Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin

[fillippone]

Morgan Stanley:

Why Crypto Is Coming Out of the Shadows

If you were trying to doom a newly invented currency to irrelevance, naming it “cryptocurrency”1 would have been a crafty first step. “Crypto” means hidden or secret, and often describes a target of popular suspicion and fear, as in crypto-fascist or crypto-communist. But now, despite the jitters natural in a global pandemic, cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining popular support as alternatives to gold (a store of value) and the dollar (as a means of payment).

Nice read.
Not very technical, but I guess ti is written for their general customers, rather than their agents.

[1714912377]

1714912377

[fillippone]

JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Did Q4 rebalancing flows materialise?
9 February 2021

• While bitcoin got another boost with Tesla’s announcement this week, the 8% allocation of its cash reserves to bitcoin is unlikely to be followed by more mainstream corporates.
• Irrespective of how many corporates eventually follow Tesla’s example, there is no doubt that this week’s announcement changed abruptly the near-term trajectory for bitcoin by bolstering speculative institutional flows via bitcoin futures as well as retail flows.
• How sustained this week’s price surge becomes would depend in our opinion on whether less speculative institutional flows like those behind the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust follow suit.

Speculative bitcoin flows surge following Tesla’s announcement 

• Tesla’s announcement this week that it has invested $1.5bn in bitcoin or 8% of its corporate cash reserves surprised markets by the magnitude of the purchases and re-invigorated expectations that other corporates will follow with their cash reserves. Although we are skeptical that Tesla is a typical corporate and its example will be followed by more mainstream corporates, we recognize that Tesla’s announcement broadens corporate sponsorship, after a gap of five months with no corporate treasury announcements beyond MicroStrategy and Square last August. In our opinion, the main issue with the idea that mainstream corporate treasures will follow the example of Tesla is the volatility of bitcoin. The typical portfolio of a corporate treasury consists of bank deposits, money market funds and short-dated bonds. As a result, the annualized vol of a typical corporate treasury portfolio is around 1%. This implies that even small allocations of 1% to bitcoin would cause a big increase in the volatility of the overall portfolio. For example, if a corporate treasurer allocates 1% of her 1% vol portfolio to bitcoin, the overall portfolio volatility will rise from 1% to 1.3%, or more than a one-quarter increase. This is because of the large 80% annualized vol of bitcoin. 
• Irrespective of how many corporates eventually follow Tesla’s example, there is no doubt that this week’s announcement changed abruptly the nearterm trajectory for bitcoin by bolstering inflows and by helping bitcoin to break out above $40k. This reduces one downside risk that we saw previously with bitcoin, i.e. the idea that if its price fails to break out above $40k, the momentum signals would keep decaying till the end of March, inducing further unwinding by momentum traders. The opposite is now happening. With bitcoin breaking out above $40k, momentum traders are forced to amplify the current upmove by rebuilding their long bitcoin futures positions. 
  
• Indeed, our position proxy based on CME bitcoin futures, the preferred vehicle of momentum traders and other speculative investors, saw a sharp almost $1bn increase this week (Figure 4) pointing to intense buildup of futures positions. As a reminder to our readers, to infer positioning in bitcoin futures, we use our open interest position proxy methodology that we also apply to other futures contracts, where we look at the cumulative weekly absolute changes in the open interest multiplied by the sign of the futures price change every week. The rationale behind this position proxy is that when there is a price increase, the net long position of spec investors increases also with the magnitude of the increase determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls, as the net long position can increase either via fresh longs (increase in open interest) or a reduction of previous shorts (reduction in open interest). And vice versa. When there is a price decrease, the net long position of spec investors decreases also, with the magnitude of the decrease determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls, as the net long position can decrease either via fresh shorts (increase in open interest) or reduction of previous longs (reduction in open interest).
  
  

	Figure 4

• However, our second proxy for the institutional flow into bitcoin, i.e. the flow into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has not exhibited a similarly strong impulse. Figure 5 shows that the 4-week flow pace in GBTC looks more subdued close to $300m per week relative to the torrid $500m per week pace seen in December. And this makes the current backdrop for bitcoin somewhat different to last November/ December when its price was hovering just below $20k. At the time, we had argued that if the bitcoin price had failed to break out above $20k, the momentum signals would have naturally decayed until the end of January creating negative dynamics for bitcoin. Luckily, at the time the institutional flow impulse behind the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust had accelerated by so much in December that bitcoin managed to break out above $20k inducing further position build up rather than position unwinding by momentum traders. At the moment, it looks like the additional flow impulse that helped bitcoin to break out above $40k came from more speculative institutional investors like those behind bitcoin futures rather than the ones behind the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. In addition, there appears to have been an increase in the flow impulse by retail investors also this week, as suggested by the spike in volumes at itBit i.e. the exchange via which retail purchases via Paypal are routed (Figure 6)
  
