NBA preseason betting experiment on totals.

[Natalim]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

[1715333185]

1715333185

[swogerino]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

Good luck on your experiment but I don’t think that for example if the majority of the games end with over in this preseason,it will also happen again in the next one.Many people read statistics in sport betting but are only disappointed when they see that statistics didn’t work out.

[Zackgeno96]

Was this a total over and under? I would like to see what will happen on this thread honestly I was no luck in those bets since there's a lot of things to happen most of the time I place bet on every total over and under every quarter but most of the time I lose.

[Natalim]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

Good luck on your experiment but I don’t think that for example if the majority of the games end with over in this preseason,it will also happen again in the next one.Many people read statistics in sport betting but are only disappointed when they see that statistics didn’t work out.

Yes, I know it could be different but I believe that most games will go over since this is just like an exhibition games where we will see games with lack of defense.

Was this a total over and under?

Yup!

I would like to see what will happen on this thread honestly I was no luck in those bets since there's a lot of things to happen most of the time I place bet on every total over and under every quarter but most of the time I lose.

Okay, follow this thread carefully, what I'm doing here is just betting without analysis, just bet on the over every time.



So here we go.

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

______
will update the total if it's available. updated

[Viscore]

Good luck mate, looking forward for a success of your experiment, game will start in less than an hour, so the excitement will start soon.
I have already place my bet also, more on the total but not all on over of course. 

[ingiltere]

Okay, follow this thread carefully, what I'm doing here is just betting without analysis, just bet on the over every time.

Good luck with your bets but I don't really understand your strategy on betting only "over", how do you pick score range and play over?

You know some bookmakers give odds for 200, 204, 208, 210 points etc. barrier in a game and you can select whichever you fit your prediction well.

Also over bet ranges are going up when teams score more points game after game, bookmakers have special statistical calculators to find the perfect range. If you only play over bets that means you bet on teams that will only make their scoring average higher day by day.

Will you select only the optimal over/under range?

[bisdak40]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

[kkaroul4]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

Great prediction! if things go well I think you can create your own prediction thread and I'll follow your tips in NBA totals. It's nice that the NBA now starts the preseason may I ask when is the start of the NBA season?

[Finestream]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

Great prediction! if things go well I think you can create your own prediction thread and I'll follow your tips in NBA totals. It's nice that the NBA now starts the preseason may I ask when is the start of the NBA season?

LMAO, OP's prediction is just an experiment, it's like blindly betting on the overs in all games available in the preseason, and thus far, it looks like the experiment is going at his expectation as his winning rate is currently at 60% or 3 out of 5, but this is just the first day of the preseason, more games to come so it's hard to conclude for now.

[Natalim]

Day 2 of the preseason.

1- Toronto at Charlotte over 220 - loss
2-  Indiana at Cleveland over 217.5 - - loss
3-  Oklahoma City at San Antonio over 220 - win
4-   Dallas at Milwaukee over 226 - loss
5-   Memphis at Minnesota over 225 - loss
6-   Denver at Golden State over 223 - loss
7-  Phoenix at Utah over 223 - win

Good luck!

[Russlenat]

Another games, this time we have 7, let's see if you'll have a profitable day in day 2.

The first game is about to start in a hour, so if it will be over, that's a good start, for your pick though it's all OVER. 
Don't forget to update these games into your summary in the OP, this thread might consume pages, just for easy tracking.

[Hydrogen]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

My approach was to watch games and note which teams had a high scoring average as a result of them playing at a fast pace. And which teams had a high scoring average as a result of shooting accuracy. Teams that played at a fast pace were my go to option for playing the over. In theory their fast pace would not only give themselves more opportunities to score. The opposing team would also have more opportunities. A team with a high shooting accuracy wouldn't do much to help the other team hit the over, while a fast pace would. A fast pace may also be a more consistent variable in contrast to accuracy. Due to it being easier to maintain.

Teams that played at a slow pace were my go to for playing the under. As their slow pace would not only diminish the number of scoring opportunities they had. But also run the clock down, denying the opposing team of opportunities to score.

