US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

[pooya87]

what exactly do you mean by "we"?
bitcoiners don't usually concern themselves with US economy, not to mention that this was expected specifically after the US government (like other govs) started printing a lot of money after the Covid-19 pandemic while all businesses were affected by closed boarders, shutting down for some time,....
there is more bad news coming in my opinion, this is just a start. in fact we may even be seeing a very controlled and manipulated economy right now that is being kept up because of the upcoming election so this administration doesn't end with a terrible ending which could hurt their campaign too.

it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out.

that would be at least another year to a year and a half away from now. and that's the best case scenario. there may never be any working vaccine for this virus. we may have to accept it like common cold with all the mutations.

[buwaytress]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

No worries. Bailouts can help prop these zombies up for a few more terms. Mo money printing puts cash into people's hands. Mo debts bought. More bailouts. Let the zombie economy run my friends, and let that inflation numbers keep racking up then. I personally think the system can last a few more decades but if they're willing to push things out even quicker, maybe I get to see a shit USD in my lifetime;)

[o_e_l_e_o]

I personally think the system can last a few more decades but if they're willing to push things out even quicker, maybe I get to see a shit USD in my lifetime;)

I agree. In the last couple of years as they finally began to claw back some of the ridiculous money printing from the 2008 crisis - it only took them a decade to even get started, if all had gone well it would probably have taken at least another decade to slowly undo it all - I figured USD would be stable enough for the years to come, even with another inevitable crisis or two. But then with this pandemic, we have seen money printing on a scale never before seen. We've printed more dollars in a month than we have in 200 years. The Fed's balanced sheet increased by $3 trillion over 7 years to deal with the fallout from the 2008 crash - with the pandemic, it increased by more than that in 3 months to new record highs, and it isn't over yet.

The deficit is projected to hit almost $4 trillion by the end up year, and the national debt $30 trillion. This is completely non sustainable. I never had much faith in USD, but I always figured it would outlast me. Now, I'm not so sure.

[beerlover]

Stimulus package doesn't have to be covered by money printing if there was proper taxing in federal level, when companies pay taxes to states and states do not do the thing they have to and companies do not pay federal taxes just because they pay state taxes, that means when federal government makes something they lack the funding for it.

Simple solution without hurting anyone would be to give federal government fair share of the taxes collected as well, and make sure that the richer someone gets the more you charge them, not the same percentage. Which will create enough income for the government to actually be able to pay people a good amount of money without printing too much, it may still not be enough but it would at least cover a lot of the costs upfront.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Stimulus package doesn't have to be covered by money printing if there was proper taxing in federal level, when companies pay taxes to states and states do not do the thing they have to and companies do not pay federal taxes just because they pay state taxes, that means when federal government makes something they lack the funding for it.

Sure, there are a bunch of massive corporations and rich individuals who avoid taxes, but taxation can not solve this problem. Amazon had a net income last year of $11 billion. 21% corporate income tax would be $2.3 billion. Walmart avoided $2.6 billion of taxes last year. Even if you assume that the top 500 companies in America are all dodging $2 billion in taxes (which is a crazy overestimation) and there are 5,000 wealthy individuals all dodging $200 million in taxes (another overestimation), then that gets you to a total of $2 trillion. Even if you manage to tax them all that much every year from now on, all that would mean is that the debt continues to grow at twice the rate of 5 years ago instead of four times as fast.

We spend too much on things like military and health care, and we borrow too much to fund it. Taxation won't be enough to get us out of this - we need massive systematic reform. But we all know that will never happen because our politicians are all bought and paid for by the companies which are helping to cause this mess. So we opt for the easy option - money printer go brrrrr.

[exstasie]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

Not that huge dump that we all wanted to see, seems like the stocks and crypto market just having it's normal day of selling.

I expected the market to price in the possibility that Trump gets really sick or even dies from the corona virus. Not only would that hand the election to the Democrats (bad for the stock markets) but it would be quite the emotional catalyst for a selloff.

That didn't really happen though. The market either doesn't think Trump is really sick, or otherwise isn't going to price in those possibilities until his health starts looking dire.

I have a feeling it's all a political ploy and he doesn't really have it anyway. If it were any other president, I would never think that. But this is Trump we're talking about.

