Football in China - The Chinese Super League

[tyKiwanuka]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Super_League#/media/File:Chinese_Super_League_Logo_2.png

The Chinese Super League has gained some more recognition in the last years, mainly due to a lot of well-known foreign players having been signed by the teams, that never seem to be short of money. You always have a lot of brazilian players earning their money there and the teams always look to naturalize some of them, to be able to have a stronger squad, since there is a foreign player policy. So it happens that Elkeson or Ricardo Goulart are now chinese citizens. In the last years even more and more foreign coaches moved to China, to earn good money there. Fabio Cannavaro, Vitor Pereira or Rafa Benitez are among them for example.

This league is not as crazy as the chinese Basketball league, but still there are strange things happening and the dynamics are a bit different to what people are used to for example in Europe.

The 2020 season was scheduled to begin in February, but due to Corona it was postponed and starts July 25th now. The teams are split into two groups with a round robin format, followed by a championship stage for the Top4 of each group and a relegation stage for the bottom four teams accordingly. Group A will play in Dalian, group B in Suzhou.

These are the groups:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/football/china/super-league/standings/


For the first round, I would like to recommend the following bets:

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

and

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

Odds are from FortuneJack.

These odds are super value, should be 1.2 for both. Chongqing/Tianjin have huge trouble with their import players and Beijing/Shanghai are far superior anyway. You might want to choose lower stakes, because no one knows, what will happen in first round after Corona issues, but these odds will drop very likely and you can at least hedge them before kick-off. Games are played in neutral location.


Feel free to discuss this league in here, post your picks or add some information (these are often hard to find). But please don't spam useless stuff here or I will have to delete it; this is a self-moderated thread.

[notblox1]

Nice to see chinese super league predictions even if I don't follow this at all,
but maybe you should move this to correct section Gambling discussion:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=228.0

Good luck

[tyKiwanuka]

On paper there look to be loads of good bets; will add these two with medium stakes:

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10
Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Qingdao and Henan are struggling mightily with their personnel - Henan doesn't even have any coaching staff right now -  while Jiangsu/Wuhan have all players/staff available. For those smaller and weaker teams it doesn't matter that much, where they finish in the group stage, they should look to be at their peak in the 2nd phase.


Thanks for the heads up @notblox1, my bad and I fixed it

[Lordhermes]

Chinese super football league has been a hard side for me to predict, in fact I haven't gotten a won tickets ever since placing a bet in Chinese super league games.

On paper there look to be loads of good bets; will add these two with medium stakes:

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10
Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Qingdao and Henan are struggling mightily with their personnel - Henan doesn't even have any coaching staff right now -  while Jiangsu/Wuhan have all players/staff available. For those smaller and weaker teams it doesn't matter that much, where they finish in the group stage, they should look to be at their peak in the 2nd phase.

I think i will go on with your predictions today, let me have a clear winning tickets for the first time on Chinese league. Thanks for your prediction.

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10

Only caught the 2nd half, but Wuhan was in control and weren't challenged too much by poor Qingdao. 2-0 FT


The odds for the main bets Shanghai/Beijing have dropped a bit, but not (yet) as much as I expected. Beijing is 1.40-ish now, SIPG 1.45-ish, but still confident in both bets.

[tyKiwanuka]

Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Crazy match. Henan was already 2-0 up early second half and it didn't look too good, but Jiangsu have the way better bench and scored 4 unanswered then. 3-4 FT.

-

In general, and not only for CSL, I would recommend to look for better odds inplay with football, since from my experience, you will get them like 90% of the time. You will miss out on a few good pre-match bets, but they way better odds you get inplay will easily make up for it. Maybe split your stakes 50/50 for pre-match/inplay and test a bit.

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

This HC parlay is lost already unfortunately. The pitch was more like a swimming pool and Beijing got an early red card on top. They managed to get a 2-0 lead nonetheless, but a late-ish goal from Chongqing lost the HC; 1-2 FT. Beijing was pretty poor overall for my liking and they didn't start with their best possible/allowed line-up. Chongqing did better than expected with no foreign personnel available. Lets hope SIPG will bring the ML parlay home tomorrow.

[AjithBtc]

Football leagues around the world keeps increasing, particularly on the Asian countries. In our country we've got the Indian Super League, which hasn't gained much importance in the beginning. Further with every season the fanbase kept counting. As a result more players were known to the world. This is the first time coming to know about the Chinese Super League. Probably soon we can expect good football teams from Asia.

[tyKiwanuka]

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

An early goal for the opponent is not what you like to see, but Shanghai was superior due to way better quality in their roster and turned it around before halftime, 1-3 FT.

