Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome

[tyKiwanuka]

Quite some interesting red cards this weekend, to shed more light into this enigma.

England

West Brom - Crystal Palace
Red Card: West Brom in 34th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-5

First half red card = back the team one man up to win/equalize. It worked again, Crystal Palace totally dominated the second half, scoring 4 unanswered.

Spain

Levante - Getafe
Red Card: Getafe in 7th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

This one was in first half as well, but Levante was already leading, taking nicely advantage as the game went on and securing an easy win. Getafe got another red card in 77th minute, when it was 3-0. Pretty unusual setup all in all, so something to forget fast.


Alaves - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Alaves in 60th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Second half red card = lay next goal for the team one man up. Worked here as well, Alaves were able to defend the result until the final whistle.

Italy

Roma - Sassuolo
Red Card: Roma in 41st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

This time this strategy (Sassuolo win) wouldn't have worked, but it can't work every time, we are just looking for value.


Crotone - Napoli
Red Card: Crotone in 50th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-4

Lay next goal strategy would have failed here as well. There is of course a huge difference in quality between these teams and Napoli is a good counter-attack team, but difficult to spot/decide when to better not use this strategy^^

Germany

Hertha - Union
Red Card: Union in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 3-1

First half red card strategy striked again and I actually took advantage of my observations in this game, netting me a nice profit.


Going forward I will concentrate on the first half red cards and check that strategy each round. To get a bigger sample size faster, I will add FRA1 and NED1.
The lay next goal strategy I will leave aside, since I don't think there is that much value and it's very hard to get it right, i.e. when to use it and more importantly when not

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[tyKiwanuka]

There were no red cards in first half on the weekend, but in the midweek games we had 3 of them so far and every time the strategy would have worked.

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao
Red Card: Bilbao in 13th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Odds were probably not good for Real after the red card considering they were already 1.6x pre-match fav, but in the end Real won. Bilbao managed to equalize one man down though....not good for your heart

Monaco - Lens
Red Card: Monaco in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

This is probably not super interesting, since Lens was already leading when the red card occured, but would have won easily.

Stade Rennais - Olympique Marseille
Red Card: Marseille in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 2-1

Here I actually got involved and played 1X at halftime, because I thought this is a good spot - the best spot imo; i.e. the first half red-carded away team leading. After the 1-1 in 63rd minute, Marseille was @10+ then and you could easily hedge if you wanted.

[tyKiwanuka]

Some games to catch up

Roma - Torino
Red Card: Torino in 14th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

After this early red card, there could be only one winner. Roma was already huge odds-favourite going into the game, so after the red card, the odds must have been ultra low (didn't check). Nevertheless another "win".


Osasuna - Villareal
Red Card: Osasuna in 19th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-3

I took my chances here, but the odds were pretty poor tbh and I sweated a bit after Osasuna made it 1-2 with 20min to go.




Brighton - Sheffield Utd
Red Card: Sheffield in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is iirc the first time, where it did go wrong. And I lost money, since I got involved for what I thought an ok-ish 1.55 (pre-match they were 1.9x). But Sheffield was able to score the lead in second half then and Brighton was only able to equalize late. You can't win them all and if this doesn't happen all too often, I am still hopeful




West Brom - Aston Villa
Red Card: West Brom in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Didn't check the odds after the red card, but I guess they were around 1.15 maybe. Villa took some time to seal the game (84th and 88th minute), but another win.


This Brighton loss made me doubt things a bit and with Roma, Villareal and Villa being super low after the red cards, this would have been a loss overall.

[tyKiwanuka]

Time for a little update, with all these midweek games and breaks, it's a bit hard to keep up with things

Juventus - Fiorentina
Red Card: Juventus in 18th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Odds must have been quite good for Fiorentina to hold on to the lead - Juventus was ~1.35 pre-match -  and they sealed the win with two more goals later in the game.

Monaco - St. Etienne
Red Card: Monaco in 35th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Hmm, Monaco scored the equalizer right after halftime and then defended this result till the end, not good.

Aston Villa - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Aston Villa in 45th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

And another loss If I would have followed this game, I surely would have placed a bet against Villa, since this is normally a very good spot. Glad I didn't follow, saved some money.


7-3 since I started concentrating on the first half red cards. With odds being generally low-ish, I think this would have resulted in an overall loss so far. But lets keep on observing things.

[tyKiwanuka]

There were not that many red cards since the last update and even fewer that match our criteria. And those that did weren't very "good" for our test.

Benevento - Milan
Red Card: Milan in 33rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-2

Milan held onto the lead and even scored another one shortly after halftime. Benevento had a missed penalty, but this would only have been the 1-2. If they didn't miss, this could have maybe won, but it didn't^^

Osasuna - Alaves
Red Card: Osasuna in 8th (!) minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

Such an early red card and Alaves couldn't take advantage of it. Osasuna even scored the lead, which Alaves could only equalize with a penalty.


So we are now at 7-5 Probably the other way round is more profitable

[tyKiwanuka]

Not a lot of red cards in general (none in FRA1 and NED1 since last post even) and only 4 before halftime.

Sheffield Utd - Newcastle
Red Card: Newcastle in 45th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-0

Sheffield got their first win this season with this red card for Newcastle. It needed a penalty for them to score, but a win is a win. Odds probably weren't great considering the pre-match odds.

Fulham - Chelsea
Red Card: Fulham in 44th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-1

Chelsea were already huge pre-match favourites, so the odds were super low after the red card, but they managed to win. Took them until 78th minute to score the lead though...

Juventus - Sassuolo
Red Card: Sassuolo in 45th+2 minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Another one with very small odds and Sassuolo would have given us a good scare, because they managed to equalize being one man down and Juve only scored the lead again in 82nd minute.

Torino - Spezia
Red Card: Spezia in 8th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Torino were solid pre-match favourites, but failed to take advantage of this very early red card.


Despite going 3-1 you would most likely have gone breakeven only, because of poor odds. On top of that you were in acute danger of mutliple heart attacks with Juve/Chelsea doing so poor even one man up.

I will put this on break for the time being, until I find a new angle to tackle games with red cards.