Football Strategies to apply on a betting exchange

[pleasureteam]

Hey guys.

Some time ago I started to get more involved in placing my sports wagers on a betting exchange. With my background as a trader I am feeling much more comfortable by using a betting exchange.

Firstly because the odds are entirely determined by punters and not by a sports book. Compared to a sports book where you play against the house (bookmaker) on a betting exchange you play p2p. So punters take over the bookmakers position by getting the opportunity to lay bets (bet against outcomes).

Secondly and most important a betting exchange gives me the opportunity to trade on sports markets instead of betting on sports which is a huge difference. By using different trading strategies on a betting exchange I do not rely on wether the bet I placed is going to be correct or not.
I only need several things to happen for every different strategy.

There are many different strategies that I apply and I will use this topic to regularly explain some of the strategies I use. In this way people can learn this strategies as well and maybe can also start building on their sport trading adventure.


'Lay the draw' Strategy


My favourite trading strategy on the betting exchange is 'lay the draw' strategy. In this strategy you place a lay bet on the draw which means you think the match will not end in a draw. However I do not really care about wether the match ends in a draw or not. The only thing I need is a second half goal to secure a profit no matter what the outcome of the match is even if the match does end in a draw.


How do I apply this strategy??

- Prematch indicators

             - There must be a clear favourite pre match with an odd of no higher than 2.2 preferably 1.3 to 1.7 range.
             - There must already be matched at least 10,000$ on that match before kickoff.

- Inplay indicators

             - I search for games that are on a draw half time
             - Those games that are on a draw at half time need to have had 5 to 10 shots on goal with at least 30% shot on target.


As soon as a game matches all this criteria I place a lay the draw bet on that game.



Doesn't matter wether the match ends in a draw or not. How is this possible?

It is very simple. If you have a lay the draw position and as soon there is a goal in second half than the odds for the draw shift significantly and you will already be able to secure profits. As soon as a goal is scored in second half you will profit no matter what the outcome of the game will be.

The reason for this is that a betting exchange hedges your secured profits over every possible outcome to guarantee a profit. This means as soon as you take a cash out the betting exchange spreads your secured profits over every possible outcome in that game.... in this case 1X or 2.



The Beauty about this strategy is that you only rely on a second half goal. So even if the underdog scores you will be able to lock a profit. Below I will show a trade I made at this very moment while posting this topic.


Details:

Deposit on orbitx betting exchange on 25th of July 2020     100€
Trades placed so far 8
Current bankroll  123€
23% profits on my bankroll.

NOTE!!!!!

Football trading is not a fast rich method. It requires dedication to stick to the basic rules. Football trading also can deliver loosing trades.... so you can loose money. So only use money you can afford to loose.




Example of my lay the draw strategy.


Match Japan J1 league   Yokohama FC - Urawa


First half statistics

lots of goal attempts and plenty shots on target.




So after seeing the stats I decided to take a lay the draw position on this game with a 6€ stake which gave me a liability of almost 12€ that I would loose if there is no goal scored.




So if there would be no goal scored and it will remain a draw I would loose 11.88€ and in any other case I would be a able to profit 5.82€




Now we are in the position and the only thing that needs to happen is a goal by either 1 of the team. Because I said we are not 'gambling' that the match is going to end on a draw or not. We are trading the 1x2 market and profit from the market behaviour of other punters.


Whoppa after 7 minutes in second half Urawa scored 0-1





But as I said on this betting exchange we do not lock the actual profits but the exchange automatically hedges your stake over all different outcomes. As you can see. I secured a profit no matter how the match ends. Does the match ends in a draw than I secure 1.32€ profits. Does Urawa wins I secure 1.45€ and if in some way Yokohama manages to win I will receive a 18.66€ profit. And this are pure profits cause I have no more liability on this game and my stake already is back in my bankroll. So basically I am free rolling out this game and will make profits no matter how the game ends.





So this is basically what I am doing. Instead of gambling I am trading the sports markets. You maybe can think that profits are not that huge but I approach my winnings on the long term.

A gambler aims for big multipliers and odds to make money fast but in most cases result in losses.
A sports trader aims to take smaller profits and builds his bankroll and his wealth in a steady way.