  

	Figure 5	Figure 6

• In all, while bitcoin got another boost with Tesla’s announcement this week, the 8% allocation of its cash reserves to bitcoin is unlikely to be followed by more mainstream corporates. Irrespective of how many corporates eventually follow Tesla’s example, there is no doubt that this week’s announcement changed abruptly the near-term trajectory for bitcoin by bolstering speculative institutional flows via bitcoin futures as well as retail flows. How sustained this week’s price surge becomes would depend in our opinion on whether less speculative institutional flows like those behind the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust follow suit. 
  

Interesting to note that, notwithstanding the apparent stall in GBTC inflows, these still is a very bullish positioning highlighted by the proxy positioning indicator.

[fillippone]

A very interesting and complete review of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technologies

BITCOIN At the Tipping Point

A 100 plus long piece.

I will report here the conlcusions:

Conclusion
The philosopher Schopenhauer once remarked that “All truth passes through three
stages. First it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third it is accepted as
being self-evident.”187 Though this sentiment was expressed more than 150 years
before the emergence of Bitcoin, the introduction and evolution of the
cryptocurrency illustrates this very human response to change.

The idea that a new payment system relying on a decentralized cryptographic
approach to facilitate transactions in an extrajudicial manner might gain traction and
challenge traditional payment rails seemed like a pipedream in the early days of its
release. This gave way to denouncements and restrictions as governments, banks,
and regulators sought to limit its growth. As recent events have shown, however,
that resistance may now be melting away.

Large institutional investors and organizations are choosing to participate in and
support Bitcoin. Regulators are beginning to lay the groundwork for the asset to
potentially enter the mainstream. Governments themselves are being pressured
and many are re-considering their own currency offerings. The vision of Bitcoin as a
force that will transform the world may seem self-evident in just a few more years.
The fact this progression has occurred in just over a decade makes Bitcoin
remarkable regardless of its future.

Throughout this journey, the perception of what makes Bitcoin unique continues to
morph. Bitcoin is now many things. To some, it is a payment system based on new
technology set to potentially drive a re-wiring of the entire payments landscape. To
others it is a new currency that can store value in a unique way and marks a new
model of issuance beyond the control of any one nation. Many focus on the
limitations imposed on Bitcoin’s supply and liken it to digital gold, focusing on its
value as an asset class. Those thinking about its future see the potential for Bitcoin
to become a global facilitation currency helping to reduce the friction and complexity
of cross-border trade.

What Bitcoin has undoubtedly become is the inspiration for a rapidly evolving
blockchain-based economy. Its core innovations were the building blocks that
launched this ecosystem and those innovations themselves are now being
extended and levered in new ways that are remaking the world of commerce and
finance. Bitcoin’s existence has helped create a new landscape that in turn has
spawned a whole set of altcoins and created a new, decentralized cryptocurrency
market.

All of these views about Bitcoin’s potential and how it influences and helps to inspire
new business models emerging in the blockchain domain are what leads us to call it
the North Star. Whether it maintains this position and how far the potential
transformation it has inspired extends are both unknowable at this time, but
Bitcoin’s journey has clearly entered a new stage.
Our goal in this paper has been to help readers understand Bitcoin’s past, present,
and possible future. Armed with a fuller understanding of what has driven Bitcoin’s
growth and how it has spurred so much additional innovation and disruption should
allow readers to better assess and determine their own view about Bitcoin’s value
and understand how future news may facilitate additional growth or force a
retrenchment and re-evaluation of its potential.

Very long, yet interesting read.

Thanks to @Plutosky who made me aware of this.

[acquafredda]

After years of blockchain not bitcoin useless brainwash now all the big banks and the wall street firms have to spend liters and liters of ink on BITCOIN which is the only thing that has ever mattered here! Thanks for sharing, this might fill my night's insomnia.

[fillippone]

Another one!

Wall Street is on fire on those reports:


 Understanding Bitcoin Does bitcoin belong in asset allocation considerations?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Among an increasing number of investors and portfolio managers, bitcoin is considered a legitimate and distinct asset class.
• Bitcoin, by design, is a finite asset, with both a unique supply and a unique demand dimension, and as its network increases, bitcoin’s value and durability could increase even faster.
• Seen as a form of “digital gold,” bitcoin may act as a stable store of value and potentially offer protection against inflation—and even hyperinflation.
• Bitcoin, however, faces risks from volatility, competitors, substitutes, regulation, and other factors; further, bitcoin may not be an appropriate or prudent diversifier for all portfolios.
• In my view, some investors may wish to consider bitcoin, alongside other alternatives, as one component of the bond side of a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio
  

This one sports a more traditional approach. Very interesting on a the proposition in adding Bitcoin to a financial portfolio.

