Too much HODLing stealing opportunities?

[Stedsm]

For noobs, HODLing is a term used for "holding" your assets (here: Bitcoins) for a very long time. But, isn't it true that those who bought it at $500 once should have sold it at $20k peak, and if not, why didn't they sell at $15k? BTC didn't crash all at once and they had the opportunity to sell and wait for another opportunity. A $15k per BTC against a $500 BTC - means a 30x return itself. And BTC crashed to $3k, if not $3k, then these hodlers would have bought back at $6k which is even less than half of $15k as they would also have added a lot more liquidity to the markets with too much money on the table. Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

[harizen]

In most cases, even the price target has already reached when to sold, there's a hesitation if they will execute their sell mode now since they are anticipating that price will still increase more due to a strong and positive upward trend. There's always a quote saying, "why should I sell when the price is increasing".

And let's say, the other way around happened, which is the price went down instead, there's still in their mindset that it's just a usual correction and when settled, price will have some boost later.

Taking from your example, that kind of mindset affects their decision so instead of doing something, they just watch instead what happened from $15,000 to $3,000.

[Lanatsa]

For noobs, HODLing is a term used for "holding" your assets (here: Bitcoins) for a very long time. But, isn't it true that those who bought it at $500 once should have sold it at $20k peak, and if not, why didn't they sell at $15k? BTC didn't crash all at once and they had the opportunity to sell and wait for another opportunity. A $15k per BTC against a $500 BTC - means a 30x return itself. And BTC crashed to $3k, if not $3k, then these hodlers would have bought back at $6k which is even less than half of $15k as they would also have added a lot more liquidity to the markets with too much money on the table. Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

You cant blame them off yet you aren't into their situation specially if they hold lots of bitcoin or alts into their stash.We can say that holding too much does really give out that mistake yet
if we do think up sensibly we do really miss out lots of opportunities to make money but due to hope and believe on the project they do rather choose to standby and didn't sell off inspite of the
best spot or ATH. Its their money after all therefore they do have the full rights on what they do gonna do but we are sure that they do really have those regrets when they do
realize that they should at least consider selling that time and make tons of profits.

[sheenshane]

For noobs? You're calling noobs who use this term HODLing? Cap wearers on WO thread are almost using this term, I don't think they are noobs. In fact, they are good at predicting and showing technical analysis.

Each Bitcoin holders or HODLers have a different perspective of having insight into taking a profit. If you are a panic seller during crash, you're not a real crypto enthusiast. Too much hold will depend on you, of course, you will also monitor the market while holding your Bitcoin and wait for the most anticipated event when bullish trend comes. You probably dumb if you sell under the price you have bought Bitcoin.

Having a wise decision is a part of this game since Bitcoin is unpredictable the price, you should know the right timing of selling your crypto asset, nor you might have a loss.

[GreatArkansas]

We don't know what will happen, you can't tell those numbers when we haven't yet experienced or reach those.
It's really difficult. Compare to me, when I first bought my Bitcoin I am hoping a very huge returns or hold it for a long time to reserve for my next generation. Owning Bitcoin makes me proud, even no one knows I am holding some.
But what I treat on my Bitcoin bought on different prices are kinda my emergency funds, if ever there are some urgent needs or whatever happens, I have my Bitcoin and use it.

[Yogee]

The thinking is different when you bought at $500 and when you bought at $20K. Someone who bought at $500 is more relaxed since he is still up even if the market crashed to $3K. Someone who bought at $20K would have sold a long time ago to cut losses. It's actually easy to say things in hindsight but the situation is different when you're in that moment.  

It's true that they could have increased their bags if they sold at ATH or near it then bought back at dips but, like you said, they have a specific target and more likely a different strategy. Maybe they just kept on buying and buying while btc is crashing to further increase their bags rather than playing the trading game which they're not so good at. Dollar cost averaging is a common strategy for long term holders. They can be noobs at reading charts and price movements but can still be good at analyzing fundamentals.

[mk4]

Hindsight is 20-20.

