Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden

[aesma]

Just this week-end Trump has pushed for governor Kemp to throw away Georgia's results and call for the state's house to decide the result instead (in favor of Trump of course) so clearly he's still trying, although that one didn't work (and wouldn't have been enough even if it had worked) : https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html

[bryant.coleman]

Just this week-end Trump has pushed for governor Kemp to throw away Georgia's results and call for the state's house to decide the result instead (in favor of Trump of course) so clearly he's still trying, although that one didn't work (and wouldn't have been enough even if it had worked) : https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html

Obviously if he is going to concede that easily, then he would never raise such a huge amount for the post-election legal battle. IMO, even Trump knows that he is not going to get the election results overturned. These can be seen as pressure tactics, to discredit the victory by Biden. A large section of Trump supporters, and foreign leaders like Jair Bolsonaro think that the elections were stolen.

[Wawa2013]

Just this week-end Trump has pushed for governor Kemp to throw away Georgia's results and call for the state's house to decide the result instead (in favor of Trump of course) so clearly he's still trying, although that one didn't work (and wouldn't have been enough even if it had worked) : https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html

Obviously if he is going to concede that easily, then he would never raise such a huge amount for the post-election legal battle. IMO, even Trump knows that he is not going to get the election results overturned. These can be seen as pressure tactics, to discredit the victory by Biden. A large section of Trump supporters, and foreign leaders like Jair Bolsonaro think that the elections were stolen.

Trump does not realize what he has been doing so far, by not accepting Biden's victory makes him even worse in the eyes of the public.
I'm also sure Trump realizes that whatever he does is impossible to change the election results. But because Trump's character is not
a gentleman, Trump and his supporters continue to put pressure on Biden.

[Japinat]

Just this week-end Trump has pushed for governor Kemp to throw away Georgia's results and call for the state's house to decide the result instead (in favor of Trump of course) so clearly he's still trying, although that one didn't work (and wouldn't have been enough even if it had worked) : https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/trump-georgia-brian-kemp-phone-call/index.html

Obviously if he is going to concede that easily, then he would never raise such a huge amount for the post-election legal battle. IMO, even Trump knows that he is not going to get the election results overturned. These can be seen as pressure tactics, to discredit the victory by Biden. A large section of Trump supporters, and foreign leaders like Jair Bolsonaro think that the elections were stolen.

Trump does not realize what he has been doing so far, by not accepting Biden's victory makes him even worse in the eyes of the public.
I'm also sure Trump realizes that whatever he does is impossible to change the election results. But because Trump's character is not
a gentleman, Trump and his supporters continue to put pressure on Biden.

Well, after his term, he will be back to a businessman and not a politics, he will be back on private, so he doesn't really care about his reputation and he will just do is to fight and fight hoping the law will favor him with his case filed. Though we don't like to see this, but we can't do anything  but to wait, lots of greedy business interest are going on inside, an announcement is what makes this matter over.

[Cloudbet]

Dear community,

We would like to provide you with a quick update on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Some bets have yet to be settled due to unconfirmed election results. Although we are unable to confirm the payout schedule just yet, we wish to refer you to relevant resources to help you better understand what can be expected.

2020 Presidential Election Timeline published by The Congressional Research Service

Thank you for patience and make sure you follow this thread for further updates.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

[Sithara007]

Dear community,

We would like to provide you with a quick update on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Some bets have yet to be settled due to unconfirmed election results. Although we are unable to confirm the payout schedule just yet, we wish to refer you to relevant resources to help you better understand what can be expected.

2020 Presidential Election Timeline published by The Congressional Research Service

Thank you for patience and make sure you follow this thread for further updates.

Cheers,
Team Cloudbet

Why should there be a delay? I guess you are talking about some of the House results, which are yet to be declared. IMO, I have doubt regarding only one race (New York's 22nd congressional district). Most of the other close contests have been declared and certified by the authorities, including Iowa-02, which was won by Mariannette Miller-Meeks with a margin of 6 votes.

But this should not have any impact on the bets placed for the presidential election results, right? The outcome is confirmed for all the 50 states, as far as the POTUS elections are concerned.

