Football in China - The Chinese Super League

[tyKiwanuka]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Super_League#/media/File:Chinese_Super_League_Logo_2.png

The Chinese Super League has gained some more recognition in the last years, mainly due to a lot of well-known foreign players having been signed by the teams, that never seem to be short of money. You always have a lot of brazilian players earning their money there and the teams always look to naturalize some of them, to be able to have a stronger squad, since there is a foreign player policy. So it happens that Elkeson or Ricardo Goulart are now chinese citizens. In the last years even more and more foreign coaches moved to China, to earn good money there. Fabio Cannavaro, Vitor Pereira or Rafa Benitez are among them for example.

This league is not as crazy as the chinese Basketball league, but still there are strange things happening and the dynamics are a bit different to what people are used to for example in Europe.

The 2020 season was scheduled to begin in February, but due to Corona it was postponed and starts July 25th now. The teams are split into two groups with a round robin format, followed by a championship stage for the Top4 of each group and a relegation stage for the bottom four teams accordingly. Group A will play in Dalian, group B in Suzhou.

These are the groups:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/football/china/super-league/standings/


For the first round, I would like to recommend the following bets:

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

and

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

Odds are from FortuneJack.

These odds are super value, should be 1.2 for both. Chongqing/Tianjin have huge trouble with their import players and Beijing/Shanghai are far superior anyway. You might want to choose lower stakes, because no one knows, what will happen in first round after Corona issues, but these odds will drop very likely and you can at least hedge them before kick-off. Games are played in neutral location.


Feel free to discuss this league in here, post your picks or add some information (these are often hard to find). But please don't spam useless stuff here or I will have to delete it; this is a self-moderated thread.

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[notblox1]

Nice to see chinese super league predictions even if I don't follow this at all,
but maybe you should move this to correct section Gambling discussion:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=228.0

Good luck

[tyKiwanuka]

On paper there look to be loads of good bets; will add these two with medium stakes:

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10
Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Qingdao and Henan are struggling mightily with their personnel - Henan doesn't even have any coaching staff right now -  while Jiangsu/Wuhan have all players/staff available. For those smaller and weaker teams it doesn't matter that much, where they finish in the group stage, they should look to be at their peak in the 2nd phase.


Thanks for the heads up @notblox1, my bad and I fixed it

[Lordhermes]

Chinese super football league has been a hard side for me to predict, in fact I haven't gotten a won tickets ever since placing a bet in Chinese super league games.

On paper there look to be loads of good bets; will add these two with medium stakes:

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10
Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Qingdao and Henan are struggling mightily with their personnel - Henan doesn't even have any coaching staff right now -  while Jiangsu/Wuhan have all players/staff available. For those smaller and weaker teams it doesn't matter that much, where they finish in the group stage, they should look to be at their peak in the 2nd phase.

I think i will go on with your predictions today, let me have a clear winning tickets for the first time on Chinese league. Thanks for your prediction.

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan - Qingdao Wuhan -0.25 @1.88 4/10

Only caught the 2nd half, but Wuhan was in control and weren't challenged too much by poor Qingdao. 2-0 FT


The odds for the main bets Shanghai/Beijing have dropped a bit, but not (yet) as much as I expected. Beijing is 1.40-ish now, SIPG 1.45-ish, but still confident in both bets.

[tyKiwanuka]

Henan - Jiangsu Jiangsu ML @1.65 4/10

Crazy match. Henan was already 2-0 up early second half and it didn't look too good, but Jiangsu have the way better bench and scored 4 unanswered then. 3-4 FT.

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In general, and not only for CSL, I would recommend to look for better odds inplay with football, since from my experience, you will get them like 90% of the time. You will miss out on a few good pre-match bets, but they way better odds you get inplay will easily make up for it. Maybe split your stakes 50/50 for pre-match/inplay and test a bit.

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

This HC parlay is lost already unfortunately. The pitch was more like a swimming pool and Beijing got an early red card on top. They managed to get a 2-0 lead nonetheless, but a late-ish goal from Chongqing lost the HC; 1-2 FT. Beijing was pretty poor overall for my liking and they didn't start with their best possible/allowed line-up. Chongqing did better than expected with no foreign personnel available. Lets hope SIPG will bring the ML parlay home tomorrow.

[AjithBtc]

Football leagues around the world keeps increasing, particularly on the Asian countries. In our country we've got the Indian Super League, which hasn't gained much importance in the beginning. Further with every season the fanbase kept counting. As a result more players were known to the world. This is the first time coming to know about the Chinese Super League. Probably soon we can expect good football teams from Asia.

[tyKiwanuka]

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

An early goal for the opponent is not what you like to see, but Shanghai was superior due to way better quality in their roster and turned it around before halftime, 1-3 FT.

