Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome

[tyKiwanuka]

Unfortunately I didn't catch any odds after the red cards, but it wasn't too interesting in terms of red cards this weekend anyway.

England

Everyone behaved well, no red cards.

Spain

No red cards.

Italy

Roma - Juve
Red Card: Juve in 62nd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 2-2

This would have been a very profitable spot to go on the red-carded team. Too bad I didn't follow the odds, but I would think Roma was between 1.30-1.40 after the red card.


Bologna - Parma
Red Card: Parma in 76th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 4-1

No impact on the outcome, Bologna with the 4-1 in the last minutes.

Germany

Mainz - Stuttgart
Red Card: Mainz in 77th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-4

Stuttgart was able to extend their lead shortly after the red card and made another one some minutes later. Bad spot here, but Mainz was playing against their coach (and they succeeded, because he was sacked in the meantime ) Stuttgart had a red card in injury time as well, just for the record.


Schalke - Bremen
Red Card: Schalke in 84th minute, score 0-3
Final Score: 1-3

Red card came late, when the game was already decided, but Schalke actually managed to score a goal one man down in injury time.


Recapitulating things so far, it looks like there probably is some value on "next goal" for red-carded team or lay "next goal" for opponent (to cover no goals in remaining time). This would have worked twice this weekend with I guess very good odds and also 2/3 last weekend. But we need more data

Fun Fact: All games with a red card ended over 3.5 goals.

[BTCGOLD]

Usually in friendly matches there are not so many red cards since the result is not important and people are not taking to much risks.

[Rengga Jati]

I always hate when someone from the club that I like got a red card for an unnecessary offense. However, if its offense is meant to maintain something or because of a certain problems like what Ziane did, I don't if it will be wors again. And for the team, I personally agree that a red card for one of their team will result in the game exactly. They must have a decreasing spirit and also of course they must work hard to maintain and survive.

Actually, I ever know about it that red cards may give an impact on the need to pay some fees for that red card. Is it true? probably every match or event will depend on the rules, including the red card acceptance and it is a must.

[aesma]

Do you mean Zidane during the 2006 World Cup final ? Do you know that Materazzi said he'd like to fuch his sister, and is boasting about it to this day ? Really disgraceful. He got to be world champion, he could have apologized, instead remaining a prick for the history books.

[ampere]

In a very easy nutshell, i can categorically confirm that Red Card in football leaves the football team with a player down compared to the other team; it leaves such team at a very disadvantage compared to the other team. Often time in football, we have seen clubs lose terribly after losing a player to the red card; and we have also seen great sides win a football match with 1 man down. It all depends on the psychological state of the team, as well as the tactical prowess of the coach to drive a performance out of the team

[tyKiwanuka]

Pretty uneventful weekend for red card fetishists (are there these kind of people ?).

England

ManU - Tottenham
Red Card: ManU in 28th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-6

ManU completely collapsed after that red card and conceded 4 more. This would have been a bad spot.

Spain

Valladolid - Eibar
Red Card: Eibar in 73rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-2

Eibar managed to get all 3 points with a late goal one man down. This is rather unusual in an away game also considering Eibar was >4.00 pre-match. Didn't watch the game, but maybe Valladolid pushed for the 2-1 and ran into a counter-attack.


Alaves - Bilbao
Red Card: Alaves in 86th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-0

Red card came late, so had no impact no more.

Italy

Lazio - Inter
Red card: Lazio in 70th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

Laying next goal Inter would have worked here, which is maybe really something one should look into as a strategy with small money to test the results (not just on paper).

Germany

No red cards this round.

[NotATether]

Fun Fact: All games with a red card ended over 3.5 goals.

I am surprised by this statistic as it seems to contradict that the fouling team will shift to a permanent defensive strategy after a red card. It looks like they'll try to snag one more goal if they can, then shift to a defensive strategy after which the other team is supposed to have a much harder time getting past them and shooting goals.

Also, defenders getting a red card has less impact on their teams if their formation is already defensive-oriented, like 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. If you only had three defenders and one of them goes down then they're in much bigger trouble because the other team gets what's pretty much an open lane, especially if you make a midfielder play defense instead of subbing in a real defender.

Interestingly Man United's attacker got the red card against Spurs, so they shouldn't have finished so badly. What happened? Did the whole team lose their morale and started to play badly?

[tyKiwanuka]

Fun Fact: All games with a red card ended over 3.5 goals.

I am surprised by this statistic (...)

This was just an outlier and is no pattern

Also, defenders getting a red card has less impact on their teams if their formation is already defensive-oriented, like 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. If you only had three defenders and one of them goes down then they're in much bigger trouble because the other team gets what's pretty much an open lane, especially if you make a midfielder play defense instead of subbing in a real defender.

Interestingly Man United's attacker got the red card against Spurs, so they shouldn't have finished so badly. What happened? Did the whole team lose their morale and started to play badly?

