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Title: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 16, 2020, 05:45:33 PM 2021 Elliott Wave
Speculatively forecasting the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle. Analysis is conjecture with sporadic fortnightly to monthly updates. Previous thread: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.0) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 16, 2020, 05:46:03 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201215_bncblx.png (http://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201215_bncblx.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 16, 2020, 05:46:23 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201215_djia30-1915-2020.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201215_djia30-1915-2020.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: exstasie on December 16, 2020, 06:33:50 PM Excited to see a new thread. :)
I see you've revised targets for your Primary [5] significantly higher this time. Good thing, I always thought those targets in the $30,000s were way too low. An order of magnitude higher sounds about right. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 17, 2020, 12:21:43 AM Excited to see a new thread. :) I see you've revised targets for your Primary [5] significantly higher this time. Good thing, I always thought those targets in the $30,000s were way too low. An order of magnitude higher sounds about right. Using BLX:BNC pricing, here are Fibonacci-based projection target zones for PRIMARY[5] wave... Code: $34,575 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.500% In terms of the bull market impulsive waves... Code: PRIMARY[1] = 1,178 points / 3,666,017% Since PRIMARY[3] cannot be the shortest, the maximum upside potential for PRIMARY[5] wave is... Code: $379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000% Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: exstasie on December 17, 2020, 09:57:51 PM Since PRIMARY[3] cannot be the shortest, the maximum upside potential for PRIMARY[5] wave is... Code: $379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000% Based on harmonics and extrapolations of the past, that's my view as well. Given the impossibility of predicting where blow-off tops end, and also how illiquid the BTC market is (especially during bubbles), I've settled on a range of $300-400K as my preferred scenario. I know the upper bound is slightly outside of the valid range for Wave 5, but I also think short term violations like that are possible under those market conditions. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: UnDerDoG81 on December 17, 2020, 10:29:33 PM I've settled on a range of $300-400K as my preferred scenario. I can live with that. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 21, 2020, 07:39:16 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201221_bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201221_bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201221_btcusd_2018-2020.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201221_btcusd_2018-2020.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 25, 2020, 01:57:48 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201225-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201225-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201225-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201225-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: sedactoo+04 on December 28, 2020, 07:35:14 AM Hurray! My favorite 2021 topic is ready, I was sad that you passed Elliott Wave 2020. Bookmarking this topic right away.
Considering MINOR 1 made a really small pull back, do you think that MINOR 4 will have a huge pull back to 0.618s? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 28, 2020, 02:26:23 PM Hurray! My favorite 2021 topic is ready, I was sad that you passed Elliott Wave 2020. Bookmarking this topic right away. Considering MINOR 1 made a really small pull back, do you think that MINOR 4 will have a huge pull back to 0.618s? Thank you, hope all is well. Merry Christmas & best wishes for 2021. Assuming MINOR 3 ends around $35,000, then the following may be possible estimate zones for MINOR 4 pullback... Code: $25,000: Fibonacci 23.6% retracement Not expecting anything deeper than the first zone. MINOR 2 pullback was a shallow sideways affair elapsing a month. The steeper the pullback, the quicker it ends. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 31, 2020, 09:59:22 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: JL0 on December 31, 2020, 03:38:53 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png) Thank you for your Post's. From $29K to ~$25K is a %13 pull back right ? You see any chance of ~30-40% pull back like in the last bullrun ?Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 31, 2020, 04:06:39 PM Thank you for your Post's. From $29K to ~$25K is a %13 pull back right ? You see any chance of ~30-40% pull back like in the last bullrun ? Expecting a 7% to 11% pullback. Since Wave-4 cannot overlap Wave-1, the maximum is allowable is a 17% pullback. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: TheLukeShort on December 31, 2020, 10:43:50 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/20201231-btcusd.png) If it continues into all time high area again, do you see this pull back invalidated? Could the pullback on the 4 hour chart have been the correction a couple days ago with the way it’s been moving? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: JL0 on January 01, 2021, 12:37:35 AM Thank you for your Post's. From $29K to ~$25K is a %13 pull back right ? You see any chance of ~30-40% pull back like in the last bullrun ? Expecting a 7% to 11% pullback. Since Wave-4 cannot overlap Wave-1, the maximum is allowable is a 17% pullback. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 01, 2021, 02:01:21 AM If it continues into all time high area again, do you see this pull back invalidated? Could the pullback on the 4 hour chart have been the correction a couple days ago with the way it’s been moving? It appears MINUETTE (iii) wave is still in progress. Once complete, would then still expect MINUETTE (iv) pullback. Followed by a final MINUETTE (v) towards around $35K to complete the trend. No invalidation to the proposed count at the moment. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 01, 2021, 02:08:04 AM Thank you for your prompt reply. I still have a little Fiat left. I would like to hear your advice on where to buy or where to place an order to buy. Currently expecting the uptrend which began on 27-JUN-2020 to complete around $35,000. At which point, expecting a notable pullback, which ought to serve as a buy entry point. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 02, 2021, 08:18:16 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210102-btcusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210102-btcusd-1.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 04, 2021, 12:27:58 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210104-blxbnc.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210104-blxbnc.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210104-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210104-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 07, 2021, 06:33:21 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: sedactoo+04 on January 07, 2021, 12:17:18 PM Thanks for the updates, as far as I remember, you were expecting a primary WXY wave for the major altcoins, I wonder if you are still going with those counts.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 07, 2021, 04:11:58 PM Thanks for the updates, as far as I remember, you were expecting a primary WXY wave for the major altcoins, I wonder if you are still going with those counts. Not tracking the Altcoins in detail, but suffice to say a rising tide carries all boats. ETH and LTC charts are below, heading to beyond their 2018 all-time highs... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-ethusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-ltcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210107-ltcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 09, 2021, 06:18:48 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210109-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210109-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210109-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210109-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 10, 2021, 09:11:37 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20211001-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20211001-btcusd.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 12, 2021, 02:30:32 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210112-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210112-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210112-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210112-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: CookieFactory on January 13, 2021, 03:33:40 AM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 13, 2021, 04:08:32 AM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low? Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows. The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback. Since this Wave-4 has already had a 30% pullback in 4 days; if it doesn't complete by this week, it ought to complete by next week is the current thinking. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: exstasie on January 14, 2021, 11:42:45 AM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low? Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows. The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback. The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes. Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up. Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: sedactoo+04 on January 14, 2021, 07:03:32 PM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low? Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows. The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback. The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes. Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up. Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative! Agreed. Actually I am in between Mid-June 2017 and Nov 2017. But as you said everyone seems to be very quick for the ATHs. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 14, 2021, 08:39:42 PM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low? Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows. The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback. The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes. Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up. Thanks for the updates, xxxx123abcxxxx. Very informative! Agreed. Actually I am in between Mid-June 2017 and Nov 2017. But as you said everyone seems to be very quick for the ATHs. Agree, still thinking the rise from the 11-JAN-2021 low to present is a B-wave. But if it exceeds all-time highs, then will have to begin considering the resumption of the uptrend. Wave pattern-wise, ought to be equivalent to 12-JUN-2017 to 16-JUL-2017 —a period of MINUTE [iv] pullback during the Halving. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 22, 2021, 07:12:50 AM Perhaps a final leg lower to complete the pullback...?
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210122-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on January 22, 2021, 11:28:26 AM Thank you for updating the analysis on this thread.