All in all this was a good first round with +14.13 units, that late Chongqing goal still hurts a bit though Next round starts on Thursday, lets see if there will be some good bets again

[samcrypto]

Chinese super league is indeed growing and they keep hiring good foreign players. Just like the last year, looks like GE will still dominate this league though the impact of the virus still affect some of the team players so this league is very challenging.

Football leagues around the world keeps increasing, particularly on the Asian countries. In our country we've got the Indian Super League, which hasn't gained much importance in the beginning. Further with every season the fanbase kept counting. As a result more players were known to the world. This is the first time coming to know about the Chinese Super League. Probably soon we can expect good football teams from Asia.

Football in my country is still far behind, there's no support (maybe a littl), and less exposure. Looking forward to see good football team in Asia, Japan, India and China is already doing good and Asian already have AFC.

[swogerino]

I think this thread is needed here because information about this league it is a bit hard to find compared to other leagues.I am one person that enjoys to bet on leagues like this but I am afraid to do so because of missing information.Also I am afraid as I heard this league is quite corrupted and Sbobet a site which accepts all kind of bets and values can manipulate some of this league games.These are only voices that go around the internet but they have impacted my thinking for this league.

Still congratulations for your first win.

[TalkStar]

Football in my country is still far behind, there's no support (maybe a littl), and less exposure. Looking forward to see good football team in Asia, Japan, India and China is already doing good and Asian already have AFC.

Countries like spain, Italy, England, Germany, Brazil, Argentina and many others are running so many football leagues for a long time but in asian region we don't see this football leagues. For last few years India is running their football league and Indian super league is getting good support from asian football fans.

Football leagues are just not only helping governments to get big amount money but also put positive effects to national team. When local players get the opportunity to play with different foreign players i think it helps them to increase their skills. Which team are doing good in worldcup stage you can give a big portion of credits to their local football leagues.  

By the way good to see a separate thread for Chinese Super League (CSL).

[dothebeats]

I just found about this league a few weeks back and I'm struggling to find some bet predictions for the league that aren't written in Chinese texts and I'm so glad I found this one on bitcointalk. What's crazy about this league is that they aren't really bothering much about imports as long as these imports do their job on the field, and even going so far as helping them get that citizenship to gain more perks and to motivate them even further into playing good.

IAlso I am afraid as I heard this league is quite corrupted and Sbobet a site which accepts all kind of bets and values can manipulate some of this league games.

Heard similar things on some gambling circles of my own though it's really nothing new if some match outcomes are controlled on the inside. Most of the time, these matches will go clean and smooth but there are some instances that makes you think otherwise, so yeah.

[tyKiwanuka]

What's crazy about this league is that they aren't really bothering much about imports as long as these imports do their job on the field, and even going so far as helping them get that citizenship to gain more perks and to motivate them even further into playing good.

Well, getting them citizenship is for very selfish reasons (foreign player policy) and I bet they get good money for it behind the curtains Only few players feel chinese and really want that citizenship no matter what (Ai Kesen aka Elkeson is one of those players imo).
Take for example Sandro Wagner, who was an ok-ish Bundesliga player and even was signed by Bayern Munich, but didn't play a lot because of Lewandowski. He was transferred to Tianjin last year and earns around 7.5mln/year there. At Munich he maybe earned 25% of that. And he clearly stated, that it also was a financial decision being 30+y.o at the time of the transfer already. You can earn very good money there, but for most players it's just a business decision. It's a huge cultural change and not that much of a challenge to play in CSL, so you have to compensate the players financially. If you decide to start that adventure, you are the king though; but the teams also don't hesitate to kick you out again, if you don't perform to their satisfaction

[tyKiwanuka]

Really ugly football we get to see. The football was of course never very good quality-wise, but at least quite entertaining. Now this is just plain boring to watch, even if there are some goals scored.

Some early plays for next round:

Wuhan - Shijazhuang / Wuhan -0.25 @ 1.79 3/10

There isn't a big difference in the foreign players, but Shijazhuang as freshly promoted team has way worse domestic players than Wuhan, who made a good impression thus far. This will be the first real test for Shijazhuang (Hebei got early red card in first game of the season) and I think Wuhan is a bit too much for them at this point.

Qingdao - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai -1.75 @1.70 6/10

Qingdao promoted as well for this season and there is just a class difference between these two. This one should be 4-0+, if SIPG takes Qingdao seriously.

Heibei - Chongqing / Hebei -0.5 @2.05 4/10

Hebei has a good team and good import players and they added another import striker the other day. Chongqing is struggling with their personel - watched todays game and it was just plain awful, even though they got a point and deserved three against poor Tianjin.

