US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

[Juggy777]

According to various news report US economy slumped down to 31.4% in Q2, and even if it begins to revive in the last quarter it won’t be enough because it’ll continue to shrink in 2020. It’s also pertinent to note that it’ll the first time, that the economy will be shrinking since the Great Recession.

Further the experts feel that the economy may tumble down once again if there’s no stimulus package announced or covid  threatens to disrupt normal life in USA once again.

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

Source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/9/30/us-gdp-plunged-31-4-in-spring-largest-drop-in-countrys-history

[1714916667]

1714916667

[exstasie]

Further the experts feel that the economy may tumble down once again if there’s no stimulus package announced or covid  threatens to disrupt normal life in USA once again.

Trump can solve that pretty easily by.....announcing another stimulus package. It can even be funded by the Fed minting money, with no need to add to the deficit. In the age of "money printer go brrrrr" is any of this a real problem? It wasn't when the Fed and Congress rescued the market in March.

I'm saying this sort of tongue in cheek, but it's also reality now.

[dothebeats]

Trump and his admin would surely eye on a stimulus package before the elections to gain some vote on their side. It's not only the stimulus package that needs to be done in order to turn the economy a little bit on the upside as there are far more problems that stemmed from the lackluster performance of the US economy due to COVID-19. It's one way to do it, but the market will tank down anyways as soon as the package is already exhausted by the citizens.

In the age of "money printer go brrrrr" is any of this a real problem? It wasn't when the Fed and Congress rescued the market in March.

I'm saying this sort of tongue in cheek, but it's also reality now.

Yup. They'd just make those printers work 24/7 in order to 'save' the ailing economy. What could go wrong?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Tanking fiat currencies could be seen as a positive for bitcoin. Large corporations, hedge funds & institutions aren’t just going to sit there & watch their capital sink in price. They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

[buwaytress]

This is precisely the sort of data I was saying was coming -- so actually I'm not sure anyone who was seeing thing happening this year would be hoping for an upwards charge. It's impossible that the deep crash wasn't coming, all Trump and the Fed were able to hope for was to "soften" the blow and delay the inevitable.

Got to say 31% wasn't even new, in fact, confirmed the predictions made last quarter. October 29 official data, man, it's going to be wild.

Definitely turning on the printers now. No going back.

[stompix]

US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

How can you put that title when the article you linked to says:

US economy plunged 31.4 percent in Q2, big bounce back expected

Economists believe the economy will expand at an annual rate of 30 percent in the current quarter as businesses have reopened and millions of people have gone back to work. That would shatter the old record for a quarterly GDP increase, a 16.7 percent surge in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman was president.

Everything in that article says the same, a big drop, and a big bounce, not reaching the same level as the previous year but only a 3-4% difference, this will be nothing compared to the doom and gloom that we're hearing prophecied back in April and May.

[mk4]

They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

Not an expert economist in any way whatsoever, but we can probably assume why the stock markets(at most) are pretty overvalued right now. And since bitcoin has been really closely following the S&P500, I think it would take more than that to grow bitcoin's price in a way that isn't just going to mirror the S&P500.

[el kaka22]

Depends on who becomes the president, in a month we are going to have one of the biggest decisions USA will make, and that is going to change a lot of stuff as well.

If Joe Biden wins he is a centrist who will work with companies but also will try to help regular people as well like a leftist, so he will not hurt either side, but if Trump stays president not only economy will go worse it will also kill a lot more people as well, until vaccination is found Trump will continue to let people die and that is why USA is the nation with the biggest dead number.

Of course there are Trump fans who will find a way to defend him, otherwise he wouldn't even be a candidate, there are tons who like him and even after all this in the past 4 years they have to defend him, but just because some people like him doesn't mean he is the right person for the job.

[Torque]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

[hugeblack]

The economic effects of COVID-19 have become more than a help for a propaganda campaign for running for the presidency. Rather, it is an economic problem that requires practical solutions in the long term.
Therefore, we will not notice this effect until two or three years later, which is a period beyond the current elections, and some may blame the Trump administration for acting towards the crisis, but it is a truly global crisis.

[Febo]

It’s also pertinent to note that it’ll the first time, that the economy will be shrinking since the Great Recession.

4% will be almost double of 2008 recession and the 2008 recession was the biggest one since 1961. Probably ( i dont have the exact numbers) only behind 1946 and 1932 recession.

