I don't see the flop thing you mention happening unless its in this mini-cycle type pattern though. Because the only reason major prolonged bear markets happen is precisely because of the huge bull runs. Just topping out at say $30k wouldn't be that much of a parabolic run so it wouldn't cause like a year long -80%+ bear market like the past two cycles, it'd probably just be more like what we had the second half of 2019.
I could see that. Maybe it would be more comparable to the April 2013 run, which was only followed by a 4-5 month consolidation before bubbling up again.
Some people aren't extrapolating from past cycles and don't think a run to $30K is small, based on market cap and the inflow required to sustain price, and things like that. Personally I disagree, but I guess we need to wait and see.
Like I said before, the key with these fundamentally unpredictable events is to keep your options open and not put all your eggs in one basket. Another way to put it:
Never sell all your bitcoin. No matter how high the price goes, or if you think it
must come down. I used to think like that ("it can't go any higher" or "it has to correct") in 2015-2017 and I have a lot less coins now to show for it. Now I know the power of Bitcoin bull markets.
The Winkle twins though were trying to say it's gonna be different in a positive way because of like infrastructure and institutional investment but I just don't see that playing out in such a way this cycle that the top is like insanely high, ya know. Like to give a super broad prediction, $50k - $150k is a reasonable prediction of the top, whereas I feel like they are saying no the game has changed and bitcoin will shoot far into the 6 digits because this time is different, and therefore the bull run will actually get larger this time rather than smaller, and I just don't see any reason to think that.
You don't have to believe it will be bigger this time. I'm unsure about that myself. Just be open to the
possibility, and plan accordingly. If BTC hits the S-curve and mass adoption scenario, you're going to seriously regret selling at valuations like $50K.
If the HODLers refuse to sell, the price will just keep floating up and up and up. That's really the bottom line and it's why predicting the top is impossible. We can't know at what price supply will finally come in and pop the bubble.