I was afraid that something bad happened to you (with the Covid hanging around it happened quickly) not seeing any more news about the old 2019. Happy new year Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on January 22, 2021, 02:15:45 PM Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low? The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback. Est-il possible que la vague 2 soit de type Z et que la vague 4 de type P ? La durée d'une vague P est au minimum de 2 fois la durée de la vague Z. Ce qui impliquerait une durée minimum de 42 jours. la proposition de ce type de décompte est surligné en jaune fluo sur votre graphique que j'ai recopié. Merci Is it possible that wave 2 is type Z and wave 4 is type P? The duration of wave P is at least 2 times the duration of wave Z. This would imply a minimum duration of 42 days. The proposal of this type of count is highlighted in fluorescent yellow on your graph that I copied. Thank you https://invst.ly/tjwky Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: JL0 on January 22, 2021, 02:26:27 PM Perhaps a final leg lower to complete the pullback...? Thank you for your update. What you think about Masterluc's idea ?https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 22, 2021, 03:10:15 PM Est-il possible que la vague 2 soit de type Z et que la vague 4 de type P ? La durée d'une vague P est au minimum de 2 fois la durée de la vague Z. Ce qui impliquerait une durée minimum de 42 jours. la proposition de ce type de décompte est surligné en jaune fluo sur votre graphique que j'ai recopié. Merci https://invst.ly/tjwky Yes, its possible. But so are a number of other scenarios. Best to anticipate the most simplest structure first, and then adjust for complexities as required. Once five impulsive waves can be discerned from a low, on at least the hourly timeframe, a call for a potential bottom can then be attempted. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 22, 2021, 03:14:42 PM Thank you for your update. What you think about Masterluc's idea ? https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gHUEkf5l-Current-daily-alarming-signals/) Too steep of a pullback. At worst, not expecting below ~26K. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on January 22, 2021, 03:29:14 PM Thank you for your wise and informed advice.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 22, 2021, 03:33:17 PM Thank you for your wise and informed advice. Guesswork at best. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't..! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 25, 2021, 03:41:50 PM Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...?
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210125-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: exstasie on January 26, 2021, 08:41:29 AM Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...? Would that be valid? At this point, the current structure seems to evade all simple patterns. I'm characterizing it as some sort of complex structure, like a triple zig zag or triple sideways (WXYXZ), depending what the next sub-wave does. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 26, 2021, 02:02:37 PM Perhaps a Wave-4 falling wedge triangle...? Would that be valid? At this point, the current structure seems to evade all simple patterns. I'm characterizing it as some sort of complex structure, like a triple zig zag or triple sideways (WXYXZ), depending what the next sub-wave does. An alternative simple structure which has potential... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210126-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: exstasie on January 29, 2021, 04:37:33 AM An alternative simple structure which has potential... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210126-btcusd.png Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily.... Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: sedactoo+04 on January 29, 2021, 10:27:47 AM An alternative simple structure which has potential... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210126-btcusd.png Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily.... Well Elon shilling seems to show us the power of the bullish engulfing :) Crazy days huh... Curious of both Exstasie and Steves opinions of the huge current cande... The monthly candle will be closing in 36 hours. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 29, 2021, 12:49:05 PM An alternative simple structure which has potential... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210126-btcusd.png Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily.... Well Elon shilling seems to show us the power of the bullish engulfing :) Crazy days huh... Curious of both Exstasie and Steves opinions of the huge current cande... The monthly candle will be closing in 36 hours. Despite the strength of the Elon Musk driven pump, the waves still appear to be corrective at this stage. Currently thinking the rise from the low of 22-JAN to present is a B-wave —which may have the potential to exceed all-time highs, but rarely. https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/20210129-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 07, 2021, 05:04:10 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210207-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210207-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210207-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210207-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 09, 2021, 12:26:02 AM The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events.
Thus far, the rally appears corrective, and hence may be considered as an Irregular B-wave. Perhaps either a bullish Expanded Flat or a bullish Running Flat is currently underway. https://cdn.fbs.com/img/analyticguidebooks/270/1549454071-fb5c81ed3a220004b71069645f112867_1200x1200_q90v3.png https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210209-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Astarjoe on February 09, 2021, 01:04:12 AM Quote The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events. While true, the second Musk event was perhaps one of if not the biggest news yet in Bitcoin's history. This groundbreaking corporate endorsement could have massive follow-on effects in terms of large institutional plays (what if Apple/Amazon). I think this goes beyond any and all TA and changes the game because there is no precedent for this. Since the perception might now be that Tesla "bought in" at around 38k, would that not have a strong support element if the price should dip back down as you are suggesting in your previous posts for some time now? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 09, 2021, 03:18:11 AM Quote The uptrend starting from the low of 22-JAN to present has been driven by reactional Elon Musk related events. While true, the second Musk event was perhaps one of if not the biggest news yet in Bitcoin's history. This groundbreaking corporate endorsement could have massive follow-on effects in terms of large institutional plays (what if Apple/Amazon). I think this goes beyond any and all TA and changes the game because there is no precedent for this. Since the perception might now be that Tesla "bought in" at around 38k, would that not have a strong support element if the price should dip back down as you are suggesting in your previous posts for some time now? Historically, there have been far more significant events; i.e. invention of automobiles, invention of flight, Roaring 1920s, Great Depression, WW2, 1987 Black Monday, DotCom Bubble, 9/11, U.S Housing Bubble, Subprime Financial Crises, Coronavirus Crash, etc and several flash crashes —neither of these events were beyond Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: sedactoo+04 on February 09, 2021, 07:02:01 AM So passing 50k will invalidate the flat count considering 1.681 level of wave A?
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 09, 2021, 01:47:45 PM So passing 50k will invalidate the flat count considering 1.681 level of wave A? A weekly close above the 1.618 / 1.786 Fibonacci extension of wave-A invalidates the Flat pattern.Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: CookieFactory on February 09, 2021, 04:58:39 PM On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.
While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though. To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Astarjoe on February 09, 2021, 10:26:02 PM On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create. While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though. To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis. I couldn't agree more. In a macro sense, the model seems to be very useful. In the short term, I think that this market confounds everyone and everything. But one thing is certain: this market cycle in particular will be most interesting to watch as there are now so many competing models and predictions as to how it will all pan out. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: JL0 on February 09, 2021, 11:06:42 PM What you guys think about Tone Vays idea ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErkxoQhXYAEdz2p?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 This is the old chart and his new 3rd MRI Top is near $68K Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 10, 2021, 01:53:09 AM What you guys think about Tone Vays idea ? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErkxoQhXYAEdz2p?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 This is the old chart and his new 3rd MRI Top is near $68K Using BLX:BNC pricing, there is a Fibonacci-based resistance zone around $61K... Code: $60,864 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.618% Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 10, 2021, 06:49:36 AM On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create. While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though. To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis. An interesting video you may enjoy: https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/ Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: CookieFactory on February 19, 2021, 10:37:27 AM On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create. While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though. To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis. An interesting video you may enjoy: https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/ Thanks for that - I had no idea there was an actual field of study on this. Are you aware of any discussion forums or have any other resource recommendations for learning more? It appears other than the original Elliott Wave theory, all material on socionomics is relatively recent so we probably can't expect a mainstream breakthrough for another decade or so (based off the observation that new science takes roughly 20 years to gain general acceptance). The sooner mainstream economics stops modeling humans as perfectly rational actors the better ;) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: CookieFactory on February 19, 2021, 10:41:34 AM Back in Bitcoin land, it was mentioned earlier but I'm in agreement the ~61K level is one to watch. My current operating assumption is it'll be a local top.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 22, 2021, 02:39:34 AM On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create. While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though. To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis. An interesting video you may enjoy: https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/ Thanks for that - I had no idea there was an actual field of study on this. Are you aware of any discussion forums or have any other resource recommendations for learning more? It appears other than the original Elliott Wave theory, all material on socionomics is relatively recent so we probably can't expect a mainstream breakthrough for another decade or so (based off the observation that new science takes roughly 20 years to gain general acceptance). The sooner mainstream economics stops modeling humans as perfectly rational actors the better ;) Similar and related area of study you may find interesting is "The Fourth Turning"... https://www.fourthturning.com/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-coronavirus-crisis-fourth-turning-theory-millennials-boomers-2020-6 Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 22, 2021, 02:42:16 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210222-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210222-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210222-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/20210222-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: LUCKMCFLY on February 22, 2021, 06:10:57 AM I have a peculiarity, I always analyze the market with the Wyckoff method, but when we are in trend either bullish or bearish, I like to analyze these trends with Elliot waves, so I have verified in many more graphs that it is true. I like the approach you show, I think a lot can be done doing the analysis to weeks and days using Elliot, it would give level 1A information.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 01, 2021, 11:35:34 PM I have a peculiarity, I always analyze the market with the Wyckoff method, but when we are in trend either bullish or bearish, I like to analyze these trends with Elliot waves, so I have verified in many more graphs that it is true. I like the approach you show, I think a lot can be done doing the analysis to weeks and days using Elliot, it would give level 1A information. Unfamiliar with the Wyckoff method. But would imagine the "Oversold/Accumulation" phase to correspond with the first/second Elliott Waves, the "Markup" phase to correspond with the third Elliott Wave, and the "Overbought/Distribution" phase corresponding to the fourth/fifth Elliott Wave.Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 01, 2021, 11:36:47 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210301-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210301-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210301-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210301-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 05, 2021, 08:37:58 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210305-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210305-btcusd.png)
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Wilhelm on March 05, 2021, 09:57:43 AM So dip to 40k and off to >60k.
