History repeats itself?

[GreatArkansas]

I saw this amazing chart in twitter and it is really simple showing an almost pattern since year 2012 - 2013.
I don't think so if it is really perfect one, but if you will compare from 2012 - 2013 and 2016 - 2017, they really got similarity and on the one where we are sitting right now. Since now we are now on ranging of $10, 000 price of Bitcoin, which it is also forming something similar pattern on previous years.


What's on your thoughts here? I really see some similar chart like this, comparing the previous years price actions to the present.

[STT]

Its a very long term chart with alot of leeway in there is usually how I view this.  I've seen similar based off gold (vs dollars) that could have us waiting till 2023 or so for an uptrend, I do expect a more positive year in 2021 or 2022 but its too early to act like its a certainty rather then just a maybe.     I'd rather take this chart as a good basis to hold while we rise rather then expect a turn around while we are generally declining in price.

[wheelz1200]

yeah that chart looks healthy.  I'm not huge on crypto technical analysis because there are so many other factors that apply to spikes and falls but i agree with the trajectory of the chart and its historical relevance.  Looking forward to the next leg up it shouldn't be too far ahead of us.

[GreatArkansas]

I'm also worried about what will happen once that trendline below will be broken and what we experienced before will not happen this time.
That's why my instinct is really scary for me since we always expecting only a positive way, we should also be prepared for the negative one.

(....)
 I do expect a more positive year in 2021 or 2022 but its too early to expect it.

Late 2021 and 2022 too if we really want to happen what happen in previous years. When we also base the block halvings, all-time-highs most happen after the block halvings.

[goaldigger]

There's a proof that history repeat itself and since this is just a cycle, many professional investors are seeing a good future with bitcoin and its also happening with the stock market.

Everyone here is just waiting for the right time for the next bull market, though the chart trend can't tell when it will happen I still believe that good and bad history will repeat itself, create strategies now and don't just watch those trends its better to ride with it.

[Fundamentals Of]

Those two parallel lines could still be made even if Bitcoin wouldn't rise as expected or speculated. I am 100% sure that Bitcoin would rise above its all time high. It is just a matter of when. But we cannot be certain of what Bitcoin will go through before that happens. Its next 2017-like bull run may happen a few years from now or even 5 years. Also, Bitcoin could still fall to as low as $3,000 once again before that happens. There are so many possibilities in between history repeating itself.

[adaseb]

I would not trust those trendlines, honestly very rarely do they work out in crypto or even stock trading. They are like Elliot waves, they look great in hindsight but for actual trading not very accurate at all.

What I like about the BNC index is that it follows the 200 WMA very well. I took a few spot long positions the last 2 times these levels were touched, back in Dec 2018 and March 2020 and both of these trades worked out. This is the only indicator that I would trust long term with BTC.

The 200 WMA goes up every week so it provides good support for the longer that BTC trades sideways, so currently its at $6800 and goes slightly higher. So if we ever break the $8000 support, most likely the $7000 area should be good support.

[exstasie]

yeah that chart looks healthy.

Actually it looks pretty ugly after the March crash. I don't think that logarithmic channel is going to hold for much longer.

What's on your thoughts here? I really see some similar chart like this, comparing the previous years price actions to the present.

I find the log trend theory and related 4-year cycle theory to be pretty tired. I don't think they will stand the test of time, and I also think they make people miss the forest for the trees:

Since Bitcoin's price is directly related to adoption, we can think of its price cycle in terms of technology adoption curves. Now if BTC is to become mass adopted, then we're still only in the early adopter phase:



Consider the implications of that. The chart visually shows how the price cycles seen in 2011-2017 may just be tiny blips compared to the mega gains coming during the mass adoption phase.

People around here can barely conceive of > $20K. Let's talk millions USD.

[pooya87]

i don't really like this type of speculation about the price using the past performances as they are not a guarantee for future trends but on every cycle i keep seeing the same thing repeated and i have already seen 2 of them. both the charts, the market and the market sentiments are exactly the same. predictions coming out from traders on this forum, reddit, tradingview and elsewhere are also pretty much the same as it were on similar times during each of those cycles.
so it is not just some pattern on the charts, it is dozens of factors that are the same as ever so it is a safe bet to say the same trend is going to be repeated too.

[Jating]

One thing to remember though that the market is very young and as such the data could be skewed to fit our narratives. Maybe in the next coming years or as we "almost" mine bitcoin, maybe some pattern will emerge. But with just a 10 year period, it's hard to conclude if history are going to repeat itself.

The 'four year cycle' could still fit in that logarithmic pattern, and yet there are proponents that as we go along that cycle at some point will diverge forming a new pattern, and then we developed a new "theory'.

[gabbie2010]

It obvious that the band had acted well as a support and resistance the price had repeatedly bounced off on those zones in the past while a break in the trendline ensures another pump in price which is presently playing out now, the price of Bitcoin had been maintaining some level of stability in the past 60 days is a pointer to the fact history will likely repeat itself while other factors remaining constant bearing in mind that this is just a Technical Analysis price at times defies TA.

[exstasie]

i don't really like this type of speculation about the price using the past performances as they are not a guarantee for future trends but on every cycle i keep seeing the same thing repeated and i have already seen 2 of them. both the charts, the market and the market sentiments are exactly the same. predictions coming out from traders on this forum, reddit, tradingview and elsewhere are also pretty much the same as it were on similar times during each of those cycles.
so it is not just some pattern on the charts, it is dozens of factors that are the same as ever so it is a safe bet to say the same trend is going to be repeated too.

When everyone is thinking the same thing (in this case, moon) the opposite often happens. I'd be more comfortable if we had more "Bitcoin is dead" sentiment, like we had in mid-2015. We all know what happened after that.

