Bitcoin, Altcoins, DeFi and what's next?

[tranthidung]

I don't complicate things so let's keep it simple with pure charts. Each viewers will watch and interpret them in their own perspectives.

• Bitcoin Dominance reaches its temp resistance.
• Altcoin dominance might bounce back
• DeFi might rise higher before being pulled back or it will be pulled back very soon
• Don't forget to exclude the large portions of DeFi from Altcoin dominance.

What does it mean?

• Bitcoin might rise higher after hours ago correction
• Altcoin bounce back to come but not too soon
• DeFi game won't last for too long

It is my own thoughts!  

[samcrypto]

The next trend will determine only by time and we can just speculate right now.
People are so excited again to see the new peak for bitcoin and we still have time to see that until the end of the year, though the chart may send a more up trend, we can't tell this easily since the market moves on every news that we have. Though of course I'm still bullish with bitcoin, altcoins, and I'm also hoping that good DeFi project will last since I'm holding some of them and I know they will continue to grow over time.

[CapGelatik]

maybe DEX will become a hype in the coming year,
especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

[ScamViruS]

maybe DEX will become a hype in the coming year,
especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

Maybe you're right. Different types of hype are created in the market from time to time and as a result up trend is seen in the market. With uniswap, a lot has already happened in the market and many people have got big free money. It is difficult to predict which will have an impact on the market in the future.

[noorman0]

maybe DEX will become a hype in the coming year,
especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

Actually, dex has tried to keep up with the defi hypestream during 2020. In my opinion, DEX is not a good business to get more profits quickly like defi. Also, too much of that dex will threaten the survival of the exchanges themselves as they depend on the liquidity pool. And exchanges must compete with each other to offer attractive rewards for liquidity providers.
You need to read the latest news about Uniswap here https://cointelegraph.com/news/uniswap-s-liquidity-plunges-40-in-a-day-as-incentives-dry-up

[joniboini]

especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

On what basis? CEXs are starting to copy what those DEXes did, and I bet most traders still look for liquidity with low cost for trading.

I honestly hope the next bull run will be fueled by utilities and fundamental usages instead of hype.

[boyptc]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

[el kaka22]

I believe defi will definitely reach to a level where they will have some sort of pull back from this level and they are not going to end up with anything lower than that and not going to have a higher but at the end of the day it is going to have some sort of steady going. Like sure it is not going to be this high, but it is not going to die down neither, it is going to be like 70% or so levels of this and they are going to end up with that 70% of today's volume for a very very long time.

DEX is not there to leave for example, and there could be some defi tokens that will go down but there will be ones that will go up, and we are just going to accept it as it is. Remember we all talk about ICO world and how we moved away from it but there are tons of ICO coins that still exist today and high levels.

[durilup]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

PayPal was hiring blockchain developers back in 2017 . I am more than sure they already developed a project for 2021 year also if I am not wrong people from US can buy crypto through PayPal . About ICO I am not sure if there will be still a hype for this since DeFi replaced it

[Sterbens]

The next trend will determine only by time and we can just speculate right now.
People are so excited again to see the new peak for bitcoin and we still have time to see that until the end of the year, though the chart may send a more up trend, we can't tell this easily since the market moves on every news that we have. Though of course I'm still bullish with bitcoin, altcoins, and I'm also hoping that good DeFi project will last since I'm holding some of them and I know they will continue to grow over time.

very excited. that's what everyone said including my friends. they were like being given a breath of fresh air to see the price of bitcoin touch the new ATH. current trends largely determine future movements. facing the biitcoin surge. I don't think which one will trend and go with bitcoin, the important thing is that right now we are really going to have a very exciting moment.

[Kupid002]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

PayPal was hiring blockchain developers back in 2017 . I am more than sure they already developed a project for 2021 year also if I am not wrong people from US can buy crypto through PayPal . About ICO I am not sure if there will be still a hype for this since DeFi replaced it

Even defi will also replace with another new hype project sooner or later. Since the trend almost ended and only few investors will continue investing in them because more traders will now focus on Bitcoin and other popular crypto currency to secure a profit if the bull run market will continue . In ICO it all depends how they secure it to investors and BTW the ETH 2.0 will release soon I think this will help to boost the interest of investors in the ETH platform.

[J1mb0]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

It is difficult for ICOs to get back to the way they were in 2017, investors are tired of the promises of ICOs and they don't want to invest in new ICO projects.
I don't know what the next crypto market trend is, but I will continue to invest in the top altcoins in today's market.

[Nellayar]

Bitcoin is really kicking the altcoins out of the market. It showed how he coined "King of Cryptocurrency" because whenever he moves, altcoins despair from their lights. Altcoins are really down today, I bought some altcoins yesterday because I want to utilize my investment to my coins. However, I allocated lots of my capital in bitcoin. Defi hype is over, no one is staying in cryptocurrency. All of the sudden it becomes the trend but it immediately fades. What's next? The next thing is that we prepare for a potential ath of bitcoin and ethereum. Altcoins will surely follow after their dominance.