It's pretty easy to say stuff like "I should've sold here" and "I should've bought here" when we can already see what happened to the price. But the thing is, who knew that the $15k price was already near peak, and who knew that it would drop down as low as $3k?

Yes, buying and selling at certain price points could earn you more money or multiple your bitcoin; but take note that this is completely assuming that you can actually make the right trades, in which, most people can't and are better off just holding through the ups and downs.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Thats fine if you had a crystal ball. Even the crash on 3k is so unexpected, I mean the market will crash due to the covid situation during that time but the rate of speed on how it goes down is really you know unbelievable. Its like it happened in a split seconds, you just wake up then its swimming now on reddish pool.

I also regret not selling all my valuable tokens last bull run and some become useless now due to my greed of maybe it would increase more. Lesson learned really happened in the end when its already too late.

[maydna]

First, we have a different target price sell, so when we want to sell bitcoin, we need a reason why we sell at one price. The problem here is many people are greedy when the price can touch $15k, and they prefer to wait for another highest price. So many of them still hold bitcoin even if the price already touches $15k.

If you see the price can increase so high, higher than the price you buy, that will be your chance to sell bitcoin while you can wait for another correction that will happen soon after the high peak. If you can buy bitcoin at $3k, you can make a target price sell at $10k and sell it right away when the price touch that target price. You don't need to be sad if suddenly, the price can increase more than that because when the price makes a correction, you can buy more bitcoin with the profit that you already have. You will get more amount of bitcoin that you sell before, so you can have more chances to sell it for another highest price.

But yes, perhaps, too much holding can steal the opportunity to make more profit, so we need to take the profit while we can.

[feitannnnnnn]

For noobs? You're calling noobs who use this term HODLing? Cap wearers on WO thread are almost using this term, I don't think they are noobs. In fact, they are good at predicting and showing technical analysis.

I think what he means is that, for people who doesn't know, or newbie, what the term HODling stands for. Its just that a misuse of words which can we say part of him. But for me, I understand what he means for that.

And I also agree that they are good at predicting, maybe just that they are thinking that it may rise again after the crash.

[semobo]

For noobs, HODLing is a term used for "holding" your assets (here: Bitcoins) for a very long time. But, isn't it true that those who bought it at $500 once should have sold it at $20k peak, and if not, why didn't they sell at $15k? BTC didn't crash all at once and they had the opportunity to sell and wait for another opportunity. A $15k per BTC against a $500 BTC - means a 30x return itself. And BTC crashed to $3k, if not $3k, then these hodlers would have bought back at $6k which is even less than half of $15k as they would also have added a lot more liquidity to the markets with too much money on the table. Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

HODLing is the the term used for the real bitcoin ethusiast as well, they will keep holding their bitcoin no matter where the price goes to.Apart from this can be used for the long term investor and if they are not selling for such returns then they may lose their opportunity but they expect the prices to keep increasing all the way when they are feeling bullish for long term.

[mk4]

I also regret not selling all my valuable tokens last bull run and some become useless now due to my greed of maybe it would increase more. Lesson learned really happened in the end when its already too late.

Look at the bright side here, you actually learned your lesson! Meanwhile some people still tightly hold some tokens and altcoins in general that are still up to this day continuing to go down in value.

[Lucius]

Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

That’s actually a good question, and I’ve asked it to myself many times. The question is whether one should seize the opportunity when ATH happens and sell at least part of it, or one should simply ignore the possibility of profit?

I have written something on this topic before, and let's say that now I think I made a mistake at the end of 2017 that I did not sell at least 1 BTC. The reason is of course that after ATH there is always a correction, and in less than a year for 1 sold BTC you could buy 6+ BTC. If you look back at say 2015 when BTC was only worth $200 and 2017 when it was worth almost $20 000 smart players could do this :

- buy 1 BTC for $200 in 2015
- sell 1 BTC for $20 000 in 2017
- buy 6+ BTC for $20 000 in 2018
- holding 6 BTC worth $60 000 today

Not bad if you look at the initial investment and only the 5 years it took to make it happen. So I agree that just holding is not the smartest thing, but that smart selling can be very profitable.