And after all in the example above I lock at least 1.32€ pure profits on a current 123€ bankroll which is a little over 1% profits on the entire bankroll and little over 10% profits on the position I had.


You can compare trading on sports a little with trading on crypto. The only major difference is that crypto markets can be manipulated by whales but the sports market behaves according to what happens in the game. For example an odd on a draw will not drastically move up or down if nothing is happening in the game. Compared to BTC. BTC can take a run or a small crash without anything prior happened.




So if you are interested in trading on sports.... just keep an eye on this topic.

• Ask me anything related to sport trading
• Share your own experience
• I will post different strategies I use myself regularly
• I will post prematch and inalai tips if I find games that suit one of my strategies

    

[tyKiwanuka]

Very nice thread

Lay the draw is probably the longest lasting strategy that is still working, if you are selecting your matches carefully. Instead of laying the draw, you can also choose to just play over x,5 at half-time. Laying the draw gives you some options to do more trades with free money in that game afterwards though. I saw me losing all profits and finishing the game with +/-0 only, so the over is better suited to undisciplined people maybe.

Looking forward to your next strategies

[pleasureteam]

Very nice thread

Lay the draw is probably the longest lasting strategy that is still working, if you are selecting your matches carefully. Instead of laying the draw, you can also choose to just play over x,5 at half-time. Laying the draw gives you some options to do more trades with free money in that game afterwards though. I saw me losing all profits and finishing the game with +/-0 only, so the over is better suited to undisciplined people maybe.

Looking forward to your next strategies

Thx for appreciating the thread. Yes you are right and I apply the over x,5 myself on multiple occasions. as I said I have multiple strategies that I will post here over the coming weeks. But its to much to all post at once. I rather build up this thread over a longer period. I do not want to add to much different details at once cause people not familiar with a betting exchange, lay-back and sport trading would get confused

[pleasureteam]

Another successful trade.

match Japan J1 league Kawasaki frontale - Shonan

first half statistics which triggered me to place a lay bet on the draw. Huge home advantage in ball possession and huge amounts of shots on goal.




However the trade was going into the wrong direction when Shonan took the lead with 0-1. This resulted in still a loosing trading because Kawasaki still was huge favourite to at least take it back to a draw.

But Kawasaki went to take the distance and took a 2-1 lead which resulted in the possibility to secure some profits again.


3.26€ profits guaranteed on this match which is almost 20% profits on this trade with a 18€ liability and a 2.5% increase of my bankroll

[tyKiwanuka]

The problem and what I miss here, is what you do when things don't go your way ? Every strategy, as good as it is, needs also an exit strategy, where you just admit defeat and settle/hedge for a loss. All these little profits are nice, but one game without a goal, will wipe out all those profits.
You can consider this trading strategy just as a "punt-pray-hedge" strategy, but then you should use lower stakes (in % of your bankroll). Do you have any strategy for exiting the trades at a certain point ?

[pleasureteam]

The problem and what I miss here, is what you do when things don't go your way ? Every strategy, as good as it is, needs also an exit strategy, where you just admit defeat and settle/hedge for a loss. All these little profits are nice, but one game without a goal, will wipe out all those profits.
You can consider this trading strategy just as a "punt-pray-hedge" strategy, but then you should use lower stakes (in % of your bankroll). Do you have any strategy for exiting the trades at a certain point ?

I will going to be covering that as well in one of my following posts. Of course I do not let the trade ride out until end of match if it doesn't go my way. I mostly take an exit with a loss at a maximum of 30% loss in that trade. So if it takes to long for the goal to come I just close the trade and take the losses.

Regarding to the stakes that I use. I know in the example it is not ideal. I started with a bankroll of 100€ and have liabilities of 12-18€ which is way to much for this bankroll. But I have a good explanation for that. In my main sport trading accounts I mostly use 0.5 up to max 2% of my bankroll in a single trade.

