US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

[Juggy777]

According to various news report US economy slumped down to 31.4% in Q2, and even if it begins to revive in the last quarter it won’t be enough because it’ll continue to shrink in 2020. It’s also pertinent to note that it’ll the first time, that the economy will be shrinking since the Great Recession.

Further the experts feel that the economy may tumble down once again if there’s no stimulus package announced or covid  threatens to disrupt normal life in USA once again.

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

Source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/9/30/us-gdp-plunged-31-4-in-spring-largest-drop-in-countrys-history

[exstasie]

Further the experts feel that the economy may tumble down once again if there’s no stimulus package announced or covid  threatens to disrupt normal life in USA once again.

Trump can solve that pretty easily by.....announcing another stimulus package. It can even be funded by the Fed minting money, with no need to add to the deficit. In the age of "money printer go brrrrr" is any of this a real problem? It wasn't when the Fed and Congress rescued the market in March.

I'm saying this sort of tongue in cheek, but it's also reality now.

[dothebeats]

Trump and his admin would surely eye on a stimulus package before the elections to gain some vote on their side. It's not only the stimulus package that needs to be done in order to turn the economy a little bit on the upside as there are far more problems that stemmed from the lackluster performance of the US economy due to COVID-19. It's one way to do it, but the market will tank down anyways as soon as the package is already exhausted by the citizens.

In the age of "money printer go brrrrr" is any of this a real problem? It wasn't when the Fed and Congress rescued the market in March.

I'm saying this sort of tongue in cheek, but it's also reality now.

Yup. They'd just make those printers work 24/7 in order to 'save' the ailing economy. What could go wrong?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Tanking fiat currencies could be seen as a positive for bitcoin. Large corporations, hedge funds & institutions aren’t just going to sit there & watch their capital sink in price. They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

[buwaytress]

This is precisely the sort of data I was saying was coming -- so actually I'm not sure anyone who was seeing thing happening this year would be hoping for an upwards charge. It's impossible that the deep crash wasn't coming, all Trump and the Fed were able to hope for was to "soften" the blow and delay the inevitable.

Got to say 31% wasn't even new, in fact, confirmed the predictions made last quarter. October 29 official data, man, it's going to be wild.

Definitely turning on the printers now. No going back.

[stompix]

US economy won’t be charging upwards like we had hoped for

How can you put that title when the article you linked to says:

US economy plunged 31.4 percent in Q2, big bounce back expected

Economists believe the economy will expand at an annual rate of 30 percent in the current quarter as businesses have reopened and millions of people have gone back to work. That would shatter the old record for a quarterly GDP increase, a 16.7 percent surge in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman was president.

Everything in that article says the same, a big drop, and a big bounce, not reaching the same level as the previous year but only a 3-4% difference, this will be nothing compared to the doom and gloom that we're hearing prophecied back in April and May.

[mk4]

They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

Not an expert economist in any way whatsoever, but we can probably assume why the stock markets(at most) are pretty overvalued right now. And since bitcoin has been really closely following the S&P500, I think it would take more than that to grow bitcoin's price in a way that isn't just going to mirror the S&P500.

[el kaka22]

Depends on who becomes the president, in a month we are going to have one of the biggest decisions USA will make, and that is going to change a lot of stuff as well.

If Joe Biden wins he is a centrist who will work with companies but also will try to help regular people as well like a leftist, so he will not hurt either side, but if Trump stays president not only economy will go worse it will also kill a lot more people as well, until vaccination is found Trump will continue to let people die and that is why USA is the nation with the biggest dead number.

Of course there are Trump fans who will find a way to defend him, otherwise he wouldn't even be a candidate, there are tons who like him and even after all this in the past 4 years they have to defend him, but just because some people like him doesn't mean he is the right person for the job.

[Torque]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

[hugeblack]

The economic effects of COVID-19 have become more than a help for a propaganda campaign for running for the presidency. Rather, it is an economic problem that requires practical solutions in the long term.
Therefore, we will not notice this effect until two or three years later, which is a period beyond the current elections, and some may blame the Trump administration for acting towards the crisis, but it is a truly global crisis.

[Febo]

It’s also pertinent to note that it’ll the first time, that the economy will be shrinking since the Great Recession.

4% will be almost double of 2008 recession and the 2008 recession was the biggest one since 1961. Probably ( i dont have the exact numbers) only behind 1946 and 1932 recession.

[STT]

This should probably go under the economics tab though arguably USD effects everything in speculation

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and the who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

I wouldnt state it to that extreme but certainly that idea is in motion because inflation is not properly accounted for and that matters alot because growth stated is not true and in alot of cases we are negative vs just purely nominal gains from greater amounts of dollars in circulation.   Therein lies the problem as dollar has a strange circulation and with so much retained debt and QE using this debt for new issuance and retention by FED and various government pension funds ie. a one sided centralized priced market.  We wont see circulation properly for years out however the average term of US treasury debt is below 4 years I believe which means interest rates could change rapidly if a free market were in play.  Thats not the case now, we are not a capitalist system.

The reason that all plays into BTC speculation is the weakness of USD relates to perceptions maybe more then fundamentals and this idea of false narrative and unaccounted inflation is not currently commonly held, if that should happen it could change the world and alter USD from the main basis of the global reserve system; vs BTC that matters.  Its very hard to judge and near term we have the election and change of guard possibly; my take is that alters nothing fiscally but perceptions it will.

[samcrypto]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and the who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

The presidential election is just another hype for their own economy thinking that they can easily bounce back after the result of this election, well in fact they can really rise again but considering the damages of the pandemic to every economy, it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out. We are hoping for good economy again so we can go back to our normal lives, let’s just stay healthy for now and help the government to flatten the curve and the economy will rise itself in time.

