Rise in US unemployment. Thoughts?

[exstasie]

Cannot be real count. These stats are just showing how many claims made in one week of time. 33 million must be the total claims made for unemployment benefits in last 6/7 weeks and cannot be the total number of people become jobless. (I assume if I apply for unemployment benefits this week then I need to apply again for next week if I still remain unemployed).

I am not sure how this bar chart stats is misinterpreted to total claims when it is showing cumulative data.

It's the total initial claims that were filed. In other words it captures all the people who lost their job and then filed for unemployment benefits. Some of those people have found work since then. I still think it's a meaningful metric because when people lose full-time jobs they are often replaced by temporary or part-time jobs, or they involve transitioning from an employee to IC or gig worker.

The actual count of total unemployed USA people in May 2020 is 21 million. It was 23.1 million April 2020. So, actually 2.1 million people got back to works by this month.

You can refer this news release of bureau of labor statistics(bls) for accurate numbers: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Buried in the fine print of that unemployment report:

Yet the BLS may have severely undercounted the number of workers classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff” due to an error, the agency said.

The BLS determines how many people are unemployed based on a household survey. Survey interviewers misclassified several furloughed workers as being “absent from work due to ‘other reasons,’” according to the BLS.

That’s the same category of workers who’d be on vacation, for example.

The overall unemployment rate would have been “about 3 percentage points higher than reported” if those individuals had been identified correctly, according to the agency. (The estimate isn’t seasonally adjusted.)

That would put the official unemployment rate at 16.3%.

The true rate could be higher still.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html

My back of the envelope calculations say they knowingly under counted by like 4-5 million people.

[Botnake]

I am just worried for my countrymen out there especially for the domestic helpers. I hope they still have their job and not affected of this. If they become unemployed, they are no where else to go, they have no money to be used to provide their needs plus they are far from their homela d and their family. It is very difficult

They have the government to help them, in that case they will have to go back to their country and the let the government provide them a livelihood.

OFW are big contributors to the economy of a country, especially from a 3rd world country so if they are in crisis, for sure there's an allocated funds from the government to help them.  We will never know what would happen as the economic problem will get worse, but we should all be ready and accept all the possibilities so we can survive.

[Yatsan]

The pandemic has been a technological equalizer of sorts, where people previously unaccustomed to using tech tools in the work place have had no choice but to adapt. and in some cases, workers are becoming more efficient. "people have been more patient in learning new technologies and engaging with them, simply because they had to, i think we're all developing new muscle to work virtually.

To that end, expect a generally more agile way of working and communicating with colleagues. more meetings will become emails, and more emails will become instant messages.  

I'm wondering where you get the quotation, but then it turns out that you just copied it on the internet which is against of the forum rules.

Why do you need to plagiarize? I just found the source of your post where you plagiarize it. Why do you need to plagiarize man, I mean every opinion of ours count here in the forum. You should have closed that apostrophe   now say goodbye to your account.

[fillippone]

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Buried in the fine print of that unemployment report:

Yet the BLS may have severely undercounted the number of workers classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff” due to an error, the agency said.

The BLS determines how many people are unemployed based on a household survey. Survey interviewers misclassified several furloughed workers as being “absent from work due to ‘other reasons,’” according to the BLS.

That’s the same category of workers who’d be on vacation, for example.

The overall unemployment rate would have been “about 3 percentage points higher than reported” if those individuals had been identified correctly, according to the agency. (The estimate isn’t seasonally adjusted.)

That would put the official unemployment rate at 16.3%.

The true rate could be higher still.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html

My back of the envelope calculations say they knowingly under counted by like 4-5 million people.

That is quite interesting.
That error was noticed quite immediately in the market, there are people looking quite carefully to those kind of data, but nonetheless the occurrence is quite weird.
I don’t want to say it was a deliberate sabotage, but of course this made easier for “biased” news outlet to pass trhough narratives different from reality.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I am working in the IT sector and now online meetings has become a norm. Client meetings as well as internal discussions are being done with the help of the Zoom application (and obviously some guys are not happy because of its Chinese origins). Now the company has realized that online meetings are much more productive when compared to physical meetings. I hope that they will prioritize online client engagements, even after this pandemic is contained. The growth in the number of people who work from home, and the reduction in company expenses as a result has been one of the few positives from this virus outbreak.