Yup March will suck like each year.... ;D Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 06, 2021, 10:43:50 PM So dip to 40k and off to >60k. Yes, that is the current thinking at the moment.Yup March will suck like each year.... ;D A move beyond 53K from here may be a start for the flip back to bullish bias. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 07, 2021, 12:58:54 AM CRYPTO MINING STOCKS https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-arb.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-arb.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-hve.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-hve.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-hut.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-hut.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-riot.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-riot.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-mara.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210307-mara.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 09, 2021, 02:51:29 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210309-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210309-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210309-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210309-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 17, 2021, 08:53:32 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: MiningBattalion on March 18, 2021, 06:17:46 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-bncblx.png) As you probably know, Elliott wave patterns range from tiny ones that cover the span of just a few minutes all the up to patterns that span centuries.And the same Fibonacci proportions also begin to point to the year 2021 as a very important moment in financial history.That's what Elliott wave fans mean when they say that the financial market are fractal,A lot! For one, clear Fibonacci proportions begin to emerge between multi-decade historical periods.https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210317-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 18, 2021, 10:21:24 PM As you probably know, Elliott wave patterns range from tiny ones that cover the span of just a few minutes all the up to patterns that span centuries.And the same Fibonacci proportions also begin to point to the year 2021 as a very important moment in financial history.That's what Elliott wave fans mean when they say that the financial market are fractal,A lot! For one, clear Fibonacci proportions begin to emerge between multi-decade historical periods. Fibonacci-based resistance zones outlined here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/kkhby9/2021_elliott_wave/ Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 29, 2021, 04:08:00 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210329-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210329-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210329-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210329-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on March 30, 2021, 08:23:54 AM I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 30, 2021, 06:52:01 PM I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do. NOV/DEC 2020 and FEB/MAR 2021 are similar price fractals, see here: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210330-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210330-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on March 30, 2021, 10:19:50 PM I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do. NOV/DEC 2020 and FEB/MAR 2021 are similar price fractals, see here: I was talking about the Primary wave [4] Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on March 31, 2021, 03:23:21 AM I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do. NOV/DEC 2020 and FEB/MAR 2021 are similar price fractals, see here: I was talking about the Primary wave [4] That would imply the rise from the low of 2018 to the top of 2019 is wave a B-wave as part of PRIMARY[4] wave. B-waves are corrective three wave structures. The rise from 2018 to 2019 is an impulsive five wave parabolical structure. Character and magnitude of such waves are classic motive waves in Bitcoin. The 2015 and 2019 bull markets began with similar price fractals, see here: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210331-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210331-bncblx.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 01, 2021, 12:08:35 AM That would imply the rise from the low of 2018 to the top of 2019 is wave a B-wave as part of PRIMARY[4] wave. B-waves are corrective three wave structures. The rise from 2018 to 2019 is an impulsive five wave parabolical structure. Character and magnitude of such waves are classic motive waves in Bitcoin. The 2015 and 2019 bull markets began with similar price fractals, see here: Couldn't I have finished that B on Feb / 20, with a C miss? The fall of March/20 could be the C of a flat 2018-2020 When looking at the graph, it seems clear that the 2018-2020 correction ended in March/20 and from there, the price rise rapidly to exceed the previous highs of the flat, something common in the flat. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 01, 2021, 04:10:22 AM Couldn't I have finished that B on Feb / 20, with a C miss? The fall of March/20 could be the C of a flat 2018-2020 When looking at the graph, it seems clear that the 2018-2020 correction ended in March/20 and from there, the price rise rapidly to exceed the previous highs of the flat, something common in the flat. Your suggestion means both the (B)-wave and (C)-wave, and lower degree C-wave are all truncated misses —no such Elliott Wave structure. The below image illustrates your erroneous structure of three failed truncated wave misses... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210401-btcusd-1.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: drays on April 01, 2021, 07:12:08 PM I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] [4] at March 2020 could be a bit deeper than it should have been, due to the immense covid-induced panic at that moment. All the world markets dipped unnaturally then, and if we take into account the lack of liquidity in Bitcoin markets (compared to a traditional stock or commodity market), it is only logical that Bitcoin have dipped even more than typical liquid market. However that was very short-time dip, more of a wick on the chart. Still that MAR 2020 low is quite a bit higher than the low of 2018 (which is marked as [4]), so the structure is technically quite acceptable. Just my 2 cents. I am not an EW expert too. xxxx123abcxxxx is the one, and I learned to appreciate his technical analysis a lot. I am stressing the word technical, as we had few disagreements in the past related to long-term fundamental aspects. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 01, 2021, 07:39:46 PM Couldn't I have finished that B on Feb / 20, with a C miss? The fall of March/20 could be the C of a flat 2018-2020 When looking at the graph, it seems clear that the 2018-2020 correction ended in March/20 and from there, the price rise rapidly to exceed the previous highs of the flat, something common in the flat. Your suggestion means both the (B)-wave and (C)-wave, and lower degree C-wave are all truncated misses —no such Elliott Wave structure. The below image illustrates your erroneous structure of three failed truncated wave misses... In that case, if that minimum of March/20 is (2), wouldn't the (4) you have drawn be too small? (only 2 bars falling, compared to 37 in (2)) For there to be alternation, wouldn't it be more logical to see a triangle as wave (4)? Now I realize that the same thing happens in the previous cycle, the (4) looks much smaller than the (2). Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 01, 2021, 11:21:57 PM In that case, if that minimum of March/20 is (2), wouldn't the (4) you have drawn be too small? (only 2 bars falling, compared to 37 in (2)) For there to be alternation, wouldn't it be more logical to see a triangle as wave (4)? Now I realize that the same thing happens in the previous cycle, the (4) looks much smaller than the (2). The rule of alternation between wave-2 and wave-4 is not a compulsory requirement. Such alternations are more common in equity markets, as opposed to commodities and currencies —even rarer in other markets like art and house prices. The difference between wave-(2) and the projected wave-(4) is not 'too small' —there is no strict requirement that both waves have to be similar in time and price. The chart is set to logarithmic scale. If you were to change it to linear scale, then the projected wave-(4) will look 'too big'. 2018-2020 can not be a Triangle. Such a structure requires 5 legs A-B-C-D-E —see allowable possibilities illustrated below, of which none fit the price action of 2018-2020... https://www.elliottwave.com/Trading/~/media/8B5BF3353B4240AE9C720F2FB7CD9648.ashx Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 02, 2021, 07:01:22 PM In that case, if that minimum of March/20 is (2), wouldn't the (4) you have drawn be too small? (only 2 bars falling, compared to 37 in (2)) For there to be alternation, wouldn't it be more logical to see a triangle as wave (4)? Now I realize that the same thing happens in the previous cycle, the (4) looks much smaller than the (2). The rule of alternation between wave-2 and wave-4 is not a compulsory requirement. Such alternations are more common in equity markets, as opposed to commodities and currencies —even rarer in other markets like art and house prices. The difference between wave-(2) and the projected wave-(4) is not 'too small' —there is no strict requirement that both waves have to be similar in time and price. The chart is set to logarithmic scale. If you were to change it to linear scale, then the projected wave-(4) will look 'too big'. 