[exstasie]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

Trump is good on spinning everything, so this might be his new battle-cry come national election. He will be proud to tell the Americans that he will turn the economy around after the looming financial crisis brought up by the pandemic. So it can work on his way, and I'm sure there are voters that are going to blindly trust on his promises again. And now that he is a victim of Covid-19, he can used this to his advantage.

[o_e_l_e_o]

it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out.

A working vaccine will not be a holy grail. There are too many unknowns at the moment, not least of which being how long will it be before a vaccine is ready to be mass produced. How effective will it be? Will we need top up doses? How quickly can it be produced and distributed? Do we have enough raw materials, enough labs, enough equipment, enough trained people? Will the virus evolve around it? How many idiots will refuse the vaccine because it is actually a government sterilization program in disguise or some other complete nonsense? It's likely going to be in to 2022 before we have a mass vaccination program. Take a look at the following graph: https://i.imgur.com/DUsp6nh.jpg

We've had a lockdown, the economy has taken a hit, in some places the lockdown is being eased, and in places it isn't people are getting so bored of it that they are disobeying the rules, and positive COVID cases are ramping up again.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the economy takes several more hits over the coming months. It is a long way away from a recovery.

And now that he is a victim of Covid-19, he can used this to his advantage.

Do we trust a single word that comes out of Trump's mouth or comes from his campaign? I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't have it at all, but in a week or two can say he has "recovered" and the virus is only mild. Plays perfectly to his base of morons who don't even think the virus is real/dangerous. Or maybe he'll use it to push some other quack treatment like injecting disinfectant.

[Fundamentals Of]

If it is the economy that Trump is banking on to gather his winning votes, I think he should just forget it and focus on something else. Nobody would be rooting for him if his argument is the US economy. The economy of the country is under threat. The pandemic came and it made everything a lot worse.

Perhaps he should just focus on something else which might convince the voters that he is still the best man to hold the highest office of the country. He could probably be proud of his brave pronouncements against the growing Chinese power or his stand against raising tariff to other countries doing business with the US.

[Poker Player]

They’re going to be looking for alternatives to traditional investments like stocks, bonds etc. This is where bitcoin comes in, watch this space over the next 12-18 months.

Not an expert economist in any way whatsoever, but we can probably assume why the stock markets(at most) are pretty overvalued right now. And since bitcoin has been really closely following the S&P500, I think it would take more than that to grow bitcoin's price in a way that isn't just going to mirror the S&P500.

This. I've seen LFC_Bitcoin in the Wall Observer thead saying the same. He is pretty confident but I'm not so sure about that and even started a thread about it: Are we biased?

I would like that what LFC_Bitcoin says happened but that has been said for many years, and for the moment bitcoin price is somewhat linked to the US stock market performance.

[SquallLeonhart]

2008 wasn't recovered in one day, in order for the world to get back to what it was it took almost 4 years to be good again, some people look at the stock market prices and say that it recovered better but I can tell you that regular people felt that they are back on track 4 years later in 2012, obviously this will not be the same this time around because that one was human made regular economy crisis that could be solved with financial tricks but this one is pandemic and it is different so it could take longer to recover, or there could be some stuff that is permanently damaged as well, we really don't know and we won't until we see it happen.

But, nobody in the whole world expected the economy to recover by now, that is impossible after such a huge hit to economy.

[Baofeng]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

Not that huge dump that we all wanted to see, seems like the stocks and crypto market just having it's normal day of selling. And to be fair though, whoever get to be the next US President will have his hands full because of the effects of the pandemic. So it might take years to really see the US recovering and so the rest of the world. And I don't think that Trump will get the votes specially if he uses 'economy' as one of his platform for reelection. US voters should be smarter now.

[pooya87]

what exactly do you mean by "we"?
bitcoiners don't usually concern themselves with US economy, not to mention that this was expected specifically after the US government (like other govs) started printing a lot of money after the Covid-19 pandemic while all businesses were affected by closed boarders, shutting down for some time,....
there is more bad news coming in my opinion, this is just a start. in fact we may even be seeing a very controlled and manipulated economy right now that is being kept up because of the upcoming election so this administration doesn't end with a terrible ending which could hurt their campaign too.

it looks like it will take more time or until the vaccine comes out.

that would be at least another year to a year and a half away from now. and that's the best case scenario. there may never be any working vaccine for this virus. we may have to accept it like common cold with all the mutations.

[buwaytress]

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

No worries. Bailouts can help prop these zombies up for a few more terms. Mo money printing puts cash into people's hands. Mo debts bought. More bailouts. Let the zombie economy run my friends, and let that inflation numbers keep racking up then. I personally think the system can last a few more decades but if they're willing to push things out even quicker, maybe I get to see a shit USD in my lifetime;)

[o_e_l_e_o]

I personally think the system can last a few more decades but if they're willing to push things out even quicker, maybe I get to see a shit USD in my lifetime;)

I agree. In the last couple of years as they finally began to claw back some of the ridiculous money printing from the 2008 crisis - it only took them a decade to even get started, if all had gone well it would probably have taken at least another decade to slowly undo it all - I figured USD would be stable enough for the years to come, even with another inevitable crisis or two. But then with this pandemic, we have seen money printing on a scale never before seen. We've printed more dollars in a month than we have in 200 years. The Fed's balanced sheet increased by $3 trillion over 7 years to deal with the fallout from the 2008 crash - with the pandemic, it increased by more than that in 3 months to new record highs, and it isn't over yet.

The deficit is projected to hit almost $4 trillion by the end up year, and the national debt $30 trillion. This is completely non sustainable. I never had much faith in USD, but I always figured it would outlast me. Now, I'm not so sure.