If I were a coach and my team gets a red card in first half being one score down (0-1/1-2/2-3), my ultimate goal would be to defend this score as long as possible to keep me in the game. Then in the maybe last 10 minutes, I would get more offensive again and try to score the equalizer.
I guess this is what ManU tried to do as well, because they didn't make any substitution after the red card. It didn't work out and they were down 1-4 already with half-time and then just decided to limit the damage, which didn't work out as well then

As I said in the opening post, I don't think a red card is that bad, i.e. the end of the world. You have some tactical tools and should also react properly on a mental level. We have seen in this thread that not all hope is lost when you are one man down (Eibar this weekend or Juve the weekend before). It is a disadvantage, but not as big as generally assumed imo.

[tyKiwanuka]

This weekend saw some more to cheer on, if you are a fan of hard tackles and unsportsmanlike conducts

England

Everton - Liverpool
Red Card: Everon in 90th minute, score 2-2
Final score: 2-2

Red card came late, so no impact.


Crystal Palace - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 93rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Same here.

Spain

Granada - Sevilla
Red Card: Sevilla in 45th minute (injury time of first half), score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Granada took advantage and scored the winning goal in 82nd minute. Some lay of Granada and frequent hedging would have worked, but this is very difficult to get right.


Eibar - Osasuna
Red Card: Osasuna in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Again a late red card with too few time left to have any impact.


Villareal - Valencia
Red Card: Villareal in 92nd minute, score 2-1
Final score: 2-1

And another one....

Italy

Crotone - Juventus
Red card: Juventus in 60th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

As one could expect, Juve was able to defend the score, but weren't able to score themselves again, also being without CR7. This is normally a spot, where most punters would feel good going on the red-carded team: Huge favourite and a not too early red card. Laying next goal Crotone would have been costly I guess, but would have won, so I am making this green.

Germany

Bielefeld - Bayern
Red Card: Bayern in 76th minute, score 1-4
Final score: 1-4

Game was already decided when the red card came and these games are probably pretty uninteresting to bet on then. Even with 8 players Bayern is still better than Bielefeld


There were some more red cards this weekend, but only 1 goal was scored after it. In general there are rather few red cards or they often come very late, so hard to get some bigger sample size. I should maybe add FRA1, there have been loads of red cards this season, 32 already this season

[aesma]

Sometimes I wonder why players (especially defenders) even take the risk of a card (of any color) once the match is already decided, all the more so when the other team is clearly inferior. I guess it introduces a bit of drama for spectators and gamblers alike !

[tyKiwanuka]

Another boring weekend with basically no new insights

England

Southampton - Everton
Red Card: Everton in 72nd minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

I watched that game and Southampton was happy with just defending the score and Everton was pathetic the whole game anyway.


Fulham - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Fulham in 88th minute, score 0-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card and normally nothing happens then anymore with the game decided, but Fulham actually scored a goal one man down in 95th minute.

Spain

Valladolid - Alaves
Red Card: Valladolid in 21st minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Alaves took advantage nicely of the early red card. Such an early red card is really brutal for any team. I actually took a screenshot of the next goal market at halftime:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/

So around 1.75 for Alaves to not score the next goal.


Atletico Madrid - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 74th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 2-0

This is a typical example of what you can expect; Betis pushed for the equalizer and ran into a counter-attack.

Italy

Cagliari - Crotone
Red card: Crotone in 48th minute, score 3-2
Final score: 4-2

Similar to Atletico game. Didn't watch it, but Crotone was probably looking to defend the 2-3 for the time being to stay in the game as long as possible and start pushing only in the last ~10 minutes. Cagliari scored the deciding 4-2 in 84th minute then. Laying next goal Cagliari would have resulted in some trading profit, but I wouldn't want to make this one green.

Germany

Leipzig - Hertha Berlin
Red Card: Hertha in 50th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 2-1

Hertha was really doing good as huge underdog until the red card came and even then Leipzig had their problems and it needed a penalty to get the win for them. Playing nearly a full half one man down is never easy in an away game and Leipzig is a good team with lots of quality players. Expected result after that red card.


The red-carded teams were doing poor this round and each of them were losing their games in the end. Goals for after red card: 1, goals against: 5, no score change after red card only in one game.

[NotATether]

You can include the red cards from UEFA Champions League games to see how red cards bring down bigger teams playing against each other.

Up to now, there was only one red card obtained in this season's UEFA match, it was in Barcelona vs Ferencvaros on matchday 1. Barca got the red card at the 68 minute mark but by then the match was already 3-0, Ferencvaros couldn't score any goals even with a crippled Barca team, except for the penalty they got at 70 minutes. (many, many yellow cards for Ferencvaros though  )

Barcelona actually scored two more goals after the red card. Crazy right? But that's understandable because it was a defender who was taken out of the game, their attack was untouched.