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As said earlier, maybe save some money/stakes for live betting, but whatever you do, good luck

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan - Shijazhuang / Wuhan -0.25 @ 1.79 3/10 2-1
Qingdao - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai -1.75 @1.70 6/10 1-1
Heibei - Chongqing / Hebei -0.5 @2.05 4/10 2-2

Poor round with a poor SIPG, who thought they could easily win this and were just able to get a draw with a late penalty after being down a man in second half.
Wuhan was pretty good, should have taken the -0.5 here. I like Shijazhuang though, think they will play a good season for their standards.
Hebei were ahead 2-0 already until 74th minute, but Chongqing was able to make it 2-2 in the closing stages. Odds were a rollercoaster here pre-match and also inplay. Thats the difficulty with CSL, so much going on personnel-wise and information is hard to find.

-7.63 for this round, +6.50 for the season.

[Lordhermes]

U have been checking on your prediction, all seeming to be correct except on a poor result from SIPG, they are a great team with huge potential if winning the game.
I would be betting on your prediction as I have always hate the Chinese super league because of hard result and not easy to predict. I will give it a try in a next prediction line OP.

[tyKiwanuka]

Problem is, the longer the season goes, the more you lose your edge up until the point, where there is next to no edge anymore. The bookmakers have more and more data available, there are no secrets and surprises anymore. And I am not that delusional to think that I can beat the bookies without informational advantage.

For example Chongqing in first game; they had zero foreign players available, because they were all still in quarantine. Bookies didn't know it or didn't bother to price it in. Now teams playing against Chongqing are only allowed to have two foreign players on the pitch, but they can sub fresh ones in etc., so huge advantage. And you have a lot of these little things in the beginning of a season and they make a huge difference. So pre-match you will struggle more to constantly find good bets as the season goes on, but inplay is the way to go in any league anyway imo.

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Chinese Football is very special, if that makes any sense. You have big quality differences even inside a team and the chinese players often rely a bit on the foreign player to make things happen, like "you earn 5mln, me only 500k, so go ahead and show you are worth it". All offensive play is heavily impacted by the often brazilian players who earn their money there. The chinese players are mainly for defending and they are doing quite a good job. You have these fast, versatile and never tired players on the wings and in defensive midfield, plus some 1.80m+ centre backs, who defend the air very well normally. So the foreign player struggle through the middle and high balls into the box are often defended well, since most teams don't have tall strikers. It's very different dynamics than in european football for example, where the teams are more homogenous.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Qingdao are doing ok-ish until now; they still didn't record a single win this season, but only lost once as well (0-4-1). They already played SIPG and Beijing and were able to get a draw out of those games each - in the Beijing game they were already down 0-3 They look very motivated and have a good morale. Tianjin is just a mess right now; they are 0-1-4 with 4-13 goals scored. They had troubles with their import players since the start of the season and today their striker Acheampong got injured again, so they will most likely only play with some german scrub in addition to their chinese players. Not a lot of hope for them right now and a good opportunity for Qingdao to get their first win of the season. A draw would still be only 50% loss with this asian handicap.

[Mumbeeptind1963]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Qingdao are doing ok-ish until now; they still didn't record a single win this season, but only lost once as well (0-4-1). They already played SIPG and Beijing and were able to get a draw out of those games each - in the Beijing game they were already down 0-3 They look very motivated and have a good morale. Tianjin is just a mess right now; they are 0-1-4 with 4-13 goals scored. They had troubles with their import players since the start of the season and today their striker Acheampong got injured again, so they will most likely only play with some german scrub in addition to their chinese players. Not a lot of hope for them right now and a good opportunity for Qingdao to get their first win of the season. A draw would still be only 50% loss with this asian handicap.

I am glad to hear that the Chinese team is good at what they are doing and it seems like they are hardworking and really determined to win their matches and also very eager to bring home the bacon. I can say that this is a good start for them I hope that someday, they will be as good as other professional players around the globe.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Tianjin has sacked their coach Uli Stielike, which is something I don't like for this bet I rarely bet against teams that just sacked their coach or have a new coach, because from my experience these teams do very well in the next games. Everything basically starts at zero, bench players see a new opportunity to get into the team under the new coach and the players from starting XI have to fight to stay in there. So you always have a very motivated side, which most likely wasn't the case before (lots of teams want to get rid of their coaches at some point).

For this thread I will leave the bet as it is, but maybe you want to hedge this bet, if you already placed it. Fortunately the odds have moved in our favour, so you won't lose anything with hedging now  - +0.25 Tianjin @2.10 - and even make a tiny profit. Up to you what you do, I just wanted to share this new development

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Qingdao / Qingdao -0.25 @ 1.93 5/10

Didn't watch that one, but looks like a comfortable win more or less, +4,65 here.