[Lucasgabd]

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I don't think the result will change after the official count and besides trump has already lost his supporters and allies. Now that everything has been cleared, he need to accept his defeat in a professional manner and step out of the white house like a decent man.

well, in one thing we may agree here, Trump was never a decent man, this shetshow is just part of his play, making the democracy stronger is not something he usually does, it's the opposite.
same with Borsalino in Brazil.

and yes, as Saint-loup said seems like freebitcoin will pay out this bet on December 14th.

[STT]

Georgia 2nd recount confirms election result by about 12,000 votes.   I think that makes it more certain then the Florida recount of 20 years ago which also led to appeals and disputes into December on various details in similar upset, though that wasnt mid term.

The outcome is confirmed for all the 50 states, as far as the POTUS elections are concerned.

Outcome for each state has to be collated into a final result, with neither side conceding it has to be done manually via the electoral college which does meet on the 14th December I believe it is then.  When thats done its only paperwork left but in theory either side can win till electoral college themselves take the vote.  We do know the result almost certainly but in theory the supreme court can make rulings to upset and alter matters, its not going to happen in any scenario I've read.   All these dates are established and I always thought the 48hr mention on lots of presidential bets would prove too optimistic, even best case it was longer then that to count properly from what I saw.

Really its a waiting game, the interesting bet imo is the Senate run off which can drastically alter the balance of power.  Strategically that matters way more then wondering about 1 in a million alternate outcomes elsewhere.

[aesma]

What happened in 2016 by the way, did the betting sites pay after a couple of days, since Clinton conceded within 24 hours ? After all the process is the same, by then not all states had finished counting, the electors voted in December, etc. Conceding is nothing official.

[ralle14]

What happened in 2016 by the way, did the betting sites pay after a couple of days, since Clinton conceded within 24 hours ? After all the process is the same, by then not all states had finished counting, the electors voted in December, etc. Conceding is nothing official.

Yes, iirc in nitrogen they paid the bets between two to three days (still have it archived in my account) I can't say if it's the same with most of the bookies back then. Even if the losing side concedes or not that's up to them to settle bets at their own preferred pace if it backfires then that's their fault for paying early. At this point it seems very unlikely it goes the other way around.  

[bryant.coleman]

Yes, iirc in nitrogen they paid the bets between two to three days (still have it archived in my account) I can't say if it's the same with most of the bookies back then. Even if the losing side concedes or not that's up to them to settle bets at their own preferred pace if it backfires then that's their fault for paying early. At this point it seems very unlikely it goes the other way around.  

ROFL. If they are waiting for Trump to concede, then I am afraid that it is not going to happen anytime soon. The POTUS results came out more than a month ago. Those who won the bets deserve their winnings by now. I believe that none of the gambling sites have any solid reason to delay the payment, after December 14. That is when the electoral college will vote for the new president. The outcome of the voting from December 14 should be considered as final.

[malevolent]

I believe that none of the gambling sites have any solid reason to delay the payment, after December 14.

At BetMoose, for example, they have paid out some and withheld payments for other bets, in some cases even extending the outcome determination date until January 7th, it depends on the bet's stated decision logic. While annoying, in the eyes of a business it's probably better to annoy some bettors rather than risk that one in a million chance of Trump somehow 'winning', especially with how much money there is on some propositions.

[Timelord2067]

It's no skin off of my nose when the bookies payout on the POTUS wager, but I'm wondering if there was any disclaimers made by any of the gambling sites to say they wouldn't payout until the 20th of January which is when it looks like some sites are wait for to ensure they get their payouts right.

(and do these sites assert they have funds on hand to actually pay out the wagers one way or the other?)??

[malevolent]

It's no skin off of my nose when the bookies payout on the POTUS wager, but I'm wondering if there was any disclaimers made by any of the gambling sites to say they wouldn't payout until the 20th of January which is when it looks like some sites are wait for to ensure they get their payouts right.

Most of them are covered by their Terms of Service or FAQ stating they have the final say or something similar. As long as they don't stall with paying out past the inauguration date no one is going to reasonably say that they're scamming.

(and do these sites assert they have funds on hand to actually pay out the wagers one way or the other?)??

Sites where only players bet among themselves shouldn't have any issues paying out.

[johhnyUA]

At BetMoose, for example, they have paid out some and withheld payments for other bets, in some cases even extending the outcome determination date until January 7th, it depends on the bet's stated decision logic. While annoying, in the eyes of a business it's probably better to annoy some bettors rather than risk that one in a million chance of Trump somehow 'winning', especially with how much money there is on some propositions.