[STT]

This should probably go under the economics tab though arguably USD effects everything in speculation

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and the who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

I wouldnt state it to that extreme but certainly that idea is in motion because inflation is not properly accounted for and that matters alot because growth stated is not true and in alot of cases we are negative vs just purely nominal gains from greater amounts of dollars in circulation.   Therein lies the problem as dollar has a strange circulation and with so much retained debt and QE using this debt for new issuance and retention by FED and various government pension funds ie. a one sided centralized priced market.  We wont see circulation properly for years out however the average term of US treasury debt is below 4 years I believe which means interest rates could change rapidly if a free market were in play.  Thats not the case now, we are not a capitalist system.

The reason that all plays into BTC speculation is the weakness of USD relates to perceptions maybe more then fundamentals and this idea of false narrative and unaccounted inflation is not currently commonly held, if that should happen it could change the world and alter USD from the main basis of the global reserve system; vs BTC that matters.  Its very hard to judge and near term we have the election and change of guard possibly; my take is that alters nothing fiscally but perceptions it will.

[samcrypto]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and the who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

The presidential election is just another hype for their own economy thinking that they can easily bounce back after the result of this election, well in fact they can really rise again but considering the damages of the pandemic to every economy, it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out. We are hoping for good economy again so we can go back to our normal lives, let’s just stay healthy for now and help the government to flatten the curve and the economy will rise itself in time.

[exstasie]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

Trump is good on spinning everything, so this might be his new battle-cry come national election. He will be proud to tell the Americans that he will turn the economy around after the looming financial crisis brought up by the pandemic. So it can work on his way, and I'm sure there are voters that are going to blindly trust on his promises again. And now that he is a victim of Covid-19, he can used this to his advantage.

[o_e_l_e_o]

it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out.

A working vaccine will not be a holy grail. There are too many unknowns at the moment, not least of which being how long will it be before a vaccine is ready to be mass produced. How effective will it be? Will we need top up doses? How quickly can it be produced and distributed? Do we have enough raw materials, enough labs, enough equipment, enough trained people? Will the virus evolve around it? How many idiots will refuse the vaccine because it is actually a government sterilization program in disguise or some other complete nonsense? It's likely going to be in to 2022 before we have a mass vaccination program. Take a look at the following graph: https://i.imgur.com/DUsp6nh.jpg

We've had a lockdown, the economy has taken a hit, in some places the lockdown is being eased, and in places it isn't people are getting so bored of it that they are disobeying the rules, and positive COVID cases are ramping up again.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the economy takes several more hits over the coming months. It is a long way away from a recovery.

And now that he is a victim of Covid-19, he can used this to his advantage.

Do we trust a single word that comes out of Trump's mouth or comes from his campaign? I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't have it at all, but in a week or two can say he has "recovered" and the virus is only mild. Plays perfectly to his base of morons who don't even think the virus is real/dangerous. Or maybe he'll use it to push some other quack treatment like injecting disinfectant.

[Fundamentals Of]

If it is the economy that Trump is banking on to gather his winning votes, I think he should just forget it and focus on something else. Nobody would be rooting for him if his argument is the US economy. The economy of the country is under threat. The pandemic came and it made everything a lot worse.

Perhaps he should just focus on something else which might convince the voters that he is still the best man to hold the highest office of the country. He could probably be proud of his brave pronouncements against the growing Chinese power or his stand against raising tariff to other countries doing business with the US.

[Poker Player]

They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

Not an expert economist in any way whatsoever, but we can probably assume why the stock markets(at most) are pretty overvalued right now. And since bitcoin has been really closely following the S&P500, I think it would take more than that to grow bitcoin's price in a way that isn't just going to mirror the S&P500.

This. I've seen LFC_Bitcoin in the Wall Observer thead saying the same. He is pretty confident but I'm not so sure about that and even started a thread about it: Are we biased?

I would like that what LFC_Bitcoin says happened but that has been said for many years, and for the moment bitcoin price is somewhat linked to the US stock market performance.

[SquallLeonhart]

2008 wasn't recovered in one day, in order for the world to get back to what it was it took almost 4 years to be good again, some people look at the stock market prices and say that it recovered better but I can tell you that regular people felt that they are back on track 4 years later in 2012, obviously this will not be the same this time around because that one was human made regular economy crisis that could be solved with financial tricks but this one is pandemic and it is different so it could take longer to recover, or there could be some stuff that is permanently damaged as well, we really don't know and we won't until we see it happen.

But, nobody in the whole world expected the economy to recover by now, that is impossible after such a huge hit to economy.

[Baofeng]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

Not that huge dump that we all wanted to see, seems like the stocks and crypto market just having it's normal day of selling. And to be fair though, whoever get to be the next US President will have his hands full because of the effects of the pandemic. So it might take years to really see the US recovering and so the rest of the world. And I don't think that Trump will get the votes specially if he uses 'economy' as one of his platform for reelection. US voters should be smarter now.