Sports betting: how much knowledge is too much

[mindrust]

Tldr;

If you are lazy > play dice because it doesn't require you to do your own research. It is only based on your luck. You just need to find a trusted casino with a low house edge.

If you are a data scientist, bet on sports. 

[1714634679]

1714634679

[Russlenat]

Tldr;

If you are lazy > play dice because it doesn't require you to do your own research. It is only based on your luck. You just need to find a trusted casino with a low house edge.

I can see that there are still gamblers who research on how to win in dice, they even make their own betting script.. that was me when I was new, I'm curious in every betting method until I gave up as I have not proven that there's a working method to win in dice, but only luck, however, we can't be too serious with dice since luck is not consistent and no one can beat the house edge.

If you are a data scientist, bet on sports.  

That's me betting on sports, but I think I'm not a successful scientist though.

[robelneo]

My question is about a related matter. When I've asked in a different thread what is required to become a good bettor, many have mentioned that knowing the games, the teams and things like that is essential. But I'm sure there's a certain limit to this flow of information, and when this limit is reached, it's not useful and is even potentially harmful for making the decision. If a person is betting on a soccer match and reads about every match of every person on every team, plus weather forecast, plus research on home advantage etc., the amount of information can be overwhelming and probably not that important or useful to bet on the outcome a particular match. What do you think: is there a rule that would help not to drown in information but only focus on what is helpful? Or is it 'the more, the better' in your opinion?

It's not a question of more or less it's a question of how passionate you are in your endeavor, do you want to take this because you want to make money or do you want to take this because it's your passion if you are at it for money chances are you are going to question if you are learning or want to add more to what you are taking in if it's your passion it doesn't matter how much are you taking in, in fact even if you already have more you still want more information, because it's your passion, it's what you do best in your life.

[mindrust]

I can see that there are still gamblers who research on how to win in dice, they even make their own betting script.. that was me when I was new, I'm curious in every betting method until I gave up as I have not proven that there's a working method to win in dice, but only luck, however, we can't be too serious with dice since luck is not consistent and no one can beat the house edge.

I also fail to understand why people still do that but then I was doing that too before I understood how it is impossible to win against the house edge in the long run.

I guess it is all a part of their learning process before they hit their "Aha!" moment.

Your biggest chance to win against the house edge is when you wager all your money at once and bet on one game. For example if you have 1000coins and play a x2 game where your chances of winning is let's say %48, you may fool the mathematics for only once (or maybe twice but the more you play... read below) and not get hit by that %2 because your chances of winning is even though not 50%, it is very close to 50%

When you start spending all your coins 1 by 1 and play a thousand games, it is a different story. Then it is more likely that you'll lose 52% of the total games you played which will bankrupt you.

That's how online casinos survive. They limit the player's max bet amount so they don't take big hits and they use house edge so in the long run it is guaranteed wins for the casino.

[adzino]

There is no "limit" or anything knows as "too much" knowledge. Sports better depends little on luck, but more on information you gather. For example, if a weak team plays against a strong team, you are pretty much sure which team is going to win because of that knowledge and this is also how odds are set. Betting on weak team gives you higher payout when they win. The more knowledge you gain about a team, the better the chance of you predicting the winning team!

[Mauser]

Not sure if you count esports into sports but I was doing a lot of betting in CSGO during 2018 and the beginning of 2019. I was reading all the news that I could find, searching forums and on twitch streams for potential news of roaster changes and tried to predict most of the major tournaments. In the end I was not doing bad but I am not sure if it was really worth it. Most of the time the favourites just tended to win and teams with a long track record and good roaster just tended to always do good. In terms of time spend on research and the reward I am not sure it really paid off. With less knowledge I would have probably made similar calls and might even had taken more risks because I didn't know and better. So there might be really the chance of just knowing too much.

[acroman08]

If a person is betting on a soccer match and reads about every match of every person on every team, plus weather forecast, plus research on home advantage etc., the amount of information can be overwhelming and probably not that important or useful to bet on the outcome a particular match.

well, this isn't really about how much knowledge is too much but it about how the person will handle the information he/she has and decide which odd will come out since different person handles can handle different amounts of information without doubting or overthinking their decision. some can handle more and some can handle less.

is there a rule that would help not to drown in information but only focus on what is helpful? Or is it 'the more, the better' in your opinion?

selective information might help. I mean only learn or search what you want to learn and ignore the ones you consider trivial or unhelpful. but to be honest, in my opinion, the more knowledge you have is better.

The more knowledge you have is better, you can use that trivial and unhelpful info to vouch for other information that will help you. Well, not all of the information is helpful but for sure you will use it on other situations. But in the article that I've read, having knowledge of the game is not an advantage for us to win in gambling.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130319124229.htm

This article really fits on the discussion and I hope you guys read it. It says that the sports gamblers are good at making illusions, thinking that they can manipulate the outcome. It's a study that uses sports gamblers and sports fans as participants. Therefore, even if you have knowledge or not, you can't easily predict the outcome and knowledge about the game won't help you to win on sports bettings.

that's understandable since, in the end, the bettor's decision where to put his/bet is still a speculation with no guarantee of it hapenning. I wonder what odds the participants of the study bet on. I tried clicking the story source on the article to but I am getting site can't be reached. anyway, it was a nice article to read.