[tyKiwanuka]

Barcelona actually scored two more goals after the red card. Crazy right? But that's understandable because it was a defender who was taken out of the game, their attack was untouched.

Well. the difference between Barca and Ferencvaros is so huge, you will find something similar only in domestic cup games Barca could also beat them playing with only 9 players for 90min I guess.

I have no idea what this thread will lead to; if I will be able to find any pattern or angle to extract some profits out of the games with red cards. Every game and every league is unique and I chose the four biggest leagues to start this journey and monitor things to get a better feel. These teams in these leagues are quite competitive (well, Schalke ) and well known, so you a) get a good picture in general and b) it's easier for other users to follow.

But the sample size is still so tiny, that for the moment I am still just collecting data and not make any assumptions. Laying next goal for the not-red-carded team could be valuable I think, but you would have to take profits on the run, i.e. hedge inplay. It can take some time in the game until the advantage of having one player more finally works out, but super hard to get it right with hedging. So lay next goal, hedge a bit after 10min, a bit more after 10min etc. could work. Doing something in the 1X2 market doesn't look too promising from what I saw until now, some side markets are a better approach maybe.

And once there is some confidence and pattern in these 4 leagues, I might look for CL, EL, lower leagues etc. But thats a long way to go

[tyKiwanuka]

Busy times for the refs this week and a lot of players will have some rest next weekend.

England

Wolverhampton - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Crystal Palace in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Too late to have any impact.

Spain

Loads of red cards in Spain this round

Alaves - Barca
Red Card: Alaves in 62nd minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Equalizer for Barca came instantly after the red card. Would have been interesting to see the odds after 1-1 and then maybe laying Barca next goal. Did anyone watch the markets and saw the odds ?


Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 93rd minute, score 1-4
Final Score: 1-4

Late red card, no impact and game was decided already.


Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.


Valencia - Getafe
Red Card(s): Valencia in 56th minute, score 1-0 and Getafe in 98th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Now this is an interesting one Getafe took advantage and scored two to turn the game around, though only in 87th and 94th minute. They then got a red card themselves and Valencia scored the 2-2 via penalty in 100th minute, lol. Not sure if this penalty was caused by the red card, but such games are a traders dream. Though not very interesting for this "study", since this game was so unique and you won't find anything like that again in the next 500 games.

Italy

Roma - Fiorentina
Red Card: Fiorentina in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Nothing to report here.


Verona - Benevento
Red Card: Benevento in 73rd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 3-1

This is a scenario we had quite often already. The favourite and/or home team takes advantage of the strength in numbers and scores another goal, while the red-carded team pushes being one goal down.

Germany

Hoffenheim - Union Berlin
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 58th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-3

The only green one for this weekend. The red card resulted in a penalty for Union and laying them to score the next goal would have resulted in a profit (as would have laying them to win and then hedge), since Hoffenheim scored the equalizer in 80th minute. Union went on to win the game with two late goals, but we would have been out of the markets by then already


Another bad week for our red-carded teams. I more and more think, that it's really not worth to do any bets in favour of the red-carded teams. But otoh I also think it's not worth to back the other team, since the odds are often poor-ish. Maybe the markets in these games are already kind of perfect and there is no value to be found

[Xxmodded]

Barcelona actually scored two more goals after the red card. Crazy right? But that's understandable because it was a defender who was taken out of the game, their attack was untouched.

Well. the difference between Barca and Ferencvaros is so huge, you will find something similar only in domestic cup games Barca could also beat them playing with only 9 players for 90min I guess.

I have no idea what this thread will lead to; if I will be able to find any pattern or angle to extract some profits out of the games with red cards. Every game and every league is unique and I chose the four biggest leagues to start this journey and monitor things to get a better feel. These teams in these leagues are quite competitive (well, Schalke ) and well known, so you a) get a good picture in general and b) it's easier for other users to follow.

But the sample size is still so tiny, that for the moment I am still just collecting data and not make any assumptions. Laying next goal for the not-red-carded team could be valuable I think, but you would have to take profits on the run, i.e. hedge inplay. It can take some time in the game until the advantage of having one player more finally works out, but super hard to get it right with hedging. So lay next goal, hedge a bit after 10min, a bit more after 10min etc. could work. Doing something in the 1X2 market doesn't look too promising from what I saw until now, some side markets are a better approach maybe.

And once there is some confidence and pattern in these 4 leagues, I might look for CL, EL, lower leagues etc. But thats a long way to go

Yesterday's match when Barca was held by Alaves draw even though the opposing player got a red card in the 60th minute, for some reason Barca's game did not improve even though playing with the team that was hit by the red card, in the remaining 40 minutes of the match Barcelona was only able to score one goal through Griezman's shot. Lately, there have been many bad results obtained by Barcelona after losing to Real Madrid in the El Clasico match. Not to mention that there is a bankruptcy issue that befell Barcelona if there is no reduction in player salaries, it is predicted that in 2021 Barca will go bankrupt.