[tranthidung]

On what basis? CEXs are starting to copy what those DEXes did, and I bet most traders still look for liquidity with low cost for trading.

I honestly hope the next bull run will be fueled by utilities and fundamental usages instead of hype.

Who will need DEX? I remembered I read a discussion about it on the forum weeks ago. After DeFi plummeted, the reason was raised again that whether DEXes are better than CEXes and who will need DEXes. It does not take into account the fact that most of self-claim DEXes are actually not decentralized platforms at all.

Flippening: Crypto Decentralized Exchanges Grew More Than Centralized Ones In Q3 2020

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

My thought is it depends on the trend of the market: bull or bear. Big positive news always boosts the market up but its effects often are bigger in bull trend and smaller in bear trend. The same goes for negative news.

Companies come and go and news are from them and their future development plan, more products for bitcoin/ crypto are only reasons whales use to boost the market and retailers wait for such news to FOMO.

I believe defi will definitely reach to a level where they will have some sort of pull back from this level and they are not going to end up with anything lower than that and not going to have a higher but at the end of the day it is going to have some sort of steady going. Like sure it is not going to be this high, but it is not going to die down neither, it is going to be like 70% or so levels of this and they are going to end up with that 70% of today's volume for a very very long time.

Correct. It is what I am talking about in OP. DeFi hits their so-called resistance and bitcoin reaches its temp resistance in dominance. They should be pulled back. Unfortunately, the large capital (market cap) of DeFi (they are altcoins too) bias the domination rates and these contributors might give bitcoin a force to rise up more. Of course, it is only one side of the story and at the end, it depends on how whales will do next?

Just note it and wait for the market actions.

DEX is not there to leave for example, and there could be some defi tokens that will go down but there will be ones that will go up, and we are just going to accept it as it is.

They will exist but to say big success or a new revolution from them to come and will last long, I don't believe in such scenario.

[boyptc]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

PayPal was hiring blockchain developers back in 2017 . I am more than sure they already developed a project for 2021 year also if I am not wrong people from US can buy crypto through PayPal . About ICO I am not sure if there will be still a hype for this since DeFi replaced it

I was thinking that the action they've made is for the feature that they've just announced lately. But there is a possibility that they are silently developing another thing and it could be more than that.

It is difficult for ICOs to get back to the way they were in 2017, investors are tired of the promises of ICOs and they don't want to invest in new ICO projects.
I don't know what the next crypto market trend is, but I will continue to invest in the top altcoins in today's market.

Well, if you PayPal's name on it. Investors will bite it.

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

My thought is it depends on the trend of the market: bull or bear. Big positive news always boosts the market up but its effects often are bigger in bull trend and smaller in bear trend. The same goes for negative news.

Companies come and go and news are from them and their future development plan, more products for bitcoin/ crypto are only reasons whales use to boost the market and retailers wait for such news to FOMO.

You're right, the trend is bullish this time and more projects could come in and they might create something new which will cause another FOMO for most investors just like those ICO days. It could be or couldn't be the same as the ICO but it will create another hype.

[davinchi]

"Growing" is a tricky situation in this scenario. Obviously decentralized exchanges became a huge thing, now settling down a bit but they were never really bigger than the centralized ones that long. Anyone who thinks dex ever became bigger than binance doesn't really realize how big binance really is, they are not even compared to each other.

This is why I highly suggest everyone to take a look at dex as something that grew a lot but they were almost non-existent so growing faster wasn't really a problem. Going from 1 million to 100 million means 100x growth whereas going from 1 billion to 1.2 billion is 20% growth whereas one is 99 million grown while other is 200 million grown. So I think cex is still around and will be around for a very very long time.

[Silberman]

especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

On what basis? CEXs are starting to copy what those DEXes did, and I bet most traders still look for liquidity with low cost for trading.

I honestly hope the next bull run will be fueled by utilities and fundamental usages instead of hype.

That is kind of contradictory don't you think? A sudden increase in the price cannot be fuelled by fundamentals, it can be part of the equation but is never going to be the main one, hype is always going to be behind every single bull run in any market, however I agree that decentralized exchanges are probably not going to be at the centre of the next bull run because as you say the moment that they make an innovation centralized exchanges are going to copy it immediately.

[Viscore]

especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

On what basis? CEXs are starting to copy what those DEXes did, and I bet most traders still look for liquidity with low cost for trading.

I honestly hope the next bull run will be fueled by utilities and fundamental usages instead of hype.