This can obviously mean a loss of jobs, especially in the airline and hotel sectors. If people travel less for business meetings and client engagements, then the hotel/airline occupancy may get hit. But for now, let's talk about the positives.

[suzanne5223]

This can obviously mean a loss of jobs, especially in the airline and hotel sectors. If people travel less for business meetings and client engagements, then the hotel/airline occupancy may get hit. But for now, let's talk about the positives.

Theres no way we'll take about economy this year and we would ignore the negative consequence if the pandemic which was what lead job losses around the world.
Nevertheless, the aviation industry and accommodation/reservation industry are not the only major setting hit by job losses because the banking sectors with the inclusion of oil and gas etc are all affected.
With that been said, the numbers of the US employment provided is not accurate and cant kbow the actual number except we get information of all people that filed for unemployment benefits.

I am working in the IT sector and now online meetings has become a norm. Client meetings as well as internal discussions are being done with the help of the Zoom application (and obviously some guys are not happy because of its Chinese origins).

I'm unware about people not happy because of zoom origin but if it truth, i guess it because the Chinese government intervene in the project with their centralization.

Now the company has realized that online meetings are much more productive when compared to physical meetings.

Google also offer online meeting just like zoom.

[Winciateen]

Trump is trying to restore jobs to Americans who have lost their jobs, so a temporary freeze of foreign workers would be beneficial.
These workers will wait for several months and then they can return to the United States and work again, they can endure for several months.
Workers must tolerate the citizens, they will get 400,000 new jobs and everyone is happy.
Workers will have hard times, pray for them.

[Fenstermach]

The effect will be negative for companies and positive for workers who have lost their jobs in the United States. Many have lost their jobs and it is difficult to allow foreign workers to take those jobs.
The companies will be affected because they need to hire skilled workers, but at much higher prices, which means the need to pay more money.
I do not expect the decision to last for several months, or it may be completed before the end of the third quarter of this year.

[tbterryboy]

The first quote you made there already explains why their government is doing that. I am not going to blame the US government, they are doing what they can to help their own people. Other governments around the world should do the same and help their citizens at least until the pandemic situations gets over if they do not have any permanent policy on jobless and unemployed people.

It really pisses me off when what the government knows is just to stealing from their subjects and making situations worst for them and not providing jobs and other things that are necessary for the survival of their people. Meehn, it’s very bad. This is really a time for change, and the pandemic has taught us a lot, we should be ready to change for good. Although the bad eggs will never agree to that.

[stompix]

And seems like another crisis that was supposed to wipe out the global economy is going to be avoided

US economy smashes forecasts, adds 4.8 million jobs in June
https://www.businessinsider.com/june-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-us-economy-coronavirus-2020-7

Not that surprisingly the economists were again wrong:

American businesses added 4.8 million nonfarm payrolls during the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That exceeded the 3 million payroll additions expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Once everything will open up we could probably back to something close enough to January February levels, just one more month like this and unemployment will fall below the 2009 crisis.

[Russlenat]

More stores are closing.

More than 4,300 stores are closing in 2020 as the retail apocalypse drags on. Here's the full list.

That's equivalent to thousands of employees are getting affected, and that is due to the pandemic.
More and more will close this year, that's for sure as they can't survive with their operation when people are prioritizing to save to survive.

[exstasie]

And seems like another crisis that was supposed to wipe out the global economy is going to be avoided

US economy smashes forecasts, adds 4.8 million jobs in June
https://www.businessinsider.com/june-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-us-economy-coronavirus-2020-7

Not that surprisingly the economists were again wrong:

American businesses added 4.8 million nonfarm payrolls during the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That exceeded the 3 million payroll additions expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

I wouldn't say that. The BLS is still significantly undercounting the unemployed, and they are admitting it too. When you factor that in, those economists were pretty spot on:

In June, there were 17.8 million workers who were officially unemployed, but there were an additional 2.0 million workers who were temporarily unemployed but who were being misclassified as “employed not at work.”

https://www.epi.org/press/two-months-of-gains-but-a-huge-jobs-deficit-remains-and-deepening-pain-is-on-the-horizon-congress-needs-to-act/

Not to mention this:

And 5.0 million who were out of work as a result of the virus were being counted as having dropped out of the labor force. Altogether, that is 24.5 million workers who are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work as a result of the virus.

