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Author Topic: It's quiet... *too* quiet!  (Read 2698 times)
trogdorjw73
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November 22, 2011, 09:18:30 PM
 #1

So, we've had since about 5AM GMT on Nov. 20 with no super large sell or buy orders, leaving us in a lull of activity while we all wait (and hedge our bets) on the next big move. Up or down, that's the question. A single 10K BTC sell could drop us to $2.19 or so, while a 10K BTC buy would bump us up to $2.40, so not very large movements. 20K BTC would extend the range to $2.15 and $2.47, and 30K would give us $2.12 and $2.59. Of course, that's only if we had a single giant sell/buy order, as a bunch of smaller orders would quickly trigger bots to rearrange the walls. If we follow last month's pattern, we'll have a slow upward trend for the next couple of weeks, but who knows what will happen over the holidays -- any guesses?

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PatrickHarnett
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November 22, 2011, 10:31:18 PM
 #2

wait
Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 22, 2011, 10:34:25 PM
 #3

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

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November 22, 2011, 10:48:15 PM
 #4

What I know of candlestick patterns the rally should be over now and it should go down from here. (Multiple dojis at resistance level)

On the other hand they haven't been very reliable lately.
My other indicators (Aroon Down is spiking while heads downwards goes down) suggests that the bears have taken over at least temporarily but the bulls could get back in the race with a few consecutive buys. The bulls hope is that the bears overdo it again we will move out of the Bollinger Band bounce back in and continue the upwards movement. However if there is a sustained downwards move for over an hour the price would back to 2.2.

A crash is possible in any scenario, it all depends on "The manipulators"

I am liquidating part of my short position as long it is profitable to reduce the risk since I know the sentimental bulls can be quite resentful, just in case they really have enough funds to attempt a short squeeze. Stinks but security goes before profit.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 22, 2011, 11:01:40 PM
 #5

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ
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November 22, 2011, 11:27:57 PM
 #6

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ
Yup.
Or not.

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November 23, 2011, 12:03:12 AM
 #7

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ

shhhh

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 
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November 23, 2011, 12:08:22 AM
 #8

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ

shhhh


btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Nudge nudge, wink wink...


If there are more bids than bitcoins, than it's like the silver market, way more paper than actual physical.

I guess I need to be holding "physical" bitcoin....
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November 23, 2011, 12:10:50 AM
 #9

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ

shhhh

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Which doesn't mean that they gonna stay there...  and that was the case probably when the price was at 20 also... To this comes people tend to sell at a loss if they don't believe in the fundamentals.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 23, 2011, 12:11:30 AM
 #10


It's quiet... *too* quiet!

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 23, 2011, 12:30:55 AM
 #11

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ

shhhh

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Which doesn't mean that they gonna stay there...  and that was the case probably when the price was at 20 also... To this comes people tend to sell at a loss if they don't believe in the fundamentals.

What fundamentals?


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November 23, 2011, 12:33:33 AM
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Demand to use it for barter?

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November 23, 2011, 01:14:17 AM
 #13

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

I think the more relevant bit of information is that there is currently about $600,000 in bids.  There is, undoubtedly, more money than that sitting in MtGox, but that's all that we can see.  Even if there's twice that in MtGox, that isn't that much.  If twice the visible cash were to instantly advance on the supply, then the price would go to just about half the all time high. 
PatrickHarnett
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November 23, 2011, 01:54:56 AM
 #14

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

I think the more relevant bit of information is that there is currently about $600,000 in bids.  There is, undoubtedly, more money than that sitting in MtGox, but that's all that we can see.  Even if there's twice that in MtGox, that isn't that much.  If twice the visible cash were to instantly advance on the supply, then the price would go to just about half the all time high. 

A million (USD1M) would clean out the offers up to $13.30 on Gox, but there is only 264,000 coins for sale there and could all be had for just $3M.

back to waiting now . . . . . . . . . . . .
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November 23, 2011, 04:05:36 AM
 #15


shhhh


btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Nudge nudge, wink wink...


If there are more bids than bitcoins, than it's like the silver market, way more paper than actual physical.

I guess I need to be holding "physical" bitcoin....

No, it doesn't mean that at all. If two people offer to buy my one of a kind time traveling Volkswagen it doesn't mean there is a paper Volkswagen.

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November 23, 2011, 06:11:25 AM
 #16

It's actually quite nice when the price isn't falling 5 or 10% within a few minutes.  Some of the crazy trading action in recent weeks has been triggered by Bitcoinica.  While speculators profit everyone else who wants to use bitcoin for something useful (they do exist, somewhere) are hurt by the massive volatility.

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bb113
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November 23, 2011, 06:20:18 AM
 #17

Market volatility should be driving innovation, not disregarded as "bad". Volatility may be the future that western civ is headed towards, whether bitcoins become widely used or not. If your business can handle bitcoin it can handle anything.
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November 23, 2011, 10:40:02 AM
 #18

Market volatility should be driving innovation, not disregarded as "bad". Volatility may be the future that western civ is headed towards, whether bitcoins become widely used or not. If your business can handle bitcoin it can handle anything.

Merchants usually don't like to receive $10 for their sale... make that $9.50 a minute later.  No, $8.50 5 minutes later.  Oh look, it's up to $11.  No, back to $8.50 again.  It's fun for speculators but not for people who want to know how much money they are getting, one minute to the next.  For the foreseeable future bitcoin is directly tied into the value of other currencies.

A business doesn't have to handle bitcoin at all to be successful (well, unless it's Silk Road).

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November 23, 2011, 12:04:25 PM
 #19

It's funny that, just now, this thread was followed by the "EVERYBODY CALM DOWN" thread.

It's just never right, eh? Grin
StewartJ
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November 23, 2011, 04:29:17 PM
 #20

Going back to the theme of it's too quiet, I have noticed the BTC price chart for the last week where everything seems quite steady.

There are no precipitous drops, a good point of resistance in the $2.20 range, gradual 5% to 10% increase over a few days, a bit of a gradual sell off, and then it repeats.

I know this can change any time, especially with manipulator intervention, but isn't this nice, for now??

SJ
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