[GDragon]

The more the better but I think you should still weigh in on everything, its better to have more knowledge cause it will help you in some of the games, but there will also be the time where you should unlearn all the knowledge. What I mean is using your gut feeling for example. Sometimes relying too much on knowledge will make you lose too.

Isn't that a characteristic of gambling? You can gain knowledge about it but you can't really tell what will happen 100%.

So if you see something or feel something that can affect your decision making, then you'll adjust according to the situation. It will be always up to you. In my opinion, some gamblers are good cause they know how to juggle the knowledge they have, they won't feel overloaded cause they already know what knowledge is useful at the very moment and what are not.

[VanityWallets2015]

There is no "limit" or anything knows as "too much" knowledge. Sports better depends little on luck, but more on information you gather. For example, if a weak team plays against a strong team, you are pretty much sure which team is going to win because of that knowledge and this is also how odds are set. Betting on weak team gives you higher payout when they win. The more knowledge you gain about a team, the better the chance of you predicting the winning team!

Yes, it would be very good if we had no limitations regarding knowledge, because in sports betting and other types of gambling it would still require us to use the skills we have. When we don't have knowledge, then how can we hone those skills if we don't have knowledge, so that knowledge and having a lot of information is really necessary. Even though when gambling the luck factor is very necessary, basically we will not know when we will be lucky, because bad luck will always accompany it and that's when our knowledge is needed to be able to make a win.

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

[kryptqnick]

I can see that there are still gamblers who research on how to win in dice, they even make their own betting script.. that was me when I was new, I'm curious in every betting method until I gave up as I have not proven that there's a working method to win in dice, but only luck, however, we can't be too serious with dice since luck is not consistent and no one can beat the house edge.

I also fail to understand why people still do that but then I was doing that too before I understood how it is impossible to win against the house edge in the long run.

I guess it is all a part of their learning process before they hit their "Aha!" moment.

Your biggest chance to win against the house edge is when you wager all your money at once and bet on one game. For example if you have 1000coins and play a x2 game where your chances of winning is let's say %48, you may fool the mathematics for only once (or maybe twice but the more you play... read below) and not get hit by that %2 because your chances of winning is even though not 50%, it is very close to 50%

When you start spending all your coins 1 by 1 and play a thousand games, it is a different story. Then it is more likely that you'll lose 52% of the total games you played which will bankrupt you.

That's how online casinos survive. They limit the player's max bet amount so they don't take big hits and they use house edge so in the long run it is guaranteed wins for the casino.

That's true. And there were some cases with people putting a fortune on a single bet (like, on 'red' on a roulette) and doubling it just like that. But there are many reasons why people don't do that.
1. A big amount means a big risk. If you lose one small bet, it's no big deal, but if you take all the money you intended to ever spend on gambling and lose, you'll be devastated.
2. If it's just one bet, it's not gambling as an activity. You don't spend much time doing it, you don't feel thrilled regularly, and you are not going to be able to try to win what you lost.
3. I'm sure some still think that the more you play, the better you become at it, so putting more effort into the future win sounds fair.
4. Winning once is certainly possible, but that's not what people are usually after. They want to earn money, so it's about regularly winning. And one bet just crosses out this possibility altogether.

[TedMosby]

this is my third day to bet blindly.
using "draw" and "not a draw" strategy for a match which has score 0-0 in the first half.
reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5264695.0

I already got 50% profit from my initial money.
I will try it for a week, if this strategy really works that way, I will try to bet more money.
 

[robelneo]

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

It's almost endless studying of the subject, I did mention that it goes with the passion that is why sports analysis spends hours to just come out with a good analysis not questioning if he has enough, because every small detail must not be left behind because there are many situations that will arise when we are playing or betting on it.

[AicecreaME]

<...>

I think knowing the basic information about what are you betting at is really important factor for winning.

Making an educated bet and just blindly betting has its edges. When you’re making an educated bet, you’re going to be more confident because you’ve researched the background of the game, players, etc. There will be a higher probability of winning when you know who’s side is more capable to win.

While in making blind bet, you’re just making a wild guess with no background knowledge in mind. You’re just relying on your gut feel and intuition to win. Therefore, making it a 50/50. It’s not that bad if you’re just betting a small amount and for entertainment purposes. You wouldn’t bother to spend time knowing the whatnots.

I suggest you continue what suits your preferences and use different techniques to win and to don't have regrets whenever you gamble.

[Russlenat]

That's how online casinos survive. They limit the player's max bet amount so they don't take big hits and they use house edge so in the long run it is guaranteed wins for the casino.

That's completely correct, they know what they are doing and before they operate, they already determine their edge and part of that is limiting the max bet, so with that said, martingale is impossible to work against them.