Shijazhuang - Beijing / Beijing ML @1.60 6/10

Beijing lost the big game against SIPG today, but they are still top team in CSL all things considered. Shijazhuang is doing pretty good after promoting. They have good foreign players and are pretty in sync all in all - their chinese players are weak though. Beijing is the way better team and 1.60 is just too much, when they lost today and want to go back to winning asap (they drew the game before as well). Shijazhuang seems a good opponent to get a win again after two unsuccessful tries

[tyKiwanuka]

Shijazhuang - Beijing / Beijing ML @1.60 6/10

Beijing got a red card late in first half when the game was 1-1. Hard to get the 3 points then, 2-2FT, -6.00.


For next round:

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10

R&F is struggling a lot this season, especially upfront, which is unusual for them. Now they will also miss their top striker Zahavi, because he travelled to Israel to play the UEFA Nations League. These odds are very wrong.

Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10

Guangzhou is still the best team for me in CSL and Shanghai will miss their top player El Shaarawy in this game, because he also left China for UNL.

Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10

This one is wrongly priced, Shijazhuang can’t be favourite here. I am expecting Shijazhuang to fade a bit the longer the season goes, since their Chinese players are weak. Hebei is a solid side and should get a draw here minimum.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10 -> 2-0
Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10 -> 1-4
Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10 -> 1-3

Odds went down nicely for all the picks (Shenzhen ~1.45, Guangzhou ~1.50, Hebei ~1.50), but Hebei disappointed us, although they took the lead. But looked like it was good value, you won't always win value bets though  +4.35 for this round, +9.50 for the season, slow and steady wins the race

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For tomorrows match between Qingdao and Wuhan, the odds for Wuhan looked good, when they came out, because Qingdao will miss one of their foreign players due to red card in last match. They don't have a proper replacement for him and Wuhan is a very solid team. Odds have come down quite a lot though and not worth pre-match anymore. But if anyone is bored, watches/follows the game, you might consider putting a bet on Wuhan live.

[Trofo]

For tomorrows match between Qingdao and Wuhan, the odds for Wuhan looked good, when they came out, because Qingdao will miss one of their foreign players due to red card in last match. They don't have a proper replacement for him and Wuhan is a very solid team. Odds have come down quite a lot though and not worth pre-match anymore. But if anyone is bored, watches/follows the game, you might consider putting a bet on Wuhan live.

I am bit concerned for that bet since Wuhan plays much better on home turf and I would never put a bet on them in away fixture under normal circumstances. I can see the odds @2.0 at the moment for Wuhan win but I would much rather take both to score @1.7 since Wuhan defense looks criminal away. Which player got the red card, Roman Alesandrini maybe? If affirmative I am skipping this match, he is by far the most dangerous Qingdao player.

Great thread, info is really hard to find on these matches so much appreciated for the the stuff you write.

I started following Chinese league much more these last few weeks since I am working from home and often need something in the background to make the time pass faster. I am mostly betting on both to score market since I still manage to find solid odds and the strike rate is quite good. Will chime in with few of my tips so that you are not the only one posting here.

Here is my morning multi which thankfully passed without problems.

That was both to score in first Chinese match and home win in second + a little bit of DOTA.

[tyKiwanuka]

Wuhan defense looks criminal away. Which player got the red card, Roman Alesandrini maybe?

Yes, Alessandrini. Didn't read yet for how many games he will be suspended, but since it was unsportsmanlike conduct, it will be 2+ games imo.

I am bit concerned for that bet since Wuhan plays much better on home turf (...)

There is no home/away They play in a bubble, Group A in Dalian, group B in Suzhou. The pitch in one of the stadiums (don't remember which one) is already in such bad condition that they play on some practice ground nearby. Heavy rains, hot and humid weather on top; this is a wild league, but gratz for your parlay

[Trofo]

There is no home/away They play in a bubble, Group A in Dalian, group B in Suzhou. The pitch in one of the stadiums (don't remember which one) is already in such bad condition that they play on some practice ground nearby. Heavy rains, hot and humid weather on top; this is a wild league, but gratz for your parlay

See, now I fell like a fool. I am basing a lot of my pics on statistics in these leagues I don't usually follow and home/away is the very important part of that analyses. What is even worse these Chinese clubs often behave like there is a home team advantage. I guess it must be an anomaly but check stats a bit. They are definitely slanted in favor of "home" teams.

For instance Hebei should have won easy today if we take away "home advantage". They are much better team IMHO.

[tyKiwanuka]

For instance Hebei should have won easy today if we take away "home advantage". They are much better team IMHO.