2018-2020 can not be a Triangle. Such a structure requires 5 legs A-B-C-D-E —see allowable possibilities illustrated below, of which none fit the price action of 2018-2020... https://www.elliottwave.com/Trading/~/media/8B5BF3353B4240AE9C720F2FB7CD9648.ashx I believed that alternation was a fundamental rule. When I spoke of triangle in wave (4) I was referring to the wave of this Primary [5], which I see has drawn very similar to the one (4) of the Primary [3] However, it is true that if this Primary [5] is a parabolic movement like the Primary [3], a triangle would not fit much, and if a fast wave like the ones you have drawn. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 10, 2021, 04:08:05 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 10, 2021, 08:42:16 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210410-btcusd.png) I still don't understand some things about this count. Shouldn't minor2 and minor4 look? That is, to be able to join them with a line without crossing the price. The typical line 2-4, I have always thought that it should not cross the price. Could you clarify what theory you apply, so as not to ask yourself so much. https://carteraglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/24.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 10, 2021, 09:31:53 AM I still don't understand some things about this count. Shouldn't minor2 and minor4 look? That is, to be able to join them with a line without crossing the price. The typical line 2-4, I have always thought that it should not cross the price. Could you clarify what theory you apply, so as not to ask yourself so much. https://carteraglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/24.png Your diagrams illustrate the ideal perfection, originating from the world of ideas —the theory of forms, as attributed by Plato. Reality is an imperfect implementation of these abstract models; see here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_forms A trendline connecting the bases of wave-2 and wave-4 may often occur on a localised linear chart. However, it is inapplicable to use a rigid trendline on a long-term parabolic logarithmic chart —using straight lines on a curving chart will not yield a best fit. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 19, 2021, 07:42:00 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-ethusd.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-ltcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-ltcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 19, 2021, 07:43:04 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on April 20, 2021, 06:39:41 AM Thank you for your follow-up. I had also come to the conclusion of an a,b,c forming (ii) for the last BTC movement. Seems obvious so no great merit!!!
Regarding the LTC count, it is in primary [A], , [C] forming W, then X, then again primary [A], , [C] forming which movement of which lettering that fits into a cycle I? Thank you for your help with a technical understanding of your method in Elliot Wave. Have a nice day. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 20, 2021, 10:03:19 AM Thank you for your follow-up. I had also come to the conclusion of an a,b,c forming (ii) for the last BTC movement. Seems obvious so no great merit!!! Regarding the LTC count, it is in primary [A], , [C] forming W, then X, then again primary [A], , [C] forming which movement of which lettering that fits into a cycle I? Thank you for your help with a technical understanding of your method in Elliot Wave. Have a nice day. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) Overall sequence as follows... Code: CYCLE I = Currently in [C] of [Y] of CYCLE I Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 20, 2021, 10:28:22 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210419-bncblx.png) If Cycle I is really being developed, which would have taken 13 years to develop, how can II be? -How much can you correct in % -How long will it last, which should be proportional to 13? 3-4 years? My first sensations are that the bear market that could come if that count is confirmed, will be long and very hard. And it is difficult for S2F to continue to be fulfilled for the next halving, to see $ 1 million. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on April 20, 2021, 11:54:36 AM Thank you for your follow-up. I had also come to the conclusion of an a,b,c forming (ii) for the last BTC movement. Seems obvious so no great merit!!! Regarding the LTC count, it is in primary [A], , [C] forming W, then X, then again primary [A], , [C] forming which movement of which lettering that fits into a cycle I? Thank you for your help with a technical understanding of your method in Elliot Wave. Have a nice day. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) Overall sequence as follows... Code: CYCLE I = Currently in [C] of [Y] of CYCLE I Thank you very much for this clarification. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 20, 2021, 01:07:21 PM If Cycle I is really being developed, which would have taken 13 years to develop, how can II be? -How much can you correct in % -How long will it last, which should be proportional to 13? 3-4 years? My first sensations are that the bear market that could come if that count is confirmed, will be long and very hard. And it is difficult for S2F to continue to be fulfilled for the next halving, to see $ 1 million. Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop. On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines. Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months. So far, the Halvings appear to occur in the early stages of bull markets —about 1.5 years into a bull market. The next fourth Halving is expected in 2024. Therefore, CYCLE-II bear market ought to have ended by 2023/2024. Its anybody's guess if there will be a new CYCLE-III bull market...?! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on April 20, 2021, 02:41:49 PM Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop. On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines. Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months. You say that the bear markets have lasted an average of 13 months, we are talking about the two corrective waves of PRIMARY grade, that is, waves [2] and [4]. These waves [2] and [4] are bull market corrections that have lasted between 2 and 3 years. According to your count, at the end of the year 2021 the CYCLE-I wave will be able to end, which will have lasted 13 years. You tell us that the CYCLE-II wave can last 12-18 months: 1.-you say that the CYCLE-II wave is similar in time to the PRIMARY [2] and [4] waves 2.-If a 2-3 year bullish cycle is followed by a 13-month correction, which corresponds to 54-36% of time with respect to its impulsive wave, how can it be that a 13-year wave is followed by a correction of only 12-18 months, which is at most 11% of the time with respect to the impulse wave that you are correcting? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 20, 2021, 03:33:06 PM You say that the bear markets have lasted an average of 13 months, we are talking about the two corrective waves of PRIMARY grade, that is, waves [2] and [4]. These waves [2] and [4] are bull market corrections that have lasted between 2 and 3 years. According to your count, at the end of the year 2021 the CYCLE-I wave will be able to end, which will have lasted 13 years. You tell us that the CYCLE-II wave can last 12-18 months: 1.-you say that the CYCLE-II wave is similar in time to the PRIMARY [2] and [4] waves 2.-If a 2-3 year bullish cycle is followed by a 13-month correction, which corresponds to 54-36% of time with respect to its impulsive wave, how can it be that a 13-year wave is followed by a correction of only 12-18 months, which is at most 11% of the time with respect to the impulse wave that you are correcting? CYCLE-II bear market could be longer than 12-18 months. However, the next Halving is in 2024. Since each Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, the end of CYCLE-II bear market could occur by 2023. Elliott Wave theory prioritises price (i.e. the magnitude of a wave expressed in percentages and points) and structure first, and then time to quantify waves in relation to other waves. Waves are not quantified in relation to other waves by time —that is merely a guide based on prior character and form. Each individual market has its own character in terms of duration and size of bull & bear modes. For an example, take a look at the DJIA 30 index from 2009 to 2020... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210420-djia30.png The 2009-2020 bull market in the DJIA 30 index took 11 years unfolding in 5 waves of PRIMARY degree, thereby completing an overall CYCLE degree bull market. During the entire 11 year CYCLE bull market, there was no pullback or crash greater than -20% in decline. Then, in just 40 days, the Coronavirus Crash completed a CYCLE degree bear market, a -39% decline. Your idealization would have expected an 11 year bull market to be corrected by a bear market taking several years, not 40 days...! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 26, 2021, 06:46:05 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210426-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210426-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210426-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/20210426-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: dautuonline on April 28, 2021, 02:21:13 PM What is your price cycle prediction for May with bitcoin ?