[buwaytress]

I agree. In the last couple of years as they finally began to claw back some of the ridiculous money printing from the 2008 crisis - it only took them a decade to even get started, if all had gone well it would probably have taken at least another decade to slowly undo it all - I figured USD would be stable enough for the years to come, even with another inevitable crisis or two. But then with this pandemic, we have seen money printing on a scale never before seen. We've printed more dollars in a month than we have in 200 years. The Fed's balanced sheet increased by $3 trillion over 7 years to deal with the fall out from the 2008 crash - with the pandemic, it increased by more than that in 3 months to new record highs, and it isn't over yet.

The deficit is projected to hit almost $4 trillion by the end up year, and the national debt $30 trillion. This is completely non sustainable. I never had much faith in USD, but I always figured it would outlast me. Now, I'm not so sure.

Yeah, and I think a lot of people actually aren't even aware of the sheer audacity and scale of that printing. I stopped even following the numbers after they approved enough printing in a single bill than the entire market cap of Bitcoin. It's gone beyond the definition of ridiculousness now and I'm actually worried for poor Americans who don't realise the biggest rug's being pulled out from underneath them as we speak.

And yeah, like you, I knew the time would come for USD. I never thought at all I'd be entertaining the idea of it happening while I were still alive.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Yeah, and I think a lot of people actually aren't even aware of the sheer audacity and scale of that printing.

I think there's probably a few reasons for that.

Firstly, a lot of people simply don't know it's happening. They don't watch the news, they don't read the news, they don't know it is happening. There was a poll last year which found that 1 in 8 of us didn't know who Mike Pence is. It's safe to say a much larger proportion have no idea about fiscal monetary policy.

Secondly, many do know but don't understand the ramifications, or maybe don't care. It has no immediate effect on them personally, or if anything, it has a positive effect as they get their stimulus check. Insert that old Henry Ford quote about people revolting if they actually understood banking.

And at this point, the numbers are almost impossible to comprehend. A million dollars is more money that a lot of people will see in their entire lives. Once you start talking about billions of dollars, it just becomes some unspecific, vague large number. Once you get on to trillions of dollars, it is meaningless to most people.

[buwaytress]

I think there's probably a few reasons for that.

Firstly, a lot of people simply don't know it's happening. They don't watch the news, they don't read the news, they don't know it is happening. There was a poll last year which found that 1 in 8 of us didn't know who Mike Pence is. It's safe to say a much larger proportion have no idea about fiscal monetary policy.

Secondly, many do know but don't understand the ramifications, or maybe don't care. It has no immediate effect on them personally, or if anything, it has a positive effect as they get their stimulus check. Insert that old Henry Ford quote about people revolting if they actually understood banking.

And at this point, the numbers are almost impossible to comprehend. A million dollars is more money that a lot of people will see in their entire lives. Once you start talking about billions of dollars, it just becomes some unspecific, vague large number. Once you get on to trillions of dollars, it is meaningless to most people.

Aye. I've tried to politely not ask a couple of Americans I know directly. They're definitely spending their covid cash quite freely, and don't seem to be worried as usual about savings, or jobs. They seem aware it's not a good thing what's happening with their US dollar, but there does seem to be some kind of misplaced trust in the system that it'll all be fine, and as you say, millions to trillions just becomes a meaningless blur for them in the end.

So different from the Asian mentality where we always suspect we're going to get fcked down the line by our government! I suppose I don't know enough Americans who're like me: have a family to support. Could be the difference.

[justdimin]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

The only way if the markets skyrocket would be to have a vaccination that prevents you from getting sick, or even if you are infected it is not more than a common flu and the infection rate drops a ton as well. Without that, we still have a problem in our hands which means we are not going to suddenly see recovery at all, specially not charging upwards.

However, every nation is spending countless amount of man hours and money into figuring this out, so I am sure soon enough someone will come up with a vaccination that is readily available for everyone in the world.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said

"I don't take responsibility at all"

, as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

[STT]

The Pandemic is not nearly as lethal as the full range of possibilities but action is taken to prevent needless deaths.   Natural deflationary events are not a maybe but certain every year, this particular year we got something which can effect everybody to an an unknown extent.
    The FED is certain to fail in their continual quest to inflate and reduce debt load for that reason, natural effects are bigger then any entity and ultimately monetary policy is quite a blunt instrument that cant counter perfectly in balance.   The illusion of control is dangerous

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

The US economy is certain to recover, it has too many positives and reasons for good trade but politics and distortion from a central entity like we have ongoing is not one of those positives.   Its likely we do need to clear negatives and bad debt before a good recovery can occur.   An economy where 50% of GDP can be attributed to government is going to pull back alot at its worst when that excessive debt spiral exits.