That's how they massage the numbers so that 15.3% unemployment "officially" becomes 11.1%. Even if we ignore all of that, we're well into reopening and still at double digit unemployment. That's not very encouraging in my view.

[stompix]

That's equivalent to thousands of employees are getting affected, and that is due to the pandemic.

Nope it is not, and the proof is in the article:

Retailers are expected to close more than 4,600 stores this year, following record-high rates of closings last year.
More than 9,300 store closings were announced in the US in 2019, smashing the previous record of roughly 8,000 store closures in 2017, according to an analysis by Business Insider.

So in 2019, we had 9300 stores closing with no pandemic, and this year with the pandemic we had only 4600. And previously in 2018 we had 8000.

Look also at the details about the stores:

Pier 1 said in January that it plans to close 450 stores, representing about half of its total store count, as it struggles to stay afloat after years of falling sales.
GameStop said in March that it closed 333 stores in fiscal 2019 In 2020, the company said it expects store closures "to be equal to or more than the 320 net closures
The stationary chain Papyrus filed for bankruptcy in January and said it plans to close its 254 stores in the US and Canada.
Walgreens announced in August that it planned to close 200 US locations under a multiyear cost-cutting program.
The women's clothing retailer Chico's said last year that it planned to close about 250 stores

Most of those stores would have closed anyhow and the decisions wer made before the virus outbreak

I wouldn't say that. The BLS is still significantly undercounting the unemployed, and they are admitting it too. When you factor that in, those economists were pretty spot on:

Yeah but they have been doing this undercounting for the start, so it's not just that the situation is just as worse now, it's also a fact that the situation was way much worse two months ago.
And about that article, sorry but I couldn't go over all of it, the moment I started reading again about how black people are getting affected more than white people who are getting all the jobs and the injustice in payments for black women, ..I'm tired of anything that touches races right now.

[Russlenat]

That's equivalent to thousands of employees are getting affected, and that is due to the pandemic.

Nope it is not, and the proof is in the article:

Retailers are expected to close more than 4,600 stores this year, following record-high rates of closings last year.
More than 9,300 store closings were announced in the US in 2019, smashing the previous record of roughly 8,000 store closures in 2017, according to an analysis by Business Insider.

So in 2019, we had 9300 stores closing with no pandemic, and this year with the pandemic we had only 4600. And previously in 2018 we had 8000.

Look also at the details about the stores:

Pier 1 said in January that it plans to close 450 stores, representing about half of its total store count, as it struggles to stay afloat after years of falling sales.
GameStop said in March that it closed 333 stores in fiscal 2019 In 2020, the company said it expects store closures "to be equal to or more than the 320 net closures
The stationary chain Papyrus filed for bankruptcy in January and said it plans to close its 254 stores in the US and Canada.
Walgreens announced in August that it planned to close 200 US locations under a multiyear cost-cutting program.
The women's clothing retailer Chico's said last year that it planned to close about 250 stores

Most of those stores would have closed anyhow and the decisions wer made before the virus outbreak

But it's very evident that the corona virus make it worse for them this year.
The figure stated was based on a previous full year record and we can compare it to the current period which are still 1st half of the year.

And this was taken from the article too,..

The number of store closings this year could be even higher than previous records, according to estimates from the real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield. The firm estimated last year — prior to the coronavirus pandemic — that as many as 12,000 major chain stores could close in 2020.

[Chrystora123]

the increase in unemployment is not only happening in the US, my country and also almost all countries experience it.  this happened because of the impact of employers who were unable to pay salaries due to lack of income so they decided to temporarily lay off their employees until conditions improved..

not all many companies decide to lay off their employees, some companies impose work shifts and cut employee salaries by 50-70%.  right now what is in an uproar in my country is the Pizza Hut franchise business owner declaring bankruptcy, they are unable to meet their expenses because it is not balanced with income..

for the moment I don't want to blame the government because after all, they must have worked hard but there is no right solution, they are the same as us, equally affected by this "PANDEMIC"..

