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mk4
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September 16, 2020, 02:30:09 PM |
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Probably a dip, as people would probably be more confident to allocate money to businesses/companies(and away from the hedges like gold) that are halted by the pandemic, but I'm not really sure about a "crash".
I'm personally expecting a bigger dip with gold than with bitcoin though; bitcoin has been pretty much mirroring the S&P500 for a while now.
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Charles-Tim
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September 16, 2020, 02:33:48 PM |
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I have made an article about what the code of coronavirus vaccine will be before on politics and society board. 5. How much will it cost? While billions of dollars are being invested in vaccine development, millions more are being pledged to buy and supply the vaccine. Prices per dose depend on the type of vaccine, the manufacturer and the number of doses ordered. Pharmaceutical company Moderna, for example, is reportedly selling access to its potential vaccine at between $32 and $37 a dose (£24 to £28). AstraZeneca, on the other hand has said it will supply its vaccine "at cost" - or a few dollars per dose - during the pandemic. The Serum Institute of India (SSI), the world's largest vaccine manufacturer by volume, is being backed by $150m from Gavi and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to make and deliver up to 100 million doses of the successful Covid-19 vaccines for India and low- and middle-income countries. They say the ceiling price will be $3 (£2.28) a dose. But patients receiving the vaccine are unlikely to be charged in most cases. In the UK, mass distribution will be via the NHS health service. Student doctors and nurses, dentists and vets could be trained to back up existing NHS staff in administering the jab en masse. Consultation is currently under way. Other countries, such as Australia, have said they will offer free doses to their population. People receiving vaccines via humanitarian organisations - a vital cog in the global distribution wheel - will not be charged. In the US, while the shot might be free, healthcare professionals could charge for administering the jab - leaving uninsured Americans possibly facing a vaccine bill.
People are not ready to even use the vaccine not to talk of buying it. With time, the vaccine will be free or have low cost. Do not think that people will take from their bitcoin to buy the vaccine too, and if there is, it will be negligible compared to bitcoin marketcap. Do not reason the vaccine will have any effect at all, imo.
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pawanjain
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September 16, 2020, 02:41:36 PM |
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Why do you think that the corona virus vaccine will make bitcoin crash ? While it does seem like a possibility that the people will start investing in stocks again to grab the opportunity to gain high profits when the economy recovers but that doesn't mean bitcoin will crash. The price might fall back a little because there are people who switched to bitcoin in the pandemic and they might return to stocks but more than that it is those people who hold and trade bitcoin from a long time. They won't panic sell their bitcoins and hence it is quite known that bitcoin will not crash but might dip a little. Besides that we have seen bigger crashes through the bitcoin history. It can't get worse than that ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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pakhitheboss
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September 16, 2020, 02:45:02 PM |
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If a vaccine is effective enough then only it may happen but there is no guarantee. To date we do not have an effective cure for AIDS virus, the same will happen for COVID19 as the virus has been evolving in regular interval.
A vaccine will not be available till early next year then you need to administer it to every human living on earth which will take time hence this dip which he predicts will take more than a decades time.
I also personally believes Gold will be more affected than Bitcoin because it is the most popular investment commodity.
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The Cryptovator
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We don't know really what will happen when an effective vaccine will discover. Because during the pandemic we thought bitcoin would dump hugely. But it happened reverse trend, although it was dumped for a while, but overall bitcoin has shown a strong resistance. So the same thing would happen, most of us wondering bitcoin would dump but it would reverse as well. When a COVID-19 will spread around the world then people's mentality will be more stronger. Probably they would invest in real life, so if it happens then bitcoin would dump. Otherwise, it would bump at the same time as global economies.
