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Author Topic: Who are the 1% of traders who earn with trading?  (Read 1029 times)
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December 14, 2020, 09:05:31 PM
 #1

There has been many research papers, and the statistics are mostly pretty sad:
•   100% of people start trading with the hope of getting rich
•   80% of all traders quit within the first two years
•   Among all traders, nearly 40% trade for only 1 month
•   Within 3 years, only 13% continue to trade
•   After 5 years, only 7% remain trading
•   The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year
•   Active traders underperform market by 6.5% annually
•   Only 1.6% of traders remain profitable net of fees in the long-run

Who are in your opinion these ∼1% of traders? Why they are able to remain profitable? Are you sure you are one of them, if you include taxes, fees, etc.? Wink

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December 14, 2020, 09:12:39 PM
 #2

I don't really know who these top 1% traders are but in my opinion, these should be a collection of the whales and the crypto investment funds (venture capital funds). I just assumed this up before these guys can make so much by just executing 2-3 trades monthly and if they do it right, they end up with good amounts of profits due to the fact that they use a truckload of funds to trade compared to the average trader who is just started out with $200 - $1000.

The reason why a lot of trades come short in the long run is because a lot of them think crypto is just a means to get rich quick and are impatient to see their plans and trades play out.

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December 14, 2020, 09:28:48 PM
 #3

We always refer to the whales or big boys who have millions of dollars to spend in the market in order to manipulate and influence how the market moves at their will, but that isn't always the reason for people who can't make profits, it is more about intelligence and strategy to predict the market.
Whoever can survive and last longer in the trading battlefield obviously have a great methodology and strategy to achieve the goal.
The question is what do 1,6% of traders do differently?
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December 14, 2020, 09:50:50 PM
 #4

The top 1% are those who don't trade at all IMHO. These traders trade when it is required - when the markets are going to make a move which is so big that it can make a huge difference when happened. These traders are from the big names who trade to make profits 'only' of any range.
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December 14, 2020, 10:15:04 PM
 #5

This is why many says trading is not profitable at all, well I guess based on the numbers its all about the risk and of course the skills of the traders. Looking at the long term time frame, if you still losing big money then trading is not for you or you just need to improve yourself and learn more. Traders must also know delayed gratification and don’t just think that you’ll get rich easily on this market.
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December 14, 2020, 11:21:23 PM
 #6


Who are in your opinion these ∼1% of traders? Why they are able to remain profitable? Are you sure you are one of them, if you include taxes, fees, etc.? Wink


For sure these numbers are really pertaining with Forex/Stocks trading since this crypto market is just a decade year old then we cant really say that only 1% is making profits
on this entire market.We might not have those precise percentage but for sure it would be more than 1% because if we do saw that there are only a few been making profits
in long run then we wont really be seeing much of liquidity.Just try to observe the entire market when it comes to moving price or volume then its hard to believe on such
claims.For forex then i might believe but for this market? No, i would really be more than that..

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December 14, 2020, 11:36:45 PM
 #7

People in trading just come and go, there will be newcomers or old traders who survive in the crypto trading industry.  I don't know who are those in 1% but probably they are those people who are willing to risk and spend more time in trading.  In trading failed, not all become successful, if there's a winner there could be a loser and that's how trading will work.

It might be the reason that there are always new beginners in trading that hoping they will earn money and thought that it is easy to trade and gain profit.  But the fact, that isn't, it is required skills and strategies before you will become a successful trader and probably those who failed can't able to survive and the choose quitting than to survive.
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December 15, 2020, 05:55:12 AM
 #8

Who are in your opinion these ∼1% of traders? Why they are able to remain profitable? Are you sure you are one of them, if you include taxes, fees, etc.? Wink
These are the most experienced traders. They have a different source of income that helps them to sustain their trades. I'm not one of them but how I wish that I can be part of that very small percentage that managed to continue trading all of their lives.

As a holder, I only trade when it's the right time, and probably this 1% have done day trading before to master the market for a long time. And after that, they've chosen to manage and become stable through holding certain stocks and cryptos that they rely on someday.