[swogerino]

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

It's almost endless studying of the subject, I did mention that it goes with the passion that is why sports analysis spends hours to just come out with a good analysis not questioning if he has enough, because every small detail must not be left behind because there are many situations that will arise when we are playing or betting on it.

I think this is true if referees would just do their job competely correct and not impact the games.As long as this is and has always been the case in sport betting this kind of strategy will not work at all.Let’s suppose you have been collecting data all week before the weekend game and you know that the team you are betting against will miss let’s say 4-5 important players and you also know this team is weaker on paper and lower on the standings and you bet sure that they will lose and you will win the bet.Unfortunately for you in that game the referee starts by giving one penalty in the early minutes of the game to the team you bet against and there was no real foul for a penalty but the referee decided that way.This team scored and then they completely defended the result and you lost your bet.

What I mean is you can’t win relying on information and other data.

[thermozz]

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

It's almost endless studying of the subject, I did mention that it goes with the passion that is why sports analysis spends hours to just come out with a good analysis not questioning if he has enough, because every small detail must not be left behind because there are many situations that will arise when we are playing or betting on it.

I think this is true if referees would just do their job competely correct and not impact the games.As long as this is and has always been the case in sport betting this kind of strategy will not work at all.Let’s suppose you have been collecting data all week before the weekend game and you know that the team you are betting against will miss let’s say 4-5 important players and you also know this team is weaker on paper and lower on the standings and you bet sure that they will lose and you will win the bet.Unfortunately for you in that game the referee starts by giving one penalty in the early minutes of the game to the team you bet against and there was no real foul for a penalty but the referee decided that way.This team scored and then they completely defended the result and you lost your bet.

What I mean is you can’t win relying on information and other data.

Bullshit and nonsense - of course you can win. You give an abstract example. There are always risk factors in life and something can always happen. It is like telling you that you will not get up tomorrow. And what about your plans then..?

[swogerino]

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

It's almost endless studying of the subject, I did mention that it goes with the passion that is why sports analysis spends hours to just come out with a good analysis not questioning if he has enough, because every small detail must not be left behind because there are many situations that will arise when we are playing or betting on it.

I think this is true if referees would just do their job competely correct and not impact the games.As long as this is and has always been the case in sport betting this kind of strategy will not work at all.Let’s suppose you have been collecting data all week before the weekend game and you know that the team you are betting against will miss let’s say 4-5 important players and you also know this team is weaker on paper and lower on the standings and you bet sure that they will lose and you will win the bet.Unfortunately for you in that game the referee starts by giving one penalty in the early minutes of the game to the team you bet against and there was no real foul for a penalty but the referee decided that way.This team scored and then they completely defended the result and you lost your bet.

What I mean is you can’t win relying on information and other data.

Bullshit and nonsense - of course you can win. You give an abstract example. There are always risk factors in life and something can always happen. It is like telling you that you will not get up tomorrow. And what about your plans then..?

I give a pretty solid example which should make people understand it is very difficult to win even if you have done your homework in gambling.

As for doing our homework for our plans usually works out because we are in full control different from the example I gave above.

[Ucy]

this is my third day to bet blindly.
using "draw" and "not a draw" strategy for a match which has score 0-0 in the first half.
reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5264695.0

I already got 50% profit from my initial money.
I will try it for a week, if this strategy really works that way, I will try to bet more money.
 

Blind betting? That strategy in the link you posted doesn't really sound "blind" to me. Afterall strategy/strategies are involved.
Well, I guess you'll have to keep betting for awhile (with little amount ofcourse, or with what you can afford to lose) in order to see how profitable you will be overall.
I may try the betting strategy too if it's really profitable and works. Bookmarked & observing!

[Saisher]

It depends on how serious you are if you are a full time sports betting bettor, then there is no such things as to much you will always want more, if you are betting occasionally you will just check and compare your analysis to others and go with your hunch, it comes with passion and how much time you can allocate, but there's no such thing as enough.

[gabbie2010]

There is no "limit" or anything knows as "too much" knowledge. Sports better depends little on luck, but more on information you gather. For example, if a weak team plays against a strong team, you are pretty much sure which team is going to win because of that knowledge and this is also how odds are set. Betting on weak team gives you higher payout when they win. The more knowledge you gain about a team, the better the chance of you predicting the winning team!

Yes, it would be very good if we had no limitations regarding knowledge, because in sports betting and other types of gambling it would still require us to use the skills we have. When we don't have knowledge, then how can we hone those skills if we don't have knowledge, so that knowledge and having a lot of information is really necessary. Even though when gambling the luck factor is very necessary, basically we will not know when we will be lucky, because bad luck will always accompany it and that's when our knowledge is needed to be able to make a win.

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

Using soccer as an example you must have the knowledge about the teams involved and must have been a follower of a particular league and knowing the strong teams and the weaker ones example in EPL Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Man utd and Arsenal are strong team placing bet against any of those team losing a match to a weak team amount to losing that bet, there are other leagues out too there, these are  some of the skills needed to be acquired in other to avoid betting blindly and losing bets