They definitely are, thats why I picked them. They were 3.0+ when odds came out and 2.30-ish before kick-off, so initial prices were wrong. Hebei has better foreign players and better chinese players, but thats not always enough in football Shijazhuang is doing pretty good, they have good team chemistry, players are in sync and they still live from the promotion hype a bit. But at some point they will start to fade and lose more games. You can compensate lack of quality only for so long.

I guess it must be an anomaly but check stats a bit. They are definitely slanted in favor of "home" teams.

I didn't notice thus far, because I disregard home/away in CSL for the moment completely (makes no sense when in a bubble^^). But a quick glance at the stats shows Group A doing poor at "home" and being strong in "away" games in general. It's the complete opposite for Group B. Maybe you found a pattern here

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua / Shenzhen AH0 @1.77 5/10

Same reasoning as the last bet against Shanghai: They are still missing their best player in El Shaarawy. Shenzhen is on a good run lately and should get a draw here minimum.

Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou R&F / Evergrande ML (1.14)
Hebei - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai ML (1.41)
Wuhan - Beijing / Beijing ML (1,56)
Parlay @2.508 3/10

Not a big fan of such parlays, but the 3 top teams just are in another league quality-wise. Beijing wasn't very convincing up until now, but showed a good performance in their last match crushing Qingdao 5-2, lets see, if they can back it up, they are super strong team if everything clicks for them.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua / Shenzhen AH0 @1.77 5/10

Nothing to see here, 0-0 FT.

The above parlay is still alive thanks to the R&F keeper, who probably had a huge bet himself on Evergrande


Adding one bet for tomorrow:

Qingdao - Shijazhuang / Qingdao +0.5 @1.89 4/10

Qingdao's Alessandrini was surprisingly only suspended for one game after his red card against Hebei and will be available for them again, which is a huge boost. Another import, who was injured, might give his comeback for Qingdao as well, but only some minutes, nothing more to be expected.
For Shijazhuang there are some bad news, since one of their best chinese players had season-ending injury - and as said before, they already have quite weak chinese players and replacing the better ones is a difficult task. Considering all this, these odds for Qingdao not to lose look very nice and are worth a medium punt.

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangzhou R&F / Evergrande ML (1.14) -> 2-1
Hebei - Shanghai SIPG / Shanghai ML (1.41) -> 2-0
Wuhan - Beijing / Beijing ML (1,56) -> 2-2
Parlay @2.508 3/10

Well, these parlays just suck and always sucked, rightfully lost

Qingdao - Shijazhuang / Qingdao +0.5 @1.89 4/10 -> 0-1

A bit annoying since the game winning goal came very late, but very deserved win for Shijazhuang, Qingdao was just pathetic. I am beginning to hate Shijazhuang, so many lost bets with them. Maybe time to do some Martingale against them

Not a good round all in all, but still slight profit for the season.


Chongqing - Hebei / Hebei -0.25 @1.83 5/10

When you beat SIPG, you shouldn't be -0.25 against poor Chongqing, but -0.5. For Hebei it's vital to take the 3 points here, since it would strengthen their top4 position - and if you want to get into top4, you just have to beat Chongqing. Chongqing themselves won't make the top4 anyway, so motivation clearly on Hebei's side. Chongqing won just two games thus far (Tianjin, Shijazhuang) and I doubt they will make that three in this game. A draw is still possible, but we only lose half stake then.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong / under 2.5 @2.13 4/10

Not a fan of unders, but often times good value can be found (and you can often hedge inplay). Both these teams have a very good defense and as we know Shanghai is still missing their best player. They had two scoreless draws in their last 3. Shandong can potentially score a lot, but they failed to score even once in their last two matches, so they are struggling offensively and against this Shanghai defense it won't get any easier. Hopefully something like 0-0/0-1/0-2 here

[tyKiwanuka]

Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong / under 2.5 @2.13 4/10

This was relatively easy, some minutes of sweating after Shanghai managed to equalize late in the game, but 1-1 FT. Playing unders is really annoying, I can literally not watch/enjoy the game


Henan - Shenzhen / Shenzhen ML @1.94 5/10

Henan is a mess right now and as it seems they will miss an important striker on top for this game. They have very slim chances to qualify for Top4, so they won't be too motivated. Shenzhen still has very good chances for Top4 and have been doing ok in the last weeks (losing to Guangzhou is nothing to be ashamed of). 1.94 is still ok, but I wouldn't place a bet if it goes below 1.80.