[beerlover]

Stimulus package doesn't have to be covered by money printing if there was proper taxing in federal level, when companies pay taxes to states and states do not do the thing they have to and companies do not pay federal taxes just because they pay state taxes, that means when federal government makes something they lack the funding for it.

Simple solution without hurting anyone would be to give federal government fair share of the taxes collected as well, and make sure that the richer someone gets the more you charge them, not the same percentage. Which will create enough income for the government to actually be able to pay people a good amount of money without printing too much, it may still not be enough but it would at least cover a lot of the costs upfront.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Stimulus package doesn't have to be covered by money printing if there was proper taxing in federal level, when companies pay taxes to states and states do not do the thing they have to and companies do not pay federal taxes just because they pay state taxes, that means when federal government makes something they lack the funding for it.

Sure, there are a bunch of massive corporations and rich individuals who avoid taxes, but taxation can not solve this problem. Amazon had a net income last year of $11 billion. 21% corporate income tax would be $2.3 billion. Walmart avoided $2.6 billion of taxes last year. Even if you assume that the top 500 companies in America are all dodging $2 billion in taxes (which is a crazy overestimation) and there are 5,000 wealthy individuals all dodging $200 million in taxes (another overestimation), then that gets you to a total of $2 trillion. Even if you manage to tax them all that much every year from now on, all that would mean is that the debt continues to grow at twice the rate of 5 years ago instead of four times as fast.

We spend too much on things like military and health care, and we borrow too much to fund it. Taxation won't be enough to get us out of this - we need massive systematic reform. But we all know that will never happen because our politicians are all bought and paid for by the companies which are helping to cause this mess. So we opt for the easy option - money printer go brrrrr.

[exstasie]

......and now Trump has corona virus. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-covid.html

Nice catalyst for a market dump! SPX futures immediately dumped 1.5%, BTC dumped 2%.

Let's see if this catalyzes a larger panic driven move.

Not that huge dump that we all wanted to see, seems like the stocks and crypto market just having it's normal day of selling.

I expected the market to price in the possibility that Trump gets really sick or even dies from the corona virus. Not only would that hand the election to the Democrats (bad for the stock markets) but it would be quite the emotional catalyst for a selloff.

That didn't really happen though. The market either doesn't think Trump is really sick, or otherwise isn't going to price in those possibilities until his health starts looking dire.

I have a feeling it's all a political ploy and he doesn't really have it anyway. If it were any other president, I would never think that. But this is Trump we're talking about.

[buwaytress]

I agree. In the last couple of years as they finally began to claw back some of the ridiculous money printing from the 2008 crisis - it only took them a decade to even get started, if all had gone well it would probably have taken at least another decade to slowly undo it all - I figured USD would be stable enough for the years to come, even with another inevitable crisis or two. But then with this pandemic, we have seen money printing on a scale never before seen. We've printed more dollars in a month than we have in 200 years. The Fed's balanced sheet increased by $3 trillion over 7 years to deal with the fall out from the 2008 crash - with the pandemic, it increased by more than that in 3 months to new record highs, and it isn't over yet.

The deficit is projected to hit almost $4 trillion by the end up year, and the national debt $30 trillion. This is completely non sustainable. I never had much faith in USD, but I always figured it would outlast me. Now, I'm not so sure.

Yeah, and I think a lot of people actually aren't even aware of the sheer audacity and scale of that printing. I stopped even following the numbers after they approved enough printing in a single bill than the entire market cap of Bitcoin. It's gone beyond the definition of ridiculousness now and I'm actually worried for poor Americans who don't realise the biggest rug's being pulled out from underneath them as we speak.

And yeah, like you, I knew the time would come for USD. I never thought at all I'd be entertaining the idea of it happening while I were still alive.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Yeah, and I think a lot of people actually aren't even aware of the sheer audacity and scale of that printing.

I think there's probably a few reasons for that.

Firstly, a lot of people simply don't know it's happening. They don't watch the news, they don't read the news, they don't know it is happening. There was a poll last year which found that 1 in 8 of us didn't know who Mike Pence is. It's safe to say a much larger proportion have no idea about fiscal monetary policy.

Secondly, many do know but don't understand the ramifications, or maybe don't care. It has no immediate effect on them personally, or if anything, it has a positive effect as they get their stimulus check. Insert that old Henry Ford quote about people revolting if they actually understood banking.

And at this point, the numbers are almost impossible to comprehend. A million dollars is more money that a lot of people will see in their entire lives. Once you start talking about billions of dollars, it just becomes some unspecific, vague large number. Once you get on to trillions of dollars, it is meaningless to most people.

[buwaytress]

I think there's probably a few reasons for that.

Firstly, a lot of people simply don't know it's happening. They don't watch the news, they don't read the news, they don't know it is happening. There was a poll last year which found that 1 in 8 of us didn't know who Mike Pence is. It's safe to say a much larger proportion have no idea about fiscal monetary policy.

Secondly, many do know but don't understand the ramifications, or maybe don't care. It has no immediate effect on them personally, or if anything, it has a positive effect as they get their stimulus check. Insert that old Henry Ford quote about people revolting if they actually understood banking.

And at this point, the numbers are almost impossible to comprehend. A million dollars is more money that a lot of people will see in their entire lives. Once you start talking about billions of dollars, it just becomes some unspecific, vague large number. Once you get on to trillions of dollars, it is meaningless to most people.

Aye. I've tried to politely not ask a couple of Americans I know directly. They're definitely spending their covid cash quite freely, and don't seem to be worried as usual about savings, or jobs. They seem aware it's not a good thing what's happening with their US dollar, but there does seem to be some kind of misplaced trust in the system that it'll all be fine, and as you say, millions to trillions just becomes a meaningless blur for them in the end.

