NBA preseason betting experiment on totals.

[Natalim]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

[1714969982]

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[1714969982]

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[swogerino]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

Good luck on your experiment but I don’t think that for example if the majority of the games end with over in this preseason,it will also happen again in the next one.Many people read statistics in sport betting but are only disappointed when they see that statistics didn’t work out.

[Zackgeno96]

Was this a total over and under? I would like to see what will happen on this thread honestly I was no luck in those bets since there's a lot of things to happen most of the time I place bet on every total over and under every quarter but most of the time I lose.

[Natalim]

I said it here, so I will make one.

I'll probably make an experiment on this, just for this preseason if I will not forget it. lol

This is only for the preseason of this coming NBA full season. I will try to make an experiment to know if overs are really hitting more than the under.
No exemption, all bets will be on over.


Summary ;

Good luck on your experiment but I don’t think that for example if the majority of the games end with over in this preseason,it will also happen again in the next one.Many people read statistics in sport betting but are only disappointed when they see that statistics didn’t work out.

Yes, I know it could be different but I believe that most games will go over since this is just like an exhibition games where we will see games with lack of defense.

Was this a total over and under?

Yup!

I would like to see what will happen on this thread honestly I was no luck in those bets since there's a lot of things to happen most of the time I place bet on every total over and under every quarter but most of the time I lose.

Okay, follow this thread carefully, what I'm doing here is just betting without analysis, just bet on the over every time.



So here we go.

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

______
will update the total if it's available. updated

[Viscore]

Good luck mate, looking forward for a success of your experiment, game will start in less than an hour, so the excitement will start soon.
I have already place my bet also, more on the total but not all on over of course. 

[ingiltere]

Okay, follow this thread carefully, what I'm doing here is just betting without analysis, just bet on the over every time.

Good luck with your bets but I don't really understand your strategy on betting only "over", how do you pick score range and play over?

You know some bookmakers give odds for 200, 204, 208, 210 points etc. barrier in a game and you can select whichever you fit your prediction well.

Also over bet ranges are going up when teams score more points game after game, bookmakers have special statistical calculators to find the perfect range. If you only play over bets that means you bet on teams that will only make their scoring average higher day by day.

Will you select only the optimal over/under range?

[bisdak40]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

[kkaroul4]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

Great prediction! if things go well I think you can create your own prediction thread and I'll follow your tips in NBA totals. It's nice that the NBA now starts the preseason may I ask when is the start of the NBA season?

[Finestream]

1-  Orlando at Atlanta - over 224
2- New York at Detroit -  over 217
3- Houston at Chicago -  over 221
4- L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers - over 221
5- Sacramento at Portland - over 225

3 out of 5, no bad at all.

We have 7 games tomorrow and looks like most of them will hit the 220 points average.

Good if you have a spreadsheet showing your loss or profit mate so that followers of this thread could appreciate more on what you are doing.

Great prediction! if things go well I think you can create your own prediction thread and I'll follow your tips in NBA totals. It's nice that the NBA now starts the preseason may I ask when is the start of the NBA season?

LMAO, OP's prediction is just an experiment, it's like blindly betting on the overs in all games available in the preseason, and thus far, it looks like the experiment is going at his expectation as his winning rate is currently at 60% or 3 out of 5, but this is just the first day of the preseason, more games to come so it's hard to conclude for now.

[Natalim]

Day 2 of the preseason.

1- Toronto at Charlotte over 220 - loss
2-  Indiana at Cleveland over 217.5 - - loss
3-  Oklahoma City at San Antonio over 220 - win
4-   Dallas at Milwaukee over 226 - loss
5-   Memphis at Minnesota over 225 - loss
6-   Denver at Golden State over 223 - loss
7-  Phoenix at Utah over 223 - win

Good luck!

[Russlenat]

Another games, this time we have 7, let's see if you'll have a profitable day in day 2.

The first game is about to start in a hour, so if it will be over, that's a good start, for your pick though it's all OVER. 
Don't forget to update these games into your summary in the OP, this thread might consume pages, just for easy tracking.

