In other words, it seems to me that the different MSTR products do not necessarily stand on their own, and MSTR/Saylor have already largely suggested this as a rationale for the varying products, meaning that STRC can pay the 11.5% dividend (yield) and still be profitable in the whole scheme of things, so long as the overall average for bitcoin's performance ends up being greater than 11.5% over several years (such as over 4 years or more)..
I'm surprised you'd say that, because as I've said many times throughout this thread, the main problem with Saylor's strategy is that he doesn't capture Bitcoin's full potential return on his purchases; since he buys a lot when the price goes up and little or nothing when it goes down, his returns are much lower.
Saylor is just buying all of the time - whenever he has money, and coincidentally more money comes in when the price is going up.
And, maybe he is just overly bullish in his perspective, so he cannot help to continue to buy. He might be broken in some ways.
I’ll say it again: right now, Bitcoin has had a total return of 16% over the last 5 years, which works out to a 3% CAGR.
One of the reasons that I like to measure from the 200-WMA is in order to not get overly selective based on spot prices... Sure, spot prices are real, but the 200-WMA smoothens out the irregularities.
In the past 5 years, the 200-WMA went
from $10,650 to
$59,350. That is 5.5x over 5 years. Pretty damned good. That is a 41% CAGR for the 200-WMA.
Here's what the Excel spreadsheet input looks like for a 41% CAGR on the 200-WMA:
2021 $10,650.00
2022 $15,016.50
2023 $21,173.27
2024 $29,854.30
2025 $42,094.57
2026 $59,353.34
2027 $83,688.21
Has Saylor earned 16% on his Bitcoin purchases? No. He has unrealized losses on his purchases; he has a negative return.
As a company they have gone from mediocre wealth (like half a billion) to many many billions (more than $50 billion) and not too many encumbrances, relatively speaking..
If even you don’t understand or don’t remember that, I’m not surprised that Saylor finds so many unsuspecting people who buy his products.
Sure there is retail and there are also institutions and some products that seem to be meeting a demand that is not being met in the current market that MSTR is fulfilling with its various productss.
And, yeah, I don't claim to understand. That's for sure.
So, Saylor believes that he is being prudent to wait out the long term, even though the short term may well have some downward periods that will just play out over 4-ish years or more.
Rather than being cautious, the truth is that he based his model on a radical hypothesis, and when the numbers disprove it, instead of revising the hypothesis, he just keeps charging ahead. It’s quite reminiscent of PlanB and his S2F model, which, when it started to fail, instead of acknowledging he’d been wrong, he kept reformulating it and kept getting it wrong non-stop. At least PlanB wasn’t playing with billions of other people’s money.
Saylor is still considered to be an innovator in regards to his investment into bitcoin and the various financial products, and sure, he might be off with his theories and he might be a bit too bullish.
I am not going to proclaim that he is being disinqenuine, even though I liked him better in the earlier times, and he seems to be pumping the various financial products in the past year and a half or so, and even seeming to be getting further and further away from the peer to peer attribute of bitcoin that brings power to bitcoin... so I have some things that irritate me about him, too.
Nonetheless, Saylor was still projecting BTC returns to be higher in near future times (such as greater than 50%), but then to gravitate down to 30%-ish annualized and perhaps not go below 30% annualized until 5-10 years or more into the future.. and yeah during these downward price periods, MSTR/Saylor projections seem pie in the sky optimistic.. yet his suggestion would be that all of the products will end up working themselves out over 4 year plus timelines.
Yes, but here’s the thing. Until relatively recently, Saylor had been saying that Bitcoin had been growing at a 50% CAGR over the past five years. Now that it’s been growing at just a 3% CAGR over the past five years, you don’t hear him mention it anymore. The last 5 years of Bitcoin’s 17-year history account for 30% of that time—a very significant period.
I understand the putting a favorable spin angle.. so I wouldn't really dispute you about any of his spinning nature and even avoiding some of the unfavorable facts.
