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Author Topic: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets?  (Read 12695 times)
Natalim
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March 05, 2021, 02:06:48 PM
 #501

That's surely an easy way to bet since most of the times the bet which has higher winning probability has more odds.
But personally I don't like this kind of bet since the risk to reward ratio is often bad in these kind of bets.
Bigger Odds have less rewards and the risk taken doesn't add up to the reward.
~snip
No you are wrong, the risk to reward ratio remains the same AFAIK, odds are lower BECAUSE the risk is lower too.
The implied probability of winning is the inverse of the (decimal)odds. With 50% chances of winning you'll have a betting odds of 2.0 With 25% chances to win you'll get 4.0 So when winning chances double, the reward halves.
That 2.0 is not really the actual 50% chance of winning because if you look at the other side, the odds will be like in this example.

TEAM A -2.5 (1.90) vs TEAM B +2.5 (1.90).. so if you want a 2.00 for TEAM, maybe you need to drop the spread to +1.5 which lower your chance of winning as well.

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March 05, 2021, 02:27:56 PM
 #502

That's surely an easy way to bet since most of the times the bet which has higher winning probability has more odds.
But personally I don't like this kind of bet since the risk to reward ratio is often bad in these kind of bets.
Bigger Odds have less rewards and the risk taken doesn't add up to the reward.
~snip
No you are wrong, the risk to reward ratio remains the same AFAIK, odds are lower BECAUSE the risk is lower too.
The implied probability of winning is the inverse of the (decimal)odds. With 50% chances of winning you'll have a betting odds of 2.0 With 25% chances to win you'll get 4.0 So when winning chances double, the reward halves.

You are right. I used the term "Risk to reward ratio" wrongly. My bad.
But what I meant was when the odds are high the rewards are low. The risk is lower too but when our luck goes against us we lose the whole amount on the bet.
This is where I don't like it since the reward was low yet I lost a bigger chunk of amount on the bet. And yeah this is bound to happen since it comes under the risk taking category.

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March 06, 2021, 12:12:39 PM
 #503

That's surely an easy way to bet since most of the times the bet which has higher winning probability has more odds.
But personally I don't like this kind of bet since the risk to reward ratio is often bad in these kind of bets.
Bigger Odds have less rewards and the risk taken doesn't add up to the reward.
~snip
No you are wrong, the risk to reward ratio remains the same AFAIK, odds are lower BECAUSE the risk is lower too.
The implied probability of winning is the inverse of the (decimal)odds. With 50% chances of winning you'll have a betting odds of 2.0 With 25% chances to win you'll get 4.0 So when winning chances double, the reward halves.
That 2.0 is not really the actual 50% chance of winning because if you look at the other side, the odds will be like in this example.

TEAM A -2.5 (1.90) vs TEAM B +2.5 (1.90).. so if you want a 2.00 for TEAM, maybe you need to drop the spread to +1.5 which lower your chance of winning as well.

Betting odds does not really tell exactly the winning chances, you can always increase the odds to get at least 2.00 so you'll just need to win 51% in overall for you to be profitable. Don't believe on that betting odds as bookmakers does not see the outcome of the game, odds are just created based on the opinion of the general public and most of the time they are wrong.

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March 07, 2021, 03:05:23 PM
 #504

For example, for me, the value of the coefficients is of great importance. I generally do not bet on odds less than 2.0.
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