[Hydrogen]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

My approach was to watch games and note which teams had a high scoring average as a result of them playing at a fast pace. And which teams had a high scoring average as a result of shooting accuracy. Teams that played at a fast pace were my go to option for playing the over. In theory their fast pace would not only give themselves more opportunities to score. The opposing team would also have more opportunities. A team with a high shooting accuracy wouldn't do much to help the other team hit the over, while a fast pace would. A fast pace may also be a more consistent variable in contrast to accuracy. Due to it being easier to maintain.

Teams that played at a slow pace were my go to for playing the under. As their slow pace would not only diminish the number of scoring opportunities they had. But also run the clock down, denying the opposing team of opportunities to score.

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

[magneto]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

My approach was to watch games and note which teams had a high scoring average as a result of them playing at a fast pace. And which teams had a high scoring average as a result of shooting accuracy. Teams that played at a fast pace were my go to option for playing the over. In theory their fast pace would not only give themselves more opportunities to score. The opposing team would also have more opportunities. A team with a high shooting accuracy wouldn't do much to help the other team hit the over, while a fast pace would. A fast pace may also be a more consistent variable in contrast to accuracy. Due to it being easier to maintain.

Teams that played at a slow pace were my go to for playing the under. As their slow pace would not only diminish the number of scoring opportunities they had. But also run the clock down, denying the opposing team of opportunities to score.

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

Definitely. Your analysis is on point. Pace (possessions per 48 mins or other measurements) and true shooting are certainly great predictors for point totals.

My only concern is that your method does not consider the odds. It is very likely, and even probable that bookmakers and other market participants have access to the same information as you and therefore the odds already have this information priced in as people favour over for teams with faster pace and accuaracy.

So in the long run, you don't really gain an advantage (theoretically, if markets are efficient) if you bet by this method; unless you determine for each game that a price is worth betting at.

[Natalim]

Day 3 of the preseason.

Orlando at Atlanta over 224.5 - loss
Washington at Brooklyn over 225.5 - win
New York at Detroit over 210.5 - loss
Houston at Chicago over 220 - loss
L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers over 212 - win
Sacramento at Portland over 227 - win

[bisdak40]

I used to bet NBA over/under totals.

~snip~

Anyways don't know if this info could be helpful. But I tried.   

Your analysis/input ^^ definitely help and that might be applicable to games in the eliminations. But as what the OP has said that this experiment of his/her is only during the pre-season only as these games tend to be high scoring due to lack of defense as what i have seen it.

So far we can observe that OP is at 50/50 in term of win and lose but it's not conclusive yet as we are only on the third day of this experiment. 

[Reid]

Hello Natalim!
Looks like your experiment is disappointing you.   Just kidding.
I actually thought it will be a successful one since it's "preseason" and players tend to make it look like an All-Star game.  
But what happened is they gave more minutes to the bench like it's garbage time.
So, this might really not work out.

What's the status?
10L 8W?

Damn, I hope I can join you in this but my kid massacred my phone and I can't get my 2FA in Sportsbet.  
Waiting to be repaired.

[Ziskinberg]

You are right @Reid, it looks like the trend was under, and it's been killing those who are betting on over most of the time.
However, this is a long journey, we just concluded the day 3 of the preseasons and there are still more games to come, so OP might turn things around.

Let's just watch and keep watching here. lol

[stadus]

https://www.nba.com/news/nba-announces-structure-and-format-for-2020-21-season

• Dec. 11-19, 2020: Preseason games

OP should continue this experiment until the Preseason is over, we still have 6 days until the Preseason is over, and we still have 31 games to be played if my counting is correct.

[nasipadang]

Every match is different. I know that there is a lot of scoring in the last minutes because the parties have to catch up and thus force them to commit fouls.
Pre season matches are also interesting, but for me it is more like friendly games.

[kamadazje]

 Wow it's a good experiment but it will surely cost you a good amount of money if you are going to bet a decent amount in this experiment. Usually this kind of odds will depend on the performance of every team, if they are in good condition then hitting over will be an easy job for them.

So I guess the odds in your experiments will be 50/50 but I am curious also if what will be the result of your experiment as I will try this strategy if I can see that we have an advantage in betting always to over or to under.