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December 15, 2020, 10:36:13 AM
 #9

Probably people who have successful or profitable trading strategies. Better to develop or use something that works consistently for you. If you find a strategy that works for you most time , you automatically become part of the few successful traders. I think they are few people who are consistently profitable in trading but am not really sure about the percentage

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December 15, 2020, 11:47:36 AM
 #10

they were definitely extraordinary people. It is even possible that a token maker or a person who is able to launch his own token is able to make all long-term tax payments in his trading. And I feel that maybe I'm not included in that part because I'm still a very beginner in trading.

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December 15, 2020, 12:50:17 PM
 #11

I don't really know who these top 1% traders are but in my opinion, these should be a collection of the whales and the crypto investment funds (venture capital funds). I just assumed this up before these guys can make so much by just executing 2-3 trades monthly and if they do it right, they end up with good amounts of profits due to the fact that they use a truckload of funds to trade compared to the average trader who is just started out with $200 - $1000.

The reason why a lot of trades come short in the long run is because a lot of them think crypto is just a means to get rich quick and are impatient to see their plans and trades play out.

Not at all actually. All the big guys and whales are just regular humans like all of us - in fact recently they OUTPERFORM the common retain traders Smiley You can see the data below:




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December 15, 2020, 01:05:57 PM
 #12

The reason why a lot of trades come short in the long run is because a lot of them think crypto is just a means to get rich quick and are impatient to see their plans and trades play out.

But I do agree with this point - the main reason why so many people eventually lose.


We always refer to the whales or big boys who have millions of dollars to spend in the market in order to manipulate and influence how the market moves at their will, but that isn't always the reason for people who can't make profits, it is more about intelligence and strategy to predict the market.
Whoever can survive and last longer in the trading battlefield obviously have a great methodology and strategy to achieve the goal.
The question is what do 1,6% of traders do differently?

Yes, I totally agree. So what in your opinion makes those 1.6% different? - it can be either institutionals or retail traders like everyone here.


The top 1% are those who don't trade at all IMHO. These traders trade when it is required - when the markets are going to make a move which is so big that it can make a huge difference when happened. These traders are from the big names who trade to make profits 'only' of any range.

Lol, yeah good point - as there was a quote in Chinese, about you don't need to join a battle to win - wait and see how your enemies kill each other and themselves Grin



This is why many says trading is not profitable at all, well I guess based on the numbers its all about the risk and of course the skills of the traders. Looking at the long term time frame, if you still losing big money then trading is not for you or you just need to improve yourself and learn more. Traders must also know delayed gratification and don’t just think that you’ll get rich easily on this market.

But skills can be learned, aren't they? I know that many people are too stupid or too lazy to actually sit and learn something, but I think it's greater than 1.6% of those who actually learned / mastered the skill, but still keep losing?


For sure these numbers are really pertaining with Forex/Stocks trading since this crypto market is just a decade year old then we cant really say that only 1% is making profits
on this entire market.We might not have those precise percentage but for sure it would be more than 1% because if we do saw that there are only a few been making profits
in long run then we wont really be seeing much of liquidity.Just try to observe the entire market when it comes to moving price or volume then its hard to believe on such
claims.For forex then i might believe but for this market? No, i would really be more than that..

What you refer to is the small sample of history for cryptos. And you might be correct with the current market - it's too new, too small, thus too many arbitrage opportunities (like few years ago even some technical analysis would make you decent money - like with stocks many years ago). But once you increase the sample, more people enter the market, more people try new / old strategies - the numbers will average themselves to 1-2% same with other markets, be it FOREX, stocks or other assets.



People in trading just come and go, there will be newcomers or old traders who survive in the crypto trading industry.  I don't know who are those in 1% but probably they are those people who are willing to risk and spend more time in trading.  In trading failed, not all become successful, if there's a winner there could be a loser and that's how trading will work.

It might be the reason that there are always new beginners in trading that hoping they will earn money and thought that it is easy to trade and gain profit.  But the fact, that isn't, it is required skills and strategies before you will become a successful trader and probably those who failed can't able to survive and the choose quitting than to survive.

Yeah valid point also, but just "keep trying and you will succeed" might not be very feasible for everyone due to personal capital limitations. I believe if you have $1m ready to go wasted, and you keep trying with $100 only, eventually you will master the skill (if it's about that). But those who succeed rarely waste so much money on just trial-and-error experiments. There must bee some other factor?