I'd rather see like that than seeing it in hypes that burst after and were those late investors suffered losses and fired it back to crypto instead of blaming themselves. But talking about CEXes and DEXes, people will still be choosing decentralized exchanges.
I'd never think that the Defi project will make a recovery after losing its value. But instead to see those potential altcoins rallying this time following the Bitcoin trend as we can see it. This leaves a hope that 2017 will be showing again back this year(if possible) or next year. 

[nelson4lov]

According to recent market movements, I think we would see another DeFi bull run before its final demise. DeFi hype is being heavily fueled by the insane gains they are handing out to people participating in these protocols. The question I've always asked myself is where these projects get funds to cover for the insane APYs they offer to their users. I have participated in two - three DeFi protocols and like other projects, it was off to a rocket start but things got slow with the steady inflation and it took a toll on the token price which entered a steady decline.

~Snipped
Going from 1 million to 100 million means 100x growth whereas going from 1 billion to 1.2 billion is 20% growth whereas one is 99 million grown while other is 200 million grown. So I think cex is still around and will be around for a very very long time.

The reason why people are still sticking with CEXs instead of DEXs is because of the service they provide. They remove a lot of abstractions and make things easy for users. That's not something you find on these Decentralized exchanges. As a user of both type of exchanges, it's safe to say that both type of exchanges will continue to exist.

[GreatArkansas]

I am curious about the DeFi Index Perpetual Futures by FTX, how it works or what is/are the computations to get the index price?
I thought the total volume of Defi is the last chart, the total value locked in DeFi.
For me in Bitcoin Dominance, since last month I started to monitor closely it and I really expected it will visit again the 70% level, which it may correct again and fall or breakout with a massive pump again on Bitcoin.

[tranthidung]

I am curious about the DeFi Index Perpetual Futures by FTX, how it works or what is/are the computations to get the index price?

Here you go with real chart, some notes, and Index Calculation Formula on FTX. It is obviously that the index is not a representative for all DeFi tokens.

Chart: https://ftx.com/en/trade/DEFI-PERP

DEFI-PERP tracks the price of a basket of Decentralized Finance coins, using a weighed average of the prices of KNC, MKR, ZRX, REN, REP, SNX, COMP, TOMO, RUNE, CRV, DOT, LINK, MTA, SOL, CREAM, BAND, SRM, SUSHI, SWRV, AVAX, YFI, UNI, WNXM, AAVE, BAL. Get exposure to 25 different coins with one future!

The Index Calculation Formula: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360027668812-Index-Calculation

DEFI: The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Index contains the following coins and quantities:

Ticker   Quantity
KNC   67.673
MKR   0.306
ZRX   243.498
REN   292.601
REP   1.752
SNX   43.216
COMP   1.274
TOMO   25.564
RUNE   71.456
CRV   34.845
DOT   44.316
LINK   15.649
MTA   2.916
SOL   15.134
CREAM   0.154
BAND   7.826
SRM   16.844
SUSHI   34.072
SWRV   2.612
AVAX   8.057
YFI   0.01
UNI   62.448
WNXM   0.665
AAVE   3.664
BAL   2.821
 
All elements of each index are weighted equally.  All elements are capped at 30bp divergence from the median.

I thought the total volume of Defi is the last chart, the total value locked in DeFi.

The total value (USD) locked in DeFi is one side of the story. The point I want to emphasize is the over-inflated, fake and bubble marketcap from DeFi tokens. Most of those tokens are copy-cats, and they have extremely high inflation. With a specific token, you can see its marketcap increases but it does not mean the token value is increase. The marketcap increase probably comes from token inflation and cover the lost in token value.

For me in Bitcoin Dominance, since last month I started to monitor closely it and I really expected it will visit again the 70% level, which it may correct again and fall or breakout with a massive pump again on Bitcoin.

With the over value from DeFi shit tokens, I still see a scenario for bitcoin to keep rising in domination to 70% (without the bubble from DeFi, I believe bitcoin will stop here and won't climb up to 70%).

3-day chart: What do you expect more amazing rise from bitcoin (of course with many more factors that are not discussed here) ?

Anyway, I am preparing for 2 scenarios but I have more allocations of portfolio for the pull back of bitcoin.  

[ice098]

Defi still in game. DEX will definitely be the trend and take place of centralized exchanges. Chinese investor here and Okex really f* me up.

Polka parachains might be the next opportunity and $DOT has started pumping already.

I agree, defi era is not yet done, it is still hot these days and probably in the next few months, there are some good defi projects that has been created and become successful, there is some scenarios the when a project become successful some team members create a new token again the build it up like the first one and try to make it successful as well, and it's effective, I think next thing in crypto now is those defi projects or normal projects under BSC, I think it is a hot topic for now and many developers are using it now.

[gentlemand]

If this cycle plays out it's the one where Bitcoin puts itself above anything else so emphatically that the 'battle' will be over. The big wigs are not going to give many others a look in and the law of primacy will win out.

