Top 5 reasons I see $100k in next 2 years

[thecodebear]

Alright this is a little self promotion haha. I wrote an article on Medium so I'm gonna post a link.

But in case you don't want to read the article, here's the list of five big movers I see making Bitcoin go to $100k in the next two years.

1. The 2020 Economic Crisis + Money Printing
2. Institutional investors continue to tip-toe into the market
3. The recent Halving plus just normal market cycle dynamics (meaning we're naturally in the upswing part of the cycle now)
4. Companies switching to BTC as their reserve currency (just saw the first instance of it this month, I would guess more will follow with at least a few percent of their cash reserves)
5. DeFi (raising the whole market but also locking away Bitcoin for use in DeFi)

Basically, inflation + money printing that can go into Bitcoin + desire for hard money + institutional investors and companies getting more comfortable with the idea of bitcoin + halving + DeFi + obviously the ensuing retail frenzy that will result once price starts heading north of ATH = $100k+ peak by end of 2022.


Normal link to Medium article

Friend Link to Medium article in case you can't see it behind the pay wall.


What do you think of these five price drivers?
Do you think there are different main drivers of price this market cycle or you don't think some of these will pan out?

[Oilacris]

What do you think of these five price drivers?
Do you think there are different main drivers of price this market cycle or you don't think some of these will pan out?

Those are presumptions but we cant really totally point out fingers that those thing will surely happen specially in talks of institutional money would flow to crypto which is unlikely to happen -
or there might be a small percentage but going all in would be impossible.

Economic Crisis, Halving, DeFi .. All of those things might correlate on market movement but it wont be a precise thing for someone to make it as a solid reference towards his
investment

100k in 2 years would be still a far-off price.

[jackg]

Defi and the companies using it as reserves imo is mostly speculation at this stage..

I dont think defi has been around long enough to assume it's secure and I don't know how well companies can do at securing assets in bitcoin. A couple of rogue employees could land them with nothing quite quickly.

[thecodebear]

100k in 2 years would be still a far-off price.

Was $20k not a far-off price in 2015 when Bitcoin was in the $200s?
Was $1100 not a far-off price in 2011 when Bitcoin was in the single digits?


Projecting a 10x increase over two years for Bitcoin during a bull run is not a far off price.

[thecodebear]

Defi and the companies using it as reserves imo is mostly speculation at this stage..

I dont think defi has been around long enough to assume it's secure and I don't know how well companies can do at securing assets in bitcoin. A couple of rogue employees could land them with nothing quite quickly.

I dunno about that stuff. I just know DeFi seems to be coming into its own now after gradually gaining popularity the past couple of years.

Most ICOs being nothing more than white papers with no market for the product didn't stop the ICO boom from adding hundreds of billions of dollars to the crypto market cap in 2017. And DeFi seems a lot more legit and long-lasting than ICOs because it is actual financial products being put on blockchain, rather than just financing hype and hoping to get out quick after a big pump.

With already tens of thousands of Bitcoin tied up in DeFi and Bitcoin only just the past few months really becoming a popular collateral for DeFi, and if we say there's only 5-10 million Bitcoin that will touch the market during the run-up of the bull market, it's certainly possible that up to 10% of the available Bitcoin in the market could be tied up in DeFi in the next two years.

And I don't see a problem with companies securing Bitcoin assets. Bitcoin is inherently secure. Bitcoin is only not secure when it needs to be kept online in hot wallets, which is why exchanges have problems. A company putting a few percent of their cash reserves in Bitcoin for the long term would be holding all that off-line with extremely secure access. They won't be giving access to random employees. Or they'll store it in some institutional custody service where they don't have to worry about it at all. Ability of companies to safely store Bitcoin is not a problem.

[jackg]

With already tens of thousands of Bitcoin tied up in DeFi and Bitcoin only just the past few months really becoming a popular collateral for DeFi, and if we say there's only 5-10 million Bitcoin that will touch the market during the run-up of the bull market, it's certainly possible that up to 10% of the available Bitcoin in the market could be tied up in DeFi in the next two years.

Fees are really high with defi and the more funds in it, the more lucrative it bnecomes to hack.
It looks like a lot of currencies are tryihng to roll out defi support so there's likely going to be one produced by someone with no idea what they're doing...

True bitcoin DEFI won't be possible until some sort of cross-chain compatibility occurs or the bitcoin chain is adapted to allow it directly. Also in order to earn interest with defi you have to have people happy to borrow it for that rate (rates have already dropped by half since I put funds in about half a year ago).