So different from the Asian mentality where we always suspect we're going to get fcked down the line by our government! I suppose I don't know enough Americans who're like me: have a family to support. Could be the difference.

[justdimin]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

The only way if the markets skyrocket would be to have a vaccination that prevents you from getting sick, or even if you are infected it is not more than a common flu and the infection rate drops a ton as well. Without that, we still have a problem in our hands which means we are not going to suddenly see recovery at all, specially not charging upwards.

However, every nation is spending countless amount of man hours and money into figuring this out, so I am sure soon enough someone will come up with a vaccination that is readily available for everyone in the world.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said

"I don't take responsibility at all"

, as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

[STT]

The Pandemic is not nearly as lethal as the full range of possibilities but action is taken to prevent needless deaths.   Natural deflationary events are not a maybe but certain every year, this particular year we got something which can effect everybody to an an unknown extent.
    The FED is certain to fail in their continual quest to inflate and reduce debt load for that reason, natural effects are bigger then any entity and ultimately monetary policy is quite a blunt instrument that cant counter perfectly in balance.   The illusion of control is dangerous

There is a reason why the U.S. economy will never recover, and who the president is at any moment doesn't really matter...

The US economy is certain to recover, it has too many positives and reasons for good trade but politics and distortion from a central entity like we have ongoing is not one of those positives.   Its likely we do need to clear negatives and bad debt before a good recovery can occur.   An economy where 50% of GDP can be attributed to government is going to pull back alot at its worst when that excessive debt spiral exits.

[ultrloa]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

[usekevin]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

Now US government speeding up of their economy flow.Now the economy was started all over the world.As we know,USD is the important one of the international trading.So the demand of USD is going to increase tremendously.We can't stop the economy of US anymore.Now in many country,the impact of COVID19 reduced.

[Juggy777]

The main reason for this is that Trump has failed to take appropriate action in the early stages of Corona. His irresponsible remarks about Corona are proof of that.
Where the whole world has been mute by the corona outbreak and all the people of China were dying, Trump has happily said "I don't take responsibility at all", as if the corona would not be infected in the USA. Then when the corona spread widely in the USA Trump said "Corona test is Needless"
This extreme catastrophe of the USA economic situation is due to his ignorance about COVID-19.

He didn't take it seriously that's why the US economy suffer so much by now and for him to have Covid right now for sure the economy will scramble since for sure many will doubt about the situation, for sure they will get a hard time to recover back. But I really pray forward for his speedy recovery since once he's back for sure the economical status of US will slowly recovers back.

Now US government speeding up of their economy flow.Now the economy was started all over the world.As we know,USD is the important one of the international trading.So the demand of USD is going to increase tremendously.We can't stop the economy of US anymore.Now in many country,the impact of COVID19 reduced.

@usekevin after quiet a while there’s some good news in relation to the US economy, as employment rates have gone up for the first time since the pandemic began. However many economists are yet weary about it’s growth, but some also feel that it can recover in 2021, and I too am personally hoping that the US economy improves in 2021 only, otherwise many people may permanently lose their jobs, and that’ll not be good for the US economy in the long run.

Source:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-service-economy-grows-again-in-september-ism-finds-and-employment-turns-positive-for-first-time-in-7-months-2020-10-05

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-growing-less-optimistic-about-outlook-for-u-s-economy-11601874520

[lixer]

I am not really shocked why he didn't get proper precautions, his voters are republicans and I am not saying that all republicans are against mask because they are not, some republicans are definitely supporting masks, but all the people who are against masks are republicans, that is a fact, there is only a few democrats who are against it, almost all maskless people are republicans. Which means if Trump really rallied his people around anti-mask that means he could have gotten away with more votes.

That is why he mocked Joe Biden for wearing a mask when in fact dude was infected with corona himself, it was Trump who should have wore "biggest mask he has ever seen" so that he could have stayed healthy, now he is getting world's best care while still thanking god and ignoring scientists who helps him.

[Spaffin]

It seems to me that due to the fact that Trump fell ill with the coronavirus, the US economy will go into manual control and this situation can be used to make Donald Trump lose his support and lose the election. I believe that there are a lot of interested people in this, especially after accusations began to be confirmed that it was Russia that had a very strong influence on the presidential elections of the first cadence.

[stompix]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

Why not?
For example, I am one of the people who still believe the economy will go up in the second half of the year, it's pretty obvious it will do, of course, it will still be well below 2019 but it's clear it has nowhere to go rather than up, do you think it will go again down by 30%? How would that be even possible, a complete shutdown of everything?

It's pretty normal and obvious, look at France for example:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/france-economy-rebounds-in-q3-bank-of-france-1029661615

The French economy rebounded in the third quarter after posting a record contraction due to the lockdown in the second quarter, a report from the Bank of France showed Thursday. According to central bank estimate, gross domestic product expanded 16 percent sequentially in the third quarter, following a sharp 13.8 percent decline in the second quarter. The estimate for the third quarter was left unrevised.

For the US we still only have forecast but:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378106-u-s-q3-gdp-expected-to-rise-sharply-q4-outlook-dims

The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Oct. 29 is projected to report that Q3 GDP rose 20.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), based on the median nowcast.

So bottom line, there will be a charge, not to match the drop in the first semester but there are serious signs of recovery.

[atjiat]

I doubt anyone hoped it would charge upwards. We are in a pandemic right now and things are as bad as it ever was, we are talking about President of USA getting infected with his wife and all, so things are really horrible right now for all of USA.

Why not?
For example, I am one of the people who still believe the economy will go up in the second half of the year, it's pretty obvious it will do, of course, it will still be well below 2019 but it's clear it has nowhere to go rather than up, do you think it will go again down by 30%? How would that be even possible, a complete shutdown of everything?