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

[magneto]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

My approach was to watch games and note which teams had a high scoring average as a result of them playing at a fast pace. And which teams had a high scoring average as a result of shooting accuracy. Teams that played at a fast pace were my go to option for playing the over. In theory their fast pace would not only give themselves more opportunities to score. The opposing team would also have more opportunities. A team with a high shooting accuracy wouldn't do much to help the other team hit the over, while a fast pace would. A fast pace may also be a more consistent variable in contrast to accuracy. Due to it being easier to maintain.

Teams that played at a slow pace were my go to for playing the under. As their slow pace would not only diminish the number of scoring opportunities they had. But also run the clock down, denying the opposing team of opportunities to score.

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

Definitely. Your analysis is on point. Pace (possessions per 48 mins or other measurements) and true shooting are certainly great predictors for point totals.

My only concern is that your method does not consider the odds. It is very likely, and even probable that bookmakers and other market participants have access to the same information as you and therefore the odds already have this information priced in as people favour over for teams with faster pace and accuaracy.

So in the long run, you don't really gain an advantage (theoretically, if markets are efficient) if you bet by this method; unless you determine for each game that a price is worth betting at.

[Natalim]

Day 3 of the preseason.

Orlando at Atlanta over 224.5 - loss
Washington at Brooklyn over 225.5 - win
New York at Detroit over 210.5 - loss
Houston at Chicago over 220 - loss
L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers over 212 - win
Sacramento at Portland over 227 - win

[bisdak40]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

~snip~

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

Your analysis/input ^^ definitely help and that might be applicable to games in the eliminations. But as what the OP has said that this experiment of his/her is only during the pre-season only as these games tend to be high scoring due to lack of defense as what i have seen it.

So far we can observe that OP is at 50/50 in term of win and lose but it's not conclusive yet as we are only on the third day of this experiment. 

[Reid]

Hello Natalim!
Looks like your experiment is disappointing you.   Just kidding.
I actually thought it will be a successful one since it's "preseason" and players tend to make it look like an All-Star game.  
But what happened is they gave more minutes to the bench like it's garbage time.
So, this might really not work out.

What's the status?
10L 8W?

Damn, I hope I can join you in this but my kid massacred my phone and I can't get my 2FA in Sportsbet.  
Waiting to be repaired.

[Ziskinberg]

You are right @Reid, it looks like the trend was under, and it's been killing those who are betting on over most of the time.
However, this is a long journey, we just concluded the day 3 of the preseasons and there are still more games to come, so OP might turn things around.

Let's just watch and keep watching here. lol

[stadus]

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-announces-structure-and-format-for-2020-21-season

• Dec. 11-19, 2020: Preseason games

OP should continue this experiment until the Preseason is over, we still have 6 days until the Preseason is over, and we still have 31 games to be played if my counting is correct.

[nasipadang]

Every match is different. I know that there is a lot of scoring in the last minutes because the parties have to catch up and thus force them to commit fouls.
Pre season matches are also interesting, but for me it is more like friendly games.

[kamadazje]

 Wow it's a good experiment but it will surely cost you a good amount of money if you are going to bet a decent amount in this experiment. Usually this kind of odds will depend on the performance of every team, if they are in good condition then hitting over will be an easy job for them.

So I guess the odds in your experiments will be 50/50 but I am curious also if what will be the result of your experiment as I will try this strategy if I can see that we have an advantage in betting always to over or to under.

[Natalim]

Day 4 of the preseason.

Indiana at Cleveland over 216 win
Toronto at Charlotte over 217 wn
 New Orleans at Miami over 218.5 lose
Dallas at Milwaukee over 224 - win
Memphis at Minnesota over 222 - win
Phoenix at Utah over 222 - lose

For the last few days, my winning percentage of over is not good, but we are just heating up, we could still turn this into a positive one.

good luck!

[harizen]

Are you actually putting up a bet on this experiment or a wild guess just to check your "what if"?

I'm not really into this betting for O/U during the pre-season. Even they are playing with no defense, sometimes (or should I say most of the time), the shooting percentage (FG %) is not that good resulting in low scoring than their usual.

Still have several days to bounce back so goodluck.

[chaser15]

LMAO, OP's prediction is just an experiment, it's like blindly betting on the overs in all games available in the preseason, and thus far, it looks like the experiment is going at his expectation as his winning rate is currently at 60% or 3 out of 5, but this is just the first day of the preseason, more games to come so it's hard to conclude for now.

