USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win !

[JollyGood]

The Guardian: Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win. Film-maker says enthusiasm for president in swing states is ‘off the charts’ and urges everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote.

Moore, one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.

The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House. “Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said. “Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?” Moore posted on Facebook late on Friday.

Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning

So will Trump do it and get in to the Whitehouse by again losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college?

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[Poker Player]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. And I have a feeling that if Trump wins, the BLM movement is not going to take it well.

[Spendulus]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

[Gyfts]

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

[Poker Player]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

[aesma]

Trump is claiming if he loses then that means the election is rigged, isn't that exactly what you're accusing "the left" of doing ? Even when he won in 2016 he still said there was fraud against him ! And of course, the "people" actually didn't give him power, the system did. The swamp.

[Febo]

Moore, one of few political observers to predict Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, said that “enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts” in key areas compared with the Democratic party nominee, Joe Biden.

Joe Biden is very poor choice for Democrats. But on the other hand Donald Trump is a catastrophic choice for Republicans.  Luckily I dont need to decide. If would live in USA would probably chose not to vote.

[Spendulus]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

Sure, revolution is the product of a radical, violent small minority.

But Russia had had a long history of fascination with communism.

[TwitchySeal]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

Sure, revolution is the product of a radical, violent small minority.

But Russia had had a long history of fascination with communism.

[Spendulus]

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.

Sure, revolution is the product of a radical, violent small minority.

But Russia had had a long history of fascination with communism.

...

I have no idea what that nice pic is supposed to imply, but suggest you spend time on campaigns that you might have a positive effect on, and be working with winners. If Trump doesn't do it for you, then some local or state contests? Just saying. Things have devolved quite a bit here from Sanders...

[JollyGood]

You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.

Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts but I cannot see how a civil war is on the political horizon in the USA. That perspective seems far-fetched.

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. And I have a feeling that if Trump wins, the BLM movement is not going to take it well.

[Coyster]

You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.

Isn't that how it should be, Biden's supporters, the BLM and those who think Trump has had a bad four years as POTUS wouldn't celebrate if Trump wins, there could be maybe few riots here and there from members of the BLM, but that will be all, nothing significant, the U.S. is a first world nation and I think if there's any case of post election violence, it will be extinguished asap.

Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts

When politicians go to court after losing an election, it usually doesn't change the result at the end of the court hearing, sometimes I wonder why they still make that move of going to court. In some third world countries, post election cases can last over four years (adjournment upon adjournment) by then the winners tenure is already up, lol, it's a waste of time imo.

[TwitchySeal]

You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.

Isn't that how it should be, Biden's supporters, the BLM and those who think Trump has had a bad four years as POTUS wouldn't celebrate if Trump wins, there could be maybe few riots here and there from members of the BLM, but that will be all, nothing significant, the U.S. is a first world nation and I think if there's any case of post election violence, it will be extinguished asap.

Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts

When politicians go to court after losing an election, it usually doesn't change the result at the end of the court hearing, sometimes I wonder why they still make that move of going to court. In some third world countries, post election cases can last over four years (adjournment upon adjournment) by then the winners tenure is already up, lol, it's a waste of time imo.

It's definitely possible that what you're describing is what happens.
But if it's even a somewhat close election and Biden is declared the winner, it's entirely possible Trump just says 'no, he cheated, I won'. or 'we need a do over, here's an executive order now you have to do it' or whatever.

And then what.

Trump still has a couple months with all the powers of the president.  The entire Military reports to him, he's already demonstrated how easy it is to pretend like congress doesn't exist and manipulate the media, there are millions of Americans that actually believe the things he says - no matter how irrational or obviously untrue they are - and millions more that think it's funny when people get pissed that he lies so much.  That's a shitload of power.

As soon as we don't know who the president is, (half the country considers Biden President, the other half thinks it's Trump), we're no longer a first world country or the United States.

[Coyster]

But if it's even a somewhat close election and Biden is declared the winner, it's entirely possible Trump just says 'no, he cheated, I won'. or 'we need a do over, here's an executive order now you have to do it' or whatever.

Donald Trump even as the president doesn't have the right to cancel or nullify the results of an election, in any case he loses. The most he can do is to take the matter to court, if he feels there were election manipulations and stuffs like that which led to his defeat in the polls. What you just said above is more common in countries with military unrest and dictators as presidents (mostly third world countries). The U.S. is not any of that.

[squatz1]

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.

+1 to that.

I think I've really flip flopped a lot during this cycle. But I do think that we're going to end up with a VERY slight win from either side. As of right now I'm leaning on Trump being the person who is going to edge out Biden by a FEW electoral votes. When I mean a few I truly mean like 2-8 electoral votes to end all of this out.

The national polls are going to show Trump down by like 8 or so. Which may end up what the popular vote is at the end of this. But I think Trump will win by like 50k votes in those same swing states. Here's a good pic from 538 showing what polls are showing (and leaning towards in the future):

[Gyfts]

Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

[TwitchySeal]

Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

Marist also just released two FL polls showing Trump +1 in Fl in and dead heat on the other with Latinos supporting Trump 51%.

I assume it's the Miami/Tampa Cubans that are swinging the hispanic vote like you said.  Another thing to consider though is that the Cuban population is generally older and make more money than other minorities (aside from asians probably).

I wonder if his decision to tighten sanctions on Cuba are viewed as a good or bad thing by American Cubans in general.  I assumed bad, but these polls are making me second guess.

Edit: Just realized the Marist poll is the NBC one you were talking about.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults_Registered-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712220.pdf

[Gyfts]

Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

Marist also just released two FL polls showing Trump +1 in Fl in and dead heat on the other with Latinos supporting Trump 51%.

I assume it's the Miami/Tampa Cubans that are swinging the hispanic vote like you said.  Another thing to consider though is that the Cuban population is generally older and make more money than other minorities (aside from asians probably).

I wonder if his decision to tighten sanctions on Cuba are viewed as a good or bad thing by American Cubans in general.  I assumed bad, but these polls are making me second guess.

Edit: Just realized the Marist poll is the NBC one you were talking about.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults_Registered-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712220.pdf

Didn't think of income level, interesting. Are Cubans in Florida really that well off? 

Florida's obviously a coin toss but they've been voting red last two election cycles. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Florida went for Trump again with latinos swinging it in his favor but who knows if they'll turn out.

[casperBGD]

here is one article that could be interesting, and i share author thinking
https://medium.com/better-marketing/trumps-latest-move-against-biden-is-pure-marketing-genius-fd908666c485

it is referring to the marketing campaign that Trump is starting to put on, and seems that he has much better marketing strategy than Democrats

it is a video from the article
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw-KH9csjSc

[JollyGood]

Democrats and Republicans both have their fringe elements to the extreme left and to the extreme right, neither made any rationale for a civil war though. There will be a problem with mailing votes but to which extent the loser of the election (either Trump or Biden) use it as a distraction or excuse remains to be seen.

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"