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

[YuginKadoya]

Now that it completes the arc going down I think it is time for the momentum going up again, at a recent time it goes up to $10698.82 USD but get back down again to $10,573.01 USD It didn't penetrate the resistance of $10,700 USD but In my opinion, it will surely skyrocket again as the graph predicted it would be, Or maybe it might be wrong as well but charts like these were the essential way to predict the upcoming movement of Bitcoin.

[stomachgrowls]

I saw this amazing chart in twitter and it is really simple showing an almost pattern since year 2012 - 2013.
I don't think so if it is really perfect one, but if you will compare from 2012 - 2013 and 2016 - 2017, they really got similarity and on the one where we are sitting right now. Since now we are now on ranging of $10, 000 price of Bitcoin, which it is also forming something similar pattern on previous years

What's on your thoughts here? I really see some similar chart like this, comparing the previous years price actions to the present.

We can speculate all we want and its not new that these technical analysis about seeing the history or past movement then its no surprise that it would really form out a possible pattern which can be possibly connected
on what would possibly happen in the future.Im not really fan of to believe on such predictions but im not totally closing up my mind into those presumptions.

History repeats itself? Its neither Yes or No, because we can tell if this one would be precise if it did actually happen but for now then theres no other thing but to speculate.Yeah, we do have basis but not really a solid
foundation nor to be relied upon with your trading or investment decisions.

Ive seen lots of charts telling this and telling that but most of them do fail out to guess on what would be the next move.Some might able to hit up but most of the time they do miss.
This is why its better to trade with the current price movement and i dont care too much on what would be the future price movement.

[Upgrade00]

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

2018 to about early 2019 felt like a 'long boring despair period' in th market. IIRC, the price hovered around 3k to 6k after the crash from the ATH in 2017, holding this range for a number of months and causing lots of bearish sentiments among investors and traders. March dump was probably not a repeated sequence in a pattern but just an effect of factors that influence the price.

I would not be too surprised if the market does not break through an All time high in the next couple of months, as people expect and as a couple of indicators have been pointing towards, although I expect we would see a new ATH within the next 2 years at most.

[Viscore]

I'm also worried about what will happen once that trendline below will be broken and what we experienced before will not happen this time.
That's why my instinct is really scary for me since we always expecting only a positive way, we should also be prepared for the negative one.

That is a thing I had worried about coz I know that most of us are thinking only the positive but truly unpreferred for the sudden drop if it comes. In fact, we can see how weak hands just throw their tokens right away when hearing bad news, I'm worried about how they respond when seeing the drops that we have experience in the past years.

Well, I'm not seeing history repeats itself but I also thinking WHAT IF? A thing that possible to happen.

[GreatArkansas]

When everyone is thinking the same thing (in this case, moon) the opposite often happens. I'd be more comfortable if we had more "Bitcoin is dead" sentiment, like we had in mid-2015. We all know what happened after that.

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

January 2015


December 2018 & March 2020



Here is the chart for the January 2015 crash and March 2020, and also the December 2018 (I added the two in one chart).
Do you think instead of the March 2020 crash, they are have more similiary of December 2018 crash, where they are almost the same days when was the dump and the percentage of lost, which is around -85%.
They really got a huge similarity here, even after the 2015 January crash, after few months, the price of Bitcoin still didn't reach a new all-time-high, it's still neutral .

[Hippocrypto]

Those two parallel lines could still be made even if Bitcoin wouldn't rise as expected or speculated. I am 100% sure that Bitcoin would rise above its all time high. It is just a matter of when. But we cannot be certain of what Bitcoin will go through before that happens. Its next 2017-like bull run may happen a few years from now or even 5 years. Also, Bitcoin could still fall to as low as $3,000 once again before that happens. There are so many possibilities in between history repeating itself.

Many times that bitcoin attempted to rise like of this trend that we see right now, but in my own opinion I still monitor the daily trend whether it's positive or bad. Furthermore, history is quite hard to initiate a good outcome just like the historical years and I hope so there's a better chances that might happen next year or earlier. Since the world hasn't recover back to normal financial situation, I believed this dreams couldn't be achieved so easily.

[BrewMaster]

Those two parallel lines could still be made even if Bitcoin wouldn't rise as expected or speculated. I am 100% sure that Bitcoin would rise above its all time high. It is just a matter of when. But we cannot be certain of what Bitcoin will go through before that happens. Its next 2017-like bull run may happen a few years from now or even 5 years. Also, Bitcoin could still fall to as low as $3,000 once again before that happens. There are so many possibilities in between history repeating itself.

each time that the same thing repeats, it will become stronger because each time more people know and expect the same thing to happen so they join in. when 2010 bull run happened it was very small but the next one was a lot bigger then we had a huge bull run in 2013. all for the same exact reasons.
then came 2017 and every thing repeated but this time a lot bigger than all the previous times and this time sooner too.
the thing is that from 2013 bubble burst until 2017 start of the bull run has been the same trend as we had since 2018 bubble burst until today and on a bigger scale with a lot more volume and a moderately faster recovery.

that's why i don't expect the next ATH to be that far.

[SquallLeonhart]

Charts could be made to show whatever you want, there is no limit to what you can achieve with charts and what you want to say with charts, you can make it look like it is going just a bit up or just a bit down or you can make it look like it is going very high or dropping very low. You should definitely calm down and think of what you can do with the knowledge you have and not with the charts because if you focus only on the charts you see online, you are going to see everything.

I bet there is at least 2 people out there in the world right now who have successfully managed to make a chart one showing up and one showing down, same TA knowledge, same moment in time, both of them showing something else. This is why I believe there is really no reason to take them at face value.