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on April 28, 2021, 02:49:35 PM What is your price cycle prediction for May with bitcoin ? Would guess around $75,000 given this current pace.Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 08, 2021, 04:49:55 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-ethusd.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-ltcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-ltcusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-xrpusd-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-xrpusd-1.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 08, 2021, 04:54:33 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on May 08, 2021, 11:37:42 PM Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop. On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines. Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months. you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II. Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced? Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 09, 2021, 01:41:40 AM Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop. On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines. Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months. you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II. Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced? Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction? The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85% —hence the average being -89% If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above $20K. Anybody's guess what happens next, but the following may illustrate the popular preference...? https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210509-bncblx-2.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on May 09, 2021, 08:52:44 AM you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II. Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced? Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction? The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85% —hence the average being -89% If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above $20K. Anybody's guess what happens next, but the following may illustrate the popular preference...? [/quote] I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above. This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k. Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89% Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97% I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99% Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 09, 2021, 11:07:23 AM I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above. This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k. Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89% Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97% I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99% Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive. Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile. A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on May 09, 2021, 04:36:20 PM Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive. Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile. A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024. AHA! the difference of BTC with other assets is that the prices will not deviate very much, for a long time, from the equilibrium price of the miners. We will have to be attentive in due course to see what that level will be for the years 2022-2023-2024 Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Since2016 on May 10, 2021, 07:56:27 AM I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above. This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k. Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89% Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97% I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99% Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive. Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile. A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024. Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own. Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k? My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding. Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on May 10, 2021, 08:43:25 AM I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above. This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k. Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89% Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97% I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99% Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive. Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile. A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024. Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own. Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k? My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding. Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion welcome, it's your first message, it's never too late to decide to write. I have been here for years and I could not tell you how to check the costs associated with mining(easily), however, it is a piece of information that you handle easily. As for the next minimum it's a total mystery, but I think losing the 20k: -it would be the first time it would happen, which would generate nervousness in weak hands -a shock for many, but not the end of BTC, -the level would be determined by that cost of the miners. The reason for asking here is to know, from Elliot's point of view and the wave count, how a loss of the previous ATH would be interpreted, in this case, the 20k $ Some will think that we are weird, speaking of the next low, when BTC is making them rich with each passing day. I see it interesting. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Since2016 on May 10, 2021, 08:58:57 AM welcome, it's your first message, it's never too late to decide to write. I have been here for years and I could not tell you how to check the costs associated with mining(easily), however, it is a piece of information that you handle easily.
As for the next minimum it's a total mystery, but I think losing the 20k: -it would be the first time it would happen, which would generate nervousness in weak hands -a shock for many, but not the end of BTC, -the level would be determined by that cost of the miners. The reason for asking here is to know, from Elliot's point of view and the wave count, how a loss of the previous ATH would be interpreted, in this case, the 20k $ Some will think that we are weird, speaking of the next low, when BTC is making them rich with each passing day. I see it interesting. [/quote] Thank you for your response brother. I am a full time trader and my method is Harmonic Patterns & identify accumulation/distribution phases using Wyckoff. However, I respect Elliot Wavers and I do think it holds a lot of weight when looking at macro picture as we are discussing now. I guess why I have an idea for a mini cycle top and head down and back to 300k? Firstly I wanted to know if it would be a valid count from EW perspective. And I think most of the bigger hedge funds are still on the sidelines missed the whole move and/or risk allocation is very minimal, since we have new institutional investors in 2019 (their first bull market with BTC) we could see something that we have seen in 2013? something of 'new investors' psychology type of move? Meaning it had done over 20x and drop 85% and made another high after within a few months. thoughts? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Since2016 on May 10, 2021, 09:25:36 AM Also, I think your count on chart 5th wave is almost equal to wave 3 or greater which defies the rule of EW I think. 3rd Waves must be the largest out of all. I guess which is another reason I see a local top may be near 85k -100k (just a speculation) and down to 18k to begin a new Wave 1
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 10, 2021, 11:46:04 AM Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own. Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k? My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding. Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion The significance of 100K is psychological, not technical. Hence, would expect volatility at that price point, but perhaps not a significant or notable top. So far, it appears Fibonacci-based price levels are significant; see the faint horizontal lines on the following chart: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210508-bncblx.png The above chart has drawn upon it the following Fibonacci-based price levels: Code: 1. $9,756 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.236% —The first three price points have served as notable resistance/support levels, but have now been overcome. —Price has currently run into the fourth level above, around 60K, and has currently been meandering there for the last 13 weeks. —Once price sustains a weekly close >60K, the next fifth notable level comes into play, around 136K —which is near the 100K psychological level. A top near 100K and a decline to 12K-15K would represent a CYCLE-I top and CYCLE-II decline. At this point in time, the Elliott Wave model will require a revision if price falls below 22-FEB-2021 low of ~43K, but the bull market would remain intact. However, a fall below the 18-JAN-2021 low of ~29K would likely terminate the bull market. Thank you for your response brother. I am a full time trader and my method is Harmonic Patterns & identify accumulation/distribution phases using Wyckoff. However, I respect Elliot Wavers and I do think it holds a lot of weight when looking at macro picture as we are discussing now. I guess why I have an idea for a mini cycle top and head down and back to 300k? Firstly I wanted to know if it would be a valid count from EW perspective. And I think most of the bigger hedge funds are still on the sidelines missed the whole move and/or risk allocation is very minimal, since we have new institutional investors in 2019 (their first bull market with BTC) we could see something that we have seen in 2013? something of 'new investors' psychology type of move? Meaning it had done over 20x and drop 85% and made another high after within a few months. thoughts? Also, I think your count on chart 5th wave is almost equal to wave 3 or greater which defies the rule of EW I think. 3rd Waves must be the largest out of all. I guess which is another reason I see a local top may be near 85k -100k (just a speculation) and down to 18k to begin a new Wave 1 In terms of time... Code: PRIMARY[1]: The first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1148 days) In terms of magnitude... Code: PRIMARY[1]: 1,178 points Hence, wave-3 is not the shortest in magnitude, and so wave-5 can extend without limitations in price or time. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on May 11, 2021, 12:49:45 PM Here is a site that gives live production cost of BTC and other cryptocurrencies for miners: coinfairvalue.com
It is currently $11,740 The ratio Price / FairValue is 4.69 and historically the stall is above 11. This is a good indicator I think. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 16, 2021, 10:36:56 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210516-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210516-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210516-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210516-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 18, 2021, 01:38:09 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-btcusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-gbtc.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210518-gbtc.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 21, 2021, 03:44:10 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-xrpusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-xrpusd.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-ltcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-ltcusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-ethusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-bncblx.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210521-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: hisslyness on May 21, 2021, 10:32:07 AM In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market...