[tyKiwanuka]

Pretty uneventful weekend overall.

England

Everyone behaved well over the weekend, no red cards.

Spain

Barcelona - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 60th minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 5-2

The red card resulted in a penalty to make it 3-1 and Betis actually was the next to score then. Lay Barca next goal would have worked, though you must be very brave to actually place such a bet in such a game. But there are these people, so I'll make this green^^


Real Sociedad - Granada
Red Card: Real Sociedad in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Red card came late, when game was decided, so uninteresting.


Levante - Alaves
Red Card: Alaves in 34th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-1

One should maybe bet on red card in games with Alaves - in 4 of their last 5 games there was one^^ Levante scored the equalizer in second half, but nothing more then. Another example where a red card in first half is too much of a disadvantage. So lesson #1 learned from this thread: Always bet against a team, that gets a red card in first half.

Italy

Cagliari - Sampdoria
Red Card: Sampdoria in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 2-0

Cagliari nicely took advantage, see the lesson from above


Torino - Crotona
Red Card: Crotone in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card again and it's not hard to defend a 0-0 for some minutes even with one man down.

Germany

No red cards this round.


International break now and we will be back in 2 weeks and see, if there are some more lessons to be learned.

[NotATether]

Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.

Teams can also substitute players to take advantage of the other team getting a red card. Such as a defender getting a red card, then the other team might put in a midfielder or winger to further frustrate them. But a trend I noticed in the matches you listed, is that the red carded team is the one substituting like crazy instead. See for example Cagliari - Sampdoria and Alaves - Barcelona. This can’t be applied to Premier League games because those don’t have as many substitutions per game as other leagues.

[tyKiwanuka]

Good weekend for the red-carded teams. The lay next goal strategy would have worked very well. There were no red cards in first half, so we couldn't underline the lesson we learned two weeks ago.

England

Aston Villa - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 91st minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card, no impact.


Leeds - Arsenal
Red Card: Arsenal in 51st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Arsenal did very well with one man down and should maybe even be a bit disappointed with not getting all 3 points - the chances were there. But they were at least not conceding, which would have resulted in a profit in this one.

Spain

Eibar - Getafe
Red Card: Eibar in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Udinese - Genoa
Red Card: Genoa in 97th minute, score 1-0
Final Score 1-0

Late red card, no impact.


Napoli - Milan
Red Card: Napoli in 65th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-3

Napoli defended the 1-2 quite successful until 95th minute, when Milan scored the 1-3 in the end, which is kind of expected then (if Napoli isn't able to make it 2-2^^). Laying next goal Milan would have been a good bet, but this doesn't go green neither red.

Germany

Mönchengladbach - Augsburg
Red Card: Augsburg in 66th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Augsburg was able to score the equalizer as huge pre-match underdog and being one man down. The goal itself was a bit lucky, but doesn't matter, this would have been a super valuable spot.

[tyKiwanuka]

Another rather boring weekend in terms of red cards. With this small sample size I did actually get a better feel by now and was able to take advantange of my observations in a game not mentioned here. I wanted to lay Elche to win at HT as well, but then got distracted and by the time I got back to the game, Cadiz already had scored the equalizer. Too bad.

These second half red cards are still hard to figure out properly (laying next goal does work imo, but it's risky and you would have to hedge); the red cards in first half are "easy", only problem is, that they don't come by very often

England

No red cards this round.

Spain

Elche - Cadiz
Red Card: Elche in 45+4th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is one game from the lesson we learned ealier this thread and it would have worked out again. Elche were around 2.00 to win at halftime and as expected they weren't able to hold on to that lead and Cadiz scored the equalizer in second half.


Celta Vigo - Granada
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 98th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 3-1

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Benevento - Juventus
Red Card: Juventus in 97th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Late red card, no impact.

Germany

Wolfsburg - Bremen
Red Card: Bremen in 80th minute, score 4-3
Final Score: 5-3

Kind of expected for Wolfsburg to score another goal, when Bremen was pushing to score the 4-4, but it took until 95th minute. So this is not a red one to me.


Mainz - Hoffenheim
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 80th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

10+ minutes are really short to have any impact, because a red card at this late stage doesn't change a lot. The red-carded team will just park the bus for some minutes with 10 players and it's not easy for any team to score then. This could be green.

[Ucy]

Red card will definitely have impact on a match if either team works harder, re-strategize, doesn't work harder or doesn't re-strategize

The team down by one player would usually go on defensive, depending on the position of the red carded player though.
With my little understanding of football/soccer, I would use more players that can defend & attack if my better/best striker is red-carded. Or I'll strengthen my defense with more defenders if my better/best defender is red carded.