These are the most experienced traders. They have a different source of income that helps them to sustain their trades. I'm not one of them but how I wish that I can be part of that very small percentage that managed to continue trading all of their lives.

As a holder, I only trade when it's the right time, and probably this 1% have done day trading before to master the market for a long time. And after that, they've chosen to manage and become stable through holding certain stocks and cryptos that they rely on someday.

You refer to market timing strategies - they are well documented also and well researched. No need to invent new things there, just study quant approaches to market timing and you will get what you aim for with "right entry" points. But that's also not for everyone I guess, and not that sustainable. Once every guy around the corner knows how to time the market based on advanced strategies, - it will stop working.



Probably people who have successful or profitable trading strategies. Better to develop or use something that works consistently for you. If you find a strategy that works for you most time , you automatically become part of the few successful traders. I think they are few people who are consistently profitable in trading but am not really sure about the percentage

Once you find the amazing winning strategy - there's short period of time you have to make money, because advanced funds track inconsistencies and other funds, and can analyze what you do differently and quickly replicate your strategy. So eventually this strategy will be known to everyone and will stop making money.


they were definitely extraordinary people. It is even possible that a token maker or a person who is able to launch his own token is able to make all long-term tax payments in his trading. And I feel that maybe I'm not included in that part because I'm still a very beginner in trading.

That's the common misconception about traders. We are all special and extraordinary in own ways. What can be done by one human - can be done by another human also with enough patience, time and efforts. I believe it's not just about skills or being extraordinary.

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December 15, 2020, 03:21:59 PM
 #13

There has been many research papers, and the statistics are mostly pretty sad:
•   100% of people start trading with the hope of getting rich
•   80% of all traders quit within the first two years
•   Among all traders, nearly 40% trade for only 1 month
•   Within 3 years, only 13% continue to trade
•   After 5 years, only 7% remain trading
•   The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year
•   Active traders underperform market by 6.5% annually
•   Only 1.6% of traders remain profitable net of fees in the long-run

Who are in your opinion these ∼1% of traders? Why they are able to remain profitable? Are you sure you are one of them, if you include taxes, fees, etc.? Wink


That is really interesting.
Do you have a link or study to backup these numbers?

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December 15, 2020, 03:50:55 PM
 #14


•   Only 1.6% of traders remain profitable net of fees in the long-run

Who are in your opinion these ∼1% of traders? Why they are able to remain profitable? Are you sure you are one of them, if you include taxes, fees, etc.? Wink

1.6% of the winning traders are whales and whale followers.  Yes, im not kidding, this is true of any financial market.  That is why there is a very good saying in the financial markets, that the more money people have, the richer they are.

Margin trading, Futures, BO are all gambling;  The market and rich institutions are the bookmakers so your chances of winning are very low.
- I just want to tell the truth and hope the new traders here must be very focused when trading and never be subjective.  Getting rich by trading is a long project and you have to sacrifice a lot to become professional.  Trust me guys Wink
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December 15, 2020, 05:00:13 PM
 #15

I believe that the percentage of successful traders in the long term is more than 1%, ~ 5%. In the long term, very few strategies have the right to exist.

In the short term, the number of successful traders is much larger, especially in the interval of 3-6 months, sometimes their strategies bring big X's, but in the long term they cannot maintain profitability due to psychology and loss of concentration, in my opinion.

Who is this 5% in the long term? Well, if we discard all market makers, traders from hedge funds or banks, and take into account only retail traders, then these are the traders who have balanced risk management and money management close to the ideal. Although there is no limit to perfection. Smiley

Well yes, in short-term the number can be very large, but thats not representative of actual situation. I think there was a study also that had proven that a monkey (literally) can trade better than Wall Street trader, sometimes even outperforming him. But I doubt you would call a monkey to be a successful trader Grin To be in that 1.6% a trader needs to have persistent positive stable, net of all fees and expenses, returns. Risk management + money management is fairly simple and nowadays can be well automated, but even those people loose money. And hedge funds and instituions also actually - not all of them is able to earn decent returns (when they earn).