Firstly I do not want to expose my main trading accounts. Cause I personally think no one has to know how much I have in my accounts and what amounts I am using to trade.
And secondly where I am resided I am not permitted to use betfair directly. So I use their partner exchange orbitx through a broker called BetInAsia. But the disadvantage is that orbitx has a minimum stake of 6€ for backing or laying a position. So actually it is to high for this bankroll.... but I am only using this account for explaining strategies, take screenshots of all actions taken, etc.

So if I make some profits on the 100€ account than its fine for me but if I blow it I just reload a little to keep explaining my strategies

[BitcoinTurk]

I would like to briefly explain my own football betting tactics by stating that the sharing of information and experience in the subject and which is conveyed to us is extremely beneficial. As a gambler who usually prefer live sports betting, I bet in two different ways. My first type of bet is to interpret the match I watch and bet according to the estimates of these comments. This is definitely a very useful method, and it often helps to win many bets that I have played this way. The second type of bet I use is my method of making predictions entirely instinctively. Depending on the elapsed time, score and statistics of the game being played, I can easily say that I have achieved an average success rate of around 70%, although this method, which I bet on, does not help me gain so often.

To give additional information about my second method, for example, if at least 1 or 2 goals were scored in the 25th minute of the match played by two good teams, I predict that there will be at least 2 more goals but I do not follow the match. Besides, I prefer to make different bets based on other statistics besides goal bets.

[pleasureteam]

I would like to briefly explain my own football betting tactics by stating that the sharing of information and experience in the subject and which is conveyed to us is extremely beneficial. As a gambler who usually prefer live sports betting, I bet in two different ways. My first type of bet is to interpret the match I watch and bet according to the estimates of these comments. This is definitely a very useful method, and it often helps to win many bets that I have played this way. The second type of bet I use is my method of making predictions entirely instinctively. Depending on the elapsed time, score and statistics of the game being played, I can easily say that I have achieved an average success rate of around 70%, although this method, which I bet on, does not help me gain so often.

To give additional information about my second method, for example, if at least 1 or 2 goals were scored in the 25th minute of the match played by two good teams, I predict that there will be at least 2 more goals but I do not follow the match. Besides, I prefer to make different bets based on other statistics besides goal bets.

Everyone has its own methods and strategies. I used to have lots of ‘betting’ strategies myself. But since I switched to sports trading I use entirely different methods. I used many pregame in inplan strategies. But since the past 6 months I entirely switched to sports trading and to keep myself entertained I ask some fun accumulator bets on The +2.5 goal market and FHG market and I do some pool betting in between. But 99% of my time and mindset go to dedicate to trading the sports markets

[pleasureteam]

another successful trade on the Liverpool game. No matter how the match ends I will lock in a 14€ profit. Just love it. I don't need to keep an eye on the game and just can go on to the next one and try to scoop some profits in the next trade

[pleasureteam]

Secured another guaranteed profit on 1 of the matches I followed. this games statistics didn't really meet my qualifying criteria but their previous games lead to high scoring games. So I decided to lay the draw here as well just because I was pretty sure one of both would score another one.




Want to learn more about trading on sports.... just keep following this thread. I will regularly post more successful strategies that I am applying myself on a daily basis

[pleasureteam]

and another profitable sport trade on football.



The winnings/profits do not look great..... but tell me. Is there any market (crypto/forex/indices,...) where you take 10-15% profits on practically all your trades..... I do not think so. So this is only a 100€ account I started with and after 2 days of trading this account my balance is almost up to 130€



BTW next game on my radar is Swansea-brentfort. Not much action in the first half but enough shots to convince me. And second half already is underway for 15 minutes with a missed penalty + a red card for Brentford. So I seems a good pick for laying the draw to me.

[pleasureteam]

check my previous post about the Swansea-Brentford game. Another profitable trade.

I layed the draw at a 1.81 odd with a 6€ stake. So my liability was only 4.86€ that I could possibly loose. I cashed out and hedged my bet in this way to secure a guaranteed profit of at least 4.21€. So this means I almost hit 100% profit on this trade

[pleasureteam]

not much football today but yet we still were able to secure a guaranteed winner. 17€ guaranteed no matter what the outcome of the game will be at full time.

[bitbollo]

MY suggestion: not use automatic option given by betfair.com.