Dalian - Shanghai Shenhua / Dalian -0.25 @1.76 4/10

Shanghai will keep playing with only two import players, which is a huge disadvantage. Dalian has full squad and amongst them some very good import players (Hamsik f.e.). They had good results lately and are still fighting to get into Top4. With a win here, they could catch up with Shanghai. A draw is very likely (Shanghai has good defense as said before) and probably the result Shanghai is aiming for in first place, so the -0.25 gives a little bit of insurance.

[tyKiwanuka]

Chongqing - Hebei / Hebei -0.25 @1.83 5/10

Henan - Shenzhen / Shenzhen ML @1.94 5/10
Dalian - Shanghai Shenhua / Dalian -0.25 @1.76 4/10

Hebei really pathetic, even lost the game, which gives Chongqing some hope for Top4 again, 3-1 FT.
Shenzhen lead 3-0 early, 3-1 FT, no sweat.
Some bad luck again with a late goal against us in the Dalian game, 1-1 FT, but only half stake lost

These are the stats for the season so far:

Profit: +4.72   
Yield: 5.55%   
W-L: 9-9-1
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.47   
Average Odds: 2.11

Not very happy with those, has to get better, but at least no loss


Tianjin Teda - Shijazhuang / Shijazhuang ML @2.07 4/10

This time a bet on Shijazhuang and not against them. According to Murphys Law, they will not win now But they are really on a good run and 3 points in this match will bring them a big step nearer the Top4. Wuhan and Hebei have very hard matches against SIPG/Beijing, so Shijazhuang could run away a bit from those two in the table. Tianjin has nothing to play for and with 0-1-9 and 7-25 goal differential they are by far the worst team in CSL right now. These two teams will meet in a cup match on September 19th and Tianjin will probably concentrate on that one and rest some players. A 3for3 is also possible (Shijazhuang gets the 3 points in league match and Tianjin gets the cup win). First match was 3-0 for Shijazhuang earlier this season.

[tyKiwanuka]

Tianjin Teda - Shijazhuang / Shijazhuang ML @2.07 4/10

No more bets involving Shijazhuang, they never do what they are supposed to do 1-1 FT


A bet from Chinese Cup for today, starting in around 2 hours:

Guangzhou Evergrande - Henan / Guangzhou AHC -2 @1.775 8/10

Big bet here, since Henan will rest some players and be without any import players today from what I heard. Henan is poor anyway as I wrote above, the last results against poorer opposition and with full squad: 1-3 / 1-3 / 0-4 / 2-5. Evergrande should at least win with two goal margin (push then), but this could also be a blowout like 5-0+.

[tyKiwanuka]

Didn't have a lot of time for China football recently and beginning of a season is always the most interesting/profitable anyway. There is some interesting bet for tomorrow in Jia League though, which is the second division in China.

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10. Last round in the relegation groups tomorrow and Shaanxi is already safe, while a point for Suzhou is enough to avoid relegation. Shaanxi will not bother with this one and Suzhou would probably sign a 0-0 prematch. Thus DNB is maybe not the most clever choice, 1X pays around 1.50-ish, which one can maybe parlay with some other game.

Another interesting bet would be Guizhou 1X vs Beijing Renhe @1.95, but I won't play it. Guizhou is safe as well and has been doing really good, leading the table. They have better quality, but their motivation for this one is questionable, although everyone always likes to beat the teams from the capital. Beijing are in still in danger of relegating, a draw won't be enough most likely, they have to win. Their big issue is money and the players didn't get their wages for quite some time. Hard to judge, if the players are super eager to avoid relegation. If they do, there is a higher possibility of maybe getting paid, but otoh they are probably pretty disappointed with how things went in the last weeks. Judge for yourself, if this is worth a bet

Guangzhou Evergrande - Henan / Guangzhou AHC -2 @1.775 8/10

This was ages ago, but for the record, it ended 2-0 and was a push thus.

[Trofo]

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10. Last round in the relegation groups tomorrow and Shaanxi is already safe, while a point for Suzhou is enough to avoid relegation. Shaanxi will not bother with this one and Suzhou would probably sign a 0-0 prematch. Thus DNB is maybe not the most clever choice, 1X pays around 1.50-ish, which one can maybe parlay with some other game.

I thought you have given up on this thread
There was some unexpected (at least for me) results in play offs so I started to skip on the league as well.

Thanks for the info. This is just what I am looking for for my 5x insured & boosted parlay on Sportsbet. Just hope those odds will still be 1.5 or higher tomorrow when I can actually play it.

[tyKiwanuka]

I thought you have given up on this thread

Hehe, no, I normally keep going with the threads I open, but there might be times of silence (same with the CBA thread, where a new season has started again some time ago), when other things are more important. Doing things half-heartedly is not a good recipe when betting, you will just lose money, so better to put things on hold for the time being. And as said, China football isn't that profitable mid-season and with this new format due to Corona things were a bit different anyway.