[acquafredda]

Another one!

Wall Street is on fire on those reports:


 Understanding Bitcoin Does bitcoin belong in asset allocation considerations?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Among an increasing number of investors and portfolio managers, bitcoin is considered a legitimate and distinct asset class.
• Bitcoin, by design, is a finite asset, with both a unique supply and a unique demand dimension, and as its network increases, bitcoin’s value and durability could increase even faster.
• Seen as a form of “digital gold,” bitcoin may act as a stable store of value and potentially offer protection against inflation—and even hyperinflation.
• Bitcoin, however, faces risks from volatility, competitors, substitutes, regulation, and other factors; further, bitcoin may not be an appropriate or prudent diversifier for all portfolios.
• In my view, some investors may wish to consider bitcoin, alongside other alternatives, as one component of the bond side of a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio
  

This one sports a more traditional approach. Very interesting on a the proposition in adding Bitcoin to a financial portfolio.

That is the most common strategy between traditional wealth and asset managers. Now that everyone's talking bitcoin they are suggesting a tiny exposure to counterbalance stocks, bonds and other traditional assets. Usually they propose between 1-5% btc exposure. Which is not bad on a multi-million portfolio.

[fillippone]

<...>That is the most common strategy between traditional wealth and asset managers. Now that everyone's talking bitcoin they are suggesting a tiny exposure to counterbalance stocks, bonds and other traditional assets. Usually they propose between 1-5% btc exposure. Which is not bad on a multi-million portfolio.

As I wrote elsewhere (on my infamous Proudhon post).

When I decided to buy bitcoin I made a few back of the envelope calculation. The first one was about gold parity, pointing to 350k dollar at the time (now more in the 500k region).

A second one was about the answer of the following question: what if everyone put 1% of their financial wealth on bitcoin.

So a few computation (getting updated figures for gold parity consistency):

World financial wealth (Credit Suisse 2020) : 360 Trln
1% : 3.60 Trillion
This has to becdivided over
21 million bitcoins (I want a conservative number)

Target price: 170,000 USD

Not bad.
Bullish.
My body is ready.

This is why I am particularly excited when I hear someone suggesting a tiny %age allocation to bitcoin in big portfolios.

[acquafredda]

Yep, exactamundo!
You might find this interesting too
https://www.seba.swiss/research/portfolio-diversification-contribution-of-digital-assets/
SEBA Bank is talking about crypto diversification for quite some time now and that makes sense since it is a bank which is basing its business model and value propositions on digital assets like bitcoin.
They post quite interesting pieces every now and then, keep them monitored if you wish.

[fillippone]

One Piece I forgot to add:

JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
US retail investors’ call option buying rises to new highs
2 February 2021

Will the CME launch of ethereum futures contracts reverse recent price dynamics in a repeat of Dec 2017? 

• In past F&L’s we have noted the gradual maturing of the cryptocurrency space as the influence of institutional investors has grown over time since the listing of CME bitcoin futures in Dec 2017.
• This week will see the launch of ethereum futures at CME with cash settlement as with CME bitcoin futures. The listing of ethereum futures on a regulated exchange should serve to enhance the crypto market structure by allowing investors to gain exposure to the second most important cryptocurrency as a diversifier to bitcoin, or for simply hedging existing ethereum exposures. As with CME bitcoin futures, one criticism with cash-settled futures is that they may only allow for imperfect hedging for existing holders of ethereum as hedgers are susceptible to price risk associated with converting ethereum to cash at maturity. And there is an issue of potential manipulation with cash-settled contracts as settlement is based on a collection of spot prices from a number of exchanges with variable liquidity, which traders may be able to manipulate around the time of the futures contracts expiry. While that was also the initial criticism with CME bitcoin futures, some of these criticisms eventually proved overstated as evidenced by the relative growth of cash settled CME bitcoin futures vs. physically settled Bakkt bitcoin futures on the Intercontinental Exchange.
• Initial volumes are likely to be low, echoing the initial listing of cash-settled bitcoin futures by the CME and CBOE in December 2017. At the time, the listing of CME bitcoin futures coincided with all-time highs in bitcoin prices, and researchers at the San Francisco Fed suggested that, by providing a market where bearish positions could be more readily expressed, the listing of these futures contributed to the reversal of bitcoin price dynamics. In a similar vein, it may be that this week’s listing of ethereum futures contracts will be followed by negative price dynamics by enabling some holders of physical ethereum to hedge their exposures.
• A successful launch of ethereum futures this month is likely to be followed by options on ethereum futures, perhaps as early as 2022, in a similar manner to the launch of options on bitcoin futures in the first quarter of 2020. That would expand the alternatives for investors to manage price risk for ethereum , the second most important cryptocurrency with a market cap of $170bn.
  