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 21, 2021, 07:58:11 PM In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market... Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: yohananaomi on May 21, 2021, 08:44:06 PM In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market... I think all bad news will always affect every movement and it's only natural that there will be an effect, in an era where social media is very active, everything will happen. it remains how many people believe the bad news, because bad news is not always able to manipulate people.Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious. agree, that there will always be an impact that will happen again, how strong the news can affect every individual, of course it is very diverse and cannot be equated, but indeed this is real and we have to admit it. but there will always be improvements if everything can be suppressed.Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: hisslyness on May 24, 2021, 08:10:57 AM In your opinion, are we still on track to satisfy Elliott Wave Theory? That is still a bull market... Yes, still within the parameters of a bull market. But a daily close below 27K would be precarious. What the final wave 1/2/3/4 price range/numbers? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on May 25, 2021, 04:42:02 PM What the final wave 1/2/3/4 price range/numbers? Assuming that Bitcoin bottomed on 19-MAY-2021, the chart below illustrates Fibonacci-derived upcoming resistance levels, based on BraveNewCoin (BLC:BLX) price... $133,889 and $136,151 and $137,332 —are a confluence of Fibonacci zones, with the average being $135,791. This price zone may be where "PRIMARY [5] → INTERMEDIATE (5) → MINOR 3" terminates..? https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210525-bncblx-1.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/20210525-bncblx-1.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 03, 2021, 06:21:41 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210603-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210603-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210603-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210603-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Kittygalore on June 03, 2021, 12:37:52 PM I hope that we are on the price to be able to ride this wave because that pattern is pretty convincing. Although, I am not in a rush for bitcoin to go up, might as well accumulate some bitcoin here and there before that wave happens.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: dautuonline on June 05, 2021, 05:58:08 PM Still together hoping for a new cycle of beginnings for bitcoin. The month is the month of new waves that make the market like every year. ;D
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 07, 2021, 03:22:09 PM I hope that we are on the price to be able to ride this wave because that pattern is pretty convincing. Although, I am not in a rush for bitcoin to go up, might as well accumulate some bitcoin here and there before that wave happens. Still together hoping for a new cycle of beginnings for bitcoin. The month is the month of new waves that make the market like every year. ;D A daily close above 40K is required at this stage to switch momentum back into the favour of the bulls. A daily close below 34K opens the possibility to revisit the 27K-30K zone, where the bull market would still remain intact. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 07, 2021, 10:54:05 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210607-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210607-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210607-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210607-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 10, 2021, 08:33:39 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210610-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210610-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210610-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210610-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 19, 2021, 12:55:53 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210619-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210619-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210619-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210619-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 23, 2021, 01:59:23 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-btcusd.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-gbtc.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/20210622-gbtc.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on July 22, 2021, 12:43:22 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210722-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210722-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210722-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210722-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on July 22, 2021, 04:17:12 PM Primary 5 looks like a more than acceptable outcome to me 8)
How likely do you think it is that we resume the bull run & reach new highs this year? Worrying times at the moment, would love to see what you think. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on July 22, 2021, 05:05:23 PM Primary 5 looks like a more than acceptable outcome to me 8) How likely do you think it is that we resume the bull run & reach new highs this year? Worrying times at the moment, would love to see what you think. Can't rule out a revisit to the 27K zone just yet, but a move beyond the 15-JUN-2021 high of 40K ought to confirm the the bull market has resumed. Barring a truncation, PRIMARY[5] at the very least ought to match the high of INTERMEDIATE(3) set on 12-APR-2021. So at a minimum, back to 65K is expected before 2022 —which is a 100% gain from here. Fibonacci-based targets for PRIMARY[5] as follows, perhaps either by DEC 2021 or MAR 2022 (BNC:BLX pricing)... Code: $136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786% Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on July 22, 2021, 08:47:13 PM Primary 5 looks like a more than acceptable outcome to me 8) How likely do you think it is that we resume the bull run & reach new highs this year? Worrying times at the moment, would love to see what you think. Can't rule out a revisit to the 27K zone just yet, but a move beyond the 15-JUN-2021 high of 40K ought to confirm the the bull market has resumed. Barring a truncation, PRIMARY[5] at the very least ought to match the high of INTERMEDIATE(3) set on 12-APR-2021. So at a minimum, back to 65K is expected before 2022 —which is a 100% gain from here. Fibonacci-based targets for PRIMARY[5] as follows, perhaps either by DEC 2021 or MAR 2022 (BNC:BLX pricing)... Code: $136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786% thanks for the update!!. I see you give a time forecast for the end of PRIMARY [5], on Dec/21 or March/22. Could you indicate how those dates come out? Thanks. Which of the two options you see more possible, a maximum in March/22 would mean a 3-month slower rise. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on July 22, 2021, 09:24:08 PM thanks for the update!!. I see you give a time forecast for the end of PRIMARY [5], on Dec/21 or March/22. Could you indicate how those dates come out? Thanks. Which of the two options you see more possible, a maximum in March/22 would mean a 3-month slower rise. Time length of the PRIMARY degree waves... Code: 🡥 Wave 1: The first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1148 days) The average length of the bull market waves is 1106 days. This would project the current bull market wave which started in 2019 to complete around DEC 2021. In the event of an extended subdividing fifth wave (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/5thelliottwave.png), an arbitrary quarter appended to this projection leads into MAR 2022. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on July 31, 2021, 12:39:12 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-ethusd.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-bncblx.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/20210731-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on August 07, 2021, 03:09:26 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-ethusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-ethusd.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-bncblx.png) https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210807-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on August 21, 2021, 12:06:08 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210820-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210820-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210820-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210820-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on August 25, 2021, 09:56:22 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210825-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210825-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210825-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/20210825-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 02, 2021, 08:24:51 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210902-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210902-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210902-btcusdpng.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210902-btcusdpng.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 11, 2021, 12:44:55 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on September 11, 2021, 09:24:11 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210910-btcusd.png) I see that you are inclined to think that the movement that BTC has had for 4 days is an accumulation, not a distribution. And it will end up breaking overhead, once that MINOR 2 ends. Have you checked the movement on a smaller scale to know when that MINOR 2 has finished? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 11, 2021, 10:29:07 AM I see that you are inclined to think that the movement that BTC has had for 4 days is an accumulation, not a distribution. And it will end up breaking overhead, once that MINOR 2 ends. Have you checked the movement on a smaller scale to know when that MINOR 2 has finished? Its possible MINOR 2 pullback is now already complete —i.e. it has met the minimum expected pullback criteria of around a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend. If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone. A daily close above the 09-SEP high of around $47,400 may confirm MINOR 3 uptrend is underway. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on September 11, 2021, 10:44:14 AM I see that you are inclined to think that the movement that BTC has had for 4 days is an accumulation, not a distribution. And it will end up breaking overhead, once that MINOR 2 ends. Have you checked the movement on a smaller scale to know when that MINOR 2 has finished? Its possible MINOR 2 pullback is now already complete —i.e. it has met the minimum expected pullback criteria of around a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend. If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone. A daily close above the 09-SEP high of around $47,400 may confirm MINOR 3 uptrend is underway. 