Many russian books already paid to who bet on Biden. And i doubt that they will revise their decision even if Trump will win (this is like 1-2 % i think). Too low risk for such outcome, and books don't want to angry people and want some money flow (some of winner will definitely bet on other games and so on)

[figmentofmyass]

At BetMoose, for example, they have paid out some and withheld payments for other bets, in some cases even extending the outcome determination date until January 7th, it depends on the bet's stated decision logic. While annoying, in the eyes of a business it's probably better to annoy some bettors rather than risk that one in a million chance of Trump somehow 'winning', especially with how much money there is on some propositions.

Many russian books already paid to who bet on Biden. And i doubt that they will revise their decision even if Trump will win (this is like 1-2 % i think). Too low risk for such outcome, and books don't want to angry people and want some money flow (some of winner will definitely bet on other games and so on)

many smaller books can afford the risk because they aren't that exposed to bets backing trump. as small books, they only took a limited number of bets on the presidential election. on the <1% chance a trump victory emerges they can still survive, so it's worth it to them to pay out punters to free up money flow like you said.

betfair or any other books of large scale can't do that. right now they have $2.1 billion exposed just to the trump-biden match. if they pay out and the results change, they'll be immediately bankrupted---out of business permanently, and likely also facing lawsuits from burnt bettors.

it's all a matter of scale, really.

[Finestream]

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I don't think the result will change after the official count and besides trump has already lost his supporters and allies. Now that everything has been cleared, he need to accept his defeat in a professional manner and step out of the white house like a decent man.

well, in one thing we may agree here, Trump was never a decent man, this shetshow is just part of his play, making the democracy stronger is not something he usually does, it's the opposite.
same with Borsalino in Brazil.

If the official count will favor Trump or a judge decision will say that Trump wins, I guess we need to accept that result but I'm expecting a little chaos here especially coming from the supporters of Biden, God forbid, so I want Biden to be declared as the winner.

and yes, as Saint-loup said seems like freebitcoin will pay out this bet on December 14th.

Glad to hear it, but what about other sites? are they going to do the same?

[Lucasgabd]

At BetMoose, for example, they have paid out some and withheld payments for other bets, in some cases even extending the outcome determination date until January 7th, it depends on the bet's stated decision logic. While annoying, in the eyes of a business it's probably better to annoy some bettors rather than risk that one in a million chance of Trump somehow 'winning', especially with how much money there is on some propositions.

Many russian books already paid to who bet on Biden. And i doubt that they will revise their decision even if Trump will win (this is like 1-2 % i think). Too low risk for such outcome, and books don't want to angry people and want some money flow (some of winner will definitely bet on other games and so on)

Trump probably has even smaller chance to win, more like 0.0000001%
I could bet that all books will pay out Biden wins before mid-February next year.

time will tell.

there's still some free money sitting there on FTX contracts.

[STT]

$2.1 billion

Owch, no insurance can cover that.   The house is the middleman to bets like this and taking a stance that its impossible for one side to win is to take on this bet with the house money so yea thats a fair point.   Obviously they'd only pay out once, not 2.1bn twice over.   They'd lose customers from failing to honor the final result I guess, its so incredibly unlikely that I think some of this delay is also just about retaining funds and utilising the capital which is to the advantage of the house in that they'd normally not have the excuse to keep this amount of capital on their books for this long without it costing anything.

Every time I read about Supreme court rulings recently it reflects the common or laymans (neutral) take that there is no conspiracy or excuse to be taking exceptional measures nor has any real evidence to represent this view been forthcoming.    Its also true there is at least some cases of fraud, without doubt it exists but not in a statistically significant way which is where the layman gets lost I think.   Its just not probable in any way, the 14th Dec should be taken as the nail in the coffin to this argument imo

[batang_bitcoin]

Trump probably has even smaller chance to win, more like 0.0000001%
I could bet that all books will pay out Biden wins before mid-February next year.

time will tell.

there's still some free money sitting there on FTX contracts.

I thought that it's all final and Biden is the clear winner of this election. But with those suits and formality that Trump is filing, this made other bookies to have a delay for the payment of those Biden bettors.
Just a little more patience for those Biden winners, for sure they'll send the payouts as soon as possible. Other bookies have been doing it, they probably want to be sure that there will be no ruckus if something unexpected happens.