But at least way better if there's a real bet. Not on all games of course as it's risky. The experiment with a blind bet is nothing because Pre-Season games are running only in a short timeframe. The next one will be next year and this experiment might not be good as a basis for the next pre-season games.

For now, the stats for OP is not good. Even everyone is not playing defense, not all are aggressive in making good points. Expected for every pre-season game.

OP still has a chance to make a good record as there's around a week for the remaining games.

[Botnake]

OP is having a good day so far, 4/6 games went to over, it's a bounce back for the last 2 games that under was winning. Continue this experiment, whether you bet on it or not, what's important is you share your stats as it could be useful for some bettors out there.

[Reid]

Day 4 of the preseason.

Indiana at Cleveland over 216 Won
Toronto at Charlotte over 217 Won
 New Orleans at Miami over 218.5 Lose
Dallas at Milwaukee over 224 Won
Memphis at Minnesota over 222 Won
Phoenix at Utah over 222 Lose

Quoted and edited.
You did well this day Natalim.  Bounced back from almost losing a lot of money.
I just watched one game out of all that and it's Mavs vs Bucks.
Both teams are on fire that is why the score soared to the roof.

I hope you can continue this streak. Good luck.

[Natalim]

I have a good day 4 of the preseason, thanks for editing it @Reid, and I'm okay with 2/3 tonight.

Day 5 of the preseason.

Boston at Philadelphia over 216.5 - lose
San Antonio at Houston over 223.5 - lose
Golden State at Sacramento over 225 - win

bad day 1/3 only.

[Natalim]

Day 6 of the preseason.

Cleveland at New York over 212.5 - lose
Chicago at Oklahoma City over 219,5 - win
Portland at Denver over 220.5 - win
L.A. Lakers at Phoenix over 220.5 - lose

Hopefully more overs today,  

[Russlenat]

Good luck on your pick. Would you mind putting a running percentage every time you update?

That would be awesome for us to see how's the experiment is going at a given date.

[Kelvinid]

Day 6 of the preseason.

Cleveland at New York over 212.5
Chicago at Oklahoma City over 219,5
Portland at Denver over 220.5
L.A. Lakers at Phoenix over 220.5

Hopefully more overs today,  

Too bad mate. I think the preseason never gives you luck. Almost all results are under which I think that players aren't so serious this time.

Anyway, that was only in 6 days result, I expecting more heat to come in the next days. They are actually making a warm-up here and no such a team strategy has been applied. It can be changed and probably make you favor then.

Well, goodluck mate.

[goinmerry]

Too bad mate. I think the preseason never gives you luck. Almost all results are under which I think that players aren't so serious this time.

It was already anticipated nor expected and it's the reason for conducting this test.

I think no money at stake here or only to few picks but OP just wants to see if betting on OVER will be effective during pre-season.

If the percentage is good, then anyone can refer to the result of this experiment in the following games or in the next year's pre-season games.

[Natalim]

Good luck on your pick. Would you mind putting a running percentage every time you update?

That would be awesome for us to see how's the experiment is going at a given date.

I got 2-2 today.

Thank you for your suggestion, I'm gonna make a running percentage in my next post.

Seems like overs are not really hitting most of the time, it's different compared to the last season when covid-19 wasn't still here, but still let's see by the end of the preseason.

[Russlenat]

Good luck on your pick. Would you mind putting a running percentage every time you update?

That would be awesome for us to see how's the experiment is going at a given date.

I got 2-2 today.

Thank you for your suggestion, I'm gonna make a running percentage in my next post.

Seems like overs are not really hitting most of the time, it's different compared to the last season when covid-19 wasn't still here, but still let's see by the end of the preseason.

Thank you too, looking forward to that, and hoping you'll end up this experiment at a positive note, under has been more consistent lately, I'm not sure betting on overs would bring a success here.

[Natalim]

Good luck on your pick. Would you mind putting a running percentage every time you update?

That would be awesome for us to see how's the experiment is going at a given date.

I got 2-2 today.

Thank you for your suggestion, I'm gonna make a running percentage in my next post.