47400$, very thanks! I believe that the conditions are in place for it to be sufficient downward, that is, everything seems to indicate that it has been a rapid fall to throw out some leveraged longs, and from the low of that fall, build a lateral accumulation movement for the next rise . Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on September 22, 2021, 08:47:23 AM If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone. I suppose we have some margin for that 41k $ maximum retracement, or do we have to recalculate? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 22, 2021, 03:18:28 PM If however MINOR 2 pullback is still progressing, then not expecting a move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, which is around the $41,000 zone. I suppose we have some margin for that 41k $ maximum retracement, or do we have to recalculate?Yes, there is always margin —exact science, is not an exact science! So far, the last two daily candles have close and open prices around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of MINOR 1 wave, which is around the $41,000 support zone... https://i.ibb.co/Xpshng1/btc.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 27, 2021, 01:50:29 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210927-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210927-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210927-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/20210927-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on September 27, 2021, 10:11:46 AM You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high? Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on September 27, 2021, 05:46:46 PM You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high? Yes, that's possible. A daily or weekly close above the 18-SEP high ought to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 01, 2021, 01:32:05 PM You see the possibility that MINOR 2 has one wave down, that is, a movement of 5 waves. In other words, when do we consider MINOR 3 confirmed? could it be topping last week's high? Yes, that's possible. A daily or weekly close above the 18-SEP high ought to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway. I was going to comment that we could be close to seeing that MINOR 3 confirmed, but I see that it is necessary to wait for the closing, even weekly, it is not worth just exceeding the maximum of September 18 in intraday. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 01, 2021, 06:33:52 PM I was going to comment that we could be close to seeing that MINOR 3 confirmed, but I see that it is necessary to wait for the closing, even weekly, it is not worth just exceeding the maximum of September 18 in intraday. Yes, a weekly close above the 18-SEP high would favour the bulls to suggest MINOR 3 uptrend is underway —although it does appear to be already underway given the strong daily candle. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 03, 2021, 06:27:45 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 03, 2021, 08:39:16 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211003-bncblx.png) this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections. Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1, MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ... Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 04, 2021, 04:29:36 AM this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections. Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1, MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ... The initial expectation for MINOR 3 is as follows, using COINBASE pricing... Code: $106,059 : MINOR 3 = MINOR 1 * 1.618 Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 04, 2021, 06:47:04 PM this MINOR 3 wave, if it is underway, could be strong, and rise quite a bit with almost no corrections. Have you calculated projections for this MINOR 3 based on the size of the 1? MINOR3=MINOR1, MINOR3=1.618(MINOR1), ... The initial expectation for MINOR 3 is as follows, using COINBASE pricing... Code: $106,059 : MINOR 3 = MINOR 1 * 1.618 It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference. At 106k, what I get is x2: Quote MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 ---> 106k$ MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 ---> 91k$ Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 04, 2021, 07:30:53 PM It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference. At 106k, what I get is x2: MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 ---> 106k$ MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 ---> 91k$ https://i.ibb.co/J2yh1Lt/20210410-BTCUSDT.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 04, 2021, 08:08:43 PM I will have done something wrong, I will review it.
Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 15, 2021, 06:38:55 PM It's funny, with Binance BTCUSDT prices, it turns out to be 91k, if I haven't miscalculated it. It's too much difference. At 106k, what I get is x2: MINOR 3 = 2 x MINOR 1 ---> 106k$ MINOR 3 = 1.618 x MINOR 1 ---> 91k$ Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more? When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%? Thanks! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 15, 2021, 08:48:36 PM Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more? When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%? Thanks! https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-btcusd_4hr.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 15, 2021, 08:49:25 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 16, 2021, 09:56:40 AM Do you think we are still in the first wave of MINOR 3 or do we have to wait for a correction to find out more? When the rise stops, if we are still in the first wave, how much would be the minimum correction of the second wave? 23.6%? Thanks! https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211015-btcusd_4hr.png I am impressed that you can already do a count when there has barely been a major correction, I suppose you make a reviewable approximation if we see that a major correction starts. That is, now the price could do fundamentally 2 things, it can break the previous ATH with little correction or it can correct something, for example looking for the 7 / Sep high at $ 52,700 (MINOR 1 Top), and then break the ATH I mean that now you can be reasonably clear that we would be in MINOR 3, but to know the development of that MINOR 3, I thought you would need a boost and its correction to be seen more clearly. Of course I don't have your skill to see those waves in MINOR 3. That is, it could be the case that yesterday a maximum was made and a correction of several days began, and it would continue to be valid for the MINOR 3 Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 16, 2021, 01:26:17 PM I am impressed that you can already do a count when there has barely been a major correction, I suppose you make a reviewable approximation if we see that a major correction starts. That is, now the price could do fundamentally 2 things, it can break the previous ATH with little correction or it can correct something, for example looking for the 7 / Sep high at $ 52,700 (MINOR 1 Top), and then break the ATH I mean that now you can be reasonably clear that we would be in MINOR 3, but to know the development of that MINOR 3, I thought you would need a boost and its correction to be seen more clearly. Of course I don't have your skill to see those waves in MINOR 3. That is, it could be the case that yesterday a maximum was made and a correction of several days began, and it would continue to be valid for the MINOR 3 The count is always subject to review. For example, if a wave subdivides and extends, then a wave-4 pullback could actually be a wave-2 pullback. Hence, the degree of a wave is always uncertain until a substantial countermove occurs in the trend. MINOR 2 pullback was -25% in size. Therefore, the expectation is that MINOR 3 uptrend ought to have pullbacks limited to sub -25% in size. If there is a pullback of around -25% within MINOR 3 wave, then it either means MINOR 3 is subdividing, or MINOR 4 is underway, or the entire structure is revised to one degree lower. In terms of size, there is an initial expectation that MINOR 3 is going to extend MINOR 1 by 1.618% in size —i.e. at least $100K in price. Given the aforementioned points, an estimation of the wave count can be attempted, subject to revision. Start with the 'bigger picture' and identify the notable countertrend moves —these will be either wave-2 or wave-4 pullbacks. And then you can start filling-in the gaps to identify and label the other waves... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211016-btcusd.png Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 16, 2021, 02:08:25 PM The count is always subject to review. For example, if a wave subdivides and extends, then a wave-4 pullback could actually be a wave-2 pullback. Hence, the degree of a wave is always uncertain until a substantial countermove occurs in the trend. MINOR 2 pullback was -25% in size. Therefore, the expectation is that MINOR 3 uptrend ought to have pullbacks limited to sub -25% in size. If there is a pullback of around -25% within MINOR 3 wave, then it either means MINOR 3 is subdividing, or MINOR 4 is underway, or the entire structure is revised to one degree lower. In terms of size, there is an initial expectation that MINOR 3 is going to extend MINOR 1 by 1.618% in size —i.e. at least $100K in price. Given the aforementioned points, an estimation of the wave count can be attempted, subject to revision. Start with the 'bigger picture' and identify the notable countertrend moves —these will be either wave-2 or wave-4 pullbacks. And then you can start filling-in the gaps to identify and label the other waves... It seems that if we are doing (5), it will end in December(only 2 months), it does not seem to last any longer. But would there be chances that we are doing (3) instead of (5), and thus the top of this bull cycle will be delayed to March-April / 2022? I understand that as you have the count no, but I imagine that there could be possibilities to redo the count. I am thinking that we may be close to a very important moment, nothing less than we could have the new ATH in just 2 months. It is too close!!! :o Thanks for your explanation! Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 16, 2021, 02:39:56 PM It seems that if we are doing (5), it will end in December(only 2 months), it does not seem to last any longer. But would there be chances that we are doing (3) instead of (5), and thus the top of this bull cycle will be delayed to March-April / 2022? I understand that as you have the count no, but I imagine that there could be possibilities to redo the count. I am thinking that we may be close to a very important moment, nothing less than we could have the new ATH in just 2 months. It is too close!!! :o Thanks for your explanation! Current estimation is for the PRIMARY[5] bull market to end either by around Christmas 2021 or around Easter 2022, with initial expectations of around 136K or 220K as a top. Your suggestion of (5) actually being a (3) would look like the following chart... https://i.ibb.co/LYmSQSD/BTCUSD.png (https://i.ibb.co/LYmSQSD/BTCUSD.png) Such an extended count would take the PRIMARY[5] bull market well beyond the Halving in 2024. Historically, there has never been a Halving at all-time highs during a core bull market. Is it possible? Sure. However, best to eliminate the more conservative counts first before jumping ahead. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 16, 2021, 05:30:12 PM It seems that if we are doing (5), it will end in December(only 2 months), it does not seem to last any longer. But would there be chances that we are doing (3) instead of (5), and thus the top of this bull cycle will be delayed to March-April / 2022? I understand that as you have the count no, but I imagine that there could be possibilities to redo the count. I am thinking that we may be close to a very important moment, nothing less than we could have the new ATH in just 2 months. It is too close!!! :o Thanks for your explanation! Current estimation is for the PRIMARY[5] bull market to end either by around Christmas 2021 or around Easter 2022, with initial expectations of around 136K or 220K as a top. Your suggestion of (5) actually being a (3) would look like the following chart... https://i.ibb.co/LYmSQSD/BTCUSD.png (https://i.ibb.co/LYmSQSD/BTCUSD.png) Such an extended count would take the PRIMARY[5] bull market well beyond the Halving in 2024. Historically, there has never been a Halving at all-time highs during a core bull market. Is it possible? Sure. However, best to eliminate the more conservative counts first before jumping ahead. I was referring to this other (3), but I am not an expert on Elliot, I was only thinking about the possibilities that the climb would last until spring. I suppose that a possibility that we have a little more than 2 months of rise, is that the waves that remain, are extended. I suppose that the count that I have put in the image could be confirmed, if after reaching the predicted (5) and correcting, the price again exceeds the level of that predicted (5) https://i.imgur.com/RNpPMdP.jpg Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 16, 2021, 06:42:18 PM I was referring to this other (3), but I am not an expert on Elliot, I was only thinking about the possibilities that the climb would last until spring. I suppose that a possibility that we have a little more than 2 months of rise, is that the waves that remain, are extended. I suppose that the count that I have put in the image could be confirmed, if after reaching the predicted (5) and correcting, the price again exceeds the level of that predicted (5) https://i.imgur.com/RNpPMdP.jpg Your suggestion would look like the following chart... https://i.ibb.co/NpDV6QV/btcusd.png (https://i.ibb.co/NpDV6QV/btcusd.png) Unlikely for the following reasons... —It is rare for MINOR 1 wave to be the largest. It would mean MINOR 3 and MINOR 5 would have to be successively smaller since the third wave in a sequence cannot be the shortest. —The proposed MINOR 2 pullback is almost equivalent in magnitude to the INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback. Therefore, the proposed MINOR 2 pullback is better suited to be considered as INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback. The most conservative and simplest counts are considered first until eliminated. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 16, 2021, 08:45:16 PM Your suggestion would look like the following chart... https://i.ibb.co/NpDV6QV/btcusd.png (https://i.ibb.co/NpDV6QV/btcusd.png) Unlikely for the following reasons... —It is rare for MINOR 1 wave to be the largest. It would mean MINOR 3 and MINOR 5 would have to be successively smaller since the third wave in a sequence cannot be the shortest. —The proposed MINOR 2 pullback is almost equivalent in magnitude to the INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback. Therefore, the proposed MINOR 2 pullback is better suited to be considered as INTERMEDIATE(4) pullback. The most conservative and simplest counts are considered first until eliminated. Okay, I had not understood that you were talking about Easter, so it coincides with what I am saying, that right now you see the end of this bullish cycle on Dec/21 or on Easter/22 (April/22) But the count you have drawn ends on Dec/21, if it were delayed it would be because there would be some corrective wave that lasts longer than expected right now. Or maybe because some impulsive wave extended. We will have to see the evolution week by week, to try to clear the doubt of whether the end will be in December or later. Or maybe we won't know when December arrives, but weeks later. If it is true that if in December we see an explosive wave that rises too vertical, it would be a sign of the end. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 16, 2021, 09:07:57 PM Okay, I had not understood that you were talking about Easter, so it coincides with what I am saying, that right now you see the end of this bullish cycle on Dec/21 or on Easter/22 (April/22) But the count you have drawn ends on Dec/21, if it were delayed it would be because there would be some corrective wave that lasts longer than expected right now. Or maybe because some impulsive wave extended. We will have to see the evolution week by week, to try to clear the doubt of whether the end will be in December or later. Or maybe we won't know when December arrives, but weeks later. If it is true that if in December we see an explosive wave that rises too vertical, it would be a sign of the end. The simplest and conservative outlook of this Elliott Wave model suggests an end to the bull market either around 136K or around 220K. Perhaps either around Christmas 2021 or around Easter 2022. This means... —the bull market may end around 136K, around Christmas 2021; or, —the bull market may end around 220K, around Christmas 2021; or, —the bull market may end around 220K, around Easter 2022 or earlier. The chart simply illustrates the 'average' of the aforementioned scenarios. Who knows, some are expecting 500K next year! As and when the waves develop, the projections shall be adjusted. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: Bbirdy on October 18, 2021, 07:43:56 AM @ josegines,
thank you for your questions, and @ xxxx123abcxxxx many thanks for your answers it is very instructive Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on October 18, 2021, 09:02:55 AM @ josegines, thank you for your questions, and @ xxxx123abcxxxx many thanks for your answers it is very instructive I have to say that @xxxx123abcxxxx has a lot of patience to answer so many questions. I even asked him long ago what the subsequent bear market would be like, how long and at what price level it could go. It will be good to take it into account in a few months, when it is clear that we have already made the top. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 18, 2021, 05:26:10 PM I have to say that @xxxx123abcxxxx has a lot of patience to answer so many questions. I even asked him long ago what the subsequent bear market would be like, how long and at what price level it could go. It will be good to take it into account in a few months, when it is clear that we have already made the top. The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85% —hence the average being -89% If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above the 2017 high. Anybody's guess what happens, perhaps Bitcoin ceases to exist? The following may illustrate the popular opinion of a perpetual market... https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211018-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211018-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 29, 2021, 02:14:34 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211029-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211029-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211029-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/10/20211029-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on November 06, 2021, 12:13:14 PM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211106-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211106-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211106-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211106-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: the ghabbar on November 06, 2021, 03:44:14 PM 2021 Elliott Wave Subjective in the general view is still in the speculation stage, meaning that prices are not completely correct, analysis is a prediction made based on previous experience, but many people are starting to understand how to predict correctly, although sometimes predictions are not all correct with what actually happened, according to the graph of what what I see from the right is more stable than the left, maybe by the end of 2021 everything will look good.
Speculatively forecasting the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle. Analysis is conjecture with sporadic fortnightly to monthly updates. Previous thread: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.0) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on November 09, 2021, 09:34:53 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211109-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211109-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211109-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211109-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on November 17, 2021, 02:46:27 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211117-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211117-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211117-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/20211117-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on December 05, 2021, 02:53:19 AM https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211205-bncblx.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211205-bncblx.png)
https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211205-btcusd.png (https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211205-btcusd.png) Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: josegines on December 05, 2021, 05:25:05 AM .. if so, the MINOR-2 wave MINUTE [iii] is going to be spectacular, I could probably do a x2 or more Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: g-uid on December 07, 2021, 03:15:51 PM .. if so, the MINOR-2 wave MINUTE [iii] is going to be spectacular, I could probably do a x2 or more from your mouth to god's ears. Title: Re: 2021 Elliott Wave Post by: xxxx123abcxxxx on January 01, 2022, 06:06:52 PM New thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.0
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