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic. Today, incidence rates have begun to rise again in the United States of America, as well as in the European Union, not to mention Central Europe and Eastern Europe. In addition, given the autumn and upcoming winter period, pneumonia and other seasonal illnesses, they will only aggravate the situation with the coronavirus and it will be very good if the government finds an opportunity to at least keep economic indicators at the current level so that there is no further decline. But we will be able to get rid of the problem after at least 2024, when the working part of the world's population will have the opportunity to receive a vaccine against the virus. It is such a long period that is needed to prevent the spread of the virus, since first of all, the vaccine must be received by health workers and the service sector in each country.

[bitgolden]

I highly believe that if Biden getting elected would have a far superior impact on economy than people think it will. Think about it, Trump is a republican and they love big corporations and you know that very well, everyone knows that, hell Biden loves big corporations as well but at least he has some part of his party that hates big corporations that Biden has to keep happy, that is why even though he loves them, at rare times he would have to compromise to keep people happy.

Aside from that big corporations would want financial system to be intact and would want banks to be super rich and continue to be super rich, trump would oblige and do that, maybe Biden could do something not so awesome about it, which means bitcoin could be impacted a lot better under Biden presidency.

[palle11]

What do you’ll think will the impact of this report be on the US elections, because Trump was counting on economy to help him get the votes, but now it’s almost certain that he can’t count on the economy to convince the voters to vote for him.

I'm not thinking that the economy will be a good consideration for Trump to think that he will win by November. The Americans are not believing that the economy for them has done well in the time of trump. It is the non Americans that are feeling Trump economic policies has done well. We can wait and see the result after the election. The economy will also be judged with the pandemic and I think Trump did all in the fight on covid-19.

[stompix]

~

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic.

Why apologize, it's a discussion forum, people here discuss things and voice their opinion, no need to apologize if you enter a discussion, no need to apologize even if you have a different point of view and you think I'm totally wrong.

That being said, the virus is one thing and the economy is another.
Just because we're experiencing this it doesn't mean the economy will still plunge, after all the slump was caused by the forced shutdown, not by the virus, and if everything opens up tomorrow the economy will start recovering faster, of course..at the cost at more human lives. But at one point it's like going to war, you have to face some consequences no matter what your decision will be.

And things are not that bad anymore:
The number of new businesses in America is booming

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

I'm waiting on the data for Q3, but I'm pretty sure the rebound will happen, it's impossible not to, the shutdown was way worse than what's happening now.

[exstasie]

I highly believe that if Biden getting elected would have a far superior impact on economy than people think it will. Think about it, Trump is a republican and they love big corporations and you know that very well, everyone knows that, hell Biden loves big corporations as well but at least he has some part of his party that hates big corporations that Biden has to keep happy, that is why even though he loves them, at rare times he would have to compromise to keep people happy.

It's not just about loving big corporations. In that sense, the biggest corporations generally support both parties, and they expect handouts from both parties.

But there are policy differences. Tax policy comes to mind in particular. Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

Biden has already said he would raise corporation tax back up to 28% on day one of this presidency, although with the Republicans still controlling the Senate they could block him.

As you say though, the tax cuts were a boon for corporate profitability. They were not a boon for the average worker as was claimed they were going to be. Does anyone remember this document: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Tax%20Reform%20and%20Wages.pdf? Predicted boosts of $4,000 to $9,000 per household, per annum? Never happened. Increase in business investment? Investment actually decreased in 2019, even before COVID hit. By and large, all these tax cuts did was hand more money to billionaire shareholders. The average worker saw zero benefit.

[exstasie]

Trump's tax bill cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. That was a massive boon for corporate profitability across the board. There is some fear that Biden and the Democrats intend to roll back those tax cuts.

Biden has already said he would raise corporation tax back up to 28% on day one of this presidency, although with the Republicans still controlling the Senate they could block him.

As you say though, the tax cuts were a boon for corporate profitability. They were not a boon for the average worker as was claimed they were going to be. Does anyone remember this document: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Tax%20Reform%20and%20Wages.pdf? Predicted boosts of $4,000 to $9,000 per household, per annum? Never happened. Increase in business investment? Investment actually decreased in 2019, even before COVID hit. By and large, all these tax cuts did was hand more money to billionaire shareholders. The average worker saw zero benefit.

As expected. It was just an exercise in trickle-down Reaganomics, which we already know doesn't work. It just makes the rich (including company shareholders, who have greatly benefited in terms of company stock valuations) richer, without really increasing employment, consumer spending, tax revenues, etc. It's amazing that Republicans manage to convince poor conservatives to rally behind these supply-side schemes again and again. I guess that's the tragedy of a two-party system where both options are terrible.

As far as the Senate goes, agreed, but I've been keeping an eye on election data. The chances of Democrats taking control of the Senate this year has risen considerably over the past couple months. Fivethirtyeight is favoring them pretty heavily now.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-13/democrats-need-four-new-senate-seats-polling-looks-good
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

We'll see.....

[Febo]

If we will have 3 waves of covid, that means we will have tipple VVV recovery then    In part of Europe September economy almost reach last years Septembers numbers. October will be again catastrophic since lockdowns started and countries started closing borders and stopping economy.   So far we had March, now October, so last wave should start in May. Unless it will start earlier because of no hot summer weather. 

[FanEagle]

"Fear" for them to roll back? Dude it SHOULD be rolled back, if companies do not pay taxes, either country creates debt or they take it from the poor, thats not going to sustain for a long time, it is impossible to allow people to actually create some sort of loophole where richest of the population keeps paying less and less taxes, how could you manage a whole nation when that is the situation?