Seems like overs are not really hitting most of the time, it's different compared to the last season when covid-19 wasn't still here, but still let's see by the end of the preseason.

Thank you too, looking forward to that, and hoping you'll end up this experiment at a positive note, under has been more consistent lately, I'm not sure betting on overs would bring a success here.

After Day 6, my win rate is 48% (15/31)

We will continue to Day 7

1-Charlotte at Orlando over 220.5 - win
2-Detroit at Washington over 214.5 - lose
3-San Antonio at Houston over 219.5 - win
4-Atlanta at Memphis over 224.5 - win
5-Minnesota at Dallas over 222.5 - win
6-Golden State at Sacramento over 226.5 - lose
7-Utah at L.A. Clippers over 218.5 - win

[coin.princess]

May I know how long does the preseason last and also may I know how much profit you've already made?
Was it positive or negative? Well is there a way we could use the result in preseason to the regular season and based the bets on this thread?
I really think we could do something about this experiment.

[Viscore]

May I know how long does the preseason last

The preseason will end in 2 days.

and also may I know how much profit you've already made?

OP has below 50% win rate, hence no profit, I'm assuming he is betting fairly in every game.

Was it positive or negative? Well is there a way we could use the result in preseason to the regular season and based the bets on this thread?
I really think we could do something about this experiment.

Negative , that's only 15 wins for 31 games.

[Natalim]

In day 7 I got  5 wins of 7 games, and that will bring my win percentage to 52.6% or (20/38)

Day 8 here we go.
 
1-Philadelphia at Indiana over 218.5 - win
2-Miami at Toronto over 218.5 - win
3-Cleveland at New York over 211 - lose
4-Milwaukee at New Orleans over 229 - win
5-Chicago at Oklahoma City over 221.5 - lose
6-Brooklyn at Boston over 224.5 - lose
7-Portland at Denver over 220.5 - win
8-L.A. Lakers at Phoenix over 220.5 - win

Will edit once the line is out.

[safari88]

In day 7 I got  5 wins of 7 games, and that will bring my win percentage to 52.6% or (20/38)

that's a great prediction 5 out of 7 well i'll would like to join you on your next prediction i hope i could take profit on it. i'll be placing 1mBTC for each game so it's 8mBTC in total.

[fiulpro]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

Great prediction! if things go well I think you can create your own prediction thread and I'll follow your tips in NBA totals. It's nice that the NBA now starts the preseason may I ask when is the start of the NBA season?

Hello it's not a prediction it's risk taking ,which does mean he doesn't really have a proof of well why he choose it ... So therefore I believe OP did slightly evade the loss and it could have gone down both ways.

In day 7 I got  5 wins of 7 games, and that will bring my win percentage to 52.6% or (20/38)

Day 8 here we go.

1-Philadelphia at Indiana
2-Miami at Toronto
3-Cleveland at New York
4-Milwaukee at New Orleans
5-Chicago at Oklahoma City
6-Brooklyn at Boston
7-Portland at Denver
8-L.A. Lakers at Phoenix

Will edit once the line is out.

Hopefully it would be good but I do think you should rely on more stable things instead of just going for luck though.
 

May I know how long does the preseason last and also may I know how much profit you've already made?
Was it positive or negative? Well is there a way we could use the result in preseason to the regular season and based the bets on this thread?
I really think we could do something about this experiment.

He already have given the profit and loss percentage if you want to see. Which is around 52.8, 20 out of 38 games.

Good luck on your pick. Would you mind putting a running percentage every time you update?

That would be awesome for us to see how's the experiment is going at a given date.

I got 2-2 today.

Thank you for your suggestion, I'm gonna make a running percentage in my next post.

Seems like overs are not really hitting most of the time, it's different compared to the last season when covid-19 wasn't still here, but still let's see by the end of the preseason.

You are consistent that's a given but I do believe you should change your strategy according to the situation here . But at the same time you did give people a good experiment to count on which might be used by many in the course of time. But then again it's a 50/50 chance that at any particular time you will win. Best of luck 👍

[Natalim]

Hello it's not a prediction it's risk taking ,which does mean he doesn't really have a proof of well why he choose it ... So therefore I believe OP did slightly evade the loss and it could have gone down both ways.