You can get worst odds (since meanwhile they change and become more profitable).
You can "GREED" your three options with an equal percentage equally distributed.
You can't adapt your betting choice (like more money on Team A and not Team B)
I used GEEK TOYS a sw created ad hoc for betting purpose much much more efficient then classic cash-out option in betfair
[Now I can't use anymore since Italians can't use betfair.com thanks to our "monopole" in betting games ]

[Ucy]

Is the "lay the draw position" a known strategy in the betting world? I hardly hear about it, guess because am not familiar with the words used in the betting world. Sounds like a strategy experienced sport-bettors will win more though.
I wonder what happens if no goal is scored in the first and second half of the game... The bet is lost, right?

[bitbollo]

Is the "lay the draw position" a known strategy in the betting world? I hardly hear about it, guess because am not familiar with the words used in the betting world. Sounds like a strategy experienced sport-bettors will win more though.
I wonder what happens if no goal is scored in the first and second half of the game... The bet is lost, right?

Sure, since a 0-0 means a draw.
Some people made the same bets with fixed results " 0 - 0" but is very risk since you're forced to lay an high odds (@20 it means that wins 2 USD requires 40usd as liability!)

Best option is to play during the match, but sometimes there are strong fluctuations of the value even before a match start...

Personally I use this betting strategy with under/over goals. E.G.  lay under 4.5 goals @1,05 (it's a cheap risk but high rewards )

[tyKiwanuka]

MY suggestion: not use automatic option given by betfair.com.
(...)
I used GEEK TOYS a sw created ad hoc for betting purpose much much more efficient then classic cash-out option in betfair

Hmm, is it ? The cash-out option at Orbit/Betfair is basically the same like with GT, i.e. your profits get spread evenly among all outcomes. It's just not that convenient, because you can't decide with which odds you hedge, which is a little problem in fast moving markets. With Orbit/Betfair your cash-out will not get executed, when the odds for your profit position go up in the meantime - with GT you can just choose slightly higher odds from the beginning and be sure you get matched, albeit giving up some small percentage of your profits.

[Fredomago]

not much football today but yet we still were able to secure a guaranteed winner. 17€ guaranteed no matter what the outcome of the game will be at full time.

This something to watch and to learn, I understand that this kind of betting exchange is not as simple as we seeing it, and thanks OP for providing this as good reference so everyone will not go and be lazy to jumped over without studying and learning the whole process,.
It's a good way to earn if you really pay attention in learning every information and allow yourself assess on how the system will work and favors you.

Congrats on this one OP 17€ guaranteed profits in a single match is really worth the hunt.

[bitbollo]

MY suggestion: not use automatic option given by betfair.com.
(...)
I used GEEK TOYS a sw created ad hoc for betting purpose much much more efficient then classic cash-out option in betfair

Hmm, is it ? The cash-out option at Orbit/Betfair is basically the same like with GT, i.e. your profits get spread evenly among all outcomes. It's just not that convenient, because you can't decide with which odds you hedge, which is a little problem in fast moving markets. With Orbit/Betfair your cash-out will not get executed, when the odds for your profit position go up in the meantime - with GT you can just choose slightly higher odds from the beginning and be sure you get matched, albeit giving up some small percentage of your profits.

GT is much faster then BF option. You can always choose BEFORE a cash-out option come out.
Even this is the same function with GT you can hedge the same winning profits on all of 3 events (and not have as seen in this example more money in draw... Strommen match)
Since you can adapt the odds you can have the same win profit, or you can choose an option to get more in another one.
Be the first to offer an odds it's a clear advantage, sometimes I have win/lost bets just for a matter of seconds

[tyKiwanuka]

Even this is the same function with GT you can hedge the same winning profits on all of 3 events (and not have as seen in this example more money in draw... Strommen match)

I think this is just a matter of the odds rising while doing the cash-out. In Strommen match Orbit/Betfair makes back-bet for like 5.6 for the draw, but it actually gets matched at 6.0 (when the odds rise/drop in your favour, it gets matched; when it's to your disadvantage it fails).

But I agree of course, that GT is way better, faster and gives you more options to plan hedges