2021 Elliott Wave

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Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop.

On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines.

Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months.

you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II.

Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced?

Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction?

The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85%  —hence the average being -89%

If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above $20K.

Anybody's guess what happens next, but the following may illustrate the popular preference...?

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[josegines]

you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II.

Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced?

Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction?

The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85%  —hence the average being -89%

If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above $20K.

Anybody's guess what happens next, but the following may illustrate the popular preference...?

[/quote]

I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above.
This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k.

Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89%

Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%

I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99%

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above.
This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k.

Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89%

Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%

I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99%

Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive.

Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile.

A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024.
 

[josegines]

Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive.

Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile.

A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024.
 

AHA! the difference of BTC with other assets is that the prices will not deviate very much, for a long time, from the equilibrium price of the miners.

We will have to be attentive in due course to see what that level will be for the years 2022-2023-2024

[Since2016]

I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above.
This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k.

Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89%

Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%

I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99%

Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive.

Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile.

A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024.
 

Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own.

Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k?

My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding.

Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion

[josegines]

I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above.
This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k.

Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89%

Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%

I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99%

Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive.

Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile.

A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024.
 

Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own.

Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k?

My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding.

Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion

welcome, it's your first message, it's never too late to decide to write. I have been here for years and I could not tell you how to check the costs associated with mining(easily), however, it is a piece of information that you handle easily.

As for the next minimum it's a total mystery, but I think losing the 20k:

-it would be the first time it would happen, which would generate nervousness in weak hands
-a shock for many, but not the end of BTC,
-the level would be determined by that cost of the miners.

The reason for asking here is to know, from Elliot's point of view and the wave count, how a loss of the previous ATH would be interpreted, in this case, the 20k $

Some will think that we are weird, speaking of the next low, when BTC is making them rich with each passing day.

I see it interesting.

[Since2016]

welcome, it's your first message, it's never too late to decide to write. I have been here for years and I could not tell you how to check the costs associated with mining(easily), however, it is a piece of information that you handle easily.

As for the next minimum it's a total mystery, but I think losing the 20k:

-it would be the first time it would happen, which would generate nervousness in weak hands
-a shock for many, but not the end of BTC,
-the level would be determined by that cost of the miners.

The reason for asking here is to know, from Elliot's point of view and the wave count, how a loss of the previous ATH would be interpreted, in this case, the 20k $

Some will think that we are weird, speaking of the next low, when BTC is making them rich with each passing day.

I see it interesting.
[/quote]

Thank you for your response brother. I am a full time trader and my method is Harmonic Patterns & identify accumulation/distribution phases using Wyckoff. However, I respect Elliot Wavers and I do think it holds a lot of weight when looking at macro picture as we are discussing now. I guess why I have an idea for a mini cycle top and head down and back to 300k?

Firstly I wanted to know if it would be a valid count from EW perspective. And I think most of the bigger hedge funds are still on the sidelines missed the whole move and/or risk allocation is very minimal, since we have new institutional investors in 2019 (their first bull market with BTC) we could see something that we have seen in 2013? something of 'new investors' psychology type of move? Meaning it had done over 20x and drop 85% and made another high after within a few months.

thoughts?

[Since2016]

Also, I think your count on chart 5th wave is almost equal to wave 3 or greater which defies the rule of EW I think. 3rd Waves must be the largest out of all. I guess which is another reason I see a local top may be near 85k -100k (just a speculation) and down to 18k to begin a new Wave 1

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own.

Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k?

My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding.

Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion

The significance of 100K is psychological, not technical. Hence, would expect volatility at that price point, but perhaps not a significant or notable top.

So far, it appears Fibonacci-based price levels are significant; see the faint horizontal lines on the following chart:
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-bncblx.png

The above chart has drawn upon it the following Fibonacci-based price levels:

Code:

1. $9,756   : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.236%
2. $19,640  : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.382%
3. $34,575  : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.500%
4. $60,864  : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.618%
5. $136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
6. $219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
7. $379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%

—The first three price points have served as notable resistance/support levels, but have now been overcome.
—Price has currently run into the fourth level above, around 60K, and has currently been meandering there for the last 13 weeks.
—Once price sustains a weekly close >60K, the next fifth notable level comes into play, around 136K —which is near the 100K psychological level.

A top near 100K and a decline to 12K-15K would represent a CYCLE-I top and CYCLE-II decline.

At this point in time, the Elliott Wave model will require a revision if price falls below 22-FEB-2021 low of ~43K, but the bull market would remain intact. However, a fall below the 18-JAN-2021 low of ~29K would likely terminate the bull market.

Thank you for your response brother. I am a full time trader and my method is Harmonic Patterns & identify accumulation/distribution phases using Wyckoff. However, I respect Elliot Wavers and I do think it holds a lot of weight when looking at macro picture as we are discussing now. I guess why I have an idea for a mini cycle top and head down and back to 300k?

Firstly I wanted to know if it would be a valid count from EW perspective. And I think most of the bigger hedge funds are still on the sidelines missed the whole move and/or risk allocation is very minimal, since we have new institutional investors in 2019 (their first bull market with BTC) we could see something that we have seen in 2013? something of 'new investors' psychology type of move? Meaning it had done over 20x and drop 85% and made another high after within a few months.

thoughts?

Also, I think your count on chart 5th wave is almost equal to wave 3 or greater which defies the rule of EW I think. 3rd Waves must be the largest out of all. I guess which is another reason I see a local top may be near 85k -100k (just a speculation) and down to 18k to begin a new Wave 1

In terms of time...

Code:

PRIMARY[1]: The first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1148 days)
PRIMARY[2]: The first bear market wave 2013-2015 (413 days)
PRIMARY[3]: The second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1064 days)
PRIMARY[4]: The second bear market wave 2018-2019 (364 days)
PRIMARY[5]: The third and final bull market wave 2019-?

In terms of magnitude...

Code:

PRIMARY[1]: 1,178  points
PRIMARY[3]: 19,601 points
PRIMARY[5]: 62,700 points (so far as of MAY-2021, and still underway)

Hence, wave-3 is not the shortest in magnitude, and so wave-5 can extend without limitations in price or time.
 

[Bbirdy]

Here is a site that gives live production cost of BTC and other cryptocurrencies for miners: coinfairvalue.com

It is currently $11,740
The ratio Price / FairValue is 4.69 and historically the stall is above 11.

This is a good indicator I think.

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[hisslyness]

In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market...

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market...

Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious.

[yohananaomi]

In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market...

I think all bad news will always affect every movement and it's only natural that there will be an effect, in an era where social media is very active, everything will happen. it remains how many people believe the bad news, because bad news is not always able to manipulate people.

Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious.

agree, that there will always be an impact that will happen again, how strong the news can affect every individual, of course it is very diverse and cannot be equated, but indeed this is real and we have to admit it. but there will always be improvements if everything can be suppressed.

[hisslyness]

In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market...

Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious.

What the final wave 1/2/3/4 price range/numbers?

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What the final wave 1/2/3/4 price range/numbers?

Assuming that Bitcoin bottomed on 19-MAY-2021, the chart below illustrates Fibonacci-derived upcoming resistance levels, based on BraveNewCoin (BLC:BLX) price...

$133,889 and $136,151 and $137,332 —are a confluence of Fibonacci zones, with the average being $135,791. This price zone may be where "PRIMARY [5] → INTERMEDIATE (5) → MINOR 3" terminates..?

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[Kittygalore]

I hope that we are on the price to be able to ride this wave because that pattern is pretty convincing. Although, I am not in a rush for bitcoin to go up, might as well accumulate some bitcoin here and there before that wave happens.