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kryptqnick
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September 16, 2020, 03:21:38 PM |
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I fail to grasp the logic behind this line of thought. Bitcoin did not crash, but it suffered significantly when the lockdown was announced. Then the lockdown was slowly abolished for less strict policies and Bitcoin started recovering. If the reason behind the future crash is the US debt, then the pandemic is only making it worse and making the crash of the US economy more likely, whereas a vaccine could stop the negative economic effects of the pandemic and thus let the world avoid the US economy crashing. Moreover, if the US economy crashed, the USD would surely crash, but I'm not so sure about gold. Instead, people could quickly move their wealth into gold as a safe haven, and gold could go up. An even more unsure case is with Bitcoin. If people turn to BTC in the case of the fiat crash (which seems very likely to me), the price would go up. There are many dots that don't connect here.
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tomahawk9
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September 16, 2020, 03:26:21 PM |
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The word "crash" makes it sound too apocalyptic. We'll definitely see a drop in price once the world goes back to normal thanks to a vaccine, mainly because ever since around feb/march when Covid19 began to spread worldwide traditional markets like the stock market have been in a nonstop upward movement (forming a bit of a "bubble" like the one in tech stocks), so that movement is bound to stop once covid is gone.
So, given the similar behaviour in the btc price charts with the stock market charts over the last 6 months, i think it's safe to assume that once traditional markets start to go down, btc will too, but the latter will recover in no time, as it always does...
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mk4
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September 16, 2020, 03:42:46 PM |
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The word "crash" makes it sound too apocalyptic.
Definitely, but boy, tell that to some of the Newbies(and Jr members) that posts threads with topics such as " why bitcoin crash? wen moon?" after a small typical 5% drop lmao.
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hatshepsut93
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September 16, 2020, 03:55:55 PM |
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What's the reasoning here? That the pandemic is behind Bitcoin recent growth, so vaccine would cause the opposite reaction? Or is he saying that if Bitcoin it tied to the US debt, will vaccine make the debt go away, or what? I don't think the recent market behavior supports that, we saw that recently Bitcoin was going hand-in-hand with all global markets, and the release of vaccine would be bullish news for them, although I doubt it would cause any huge reaction, because vaccine won't magically remove covid-19, this process will be long.
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fiulpro
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September 16, 2020, 04:54:31 PM |
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The reasoning itself is actually very unreasonable here since the vaccination won't hit the price of Bitcoins for sure. Firstly I believe the person writing this article wants to reason that vaccination will improve the situation and thus the person believes that people will start in cashing the bitcoins but I think you have to understand that even though the vaccination will be invented there are certain clinical trials that they will have to go through. After the clinical trials will come implementation , even after that one needs booster dose every while , the virus is mutating therefore it's hard to stop it by just vaccination and the long term health effects of COVID-19 are yet to be discovered.
Even though it's all over bitcoins won't crash hard since pandemic is the cause of growth maybe in some parts , maybe 10% but rest people are using it and now know the practical implications of Bitcoin themselves.
- It's not like people need bitcoins just in the time of pandemic , the economy itself won't magically improve after the vaccination is there .
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GideonGono
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September 16, 2020, 05:01:17 PM |
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Probably a dip, as people would probably be more confident to allocate money to businesses/companies(and away from the hedges like gold) that are halted by the pandemic, but I'm not really sure about a "crash".
I'm personally expecting a bigger dip with gold than with bitcoin though; bitcoin has been pretty much mirroring the S&P500 for a while now.
I agree with this I am expecting a little dip because I myself would seek a better way to earn (Real Life Business) rather than holding it in crypto and waiting for it to pump up. People would try to gain back the life that they had right before the pandemic and crypto might have saved them while the pandemic is on but it wouldn't remain that way when things go back to normal they would have some time to get out and start their own business since people doesn't need to stay at their house anymore.
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Nhor1011
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September 16, 2020, 05:11:21 PM |
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How and why covid 19 vaccine will cause bitcoin crash? Because maybe you think people will buy more vaccine than buying and investing in bitcoin. I doubt that this vaccine will affect too much in bitcoin because not all will buy vaccine unless they need it badly or if they are covid patient. Me personally don't want to buy a vaccine because i have fear that it will be like Dengvaxia vaccine before that instead help to recover it caused death to many childrens. The demand in bitcoin will not decrease because of that.