1.6% of the winning traders are whales and whale followers.  Yes, im not kidding, this is true of any financial market.  That is why there is a very good saying in the financial markets, that the more money people have, the richer they are.

Margin trading, Futures, BO are all gambling;  The market and rich institutions are the bookmakers so your chances of winning are very low.
- I just want to tell the truth and hope the new traders here must be very focused when trading and never be subjective.  Getting rich by trading is a long project and you have to sacrifice a lot to become professional.  Trust me guys Wink

I don't really agree with all. Yes, you said correctly that the more money you have - the more money you can make (not always though, look at Lehman Brothers among others), and those whales, etc. as I showed above actually underperformed retail traders.

Margin, futures, options, structured products, derivatives - actually very good source of alpha. I personally know people who got very rich by trading options. Yet not too many people can really understand behind the simple "call is a right to buy asset in the future". There are so much more into that. That's why there's less competition in that area I guess.

As for long-term in trading - very right. Can never get rich overnight with anything.

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December 15, 2020, 05:01:48 PM
 #16

If you think this way, then any trading is gambling, because you can never be sure of the development of events, but you can analyze, protect yourself from manipulation and distribute the balance wisely. And this all applies to both the spot market and the derivatives market.

It’s just that many people go into margin trading with a minimum of money and maximum leverage. It is clear that with such a disproportionate percentage of risk and profit, when the former is several times greater than the latter, people lose money.

In general, I very often hear about the fact that any margin trading is a casino and you will definitely be liquidated. Of course, if you use the leverage slider around the 50 leverage Cheesy

But as a rule, the problems of margin traders are the same as those of spot traders: they are unbalanced risk and money management, a strategy that has not been worked out to the smallest detail, and, of course, psychology. If all this is put in order, then the trader, in general, does not matter where to trade, on the spot or on the margin market. He will feel good everywhere.

I also agree with you. Yet with psychology & strategy & money management - there are many books, researches on this and now softwares that help with that. But people still keep loosing Grin

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December 15, 2020, 05:09:56 PM
 #17

How I see that is both institutional and retail traders / investors usually have:
1) luck: you cannot control it
2) skills (incl. strategies, etc.): you can learn it easily or hire someone who already got this skill
3) insights: usually illegal, but can make you super rich

and

4) instruments

With all the tech-hype, people might have misunderstood that "tech instruments" (fancier charts, AI, neural networks, prediction models, automatic SL/TP & risk management, etc.) will help them with profitability... Yet, I think (doesn't mean true or correct, that's why we are having discussion Smiley), it's about "financial instruments". That can imply access to the top VC deal directly (you as regular person cannot get in), ability to trade various types of swaps (you cannot also mostly), ability to invest in RSAs (revenue sharing agreements) / infrastructure projects (hard to default, provide stable and ultra-long term return), exotic derivatives, different types of structured products, and many many others. All those fancy software can be googled and bought fairly quickly, but for financial instruments - you just cannot Smiley

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December 15, 2020, 05:39:54 PM
 #18

From where did you take these statistics? I wouldn't say that only 1% of traders make money but without doubt, the actual number shouldn't be higher than 10 percent. Some people like me would say that trading is unprofitable, at least any statistics would prove that only a small percentage of traders actually make profit but on another hand, remember that if someone profits, it's because you lose! So, in this case it means that trading is very, very profitable if you belong to those number of people who profit from it because a lot of people lose a lot of money and a small number of people get them.

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December 15, 2020, 06:20:56 PM
 #19

Pretty good statistics and data sharing are reported. Although the rate of traders who earned a net profit margin in the long-term period is too low for me, I do not think that this ratio will be too high under any circumstances. On the other hand, in response to your question, it is possible to say that patient investors who perform technical and fundamental analysis in a correct, successful and definite way include that percentage. Of course, there will be traders who will win without any detailed analysis, although rarely, but I don't think the number of such people will exceed the number of fingers of a hand. That is why the answer to your question will be the traders who make accurate technical-fundamental analysis succinctly.
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December 15, 2020, 06:27:02 PM
 #20

I don't know who the 1% successful traders mean...
everyone ever profits and losses in trading but there is a hidden group *maybe whales which are compact selling when it must to selling and buying when it must to buying. *maybe the whale's group which is 1% successful in the trade

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