[MCobian]

Naturally, the number of unemployed people in America increased, because the corona virus caused companies and merchants to
temporarily close.Therefore there will be more unemployment, but starting this month many companies and merchants have reopened.
Expected to reduce unemployment, but must be careful when reopening companies and merchants. Health protocols must be implemented,
so that no additional corona virus infections occur.

[fillippone]

Naturally, the number of unemployed people in America increased, because the corona virus caused companies and merchants to
temporarily close.Therefore there will be more unemployment, but starting this month many companies and merchants have reopened.
Expected to reduce unemployment, but must be careful when reopening companies and merchants. Health protocols must be implemented,
so that no additional corona virus infections occur.

After this Thursday jobs report showed an unexpectedly positive number, many analysts hurried to underling this was the best result since 1939. Well, of course you have the best number after the worst data in history.
It is yet to see if the recovery will go on in the coming months and at what pace: my suspect is many business simply wont be able to survive the lockdown and so to reabsorb the layoff will be extremely difficult.

[el kaka22]

The trouble is not going to last forever but as long as population rises it will eventually lead to the same thing over and over again. System makes sure that there are crashes time to time which results with middle class to poor class all going down while rich and wealthy get saved, which means they will eventually get to a level where they are too rich and will want to hire more people to become richer obviously.

However, they will once again crash and get bailed out meanwhile firing millions of people and this cycle will continue forever. Remember 2008? There was millions of people out of a job and in big debts back in those days as well. So at the end of the day, this firing period will end and there will be a hiring period but there will be another firing period in the future as well, we have to manage to stop that one.

Just because there was more jobs added, doesn't always mean that everything is fine. The troubles of people still trying to save the government when the other side is saying things could be better is scary.

They are not saying that we should all die or whatever, they are saying that unemployment is a sky high rate that is breaking records and we should be all employed and have federal jobs guarantee, that is really nothing bad, that is really nothing hurtful, its a guarantee that you will be employed one way or another and that is a good thing.

Definitely it looks like companies are hiring people back up, however these are the same companies that got 2 trillion tax cut just a few years ago and the moment something bad happened all the profits, all the stock prices, all the employees were all gone. That shouldn't happen, even companies wouldn't want that, there is no reason to support it.

[exstasie]

After this Thursday jobs report showed an unexpectedly positive number, many analysts hurried to underling this was the best result since 1939. Well, of course you have the best number after the worst data in history.

Not only that but the numbers are juiced. 8.2 million people who want a job but don't have one have been erased from the official unemployment numbers: https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-june-2020.pdf

That's what the BLS does when you can't get a job for so long that you stop looking: they act like you don't exist. Take that into account and 4.8 million jobs added at the height of reopening doesn't look so impressive.

I've never seen such egregious misrepresentations from the BLS before (not even close) as those that have surfaced in the past few months. They also continue to omit millions of unpaid, furloughed workers from the unemployed.

The US government isn't quite as shocking as China with their misrepresentation of unemployment data but it's obvious what they're doing.

[Kemarit]

Naturally, the number of unemployed people in America increased, because the corona virus caused companies and merchants to
temporarily close.Therefore there will be more unemployment, but starting this month many companies and merchants have reopened.
Expected to reduce unemployment, but must be careful when reopening companies and merchants. Health protocols must be implemented,
so that no additional corona virus infections occur.

After this Thursday jobs report showed an unexpectedly positive number, many analysts hurried to underling this was the best result since 1939. Well, of course you have the best number after the worst data in history.
It is yet to see if the recovery will go on in the coming months and at what pace: my suspect is many business simply wont be able to survive the lockdown and so to reabsorb the layoff will be extremely difficult.

Yeah, the numbers could have been jacked up to show that positive numbers. And even if businesses do re-open, their operating capacity should be obviously reduced to 50%. Two days ago, I go out and buy some groceries and I try to check out my favorite restaurants pre-pandemic. I don't see any of their regular employees, but new faces and I was under the impressions that they really reduce the numbers affecting those people that I know.

And those new faces perhaps are being paid less than the 'regulars'. So it will be difficult to reabsorb those who have been lay-off because jobs are scare in this pandemic.