It's an experiment to be exact, betting all overs in the game, no exemption, and happy to see we are in the winning side as of now.

By the way, day 8 totals pick are already updated, good luck! hopefully another profitable day.

[danherbias07]

All "Over"?
Wow. I envy your courage for doing it. There would be no analysis or whatsoever so it is at high risk of losing.
Even though it's preseason games where players will not play that hard, there's a high chance it will end at a low scoring game.
How is it? Today is the last day right? I am kinda intrigued about the total profit or loss.

[Maslate]

In day 7 I got  5 wins of 7 games, and that will bring my win percentage to 52.6% or (20/38)

Day 8 here we go.

1-Philadelphia at Indiana over 218.5
2-Miami at Toronto over 218.5
3-Cleveland at New York over 211
4-Milwaukee at New Orleans over 229
5-Chicago at Oklahoma City over 221.5
6-Brooklyn at Boston over 224.5
7-Portland at Denver over 220.5
8-L.A. Lakers at Phoenix over 220.5

Will edit once the line is out.

Another good day, you got 6 or 8 in this prediction, wow! your experiment seems going to end with a profit. Per your last update you have " 52.6% " win rate, so with this win, I believe it will now increase.

[Russlenat]

All "Over"?
Wow. I envy your courage for doing it. There would be no analysis or whatsoever so it is at high risk of losing.
Even though it's preseason games where players will not play that hard, there's a high chance it will end at a low scoring game.
How is it? Today is the last day right? I am kinda intrigued about the total profit or loss.

Yes mate, the experiment was betting on the over only, "all over"
OP has not posted the totals last night but the result of the games was 2 overs and 1 over, in short, this experiment is a success having at least over 50% win rate.

[Viscore]

All "Over"?
Wow. I envy your courage for doing it. There would be no analysis or whatsoever so it is at high risk of losing.
Even though it's preseason games where players will not play that hard, there's a high chance it will end at a low scoring game.
How is it? Today is the last day right? I am kinda intrigued about the total profit or loss.

Yes mate, the experiment was betting on the over only, "all over"
OP has not posted the totals last night but the result of the games was 2 overs and 1 over, in short, this experiment is a success having at least over 50% win rate.

I can see that, preseason is still a high scoring game as this experiment have proven. So maybe next preseason we will be able to bet on overs all the time or most of the time and expect to be profitable. Anyway, I hope OP will soon update the record so we will see the specific win rate percentage.

[Natalim]

Day 9

Charlotte at Orlando over 224.5 win
Detroit at Washington over 211.5 lose
Atlanta at Memphis over 228.5 win


Overall score:  27 wins of 49 total games, which means the win rate percentage is 55.10%


Conclusion, this is a successful experiment for preseason only you will get 55.10% which will make you profitable as long as you know the right bankroll management. until next time, thank you.

[bisdak40]

Conclusion, this is a successful experiment for preseason only you will get 55.10% which will make you profitable as long as you know the right bankroll management. until next time, thank you.

Could have been more wins if there is a crowd i think, as the players are pumped and excited to show their talent in front of their fans especially the rookies.

I'll put this in mind and will use this strategy next season as this is stress-free approach in betting  .

Thanks for  this BTW.

[Natalim]

Conclusion, this is a successful experiment for preseason only you will get 55.10% which will make you profitable as long as you know the right bankroll management. until next time, thank you.

Could have been more wins if there is a crowd i think, as the players are pumped and excited to show their talent in front of their fans especially the rookies.

I'll put this in mind and will use this strategy next season as this is stress-free approach in betting  .

Thanks for  this BTW.

You're welcome @bisdak40 , you have a point, the crowd could give more energy to the home team, so they like to score more. Well, this upcoming season we will see some crowd in the arena, I think the vaccine is gonna be out soon, so that's our chance to see the NBA be back to normal again.

[Ziskinberg]

Great job @Natalim, the experiment is finally over, you have a bad start but you end up with profit. Good to see stats like this, I know other sites provides this information too but this is the first time here in our forum, thank you for the love of the NBA, as a fan I'm happy to see that.

[Natalim]

Thanks for all your replies and support on this thread, the experiment is over and I heard your opinion so I think it's about time to lock the thread.

See you next preseason.