Bitcoin, Altcoins, DeFi and what's next?

[tranthidung]

I am curious about the DeFi Index Perpetual Futures by FTX, how it works or what is/are the computations to get the index price?

Here you go with real chart, some notes, and Index Calculation Formula on FTX. It is obviously that the index is not a representative for all DeFi tokens.

Chart: https://ftx.com/en/trade/DEFI-PERP

DEFI-PERP tracks the price of a basket of Decentralized Finance coins, using a weighed average of the prices of KNC, MKR, ZRX, REN, REP, SNX, COMP, TOMO, RUNE, CRV, DOT, LINK, MTA, SOL, CREAM, BAND, SRM, SUSHI, SWRV, AVAX, YFI, UNI, WNXM, AAVE, BAL. Get exposure to 25 different coins with one future!

The Index Calculation Formula: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360027668812-Index-Calculation

DEFI: The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Index contains the following coins and quantities:

Ticker   Quantity
KNC   67.673
MKR   0.306
ZRX   243.498
REN   292.601
REP   1.752
SNX   43.216
COMP   1.274
TOMO   25.564
RUNE   71.456
CRV   34.845
DOT   44.316
LINK   15.649
MTA   2.916
SOL   15.134
CREAM   0.154
BAND   7.826
SRM   16.844
SUSHI   34.072
SWRV   2.612
AVAX   8.057
YFI   0.01
UNI   62.448
WNXM   0.665
AAVE   3.664
BAL   2.821
 
All elements of each index are weighted equally.  All elements are capped at 30bp divergence from the median.

I thought the total volume of Defi is the last chart, the total value locked in DeFi.

The total value (USD) locked in DeFi is one side of the story. The point I want to emphasize is the over-inflated, fake and bubble marketcap from DeFi tokens. Most of those tokens are copy-cats, and they have extremely high inflation. With a specific token, you can see its marketcap increases but it does not mean the token value is increase. The marketcap increase probably comes from token inflation and cover the lost in token value.

For me in Bitcoin Dominance, since last month I started to monitor closely it and I really expected it will visit again the 70% level, which it may correct again and fall or breakout with a massive pump again on Bitcoin.

With the over value from DeFi shit tokens, I still see a scenario for bitcoin to keep rising in domination to 70% (without the bubble from DeFi, I believe bitcoin will stop here and won't climb up to 70%).

3-day chart: What do you expect more amazing rise from bitcoin (of course with many more factors that are not discussed here) ?

Anyway, I am preparing for 2 scenarios but I have more allocations of portfolio for the pull back of bitcoin.  

[ice098]

Defi still in game. DEX will definitely be the trend and take place of centralized exchanges. Chinese investor here and Okex really f* me up.

Polka parachains might be the next opportunity and $DOT has started pumping already.

I agree, defi era is not yet done, it is still hot these days and probably in the next few months, there are some good defi projects that has been created and become successful, there is some scenarios the when a project become successful some team members create a new token again the build it up like the first one and try to make it successful as well, and it's effective, I think next thing in crypto now is those defi projects or normal projects under BSC, I think it is a hot topic for now and many developers are using it now.

[gentlemand]

If this cycle plays out it's the one where Bitcoin puts itself above anything else so emphatically that the 'battle' will be over. The big wigs are not going to give many others a look in and the law of primacy will win out.

That's not to say there won't be a ton of action lower down but it's going to look increasingly puerile. Not that that's going to stop anyone of course.

[tranthidung]

Defi still in game. DEX will definitely be the trend and take place of centralized exchanges. Chinese investor here and Okex really f* me up.

Polka parachains might be the next opportunity and $DOT has started pumping already.

You should know that with DeFi you have more bonds with pools and it is worse than staking or masternode in the past. It is true that each person as an investor has personal favorite habit and taste to invest. Keep in mind that you have to afford any lose with risky investments.

And please stop promote any shit token here.

I agree, defi era is not yet done, it is still hot these days and probably in the next few months, there are some good defi projects that has been created and become successful, there is some scenarios the when a project become successful some team members create a new token again the build it up like the first one and try to make it successful as well, and it's effective, I think next thing in crypto now is those defi projects or normal projects under BSC, I think it is a hot topic for now and many developers are using it now.