[BestBitcoinCasino]

This is interesting! Does OP happen to know how popular CSL is in China? Also, do we have foreign bettors who are keen on placing wagers on CSL?

[tyKiwanuka]

This is interesting! Does OP happen to know how popular CSL is in China? Also, do we have foreign bettors who are keen on placing wagers on CSL?

It's not that popular like the big european leagues and competitions, but it has gotten more interest over the last years, because a lot of well-known import players were brought into the league. That being said, there is not much interest outside of China fan-wise. The quality is still lacking overall and it's a very unique league with lots of drama behind the scenes and money plays a big role. It's not organically growing and the teams are often just toys for some big investors. The CCP has some say here and there as well of course, as in all matters in China It's a very capitalistic league in a still officially communist country.

There are foreign bettors for sure, because this league has one big advantage: The time when the matches are played During the week there is very few kind of good football during the day for european betting people. The matches are usually played around noon/early afternoon european time and thus this attracts punters who are bored while waiting for some bigger european matches in the evening.

Suzhou - Shaanxi -> Suzhou DNB @2.00 6/10.
Another interesting bet would be Guizhou 1X vs Beijing Renhe @1.95, but I won't play it.

As expected, Shaanxi wasn't really interested and Suzhou won 1-0 with an early goal in HT2.
Guizhou sent Beijing into Div3 with a 3-0 win, but as said, I didn't have a bet there, but maybe someone else was brave enough

[tyKiwanuka]

One bet for FA Cup for tomorrow.

Jiangsu - Tianjin Teda -> Tianjin +0.25 @1.90

Jiangsu will be playing this one without any foreign players, while Tianjin has 3 of them available, which is a huge advantage and Jiangsu can't be favourite here under these circumstances. Game will be played in neutral location. Some sources say it's the first leg, but it's actually only this one game, no 2nd leg. If the game is tied after 90min, there will be a penalty shootout right away.

[Cacingkemi]

Many people do not see this competition as very strong. Still, there are still some strong players around.
I am always confused if those ex world players like Iniesta are going to Japan to improve financially or was that now China?

[tyKiwanuka]

Jiangsu - Tianjin Teda -> Tianjin +0.25 @1.90

1-1 FT, half won, better than half half lost A bit annoying, since the equalizer from Jiangsu was an own goal, but well. To my surprise there is actually a second leg for this one, so I had some wrong information here; chinese sports never fails to surprise.

I am always confused if those ex world players like Iniesta are going to Japan to improve financially or was that now China?

Iniesta plays in Kobe/Japan.

99% of players go there to have a last big contract and this is often the biggest contract they ever got in their whole career Money is no problem in China - and as it seems in Japan not as well, since Iniesta is said to earn 30mln p.a. there - and thus even average players for european standards can earn tons of money there. I remember when Sandro Wagner (no top player by no means) went to Tianjin from Bayern Munich and basically tripling or even quadrupling his salary. And he was very honest with it and said it was a financially driven decision.

I guess no player goes there for the challenge, at least not for the football-ish one. But there are maybe some who like the challenge of living in a very different country, getting to know another culture, other people and a completely new lifestyle. And they are getting well paid for this adventure

Here is a little article and overview about what the very top players earn in China. Please notice that this is weekly salary


Source: https://financefootball.com/2020/05/03/top-highest-paid-football-players-in-china-2020/

And on top of that they get VIP treatment as well. Like cars, houses/flats.....

[iTradeChips]

I checked on that yesterday and saw that there are actually many foreigners already that participated in the Super League. I just wonder what their careers were before going it big time in China. Did some of them actually played in the European leagues? If so, would their experiences in Europe have made their decision to join China. Or is it the other way around, Europe doesn't have the place for them so they went to China and played there? It is no secret that China wants to win the World Cup so the foreigners are there for a reason, and that is to inspire millions to play football and eventually 100,000 of them will be pros in 10 years.

[tyKiwanuka]

95% of the players earning their money in SuperLeague now had some kind of a career at a bigger european club. Once you are done in Europe and have a good name, you will get an offer from a chinese club and play there as some kind of an advertisement for this league and to raise domestic interest in it. 

The chinese national team is still poor, they even often struggle against smaller asian countries (not talking about Japan or South Korea). Football just has no roots there, so you have to push it artificially, which only works to a certain extent (see USA as well). The foreign players are good and bad for the chinese players. They do learn from them, but they also often rely on them to do the work, so it's hard for them to develop properly. And in the end the CSL is still too weak to produce good chinese players, who can make international noise and then also help their national team.
Do you know any chinese player in Europe who is successful there ? I only know Wu Lei who plays for Espanyol in LaLiga2 and LaLiga before. He is doing ok there, but nothing more.

