nutildah's NFL late season picks

[nutildah]

I've been betting on NFL games on and off for about 10 years, don't have a great track record to share with anybody, but two years ago I called all 7 post-season games, including the Super Bowl.

Last year I didn't do too hot, but this year I've been doing pretty well, for at least the last couple of weeks. I started off the season cold and had 3 bad picks in a row. I took the middle of the season off, and have come back to 5 wins in a row. I like to think I do a little bit better late in the season but who really knows. This is not financial advice, lol.

Here's the call before the start of each game:

1.

Gonna take Miami at -10.5 this week for 1.98x, which I think is a good deal. I tend to do a little bit better toward the end of the season because teams that are really fighting for wins to get into the playoffs have more of an incentive to get extra points than those who have no chance. Additionally, if they tend to cover in the past, that trend should continue into the playoffs, is my rationale...

I also like Washington Football Team to finally hand Pittsburgh a loss.

2-3.

I put a bet in on Washington to win the ML, and a bigger bet to cover @ +6.5 (in retrospect I should have gone with +7). So if they just cover then I'll still be up a little, we'll see.

4.

I'm taking the Rams at -5 instead of -4.5 so that was the payout will be closer to 2x... Line seems to have shifted just a tiny bit closer to -5.

5.

I narrowed my list of 4 games down to one game that looks a lot better than the rest, and that is:

Tennessee @ -7

Also, not saying these count for anything necessarily but 3 of these 4 games have already won, with the 4th being played tomorrow:

Immediately I like the following for Sunday, but I'm gonna think a bit deeper about it before placing a bet.

Cleveland +2.5 (plays tomorrow)
Washington +3
Miami +7
Tennessee -7

The thing is I don't really have a "Pick of the Week" yet, but I would be most inclined to take a look at the Ravens/Browns game tomorrow and see if there's any good reasons not to take Cleveland at +2.5. For now I'm just setting up this thread for my first pick, which will likely be a Sunday game.

So yeah, since I won 5 games in a row I'm now an expert in everything forever,* and so I opened my own thread about it.


* This is sarcasm and who knows, I'm equally as likely to be a reverse indicator for betting as I am to be good at it, as a disclaimer. I really just wanted to open a thread to harbor my own picks. Feel free to comment and/or add your own NFL picks, for the remaining games, playoffs, super bowl, etc. No spammers or dufuses.

[1714821925]

1714821925

[1714821925]

1714821925

[1714821925]

1714821925

[btc_angela]

To be honest, I did tail your pick on Washington vs Steeler's game, 12/08. Got nervous with Steeler's was ahead on the first half, but that mistake was costly for Steelers.



And I'm glad I did, ML is already juicy as it gets.  . First time for me to bet on NFL and I will say that I'm happy with the results. Keep it up mate.

[nutildah]

To be honest, I did tail your pick on Washington vs Steeler's game, 12/08. Got nervous with Steeler's was ahead on the first half, but that mistake was costly for Steelers.



And I'm glad I did, ML is already juicy as it gets.  . First time for me to bet on NFL and I will say that I'm happy with the results. Keep it up mate.

To get that game at 3.2x is pretty good, better than I got it I think. Glad it worked out for you! I'd be lucky to get a pick like that again before the end of the season. Probably won't happen, but who knows...

Today's game (Browns vs. Ravens) is a bit too close to call one way or the other. I'm rooting for the Browns, personally. They seem to be on a roll and need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately for them, the Ravens need this game even more, and they've been playing pretty decent as of late as well.

So its too close to call. Some good games coming up next Sunday tho.

[btc_angela]

To be honest, I did tail your pick on Washington vs Steeler's game, 12/08. Got nervous with Steeler's was ahead on the first half, but that mistake was costly for Steelers.



And I'm glad I did, ML is already juicy as it gets.  . First time for me to bet on NFL and I will say that I'm happy with the results. Keep it up mate.

To get that game at 3.2x is pretty good, better than I got it I think. Glad it worked out for you! I'd be lucky to get a pick like that again before the end of the season. Probably won't happen, but who knows...

Today's game (Browns vs. Ravens) is a bit too close to call one way or the other. I'm rooting for the Browns, personally. They seem to be on a roll and need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately for them, the Ravens need this game even more, and they've been playing pretty decent as of late as well.

So its too close to call. Some good games coming up next Sunday tho.

Yes, as I have said, first time to pick NFL games and I'm glad I tail you when I read your posts in the other thread.

I just usually bet on weekends so most probably I will look for your tip again this Sunday and see how it goes, if I can get 2-0. Browns vs Ravens was a thrilling match, best one so far this year.

[nutildah]

I have one pick with a decent degree of confidence for Sunday and that is Miami @ -1.5. They have been doing relatively well the second half of this season and need this game to help their playoff chances... a loss here could potentially eliminate them from contention. Miami also covers the spread more often than any other team this year while the Pats are less than average in that regard. One telling sign is that the Pats only beat the Jets by 3 points whereas Miami beat them by 17... I'm expecting some of that difference to carry over in Sunday's game.

I feel pretty confident about this one so I'm actually upping the line to -2.5 and taking my bet on that.

The conservative version of the bet (Miami -1.5) pays out ~1.91x.

The riskier version (Miami -2.5) pays out ~2.02x.

[nutildah]

So that was a win... Weee.

This week my bet is a bit more boring, but I think there's a strong chance the Arizona Cardinals are going to beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. The line is already Cardinals -5 but I personally think that's a bit risky. SF has a decent defense but they are down to their 3rd string quarterback, and tend to score less points per game than Arizona.

SF was already on a cold streak for the last 3 games and are out of playoff contention. Arizona, on the other hand, needs this game to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, so they'll work a bit harder and be a bit more creative than usual in order to secure a V.

So my 2 picks for tomorrow are:

Cardinals -5 (lower confidence, smaller bet)
Cardinals ML (higher confidence, bigger bet)

You'll be lucky to get a ML higher than 1.4x at this point, but if you don't and you're somehow still feeling lucky, you might go with the spread.