[joniboini]

I agree that smart selling is better than holding, but you can get rekt trying to find where to exit and where to rebuy. Like what has been mentioned already, it's easy when you already see it happens and said "oh this is a good exit" and "look like this is the right time to rebuy". Most OGs would probably never executed that perfectly and will only have targets like sell 5% if it reach 9K, sell another if it reach 12k, wait for a dip to 9k, if it dips more buy again at 6k, etc etc. But they still lose a bit to average down.

This is closely related to exit strategies too. I personally would keep 50% of my holding and just wait and see where it will years later (since I already made profits from it). Either I become a billionaire or it will worth nothing at all.

[davis196]

This is a rhetorical question.Of course that the hardcore HODLers are wasting opportunities by refusing to buy and sell at the right time.However,many people are scared to take that risk,so they choose the safest bet-to HODL as long as possible,waiting for the new ATH(which might never come).
It is proven that more than 96% of the forex/crypto traders lose more money that they make,so maybe HODLing your Bitcoins and waiting isn't a bad move,even though it's annoying,when the price goes down.

[maxreish]

Those noobs you are talking are the ones who actually gained more because they tend to hold bitcoin for a long time which means they probably sell it in a high price. I mean, who will gonna sell bitcoin in deficit price? Except those who are in a desperate need of something. But when we say long term holding, we tend to set sell price, our goal here is to acquire profit even we wait for a long time. We are waiting for the good opportunity to sell off our bitcoin in a good price.
 
 However, maximizing our time with a good management of bitcoin holding is hard to achieve. We need patience, good timing to sell and to buy. Good technical analysis. And it will just steal some opportunity if one long term holder doesn't have a good management plan.

[Assface16678]

Still, not all the time holding is one of the most efficient things you could do because you miss some opportunities.

Base on my experience I bought a coin when the lowest market price of the coin and wait for the right time and after the market price of the coin goes up into the 11k market I still holding my coin because I just think there is a chance to make another profit and pump into 15k mark and now it's already falling down into 10k.

Some things getting greedy makes you a lot of trouble than playing safe still it depends on you how you handle because for me if you already earn profit why not pull it out.

[Botnake]

Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

It depends on your target, opportunity means you already hit the target since we are talking of "HODL" which is for long term investment. The reason why we are holding for long term is to gain more profit, so selling when target is not hit yet despite low profit is not something that would satisfy the holders. I know what you are trying to say, but that's how it is, if we aim high, then we should be more patient and believe that bitcoin will rise.

Honestly, it takes a lot of discipline to do these things properly as we never know what lies ahead, but if we don't make things complicated and we stick with our target, we would be so successful and we not experience a stressful life since we don't decide by our emotion.

[Wexnident]

We each have our own plans, and most cases, as you said, people have a certain "goal" to reach before grabbing the opportunity. But here's the thing, what if their goal wasn't $15k? Wasn't $20k? Then their choice would be completely understandable. Even if you did say that they could've been satisfied with the 30x return, you're not them, so they may not actually be satisfied at all with that goal.

That, and another reason would probably be greed. People are pretty greedy, sometimes price has reached their set goal but they see that it still actually grows, what do you think they would do? Ofc, adjust their goal, thinking that they can still "profit" more off of Bitcoin. Well, time will tell whether they're decision is actually good or not, and besides, they've hodl it for more than a few years, another few or more probably wouldn't hurt their pockets that much.

[Harlot]

Isn't it true that too long a hodl can stop you from taking great opportunities while sitting dumb and waiting for a specific target?

Yeah this is true and the problem here is most newbies in the market who have these kinds of situation where they can profit from it are almost always don't know what to do with it. I don't know if they are striving for a more bigger price or they just waiting for something but generally they are just relax while the price is climbing as they think it won't stop going up. But all of this would change once they see that big long red candle and everyone is starting to panic. That's how majority of  the new traders act, they lack the ability to push that sell button and just continue to hodl it.