So, we should focus on getting those taxes back and even higher. These companies are making tens of billions of dollars worth of profit, there is no point not taking another billion, when you can get extra 100+ billion dollars, you are basically giving every family a whole months electricity bill for free, just to give an example, you can use it for something different obviously. So at the end of the day, rich should pay their fair share as well.

[barbara44]

3rd of November has a lot of senate elections as well, you are not voting just for the president, you are voting for senate seat as well and even though it is not all of them, there is enough of them to change the seat to democrat as well.

Looking at the current situation in the senate races there is really not that much change looking like it could happen, unfortunately senate is distributed equally to states and not population, so fuck with nowhere has similar amount of power and they are more in number of states so they can still outscore democrats to this day even though they are nowhere near close to amount of votes when you look at the total votes cast.

In any case we are looking for close number of senate between two parties and if president does an executive order, republicans will need 2/3 to decline something and they don't have that so Biden can do whatever he wants and republicans will not be able to stop him. Right now democrats can't do what they want because if it comes from house or senate republican majority and republican president can stop it, but when president is democrat that ends.

[Torque]

~

I apologize for interfering with the dialogue, but it seems to me that we cannot hope for an increase in economic performance until we cope with the coronavirus pandemic.

Why apologize, it's a discussion forum, people here discuss things and voice their opinion, no need to apologize if you enter a discussion, no need to apologize even if you have a different point of view and you think I'm totally wrong.

That being said, the virus is one thing and the economy is another.
Just because we're experiencing this it doesn't mean the economy will still plunge, after all the slump was caused by the forced shutdown, not by the virus, and if everything opens up tomorrow the economy will start recovering faster, of course..at the cost at more human lives. But at one point it's like going to war, you have to face some consequences no matter what your decision will be.

And things are not that bad anymore:
The number of new businesses in America is booming

Debt-fueled start up companies running purely in the red on cheap government-loaned, taxpayer debt is not "booming". It's crashing. It's a farce.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

I'm waiting on the data for Q3, but I'm pretty sure the rebound will happen, it's impossible not to, the shutdown was way worse than what's happening now.

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

[Harlot]

"Fear" for them to roll back? Dude it SHOULD be rolled back, if companies do not pay taxes, either country creates debt or they take it from the poor, thats not going to sustain for a long time, it is impossible to allow people to actually create some sort of loophole where richest of the population keeps paying less and less taxes, how could you manage a whole nation when that is the situation?

So, we should focus on getting those taxes back and even higher. These companies are making tens of billions of dollars worth of profit, there is no point not taking another billion, when you can get extra 100+ billion dollars, you are basically giving every family a whole months electricity bill for free, just to give an example, you can use it for something different obviously. So at the end of the day, rich should pay their fair share as well.

Creating a new tax in order to help the people is something really not that effective since it's just taking money away from people just to give is back to them especially if the new kind of tax is directly towards to the regular citizens and not the businesses. If it is towards to the businesses and the pandemic continues to hit then we can expect to have some kind of budget cuts happening from this company just to continue their survival. Taxes isn't really the solution here but how to quickly clean the country from the virus so everyone in the economy could jump start.

[stompix]

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

And you want to run to the hills knowing that people are getting their jobs back?
Yes, I'm applauding and I can't think why a normal person shouldn't be happy about it unless its sole purpose in life is to see other people's lives going to hell.
Yes, a mere 661k people, 661k people with families to feed are getting their jobs back, it could have been more, there needs to be more but the facts stand that the number of people who are employed is growing, the economy will also recover and all the doom and gloom lovers will have to retreat back to their caverns and start praying again for another calamity.

[Torque]

So an average of 1M+ employees per week since March lose their jobs, and you want to applaud some kind of a "recovery" when a mere 661K of them get their job back? Really?

And you want to run to the hills knowing that people are getting their jobs back?
Yes, I'm applauding and I can't think why a normal person shouldn't be happy about it unless its sole purpose in life is to see other people's lives going to hell.
Yes, a mere 661k people, 661k people with families to feed are getting their jobs back, it could have been more, there needs to be more but the facts stand that the number of people who are employed is growing, the economy will also recover and all the doom and gloom lovers will have to retreat back to their caverns and start praying again for another calamity.

661K get their jobs that they lost back, only ~29 million more to go (to get their jobs back, not net new jobs created).

By that point it'll be another 7-8 years from now, just before another "black swan" crash. And another massive layoff in the tens of millions.

Yay recovery.  

[thecodebear]

yeah the economy ain't coming back anytime soon. It'll help to get a change of president to start next year, Trump's insanity and inconsistency is never good for long term economic outlet, not to mention his refusal to do anything to stop covid from laying waste to America. But still, even with an adult leading the nation once again, it'll be years of steady growth until we get back to a good economy. Millions of Americans will continue barely getting by on unemployment insurance and whatever part time stuff they can pick up for years to come as jobs slowly return. Plenty of retail places won't come back and those jobs are gone forever.


Inflation will be high from here on out, and the rich will start throwing money at bitcoin since stocks are already way inflated. Us Bitcoin rich will only get richer!

[Juggy777]

yeah the economy ain't coming back anytime soon. It'll help to get a change of president to start next year, Trump's insanity and inconsistency is never good for long term economic outlet, not to mention his refusal to do anything to stop covid from laying waste to America. But still, even with an adult leading the nation once again, it'll be years of steady growth until we get back to a good economy. Millions of Americans will continue barely getting by on unemployment insurance and whatever part time stuff they can pick up for years to come as jobs slowly return. Plenty of retail places won't come back and those jobs are gone forever.


Inflation will be high from here on out, and the rich will start throwing money at bitcoin since stocks are already way inflated. Us Bitcoin rich will only get richer!

