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Author Topic: Why I don't buy Polkadot now  (Read 943 times)
zasad@ (OP)
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August 29, 2020, 09:14:27 PM
 #1

https://polkadot.network/
Founder  Gavin Wood
https://twitter.com/gavofyork
"Founder of Parity Technologies. Co-Founder of Ethereum. Building Polkadot. Blockchain bloke. All things Web 3.0"

A bit of history about the project.
Project since 2017, this year 50% of coins were sold on ICO.

https://icodrops.com/polkadot/

ICO raised $ 144 million, the average purchase price of a coin 30 cents !

Polkadot ICO lost $91 Million to parity bug.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7bd0tm/polkadot_ico_lost_91_million_to_parity_bug/

The project remains $ 53 million

In 2019, the project launched a network, in 2020 new token sale was carried out, the average token price is $ 1.2-1.5

https://www.coindesk.com/polkadot-raises-43m-in-72-hour-private-sale-source
"A second private sale of the Polkadot token (DOT) netted the Web3 Foundation and Parity Technologies some 3,982.07 bitcoin (BTC) worth an estimated $43.3 million at press time, according to sources."

Announcements of projects
https://forum.web3.foundation/t/teams-building-on-polkadot/67
http://polkaproject.com/

Statistics
https://polkastats.io/

Staked
572.229M DOT (58%)

Cool, what does that mean?

Tokens healed in staking cannot be released immediately, they need to wait 28 days.
Tokens bought on the second token sale are also locked for 4-5 months (correct if I was wrong)

Therefore, nothing prevents the price of a coin from flying to the moon!

How many willing investors do you think will want to sell their tokens for $ 6? (their cost price is 30 cents) Grin

I think a lot, so the most prophetic investors will soon run out of 28 days (this will come on September 7-12) and the price will sharply drop down.

There is a chance that the price will increase if the token is traded on the coinbase exchange, but I think that the price will fall dramatically.

I also planned to buy this coin, but after talking with different people, I changed my mind while investing in it.
I will wait until mid-September.

Your opinion?

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August 30, 2020, 06:33:53 AM
 #2

A project that I know of raised only ~$10M back in 2018 and they're still going strong without any additional token sale and instead expands quite nicely. I honestly can't trust it as an investment when they raised more than $50M and still ask for more, maybe only as a short-term speculation (gambling). I'd agree with you, though I'd think it's still okay to gamble 1/2 ETH and exit near the lock removal.
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August 30, 2020, 07:20:22 AM
 #3

Very good and informative analysis.
I've recently bought some DOT on binance, and in the meantime it pumped about 30% (which is good for me).
However, after reading this, i might sell atleast half of my bag before september 7th.
Worst case, if it sharply drops, i might rebuy with lower price to get a better DCA
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August 30, 2020, 08:19:40 AM
 #4

Nice explanantion of the project in genral, was wondering what the hell is this project after noticing it on coinpaparika top.

Also nice DD on why the price is going only up and up, if one can know for sure when they will unlock the tokens, that could be an indicator when to get out of this token!

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August 30, 2020, 08:20:16 AM
 #5

Yeah there is the possibility of a huge sell off comes September 7 - 12 with a cost price of $0.30 definitely many will take profit no doubt but I think some will sell depending on the upcoming news the team have, sometimes things don't always go the way it is expected, I have seen several cases where people anticipate a fall in price but the opposite will happen.

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August 30, 2020, 08:29:09 AM
 #6

makes sense most investors will want to sell their bag at 6 dollar for a token that sold so cheap during sales.. this same event happened with hybrix and now the coin is down to 1.3usd from 6usd max..
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August 30, 2020, 08:30:27 AM
 #7

this is the more reason why one should make detail research on a coin before rushing to buy into it.. I heard about this coin few days ago.. and was planning to buy into it before reading this thread.. thanks for the head up
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August 30, 2020, 08:41:44 AM
 #8

In my opinion, the Polkadot and its ecosystem is so hyped right now that even in the short term there is not much of a risk in investing in it at those relatively high prices. Its ecosystem is expanding rapidly and this will effect its positive price action as well I suppose. But then again, how high can it go, definitely into the top 5 per MC, but can it reach #3 position? In the mid/long term, probably. 
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August 30, 2020, 08:50:37 AM
 #9

I like your strategy and what you wrote. I also do not believe in the endless pump in prices and I also expect when the price starts to fall. the project is really good but now the price of the coin is too high. I want to buy at $ 2

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zasad@ (OP)
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August 30, 2020, 10:01:32 AM
 #10

I also think that if you consider an investment for 2-3 years, it will not be a mistake to buy at $ 6, but why do that?
I would wait until mid-September.