That's not to say there won't be a ton of action lower down but it's going to look increasingly puerile. Not that that's going to stop anyone of course.

[tranthidung]

Defi still in game. DEX will definitely be the trend and take place of centralized exchanges. Chinese investor here and Okex really f* me up.

Polka parachains might be the next opportunity and $DOT has started pumping already.

You should know that with DeFi you have more bonds with pools and it is worse than staking or masternode in the past. It is true that each person as an investor has personal favorite habit and taste to invest. Keep in mind that you have to afford any lose with risky investments.

And please stop promote any shit token here.

I agree, defi era is not yet done, it is still hot these days and probably in the next few months, there are some good defi projects that has been created and become successful, there is some scenarios the when a project become successful some team members create a new token again the build it up like the first one and try to make it successful as well, and it's effective, I think next thing in crypto now is those defi projects or normal projects under BSC, I think it is a hot topic for now and many developers are using it now.

If you know that how the ICO era reached their all time high and collapsed, you would be more careful with DeFi. Tons of scam and they even don't give you any financial freedom. What DeFi projects and pools give you is greed and uncontrollable emotion then decisions.

I have minor advice for you. Your post have many words but there is single dot. Please also see Bitcointalk posting etiquette

If this cycle plays out it's the one where Bitcoin puts itself above anything else so emphatically that the 'battle' will be over. The big wigs are not going to give many others a look in and the law of primacy will win out.

That's not to say there won't be a ton of action lower down but it's going to look increasingly puerile. Not that that's going to stop anyone of course.

Bitcoin does not need any battle. Altcoins (DeFi tokens are altcoins too) are created and try to seed their shit missions to take over bitcoin. I am sure they will all fail because bitcoin is the King, and backbone of the cryptocurrency market.

I am not native English-speaker so your post is challenging me to catch your ideas.  

[proTECH77]

Many traders are still wondering about the rising of bitcoin, that is making other cryptocurrencies to reduce in the market since we enter pandemic. Many bitcoin traders are making profit every night and day, just because bitcoin is still rising in the area of exchange market that is causing traders a big profit from their trade in the market.
Altcoin is still reducing despite the year is approaching, many altcoin trader are still wondering why altcoin is not yet improve for them to recover for all the loss, they experienced during the pandemic that reduce so many investors to zero level. Altcoin is preparing to rise, since the supply is reducing gradually in the market, that is making the demand to start increase in the market, show that all altcoin trader are about to smile as usual in the market.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The Bitcoin market when the bullish trend is confirmed the Alts season will begin its ascent, the Defi system is the most accepted so far for what it represents, from now on more new things will come out as people accept blockchain. It will be more good things, the important thing is that those good things developed will greatly help the increase in the price of Bitcoin. Some say that Defi is the replacement for ICOs, but it all depends on the approach, since people have the experience of ICOs, they will not fall into mistakes of the past.

[santiPOGI]

maybe DEX will become a hype in the coming year,
especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

If DEX will become a hype in the coming year, that's a great news to all crypto lovers and its a great news if that happen.
And one more thing, isn't almost all Defi coin are centralized based system where most of them didn't stand live for long
here in crypto space?

[SquallLeonhart]

Charts are very complicated to people who do not know how to read them, there are people like me who checks out a chart and can't say anything about it, to me it looks like just some green and red bars and that's it, I am looking at them like it is an image and not something I need to understand anything from .

However if you are expert on this subject, you could check out the chart and see what type of profit it could make or if it will go down type of deals. Those are the things that chart readers can do by looking at it and they can tell you what it "should" do but obviously nobody can say what it "will" do because that is impossible to predict.

This defi hype and the good future outlook on many of its tokens/coins doesn't look temporary so even if you can't read charts, you should know that it was hyped but it didn't die down too much like people predicted.

[Swopon]

Maybe you mean about the trend which can create hype for a certain period. A few days back we have seen a trend which was Defi. Now we are seeing Bitcoin is getting high from the last 2 weeks. It is not a simple thing to predict the next hype. But expecting the next hype will be Dex which means Decentralized exchanges. Maybe it will be next but who knows about surely

[Reid]

Bitcoin might rise higher after hours ago correction

True.

Altcoin bounce back to come but not too soon

True.

DeFi game won't last for too long

True.

Yeah, we have the same thoughts.
It will be difficult to bring back the investors on altcoins.
Why? They are making profits with Bitcoin now and that's all about it. Money.

DeFi. Picked DeFi projects will stay but others, especially the new ones might not get any funds anymore.
Simply because they are now switching to Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin dump will come and it cannot be stopped. There will always be a selling point. We just don't know when.

[illnino]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

I will be not surprised if it happens. ICO projects have not yet shown their biggest potential. Besides, some people will be glad to continue participating in Bounties. Whatever happens, Bitcoin will be always in trend. It is the market leader for all the times.