[ultrloa]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

[usekevin]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

Now US government speeding up of their economy flow.Now the economy was started all over the world.As we know,USD is the important one of the international trading.So the demand of USD is going to increase tremendously.We can't stop the economy of US anymore.Now in many country,the impact of COVID19 reduced.

[Juggy777]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

Now US government speeding up of their economy flow.Now the economy was started all over the world.As we know,USD is the important one of the international trading.So the demand of USD is going to increase tremendously.We can't stop the economy of US anymore.Now in many country,the impact of COVID19 reduced.

@usekevin after quiet a while there’s some good news in relation to the US economy, as employment rates have gone up for the first time since the pandemic began. However many economists are yet weary about it’s growth, but some also feel that it can recover in 2021, and I too am personally hoping that the US economy improves in 2021 only, otherwise many people may permanently lose their jobs, and that’ll not be good for the US economy in the long run.

Source:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-service-economy-grows-again-in-september-ism-finds-and-employment-turns-positive-for-first-time-in-7-months-2020-10-05

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-growing-less-optimistic-about-outlook-for-u-s-economy-11601874520

[lixer]

I am not really shocked why he didn't get proper precautions, his voters are republicans and I am not saying that all republicans are against mask because they are not, some republicans are definitely supporting masks, but all the people who are against masks are republicans, that is a fact, there is only a few democrats who are against it, almost all maskless people are republicans. Which means if Trump really rallied his people around anti-mask that means he could have gotten away with more votes.

That is why he mocked Joe Biden for wearing a mask when in fact dude was infected with corona himself, it was Trump who should have wore "biggest mask he has ever seen" so that he could have stayed healthy, now he is getting world's best care while still thanking god and ignoring scientists who helps him.

[Spaffin]

It seems to me that due to the fact that Trump fell ill with the coronavirus, the US economy will go into manual control and this situation can be used to make Donald Trump lose his support and lose the election. I believe that there are a lot of interested people in this, especially after accusations began to be confirmed that it was Russia that had a very strong influence on the presidential elections of the first cadence.

[stompix]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

Why not?
For example, I am one of the people who still believe the economy will go up in the second half of the year, it's pretty obvious it will do, of course, it will still be well below 2019 but it's clear it has nowhere to go rather than up, do you think it will go again down by 30%? How would that be even possible, a complete shutdown of everything?

It's pretty normal and obvious, look at France for example:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/france-economy-rebounds-in-q3-bank-of-france-1029661615

The French economy rebounded in the third quarter after posting a record contraction due to the lockdown in the second quarter, a report from the Bank of France showed Thursday. According to central bank estimate, gross domestic product expanded 16 percent sequentially in the third quarter, following a sharp 13.8 percent decline in the second quarter. The estimate for the third quarter was left unrevised.

For the US we still only have forecast but:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378106-u-s-q3-gdp-expected-to-rise-sharply-q4-outlook-dims

The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Oct. 29 is projected to report that Q3 GDP rose 20.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), based on the median nowcast.

So bottom line, there will be a charge, not to match the drop in the first semester but there are serious signs of recovery.

[atjiat]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

Why not?
For example, I am one of the people who still believe the economy will go up in the second half of the year, it's pretty obvious it will do, of course, it will still be well below 2019 but it's clear it has nowhere to go rather than up, do you think it will go again down by 30%? How would that be even possible, a complete shutdown of everything?

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic. Today, incidence rates have begun to rise again in the United States of America, as well as in the European Union, not to mention Central Europe and Eastern Europe. In addition, given the autumn and upcoming winter period, pneumonia and other seasonal illnesses, they will only aggravate the situation with the coronavirus and it will be very good if the government finds an opportunity to at least keep economic indicators at the current level so that there is no further decline. But we will be able to get rid of the problem after at least 2024, when the working part of the world's population will have the opportunity to receive a vaccine against the virus. It is such a long period that is needed to prevent the spread of the virus, since first of all, the vaccine must be received by health workers and the service sector in each country.

[bitgolden]

I highly believe that if Biden getting elected would have a far superior impact on economy than people think it will. Think about it, Trump is a republican and they love big corporations and you know that very well, everyone knows that, hell Biden loves big corporations as well but at least he has some part of his party that hates big corporations that Biden has to keep happy, that is why even though he loves them, at rare times he would have to compromise to keep people happy.

Aside from that big corporations would want financial system to be intact and would want banks to be super rich and continue to be super rich, trump would oblige and do that, maybe Biden could do something not so awesome about it, which means bitcoin could be impacted a lot better under Biden presidency.