The chinese Football Association is trying a lot to form younger players, like teams having to use a fixed number of U23 players, but it's just not working. I think these players need to go to lower leagues in Europe and get developed there. The problem is, that this is a huge step for a young athlete with no guarantee of success. And you don't earn as much money there as in China.....

Big problem in China is, that everything is only measured in success/numbers. And this success has to come as fast as possible, thus giving it no time to grow organically. They just try to grow by injecting loads of money into the system without a real plan to build a strong foundation - this is fortunately not working (yet).

[lxiaoh]

In retrospect, it's been a few years since I was crazy about watched  the Chinese Super League，remembering the most fantastic was Evergrande in 2013，that year Evergrande was virtually invincible in Asia，and the Champions of the Chinese Super League was as easy as winking.

[iTradeChips]

95% of the players earning their money in SuperLeague now had some kind of a career at a bigger european club. Once you are done in Europe and have a good name, you will get an offer from a chinese club and play there as some kind of an advertisement for this league and to raise domestic interest in it. 

The chinese national team is still poor, they even often struggle against smaller asian countries (not talking about Japan or South Korea). Football just has no roots there, so you have to push it artificially, which only works to a certain extent (see USA as well). The foreign players are good and bad for the chinese players. They do learn from them, but they also often rely on them to do the work, so it's hard for them to develop properly. And in the end the CSL is still too weak to produce good chinese players, who can make international noise and then also help their national team.
Do you know any chinese player in Europe who is successful there ? I only know Wu Lei who plays for Espanyol in LaLiga2 and LaLiga before. He is doing ok there, but nothing more.

The chinese Football Association is trying a lot to form younger players, like teams having to use a fixed number of U23 players, but it's just not working. I think these players need to go to lower leagues in Europe and get developed there. The problem is, that this is a huge step for a young athlete with no guarantee of success. And you don't earn as much money there as in China.....

Big problem in China is, that everything is only measured in success/numbers. And this success has to come as fast as possible, thus giving it no time to grow organically. They just try to grow by injecting loads of money into the system without a real plan to build a strong foundation - this is fortunately not working (yet).

That is right that China has been trying hard to artificially insert football at the heart of Chinese sports. They have been trying to start interest in football to many young people and so far there has not been any good result. The part of their plan is to create 100,000 football professionals that can play the big leagues and eventually be able to give China it's first World cup win. China as far as I am concerned, seems to want to dominate on all sports.

[tyKiwanuka]

They are less interested in physical sports such as football, cricket, or basketball.

Hehe, no, they are as much interested in physical sports like any other country. It's just that they are mainly interested in other sports, which do not get that recognition in the western world, like for example Table Tennis and Badminton - these sports are huge there. And these worldwide big sports like Football and Basketball gather more interest, due to the CCP putting more emphasis on making these sports big in China via their domestic leagues. With a population of ~1.4 billion you probably have more Football and Basketball fans there than in a lot of other countries just by the absolute numbers. This is a big country, with lots of money floating around and to be made, but it takes time. Time the CCP normally doesn't have or doesn't take


And please guys don't do a full quote unless it's absolutely necessary, thanks

[tyKiwanuka]

New season has started, so some good odds to be found again (hopefully ).

Tianjin - Shanghai SIPG -> SIPG -2.25 @1.8x 8/10

Tianjin basically lost all their all players, they have always been in financial trouble and the global crisis didn't help with that matter. They have a super weak squad, only two very mediocre import players and are more or less a lock to relegate this season. SIPG as usual has a strong squad with those very good import players for Super League standards (Oscar, Arnautovic etc.). This should be an easy win for SIPG and -2.25 looks easily beatable. H2H from the last matches also looks good:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/dYbZ6Vus/#h2h/overall

[Trofo]

Tianjin - Shanghai SIPG -> SIPG -2.25 @1.8x 8/10

Sounds like value for me, great to have you back for this season as well. I will not be watching Chinese league nowhere near as last season but I will gladly take a value tip here and there. Last season was great to fill my time in the morning while I was working from home but now I am back to working from workplace so no time for exotic leagues. I think I watched more than half of all games from China and Australia during that time. Never thought I will know that much about their football.

[Joca97]

This league is the best for betting on.If i earned big it is on this league

So easy to predict goals.I think all games in this round were over 1.5 goals and only 3 matches were just 2 goals
all other games were over 2.5 goals
and the avg odd for over 2.5 goals is 1.75 so this is an amazing odd .Most people dont bet on this over 2.5 goals but this league is perfect for this and to make quick money