If you know that how the ICO era reached their all time high and collapsed, you would be more careful with DeFi. Tons of scam and they even don't give you any financial freedom. What DeFi projects and pools give you is greed and uncontrollable emotion then decisions.

I have minor advice for you. Your post have many words but there is single dot. Please also see Bitcointalk posting etiquette

If this cycle plays out it's the one where Bitcoin puts itself above anything else so emphatically that the 'battle' will be over. The big wigs are not going to give many others a look in and the law of primacy will win out.

That's not to say there won't be a ton of action lower down but it's going to look increasingly puerile. Not that that's going to stop anyone of course.

Bitcoin does not need any battle. Altcoins (DeFi tokens are altcoins too) are created and try to seed their shit missions to take over bitcoin. I am sure they will all fail because bitcoin is the King, and backbone of the cryptocurrency market.

I am not native English-speaker so your post is challenging me to catch your ideas.  

[proTECH77]

Many traders are still wondering about the rising of bitcoin, that is making other cryptocurrencies to reduce in the market since we enter pandemic. Many bitcoin traders are making profit every night and day, just because bitcoin is still rising in the area of exchange market that is causing traders a big profit from their trade in the market.
Altcoin is still reducing despite the year is approaching, many altcoin trader are still wondering why altcoin is not yet improve for them to recover for all the loss, they experienced during the pandemic that reduce so many investors to zero level. Altcoin is preparing to rise, since the supply is reducing gradually in the market, that is making the demand to start increase in the market, show that all altcoin trader are about to smile as usual in the market.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The Bitcoin market when the bullish trend is confirmed the Alts season will begin its ascent, the Defi system is the most accepted so far for what it represents, from now on more new things will come out as people accept blockchain. It will be more good things, the important thing is that those good things developed will greatly help the increase in the price of Bitcoin. Some say that Defi is the replacement for ICOs, but it all depends on the approach, since people have the experience of ICOs, they will not fall into mistakes of the past.

[santiPOGI]

maybe DEX will become a hype in the coming year,
especially since Uniswap has already started how DEX can be successful when DEFI experiences Fomo now,
I guarantee DEX will be the next Hype.

If DEX will become a hype in the coming year, that's a great news to all crypto lovers and its a great news if that happen.
And one more thing, isn't almost all Defi coin are centralized based system where most of them didn't stand live for long
here in crypto space?

[SquallLeonhart]

Charts are very complicated to people who do not know how to read them, there are people like me who checks out a chart and can't say anything about it, to me it looks like just some green and red bars and that's it, I am looking at them like it is an image and not something I need to understand anything from .

However if you are expert on this subject, you could check out the chart and see what type of profit it could make or if it will go down type of deals. Those are the things that chart readers can do by looking at it and they can tell you what it "should" do but obviously nobody can say what it "will" do because that is impossible to predict.

This defi hype and the good future outlook on many of its tokens/coins doesn't look temporary so even if you can't read charts, you should know that it was hyped but it didn't die down too much like people predicted.

[Swopon]

Maybe you mean about the trend which can create hype for a certain period. A few days back we have seen a trend which was Defi. Now we are seeing Bitcoin is getting high from the last 2 weeks. It is not a simple thing to predict the next hype. But expecting the next hype will be Dex which means Decentralized exchanges. Maybe it will be next but who knows about surely

[Reid]

Bitcoin might rise higher after hours ago correction

True.

Altcoin bounce back to come but not too soon

True.

DeFi game won't last for too long

True.

Yeah, we have the same thoughts.
It will be difficult to bring back the investors on altcoins.
Why? They are making profits with Bitcoin now and that's all about it. Money.

DeFi. Picked DeFi projects will stay but others, especially the new ones might not get any funds anymore.
Simply because they are now switching to Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin dump will come and it cannot be stopped. There will always be a selling point. We just don't know when.

[illnino]

IMO, the next trend will be the same as the cycle before.

What if ICO will come back in life and PayPal will start it out? Citibank is also showing the sign of its interest or they have already had an entry to it and they'll start the same hype as before?

Just my thought too. 

I will be not surprised if it happens. ICO projects have not yet shown their biggest potential. Besides, some people will be glad to continue participating in Bounties. Whatever happens, Bitcoin will be always in trend. It is the market leader for all the times.