USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win !

[squatz1]

So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

[JollyGood]

So why do you think chances of Trump winning are probably slimmer than in the 2016 election? Even if he wins on the night he could lose when mail votes are counted and the same goes for Biden.

This one will end up in Court...

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

[aesma]

So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

I don't think it's really the same thing as 2016. In 2016 Trump was the outsider not doing a classical campaign, who himself didn't expect to win. Hillary was the "chosen one".

Today, despite Trump's flaws, he's the incumbent. Most sitting presidents manage to get reelected, as bad as they are (W Bush anyone ?). The fact that Trump is behind in the polls is a testament that he's worse than bad. But he can still make it.

[TwitchySeal]

So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

I don't think it's really the same thing as 2016. In 2016 Trump was the outsider not doing a classical campaign, who himself didn't expect to win. Hillary was the "chosen one".

Today, despite Trump's flaws, he's the incumbent. Most sitting presidents manage to get reelected, as bad as they are (W Bush anyone ?). The fact that Trump is behind in the polls is a testament that he's worse than bad. But he can still make it.

He also promised to make america great again.  And, by pretty much every metric, it's not.

[JollyGood]

First of all there will not be a civil war in the USA based on disputed Presidential election results.

Secondly, why blame a hypothetical civil war on the left? Will the right be completely innocent if anything like a civil war prevailed?

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

[aesma]

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html

[JollyGood]

I never looked at it from that perspective before. He does seem to be obsessed with using brute force to quell protests.

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html

[Spendulus]

I never looked at it from that perspective before. He does seem to be obsessed with using brute force to quell protests.

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html

Obsessed with using brute force to quell protests?

Not exactly what's occurred here in the USA.

[Mauser]

What does Michael Moore know that we don't know? I don't think he is a credible source for predictions. We all know Michael Moore has a  political agenda himself. I wouldn't bet on his recommendations. At the moment it still looks pretty close between Trump and Biden, the election could go either way. Maybe best to wait for the TV debates.

[JollyGood]

When all the polls were forecasting a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, it was Michael Moore that said Trump would win.

And now Michael Moore is saying that the left and the anti-Trump voters have taken it for granted they will vote Trump out of office therefore he is warning of an even bigger win for Trump than he did in 2016 unless those people actually ensure they vote.

The first television debate between Trump and Biden will be interesting. I think Biden will struggle because he seems to be coming across as fragile, frail. Trump will probably walk all over Biden in the television debate even though he would have the opportunity to use the whole tax returns drama against Trump. I think Biden will probably fail to capitalise.

What does Michael Moore know that we don't know? I don't think he is a credible source for predictions. We all know Michael Moore has a  political agenda himself. I wouldn't bet on his recommendations. At the moment it still looks pretty close between Trump and Biden, the election could go either way. Maybe best to wait for the TV debates.

[Gyfts]

So why do you think chances of Trump winning are probably slimmer than in the 2016 election? Even if he wins on the night he could lose when mail votes are counted and the same goes for Biden.

This one will end up in Court...

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

Mail in ballots will favor Joe Biden. There's a bias between democrats and republicans between how they perceive the danger of coronavirus, so more democrats than republicans will be sending in mail in ballots. At this point, I think Trump needs to win in convincing fashion in key swing states to overcome Joe Biden's wave of mail in ballots that'll slowly trickle in after election day, and I don't think it's impossible for Trump to do this, but I think it's unlikely.

On election day, RCP's polling average gave Clinton a ~3pt average lead, and Trump was able to narrowly win by something like 50k votes in 3 swing states. RCP now versus Biden shows the polls are brutal for Trump.

Trump in 2016 was able to walk away with states that Mitt Romney lost in 2012 despite getting fewer votes than Romney in these states. Basically, an even lesser turnout for the Republican nominee in 2016 relative to 2012 yielded state wins for Trump. People absolutely hated Hillary Clinton and did not show up to the polls to vote for her, but Joe Biden's more likeable so I think he'll yield a higher turnout.

[squatz1]

So why do you think chances of Trump winning are probably slimmer than in the 2016 election? Even if he wins on the night he could lose when mail votes are counted and the same goes for Biden.

This one will end up in Court...

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

Mail in ballots will favor Joe Biden. There's a bias between democrats and republicans between how they perceive the danger of coronavirus, so more democrats than republicans will be sending in mail in ballots. At this point, I think Trump needs to win in convincing fashion in key swing states to overcome Joe Biden's wave of mail in ballots that'll slowly trickle in after election day, and I don't think it's impossible for Trump to do this, but I think it's unlikely.