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avikz
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September 16, 2020, 05:20:46 PM |
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I partially agree to this statement. In any way it's a speculation we all are doing here. My speculation says, if an effective COVID Vaccine is found then we will definitely see bitcoin's price going down. It will happen because a lot of people will start squaring off their position in bitcoin and probably will go back to the traditional market. because there is a huge chance that the economy will start recovering once a vaccine is found. Businesses will start gaining confidence that the buying habit of the mass will be slowly back to track and hence they will try to increase the production which will result more job and more money in-flowing into the economy. So the focus will temporary shift towards the mainstream economy. But this will be temporary in nature. Because now institutional investors are showing big confidence in bitcoin so the market liquidity will remain high. I don't foresee any big trouble in crypto market even if a vaccine is found.
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Kakmakr
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September 16, 2020, 05:22:50 PM |
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I am a big fan of Robert ..... but I think this time he might be wrong. His book "Rich Dad Poor Dad" was a best seller for many years.... because it added value to the world. (It gave people hope) ..... but his other books was a bit of a let down. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) I would have agreed with Robert, if there was a huge spike in the Bitcoin price after the virus pandemic started... but there was only a slight increase and even a cool down after that. People did not really run to Bitcoin as a safe haven during this pandemic.... so there will not be a "crash" caused by those investors withdrawing their funds from Bitcoin... if the vaccine is found. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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Artemis3
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September 16, 2020, 07:19:53 PM |
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The word "crash" makes it sound too apocalyptic.
Definitely, but boy, tell that to some of the Newbies(and Jr members) that posts threads with topics such as " why bitcoin crash? wen moon?" after a small typical 5% drop lmao. Yes, i even stopped correcting them. Its endless. Wikipedia clearly defines what "crash" means (high two digits, ie. losing 75% value) and these fools keep calling "crash" any little dip. Nothing can make Bitcoin crash suddenly overnight, because it is in the hands of too many people that appreciate it, period. If some fool thinks its worthless and starts selling it (or "dump it") it will be bought back even faster than his ability to keep selling. Bitcoin is THAT valuable. Bitcoin price stood despite the pandemic. Why would the end of the pandemic means it loses its price? This is as nonsensical as it may get. But i guess someone just wants to attract attention. Internet social media as usual...
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iv4n
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September 16, 2020, 07:54:17 PM |
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And where is this vaccine? The more similar headlines I see, I am more confident in new bitcoint ath! It's how it goes, from year to the year... You read things on the internet and many so-called experts share their opinions, but in one moment you see a trend, everything points to one direction, you do the opposite and most likely you will make a profit! Now you can trust this guy (or any other guy, or news article) and sell what you have before the crash! Or be smart and try to strengthen your position and show more faith in bitcoin, and some others alts. In the end I am one of the people who don't believe that covid has any relations with crypto changes! Market moves up and down before covid and will do that after this covid, using covid excuse for changes is not a good example for anything.
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Jating
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September 16, 2020, 09:06:17 PM |
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Maybe it could have a short term effect, but I don't think it will crash hard though. Remember that we are in the way to five digits in March when the news of the this new pandemic that crash the whole market, not just crypto but traditional markets as well.
So if we didn't have this whole covid-19 scenario we could have been enjoying $12k or more today. My point is that bitcoin is so resilient with this kind of news that I don't think we could have some new stories that will crash the market again.
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livingfree
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September 16, 2020, 09:56:46 PM |
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I've never thought of this but as possibility could always come with this very volatile market.
What I thought of is that people will be more confident when a vaccine comes and it will be the time that they will start investing to save themselves from financial crisis.
They will resort to buy bitcoin instead of other traditional assets which could trigger bitcoin to another bull.
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wildflower18
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September 16, 2020, 11:46:50 PM |
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The word ”crash” is what others assume to happen in bitcoin. I don't think that's the right word for bitcoin, the price so happens plummets but not to the point that bitcoin could crash because of covid19. Some people able to sell Bitcoin and invest in other commodities but as we know in crypto price is volatile and we can see it again in bull market.
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