And I don't see a problem with companies securing Bitcoin assets. Bitcoin is inherently secure. Bitcoin is only not secure when it needs to be kept online in hot wallets, which is why exchanges have problems. A company putting a few percent of their cash reserves in Bitcoin for the long term would be holding all that off-line with extremely secure access. They won't be giving access to random employees.

Bitcoin isn't like a bank account, you can't just reroute where the funds go if the CEO disapears or something. Giving the CEO and directors acccess to a multisig is a way to go, but every time one leaves - you'll have to generate a new multisig address. You'd also have to put plans in place in case a tragedy hit one of the offices and a large number of workers suffered injuries great enough to make it so shareholders/new management can't access the funds.

Or they'll store it in some institutional custody service where they don't have to worry about it at all. Ability of companies to safely store Bitcoin is not a problem.

Same problem as before but potentially even more of a problem. You can probably expectg terms in that contract to say something along the lines of: "funds held by us may be lent to companies that we consider reputable" like most other places do and then if some funds get lost - what do you do about that? Especially if the company already nullifies its burden.

[exstasie]

Defi and the companies using it as reserves imo is mostly speculation at this stage..

Doesn't matter, as long as that speculation locks away BTC supply. 0.18% of all existing BTC are already locked in DeFi contracts through assets like WBTC. That's 0.18% less BTC that can be dumped on the fiat market (realistically much more than that considering how little circulating BTC actually gets deposited to exchanges). With all the investor interest in DeFi platforms, I expect that proportion to rise significantly over the next year or two.

Just like altcoin bull markets, anything that sucks BTC supply away from the BTCUSD market is bullish for Bitcoin.

[Oasisman]

What do you think of these five price drivers?
Do you think there are different main drivers of price this market cycle or you don't think some of these will pan out?

Economic crisis, printing of more money causing dollars and other top currencies to drop it's value, the 4 year Bitcoin cycle, the Defi hype, and the very bullish predictions. These are just some of the things I've seen as the leading factor that drives Btc to reach new ATH.
However, I won't be too comfortable with the $100k range, though I already have a plan on saving like 50% of my wallet in case Btc are really hitting that range.

100k in 2 years would be still a far-off price.

Was $20k not a far-off price in 2015 when Bitcoin was in the $200s?
Was $1100 not a far-off price in 2011 when Bitcoin was in the single digits?
Projecting a 10x increase over two years for Bitcoin during a bull run is not a far off price.

This statement always made sense and will convince investors to turn their beliefs that Btc might hit the $100k ATH. Though some also believes that the realistic range Btc would get next year is around $30k. Let's just see what happens next.

[GreatArkansas]

1. The 2020 Economic Crisis + Money Printing
2. Institutional investors continue to tip-toe into the market
3. The recent Halving plus just normal market cycle dynamics (meaning we're naturally in the upswing part of the cycle now)
4. Companies switching to BTC as their reserve currency (just saw the first instance of it this month, I would guess more will follow with at least a few percent of their cash reserves)
5. DeFi (raising the whole market but also locking away Bitcoin for use in DeFi)

The 5th one here is only a unique for me now.
We all know that the first one, we really experienced this for past few years but a little less. The DeFi thing is kinda new and I am excited and curious how it can be trigger the Bitcoin price, well, it's still not 100% sure for now.
For me, the most common and have more posibility is the block halvings of Bitcoin, since this is one of the important event on Bitcoin for me.

[Wexnident]

4 and 5 are mostly in the beginning stages right now. They could still stop and pretty much remove their effects on the current market. 3 is a given, heck, even I am pretty hyped up with what the halving would bring on the current uptrend of the market. 2 is still at tight ropes right now, especially since if the economy could suddenly bounce back, which is either unlikely or going to take a long time. as for 1, well, they basically have no other choice and path other than that right now. It'd probably be better for them to just let it happen, but by being prepared for it, at least they can minimize their losses. Still though, even with this, other safe haven assets still exists like gold, which is relatively safer so it's still up to debate whether they'd choose Bitcoin over others.

[peterpanda]

Your points are strong enough but I think it is too far bitcoin to reach $100k in next 2 years. We know that from 2015-2020, bitcoin increased a lot but practically all the things have a system and limitation according to situation and time.

[aioc]

100k in 2 years would be still a far-off price.

Was $20k not a far-off price in 2015 when Bitcoin was in the $200s?
Was $1100 not a far-off price in 2011 when Bitcoin was in the single digits?


Projecting a 10x increase over two years for Bitcoin during a bull run is not a far off price.

But we also need to realize that Bitcoin undergoes a big dip and has a hard time reaching another all time high in the last two years, we can't tell if somewhere along the way if Bitcoin will encounters that will make a big turn around again, I'm not being negative but we have to face the real picture that two years is such a short time for Bitcoin to reach that very high price I'm ok with $40 k.