New coins will also be issued on Polkadot, and the price of Polkadot will only grow.
I have written an opinion for those who are going to buy this coin for short-term speculation.
In the next 15 days, I will be monitoring the price to try to buy at $ 2-3.

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August 30, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
 #11

this informations is very helpfull for me, last day i bought polkadot 2000$ worth dot  at 5.5$ price and sell it on 6.2$, today i wish to buy more to make small profit by holding it 1 day, but after reading your threads im still think twice to buy and take small profit like before, im afraid that the hype will gone right after i buy and then the price wont rise anymore, well lets see how long the hyper dot price above 5$ is continue or the price will down below 4$.

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August 30, 2020, 11:49:59 AM
 #12

Yeah there is the possibility of a huge sell off comes September 7 - 12 with a cost price of $0.30 definitely many will take profit no doubt but I think some will sell depending on the upcoming news the team have, sometimes things don't always go the way it is expected, I have seen several cases where people anticipate a fall in price but the opposite will happen.
ofcourse there will big dumped if token  released in market, from 3 cents and now around $6,1 which investors that will not sell their assets after get huge return.

Nice infor @OP, i would heed your suggestion of waiting for sometime since the lock in period is expring and there would probably a huge sell off after the locked token is released.   A profit of more than 1000% is very tempting so I also see a large number of investors to sell their holding in exchange of a huge profit.
waiting till all information above realized will be safe decision ever. dont tempted on polkadot hype at this moment, we must think twice with current price and all possibility that could happen.
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August 31, 2020, 11:17:31 AM
 #13

~
I also planned to buy this coin, but after talking with different people, I changed my mind while investing in it.
I will wait until mid-September.

Your opinion?

I have mixed feelings about whether to buy right now or postpone for a while. The technology they put out  speaks for itself, it's good and innovative in some respect, but nowadays not everything depends on technologies... there are a lot of various factors that could either mainstream or torpedo it.   Btw, there are a  few more Polcadot's threads here on forum that could help to take the right decision:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5270731.msg55047581#msg55047581

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2273347.msg54818781#msg54818781


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August 31, 2020, 12:10:13 PM
 #14

i had actually brought a bit of Polkadot  last week from binance seeing some other article and sold it after the pump . if the price goes down i'll add a couple hundreds of Polkadot , just to have enough in the bag for the future.
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August 31, 2020, 12:10:21 PM
 #15

This is very helpful information that you have given, especially now that I have been monitoring DOT after a friend recommended that I take a quick look at this. It would be much better for all of us to wait for the date where the price will sharply drop, that way we would be able to buy at a very low price and be able to help earn more once the price starts to go up again. The information is pretty straightforward and is a warning to us. So I will listen and monitor this further as the days pass by.

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zasad@ (OP)
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August 31, 2020, 02:27:24 PM
 #16

For Polkadot coins, the economy is calculated so that 20-40% of the coins are locked. All projects that want to be connected to the network will be forced to deposit a lot of Polkadot coins.
Therefore, now lock drops are gaining great popularity, and the longer you agree to lock your coins, the more project coins you will receive.

for example, one of the popular projects
https://lockdrop.plasmnet.io/#/lock-form

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August 31, 2020, 05:53:59 PM
 #17

ICO raised $ 144 million, the average purchase price of a coin 30 cents !
Polkadot ICO lost $91 Million to parity bug.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7bd0tm/polkadot_ico_lost_91_million_to_parity_bug/
The project remains $ 53 million

That is all I member. It is good to see that that bug did not sunk the project. Suddenly 2/3 of founds vanished.
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August 31, 2020, 08:40:06 PM
 #18

With the hype around this project do not expect a crash in price of DOT like you said in your post, even if sellers come in big numbers there are already buyers waiting for a dip so i do not think this will crash it will just dip and take a sharp turn back.

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August 31, 2020, 08:42:25 PM
 #19

Polkadot is trending coin at the moment and looks like it is the choice of big investors for now which is keeping the price up. I have seen most projects dropping in price first after listing on exchanges but dot just seem to go up.

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August 31, 2020, 08:55:02 PM
 #20

Best time to buy Dot coins was when it was available for $2 to $3. I hope it will come down to this price range again but with the market and demand i do not see that anytime soon, to be honest.

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