@thecodebear yea even the analysts agree that now the US economy won’t rebound in 2020, and we will all have to wait till 2021 to see some upward movements in the economy. Furthermore currently US is more occupied with election results rather than saving their economy, and the only way to boost US economy in 2020 would be is by passing the stimulus package, but currently it looks like that package won’t be passed.

This has been a rotten year, and any chance of it ending on a high note has faded. The Covid-19 pandemic is intensifying, rancor over the US presidential election is mounting, and lawmakers haven't come to terms on another fiscal rescue package to shore up the fragile economy.

It is difficult to see how the economy will be able to gain any traction until next year when the pandemic and election are hopefully in the history books.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/perspectives/us-economy-pandemic-recovery/index.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-im-ready-to-sign-a-big-beautiful-stimulus-but-it-doesnt-look-like-many-americans-are-counting-on-it-2020-10-16

[stompix]

~

661K get their jobs that they lost back, only ~29 million more to go (to get their jobs back, not net new jobs created).

Can you please tell me from where did you get the 29 million that need to get their job back?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, following larger gains in the prior 4 months. In September, nonfarm employment was below its February level by 10.7 million, or 7.0 percent.

The total number of unemployed people was 23 million at its peak, now it's just 12,5 million and anyhow it was already 5 million before the pandemic.
So, seems like you're overexaggerating things by quite a margin.

[el kaka22]

^There are 63 million people who have applied to unemployment during the pandemic, this is a true stat that came from the government itself that Trump runs, so it is not a secret hidden fact, it is something republicans themselves literally said.

Secondly the meaning of "unemployed" is not always not having a job, it also means that their job is not paying them the salary as well, so let's say you work at a place and there is pandemic and the company refuses to pay you your salary because of it, that person does apply to unemployment as well which will result with you still having a job and not look like unemployed but you are also applying for unemployment since you are not taking home any salary. These are all things that got record breaking high during this period.

[Torque]

Here's the biggest proof yet that we are in a Depression.

Coca Cola Corp, one of the biggest worldwide global corporations that are almost recession/depression proof in terms of sales revenue, are slashing their product offerings in half.

Yes, by 50%.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coke-bids-adieu-200-drink-185853296.html

[stompix]

Yeah right, the number of beverages in Coca-Cola portfolio is a clear indicator, forget about numbers back by something, cherry-picking news, and throwing around numbers you refuse to back with sources should be definitive proof.

Back to real news, tomorrow is the day of the Q3 announcements and all the doom preaches are going to either run for the hills or again try to twist numbers:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Chicago Fed, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs all estimate it will be between 30% and 35%. Even if the real number is substantially lower, it will still be historic. Such an explosion of economic activity in the world’s largest economy is unprecedented in the history of GDP calculations, which goes back to the Great Depression.

Of course, we won't be back to pre-pandemic levels but, the pandemic is not yet over, and still, things look far better, another fall of the global order we have avoided

[Juggy777]

Back to real news, tomorrow is the day of the Q3 announcements and all the doom preaches are going to either run for the hills or again try to twist numbers:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Chicago Fed, the Conference Board, and Goldman Sachs all estimate it will be between 30% and 35%. Even if the real number is substantially lower, it will still be historic. Such an explosion of economic activity in the world’s largest economy is unprecedented in the history of GDP calculations, which goes back to the Great Depression.

Of course, we won't be back to pre-pandemic levels but, the pandemic is not yet over, and still, things look far better, another fall of the global order we have avoided

@stompix it seems that US economy has rebounded in the Q3 by 33.1%, and this is excellent news for US citizens because now they have some hope of reaching the pre pandemic levels in 2021.

Further It’s also pertinent to note that US economy is not out of the danger zone just yet, but a stable government plus a stimulus package can lead the way for their recovery in 2021.

Lastly as the experts have rightly said that the if the US election results are delayed, and there’s no stimulus package in place then it’s quiet possible that the US economy will once again tank, hence let’s hope that these scenarios can be avoided.

Source:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/29/us-economy-turns-in-record-q3-growth-but-crisis-is-not-over

[stompix]

@stompix it seems that US economy has rebounded in the Q3 by 33.1%, and this is excellent news for US citizens because now they have some hope of reaching the pre pandemic levels in 2021.

This would be the time for me to brag with I've told you so...
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected

But it was quite obvious, you had a period of shutting down business voluntarily, people confined in their homes, and most important a thing I've realized by reading an article which was pretty obvious and I feel ashamed I have thought about it myself, lots of people who stayed at home earned just as much as they did previously but didn't spend the same amount and now that the measures have somewhat been relaxed have been free to spend more than usual.

Personal consumption increased 40.7%, while gross private domestic investment surged 83% amid a 59.3% increase on the residential side.

An at least 25% bounce was a pretty sure bet, I was thinking it would be somewhere below 30% but seems that even I was more pessimistic than it was necessary.

Further It’s also pertinent to note that US economy is not out of the danger zone just yet, but a stable government plus a stimulus package can lead the way for their recovery in 2021.

That is a big unknown, it depends on a lot of things, a cure, a second wave, a new president, a new president by how many votes, and even on what is happening in the rest of the world, what if the EU shuts down...Winter is coming!!!!

[Torque]

@stompix it seems that US economy has rebounded in the Q3 by 33.1%, and this is excellent news for US citizens because now they have some hope of reaching the pre pandemic levels in 2021.