[glowing10]

Your points are strong enough but I think it is too far bitcoin to reach $100k in next 2 years. We know that from 2015-2020, bitcoin increased a lot but practically all the things have a system and limitation according to situation and time.

Anything that goes up too fast then it tends to fall at higher pace as well. But just like now how bitcoin is gradually rising with testing 12k range zone and falling back and slowly keep rising will help in long run. So 100k in 2 years is till unknow for the matter but only thing is that it should be stable every time it creates a new ATH.

[Yaunfitda]

Defi and the companies using it as reserves imo is mostly speculation at this stage..

Defi is already here, billions are already entering, but I doubt it can sustain it's run.

I dont think defi has been around long enough to assume it's secure and I don't know how well companies can do at securing assets in bitcoin. A couple of rogue employees could land them with nothing quite quickly.

Or just hackers breaking it and then stealing money, and I think we have one case already, wherein there was no audit whatsoever in the code that make investors lost their money. DeFi Meme Coin YAM Succumbs to Fatal ‘Rebase’ Bug, Makes Plans for ‘YAM 2.0’.

[tabas]

The fifth.
We're yet to see how long this Defi trend would last. But I'm with you with the other points that you have mentioned. Leaning forward to see $100k in the near future.

[LogitechMouse]

~

Between the 5 that you mentioned, I think the 3rd is the most obvious reason why your speculation can become true in the next 2 years .

If you will see the history of the past 2 halvings, after it happened it went sideways for a period of time and after that it created a parabolic move towards the upside pushing its price to its new ATH. There is a chance that it can happen in the next 2 years too if history repeats itself but still there is a chance that it will not.

With regards to the DeFi, it is too early to say that DeFi can affect the market in general because it has been implemented few months ago and what we are experiencing right now is just pure hype of it. Like what happened to ICO 3 years ago where projects are becoming a successful ones and bounty hunters are very happy but as the scammers swarm the ICO community, success of projects are going lower and lower. It may happen to DeFi too.

[davis196]

Top 5 reasons why we will NOT see BTC to 100K USD in next 2 years:

1.Governments and central banks trying to destroy Bitcoin.
2.Institutional investors won't touch Bitcoin with a 10-meter stick,If the governments and central banks forbid them to buy BTC.
3.DeFi is related to ETH,not to Bitcoin.
4.Money printing and inflation are pumping the crypto prices because the fiat currency prices go down.This isn't actual cryptocurrency adoption.It's just hedging the risks of fiat prices going down.
5.The 2020 economic crisis might end in 2021.This is just a suggestion.
6.The BTC halving is gone and it doesn't have any impact over the Bitcoin price.

[dothebeats]

Number 1 and number 5 for me  is the huge movers of today. The instability in the world's largest economies kept a lot of investors and traders thinking of the next big thing, and as such it became the reason to number 2. They are now trying to gauge the market and see how deep the rabbit hole goes, and should they find some form of a leverage on any position, they'd take it gladly just so they can make some money while the rest are still figuring out what to do. As for number 5, there's just a ton of hype surrounding DeFi right now and it seems that everyone wants to be a part of it as proved by the volume and total locked amount within the last 7 days. I myself do not understand DeFi and its entirety to be honest but I'm starting to get more curious about it each day.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

We're mostly optimistic here so let me not kill that vibe. Two years meaning 2023 right? If that's the timeframe then i would say it's very possible but first we'll have to cross the trading price of $50k. Achieving that will be a catalyst for further growth. Maybe if bitcoin can achieve the trading price of $50k in or before 2022 then there won't be much doubt of bitcoin trading above $100k in the next year which would be just a 100% increase.

Sometime in March bitcoin was trading around $3.5k+ using that to compare with its current price that's almost 2x rise right. That's just to show the possiblity of something similar happening when we achieve the trading price of $50k.

[Yamifoud]

All of them could be a factor of the market change but I see more for these two have a huge impact on it.

4. Companies switching to BTC as their reserve currency (just saw the first instance of it this month, I would guess more will follow with at least a few percent of their cash reserves)
5. DeFi (raising the whole market but also locking away Bitcoin for use in DeFi)

If we all come into using crypto and increases its demand, it eventually makes the price rise. $100k ain't possible but it really needs more time than we think that it boom within 2 years. Definitely, it will be surprising to see and maybe we can't witness that time to come for a chance that we have passed already before it shows.

Adoption is what we meant for but simply we can't think that it works so easily. We become optimistic with $100k and really worth to wait but I'm not sure if we all have that patience.