All in all this was a good first round with +14.13 units, that late Chongqing goal still hurts a bit though Next round starts on Thursday, lets see if there will be some good bets again

[samcrypto]

Chinese super league is indeed growing and they keep hiring good foreign players. Just like the last year, looks like GE will still dominate this league though the impact of the virus still affect some of the team players so this league is very challenging.

Football leagues around the world keeps increasing, particularly on the Asian countries. In our country we've got the Indian Super League, which hasn't gained much importance in the beginning. Further with every season the fanbase kept counting. As a result more players were known to the world. This is the first time coming to know about the Chinese Super League. Probably soon we can expect good football teams from Asia.

Football in my country is still far behind, there's no support (maybe a littl), and less exposure. Looking forward to see good football team in Asia, Japan, India and China is already doing good and Asian already have AFC.

[swogerino]

I think this thread is needed here because information about this league it is a bit hard to find compared to other leagues.I am one person that enjoys to bet on leagues like this but I am afraid to do so because of missing information.Also I am afraid as I heard this league is quite corrupted and Sbobet a site which accepts all kind of bets and values can manipulate some of this league games.These are only voices that go around the internet but they have impacted my thinking for this league.

Still congratulations for your first win.

[TalkStar]

Football in my country is still far behind, there's no support (maybe a littl), and less exposure. Looking forward to see good football team in Asia, Japan, India and China is already doing good and Asian already have AFC.

Countries like spain, Italy, England, Germany, Brazil, Argentina and many others are running so many football leagues for a long time but in asian region we don't see this football leagues. For last few years India is running their football league and Indian super league is getting good support from asian football fans.

Football leagues are just not only helping governments to get big amount money but also put positive effects to national team. When local players get the opportunity to play with different foreign players i think it helps them to increase their skills. Which team are doing good in worldcup stage you can give a big portion of credits to their local football leagues.  

By the way good to see a separate thread for Chinese Super League (CSL).

[dothebeats]

I just found about this league a few weeks back and I'm struggling to find some bet predictions for the league that aren't written in Chinese texts and I'm so glad I found this one on bitcointalk. What's crazy about this league is that they aren't really bothering much about imports as long as these imports do their job on the field, and even going so far as helping them get that citizenship to gain more perks and to motivate them even further into playing good.

IAlso I am afraid as I heard this league is quite corrupted and Sbobet a site which accepts all kind of bets and values can manipulate some of this league games.

Heard similar things on some gambling circles of my own though it's really nothing new if some match outcomes are controlled on the inside. Most of the time, these matches will go clean and smooth but there are some instances that makes you think otherwise, so yeah.

[tyKiwanuka]

What's crazy about this league is that they aren't really bothering much about imports as long as these imports do their job on the field, and even going so far as helping them get that citizenship to gain more perks and to motivate them even further into playing good.

Well, getting them citizenship is for very selfish reasons (foreign player policy) and I bet they get good money for it behind the curtains Only few players feel chinese and really want that citizenship no matter what (Ai Kesen aka Elkeson is one of those players imo).
Take for example Sandro Wagner, who was an ok-ish Bundesliga player and even was signed by Bayern Munich, but didn't play a lot because of Lewandowski. He was transferred to Tianjin last year and earns around 7.5mln/year there. At Munich he maybe earned 25% of that. And he clearly stated, that it also was a financial decision being 30+y.o at the time of the transfer already. You can earn very good money there, but for most players it's just a business decision. It's a huge cultural change and not that much of a challenge to play in CSL, so you have to compensate the players financially. If you decide to start that adventure, you are the king though; but the teams also don't hesitate to kick you out again, if you don't perform to their satisfaction

[tyKiwanuka]

Really ugly football we get to see. The football was of course never very good quality-wise, but at least quite entertaining. Now this is just plain boring to watch, even if there are some goals scored.

Some early plays for next round:

Wuhan - Shijazhuang / Wuhan -0.25 @ 1.79 3/10

There isn't a big difference in the foreign players, but Shijazhuang as freshly promoted team has way worse domestic players than Wuhan, who made a good impression thus far. This will be the first real test for Shijazhuang (Hebei got early red card in first game of the season) and I think Wuhan is a bit too much for them at this point.

Qingdao - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai -1.75 @1.70 6/10

Qingdao promoted as well for this season and there is just a class difference between these two. This one should be 4-0+, if SIPG takes Qingdao seriously.

Heibei - Chongqing / Hebei -0.5 @2.05 4/10

Hebei has a good team and good import players and they added another import striker the other day. Chongqing is struggling with their personel - watched todays game and it was just plain awful, even though they got a point and deserved three against poor Tianjin.

