fortunate we have been to got into it in the first place.

I agree with you, as long as the corona pandemic is going it's very hard to make predictions for the future. If we have to fight in the next few years with corona than it's very likely we will see a long lasting depression. But if we get vaccines for everybody in 2021 I don't see a reason why the economy wouldn't pick up again. Growth is always depending on the expectations of the future and we need a solution for corona to be really optimistic about the future. 

The fact is that until now the vaccine has not been confirmed to be effective even though it has started to be mass produced by Russia and China.  Without a vaccine, the US economy will be overshadowed by a prolonged recession and worsening unemployment in the US.  A genius leader in the field of economics is needed to steer the country's economy away from the recession.

[bryant.coleman]

The fact is that until now the vaccine has not been confirmed to be effective even though it has started to be mass produced by Russia and China.  Without a vaccine, the US economy will be overshadowed by a prolonged recession and worsening unemployment in the US.  A genius leader in the field of economics is needed to steer the country's economy away from the recession.

Don't be so sure. Even without the vaccine, the US economy is recovering, albeit at a slow pace. The job figures for September shows that the unemployment rate has gone down. If an efficient vaccine becomes available in the market sometime soon, then we can expect the economy to rebound at a good pace. But until then the recovery will continue, at a reduced speed.

[(o)(o)ilikeboobs(o)(o)]

Failure to produce will result in no jobs, no services, and no consumption. A series of consequences from businesses shutting down during a pandemic. It makes the economy go down markedly. From production to service is a domino line, a large part of the labor force comes from the service industry.
It is clear that during the pandemic many businesses have ceased operations and it has a major impact on the US economy. If the pandemic continues, the economic recession and unemployment will become even more severe.

[worldofcoins]

Failure to produce will result in no jobs, no services, and no consumption. A series of consequences from businesses shutting down during a pandemic. It makes the economy go down markedly. From production to service is a domino line, a large part of the labor force comes from the service industry.
It is clear that during the pandemic many businesses have ceased operations and it has a major impact on the US economy. If the pandemic continues, the economic recession and unemployment will become even more severe.

It's all brief everything becomes fine it's incident in my nation as well.
A lot of businesses are getting terminated because of the COVID and many people lost their jobs.
Let this infection get vanish then we'll perceive how soon life becomes too ordinary.

[Vishnu.Reang]

It's all brief everything becomes fine it's incident in my nation as well.
A lot of businesses are getting terminated because of the COVID and many people lost their jobs.
Let this infection get vanish then we'll perceive how soon life becomes too ordinary.

Apart from certain sectors of the economy such as aviation and tourism, the other businesses have resumed operation. Vaccines may not be available in industrial scale for another 6 to 9 months. I don't think that it is logical to shut down the economy for another 6-7 months. We need to get on with our normal routine, while taking the necessary precautions. So we can't wait until "the infection gets vanished".

[fillippone]

<...>
Apart from certain sectors of the economy such as aviation and tourism, the other businesses have resumed operation. Vaccines may not be available in industrial scale for another 6 to 9 months. I don't think that it is logical to shut down the economy for another 6-7 months. We need to get on with our normal routine, while taking the necessary precautions. So we can't wait until "the infection gets vanished".

I don’t know where you got your statistics from, but the reality for many western countries is very different from that picture. COVID damages are far from healed, and in many sectors, I hardly doubt it will be enough to wait for 5 years.
Longer, If we include in the damages the gargantuan amount of new debt in our economies.

[bryant.coleman]

I don’t know where you got your statistics from, but the reality for many western countries is very different from that picture. COVID damages are far from healed, and in many sectors, I hardly doubt it will be enough to wait for 5 years.
Longer, If we include in the damages the gargantuan amount of new debt in our economies.

The impact from COVID 19 will be there for many years to come. But that doesn't mean that we should shut down our economy and stay at home. The economy needs to be restarted. As you said, many of the businesses are in huge debt, and closer to bankruptcy. If they don't do business, then the owners will slip further into debt and this situation is not going to benefit anyone.

[angrynerd88]

Unemployment increases due to many reasons and one of them is poor economy, shortage of industries and the increment in populace. When populace expanded there were more individuals and when more individuals realized they have to be going to college there was a parcel more colleges made and there was a part more taught individuals. Presently which means there's a part more attorneys than required, there are a parcel more specialists than required, there are a part more engineers,doctors,MBA holders  than required, But can’t find the best place to serve. I think people move to crypto and improve skills in crypto beside the professional degree.

[mirakal]

I think people move to crypto and improve skills in crypto beside the professional degree.

That would not help a lot of people, crypto is not as big as the industries of the world where they hire a lot of people to work, crypto is not yet stable and there's no massive adoption yet, therefore job offering is not that big as in the actual world.

The reason for the increase of unemployment is the struggling economy, why? it's because of the pandemic, and therefore we need to solve the problem in order for our economy to slowly get back to its glow.

[Sithara007]

I don’t know where you got your statistics from, but the reality for many western countries is very different from that picture. COVID damages are far from healed, and in many sectors, I hardly doubt it will be enough to wait for 5 years.
Longer, If we include in the damages the gargantuan amount of new debt in our economies.

Have to agree here. US and the European countries are in a very bad state. Most of the EU nations are under strict lockdowns, and the United States is reporting around 3,000 deaths per day from COVID 19. Many of the small businesses are already bankrupt (despite the stimulus) and those which haven't closed down are under enormous strain from new debt. Maybe in the Asian/African nations it is the other way around.

[smyslov]

The reason for the increase of unemployment is the struggling economy, why? it's because of the pandemic, and therefore we need to solve the problem in order for our economy to slowly get back to its glow.

The only solution I can think of is the vaccine, people are restricted in their movement, they cannot go and do what they want to do that is related to their job and they need to stay home most of the time, if we have the vaccine the restriction will vanish and everyone can practice their job because they are free to move and to communicate face to face.

[Cling18]

It also depends on specific state, region and specific field of business, that we're talking about. I know couple of spheres, where employers don't have vacant places for the new potential workers, and knowledge companies which don't know how to deal with the lack of employees...

In our country, the employment rate has risen during the lockdown but since the new normal focuses on E-commerce and virtual jobs, many have found another source of income online. Despite the pandemic, people will always look for ways to survive. I believe that we'll continuously adopt the new normal and we'll all know how to grab the new opportunities that the situation could offer.

[jaysabi]

It also depends on specific state, region and specific field of business, that we're talking about. I know couple of spheres, where employers don't have vacant places for the new potential workers, and knowledge companies which don't know how to deal with the lack of employees...

In our country, the employment rate has risen during the lockdown but since the new normal focuses on E-commerce and virtual jobs, many have found another source of income online. Despite the pandemic, people will always look for ways to survive. I believe that we'll continuously adopt the new normal and we'll all know how to grab the new opportunities that the situation could offer.

With such large and sudden disruptions to employment, there isn’t time for the economy absorb all the unemployed into other jobs or for people to retool to the new economy. The economy has always changed and people (on a macro scale) have always adjusted, but it’s always been slow and gradual. The mass unemployment we see now is the result of the scale and doors of the disruption, and there are no easy fixes to that.

[Swopon]

Unemployment is a curse and if it is in US, then there has something behind it. But in my country, it is quite normal thing to live as unemployment or below poverty level. In US, people want their satisfaction rather than other thing and maybe government failed to serve the enough employment. Like, anyonenyone wants to become a lawyer, there are no open slots currently then that person will not take any job normally and then it will be considered as unemployment due to enough resources.