This would be the time for me to brag with I've told you so...
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected

Fake news.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/10/29/no-gdp-didnt-jump-33-1-in-q3-but-7-4-after-plunging-9-in-q2-time-to-kill-annualized-growth-rates-stimulus-fattened-imports-were-a-huge-drag-on-gdp/

That “33.1%” reflected the jump in Q3 from Q2 but roughly multiplied by 4 to produce a theoretical figure of what GDP for the whole year would be if it kept surging four quarters in a row like this. And that’s not going to happen, just like the plunge in Q2 wasn’t actually “31.4%” and wasn’t repeated four quarters in a row. Deeper down in its GDP report this morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported “not annualized” figures. And not annualized, GDP jumped by a record of 7.4% from Q2, after the record 9.0% plunge in Q2 from Q1.

Also here, have a rant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuAxgJZIQhg

[STT]

Sounds like confusion over statistics which explains most of economic and FED policy decisions, either way the trend is more important then any particular data point.    It should be this way, the shut down of course was artificial so alot or most business should reappear.   Bigger problem is the continued threat and requirement for adapted operation.    I'm personally glad finally distance working may become a viable choice, the inefficiency of queues of traffic leading into city centres twice a day never made sense to me in an era of technology alternatives.    Its not impossible we gain overall from recognising better ways to operate, that'd be great GDP growth to see.

Here's the biggest proof yet that we are in a Depression.

Coca Cola Corp,

I generally agree with that one, though not Coke alone but many core businesses.   The big clue and I should have taken more from it is the continual weakness in oil demand, this is not this year in scope but for a decade or more.  World growth is lacking imo, in context of the largest countries coming to a point where energy usage might occur and hopefully cleanly but the energy demand should be so much greater.  Its not there because some growth is false, just misreported inflationary effects.

[Vaskiy]

More companies have been suffering the worst days of business. Everyone are much concerned about the president election scheduled for this month. Once after the election there'll be sudden boost in the economy, particularly with the stocks. This growth is temporary and the same might be taken forward based on the money flow created by the forming government.

[davinchi]

Financial data could be picked and chose anyway you want, I can find data right now to make it look like USA economy will be so great that we are going to use golds to wipe but I could also find data that would show that we are going to starve and be like Venezuela in a year as well, it all depends on the perspective where you are looking at and the real data on how it should be seen is not fun, not just because it is bad but whenever it is real it is usually not that interesting so it doesn't make it to be a good news, who would like to read a whole page article about "1% growth per year" that is not fun, but how about "recovered 33% in 3 months!!!" that is definitely more read worthy so newspapers run with that.

At the end of the day 2020 was a HORRIBLE economical year and yes it may have recovered a tiny bit but there is still tons of ground to cover just to be on pre-pandemic levels let alone be bigger.

[yhiaali3]

Well, of course, the decline of the American economy will have a great impact on the American elections, every president who wants to be re-elected for a second time must make great economic achievements, but it seems that Trump has failed to stimulate the American economy and the Covid-19 virus has helped to worsen the economic situation, this is an addition To the other big negatives of Trump and his controversial statements, which led to a significant decline in his popularity.

[Fortify]

The virus has been around for a while now and I have a feeling that the second wave will be bad, but hopefully things will start to get better afterwards. The current lack of leadership in America is quite frightening, so it'll be interesting to see what happens on the 4th of November and maybe that can be a turning point. I think we have yet to see the bottom economy-wise because a lot of people may still lose their jobs and there may be a 3-6 month delay before start to see all the mortgages that stop getting paid due to job losses. After that and hopefully with a vaccine/rapid testing solution in place it should be possible for the economy to recover quite strong.

[bitbunnny]

More companies have been suffering the worst days of business. Everyone are much concerned about the president election scheduled for this month. Once after the election there'll be sudden boost in the economy, particularly with the stocks. This growth is temporary and the same might be taken forward based on the money flow created by the forming government.

Many businesses and companies are struggling to survive but the worst thing is that we still don't see the end of this crisis.
Elections are close but who knows how the situation will develope afterwards, it might be better but it might be even worse. No one can't guarantee the boost and growth, this time situation is much more complicated and it's not only depending on politics. Pandemic at the moment has the greatest power.

[darewaller]

The deal about Trump and the economy is that we all know who Trump is and what he is all about and he is not a centrist or anything that could leave any question marks about him at all. Even Obama had 2 terms and had things that could be considered progressive and he had things that could be considered conservative as well, he was a true and true centrist so you didn't know what he was thinking about when it came down to each subject, maybe this time he would be left maybe he will be right.

Trump is not like that, on economy and on all other things we know where he stands, he is a far right person and will always be a far right person. Which is why economy could get as bad as it gets and people who support him will keep on supporting him no matter how bad things get, they knew what they were getting and they are fine with it.

[Torque]

My my, just look at that V-Shaped recovery in London! Amazing!  /s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd2-VY6roL0

[justdimin]

More companies have been suffering the worst days of business. Everyone are much concerned about the president election scheduled for this month. Once after the election there'll be sudden boost in the economy, particularly with the stocks. This growth is temporary and the same might be taken forward based on the money flow created by the forming government.

Many businesses and companies are struggling to survive but the worst thing is that we still don't see the end of this crisis.
Elections are close but who knows how the situation will develope afterwards, it might be better but it might be even worse. No one can't guarantee the boost and growth, this time situation is much more complicated and it's not only depending on politics. Pandemic at the moment has the greatest power.

It is becoming more about big companies versus small shops and that is the scary part about becoming on dimensional in the future.

For example, the pizza shop around the corner is not doing that well, they are not going to survive if this goes on a bit more, but pizza hut is not hurt at all, they have enough money and places that even if they do not have enough profits during this period, they could use their excess amount of profits they already made not only to keep surviving but also open more places while it is cheap as well.

Same goes for every business around the world, small places closes down and big places keep growing. This could cause economy to look better because there are huge companies profiting but the reality will be totally different from the numbers.