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As said earlier, maybe save some money/stakes for live betting, but whatever you do, good luck

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan - Shijazhuang / Wuhan -0.25 @ 1.79 3/10 2-1
Qingdao - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai -1.75 @1.70 6/10 1-1
Heibei - Chongqing / Hebei -0.5 @2.05 4/10 2-2

Poor round with a poor SIPG, who thought they could easily win this and were just able to get a draw with a late penalty after being down a man in second half.
Wuhan was pretty good, should have taken the -0.5 here. I like Shijazhuang though, think they will play a good season for their standards.
Hebei were ahead 2-0 already until 74th minute, but Chongqing was able to make it 2-2 in the closing stages. Odds were a rollercoaster here pre-match and also inplay. Thats the difficulty with CSL, so much going on personnel-wise and information is hard to find.

-7.63 for this round, +6.50 for the season.

[Lordhermes]

U have been checking on your prediction, all seeming to be correct except on a poor result from SIPG, they are a great team with huge potential if winning the game.
I would be betting on your prediction as I have always hate the Chinese super league because of hard result and not easy to predict. I will give it a try in a next prediction line OP.

[tyKiwanuka]

Problem is, the longer the season goes, the more you lose your edge up until the point, where there is next to no edge anymore. The bookmakers have more and more data available, there are no secrets and surprises anymore. And I am not that delusional to think that I can beat the bookies without informational advantage.

For example Chongqing in first game; they had zero foreign players available, because they were all still in quarantine. Bookies didn't know it or didn't bother to price it in. Now teams playing against Chongqing are only allowed to have two foreign players on the pitch, but they can sub fresh ones in etc., so huge advantage. And you have a lot of these little things in the beginning of a season and they make a huge difference. So pre-match you will struggle more to constantly find good bets as the season goes on, but inplay is the way to go in any league anyway imo.

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Chinese Football is very special, if that makes any sense. You have big quality differences even inside a team and the chinese players often rely a bit on the foreign player to make things happen, like "you earn 5mln, me only 500k, so go ahead and show you are worth it". All offensive play is heavily impacted by the often brazilian players who earn their money there. The chinese players are mainly for defending and they are doing quite a good job. You have these fast, versatile and never tired players on the wings and in defensive midfield, plus some 1.80m+ centre backs, who defend the air very well normally. So the foreign player struggle through the middle and high balls into the box are often defended well, since most teams don't have tall strikers. It's very different dynamics than in european football for example, where the teams are more homogenous.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Qingdao are doing ok-ish until now; they still didn't record a single win this season, but only lost once as well (0-4-1). They already played SIPG and Beijing and were able to get a draw out of those games each - in the Beijing game they were already down 0-3 They look very motivated and have a good morale. Tianjin is just a mess right now; they are 0-1-4 with 4-13 goals scored. They had troubles with their import players since the start of the season and today their striker Acheampong got injured again, so they will most likely only play with some german scrub in addition to their chinese players. Not a lot of hope for them right now and a good opportunity for Qingdao to get their first win of the season. A draw would still be only 50% loss with this asian handicap.

[Mumbeeptind1963]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Qingdao are doing ok-ish until now; they still didn't record a single win this season, but only lost once as well (0-4-1). They already played SIPG and Beijing and were able to get a draw out of those games each - in the Beijing game they were already down 0-3 They look very motivated and have a good morale. Tianjin is just a mess right now; they are 0-1-4 with 4-13 goals scored. They had troubles with their import players since the start of the season and today their striker Acheampong got injured again, so they will most likely only play with some german scrub in addition to their chinese players. Not a lot of hope for them right now and a good opportunity for Qingdao to get their first win of the season. A draw would still be only 50% loss with this asian handicap.

I am glad to hear that the Chinese team is good at what they are doing and it seems like they are hardworking and really determined to win their matches and also very eager to bring home the bacon. I can say that this is a good start for them I hope that someday, they will be as good as other professional players around the globe.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Tianjin has sacked their coach Uli Stielike, which is something I don't like for this bet I rarely bet against teams that just sacked their coach or have a new coach, because from my experience these teams do very well in the next games. Everything basically starts at zero, bench players see a new opportunity to get into the team under the new coach and the players from starting XI have to fight to stay in there. So you always have a very motivated side, which most likely wasn't the case before (lots of teams want to get rid of their coaches at some point).

For this thread I will leave the bet as it is, but maybe you want to hedge this bet, if you already placed it. Fortunately the odds have moved in our favour, so you won't lose anything with hedging now  - +0.25 Tianjin @2.10 - and even make a tiny profit. Up to you what you do, I just wanted to share this new development