On election day, RCP's polling average gave Clinton a ~3pt average lead, and Trump was able to narrowly win by something like 50k votes in 3 swing states. RCP now versus Biden shows the polls are brutal for Trump.

Trump in 2016 was able to walk away with states that Mitt Romney lost in 2012 despite getting fewer votes than Romney in these states. Basically, an even lesser turnout for the Republican nominee in 2016 relative to 2012 yielded state wins for Trump. People absolutely hated Hillary Clinton and did not show up to the polls to vote for her, but Joe Biden's more likeable so I think he'll yield a higher turnout.

Totally agree with this. Biden is not on the same level of swampiness (or perceived swapiness) as Clinton. To most people Biden is just a guy who's been in politics for a long time, served as Bidens loyal VP for 8 years and that's really it. I think Obama is one of the saving forces of his campaign, b/c without the African American vote Biden's campaign would've been dead a LONG TIME AGO.

Clinton was just horrible. Biden isn't perceived the same way that Clinton is. No one thinks Biden is just offing people in the offtime, and Biden's wife doesn't have sex scandals that were buried.

So yeah, Dem turnout will be higher this year no DOUBT. Debate tonight though may turn the tides, we'll see.

[JollyGood]

Trump is going to use the whole mail voting issue to create a new drama. It is clear if he wins re-election he is will gladly accept it but if he loses the election then he will cry foul about the mail votes.

I was not impressed at all with the manner in which Trump conducted himself in the television presidential debate. Biden was not too much better but I think he came out better than Trump in the end and somewhat thwarted the plans Trump had for him.

[aesma]

Keep in mind Trump has been complaining about the 2016 election, ranting about Hillary, voter fraud, etc., for 4 years, even though he won ! So there is no doubt he will do the same for 2020, in fact he's already doing it. That should exclude you from even being a candidate, but alas it isn't written in the constitution that you actually have to accept the election result...

[JollyGood]

As per your own post the writing is clearly on the wall, this one has to go to court for the judges to decide who gets in to the White House unless of course one candidate manages an indisputable landslide win over the other without the mail voting being a major factor.

Keep in mind Trump has been complaining about the 2016 election, ranting about Hillary, voter fraud, etc., for 4 years, even though he won ! So there is no doubt he will do the same for 2020, in fact he's already doing it. That should exclude you from even being a candidate, but alas it isn't written in the constitution that you actually have to accept the election result...

[Spendulus]

As per your own post the writing is clearly on the wall, this one has to go to court for the judges to decide who gets in to the White House unless of course one candidate manages an indisputable landslide win over the other without the mail voting being a major factor....

But Michael Moore has already called it.

[BADecker]

If anybody can walk into an unguarded voting machine warehouse, nobody knows who will win anything, right?


Random Journalist Enters Unguarded Philly Warehouse Where 'Memory Stick' Voting Machines Stored

On Thursday, investigative journalist Max Marin walked into a Philadelphia warehouse where election machines are stored - walking around rows upon rows of the devices which apparently had zero security despite this week's headlines about stolen memory sticks.

An investigation into potential election tampering has been launched in Philadelphia after several memory sticks and a laptop used to program voting machines were stolen from a city warehouse, officials confirmed on Wednesday. The laptop belonged to an on-site employee for the company that supplies the machines.

It is unclear when the equipment was stolen, however a Philadelphia Inquirer source says the items vanished last week.

And while City officials said on Wednesday that the theft would not disrupt voting on November 3, they worried behind the scenes that the theft would fuel theories from President Trump and his allies over the integrity of the city's elections.

Perhaps coincidentally, President Trump on Tuesday knocked Philadelphia for allegedly refusing to let poll watchers into voting locations. (The Inquirer says that's false)

City commissioners initially refused to confirm the theft, or that an investigation had been launched, according to the Inquirer - and only did so after the outlet told them that they would be reporting the incident based on sources who were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

[aesma]

In my country voting machines were introduced recently in some cities, but have been mostly rejected, we still vote "by hand". Of course we don't hold many elections at the same time, the presidential election is just that, we vote for one single person. The name is written in large font on a piece of paper, pretty simple (if you know how to read, of course...).

When I look at the US paper ballots, they're frighteningly complex !

[Wayan_Pedjeng]

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

[TwitchySeal]

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

Even with the pandemic, they're expecting record setting voter turn out.  Over 1 million people have already voted, at this point in 2016 that number was less than 10k.