  

No pictures or graphs here. This was the original text.

[fillippone]

JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
The retail impulse remains strong
16 February 2021

• The retail impulse remains strong with no signs of abating.
• The share of retail-driven equity trading volumes in the US rose to unprecedented levels in January even before the equity market correction of the last week of January.
• Has only $11bn of institutional flow into bitcoin since September-end caused a $700bn increase in its market cap?
• Similar to CME bitcoin futures three years ago, Ethereum futures have seen a rather slow start since launch. ago, Ethereum futures have seen a rather slow start since launch.

Has only $11bn of institutional flow into bitcoin since September-end caused a $700bn increase in its market cap?

• Since the end of September the market cap of bitcoin has grown by $700bn, from 200bn on Sep 30th to $900bn currently. This $700bn increase means that bitcoin has already surpassed gold in risk capital terms, i.e. after adjusting for the much higher vol of bitcoin relative to gold. To see this, one could compare the volatilities of bitcoin and gold, or the volatilities of the biggest bitcoin and gold funds given many institutional investors are only allowed or prefer to invest in fund format. The 3m realized vol for bitcoin currently stands at 87% vs. 16% for gold. In other words, the ratio of the two vols suggests that bitcoin currently consumes 5.4x more risk capital than gold. This ratio rises further if one looks at the biggest bitcoin and gold funds. The 3m realized vol for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust stands at 113% vs. 16% for GLD, the largest gold ETF by AUM, i.e., the ratio of the two vols suggests that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust currently consumes 7.1x more risk capital than GLD. Taking the average of the 5.4x and 7.1x ratios, suggests that bitcoin and its biggest fund on average consume 6.2x more risk capital than gold and its biggest fund, double the 3x ratio needed to equalize the market cap of bitcoin ($900bn) to that of gold for investment purposes ($2.7tr). In other words, bitcoin, at current market prices, has already more than doubled relative to gold in risk capital terms. In our opinion, unless bitcoin volatility subsides quickly from here, its current price of $48k looks unsustainable.
  
• What has been remarkable over the past five months is that the $700bn increase in the market cap of bitcoin has taken place with relatively little institutional flows. For example, proxying these institutional flows via the cumulative flows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust or other publicly listed bitcoin funds as well as the cumulative flows into CME bitcoin futures and announcements by institutions such as Tesla, Mass Mutual, Guggenheim and others, we get an aggregate flow of around $11bn since the end of September which accounts for just above 1.5% of the increase in the bitcoin market cap over the same period. How is it possible that such a limited flow would result in the magnitude of the increase in bitcoin market cap? One possibility is that, given the increase in interest from real money investors, and speculative investors seeking to front-run it, this limited flow is hitting a relatively inelastic supply of a predetermined increase in new bitcoins mined and having to offer a premium to get existing holders to part with their bitcoin holdings. A second possibility is that retail inflows have significantly magnified the institutional flow. As mentioned in the first section above the US retail impulse has been particularly strong since January and there is little doubt that this retail impulse has been a driving force not only for equities, but also for bitcoin.
• Figure 5 shows 2-week rolling flows into the Greyscale trust as a proxy for real money interest and 2-week rolling changes in our futures positioning indicator as a proxy for speculative institutional investor interest compared to 2-week rolling returns in bitcoin prices. It suggests that, after announcements from end-September onwards, real money inflows during Oct/Nov/Dec contributed to the rally in bitcoin prices at the time, while the movements since January this year appear to have been more influenced by speculative flows. This also suggest that some pickup in real money flows would likely be needed to sustain current prices in the absence of a re-acceleration of the retail flow.

	Figure 5

 

• Finally, as we noted recently, the new futures contracts on Ethereum have started trading on the CME. How does the initial experience compare to when Bitcoin futures were listed in December 2017? Figure 6 shows the cumulative open interest in dollar terms in the initial days after the contracts were launched. Thus far, similar to when Bitcoin futures were listed, the initial interest appears to have grown rather cautiously, but in our opinion it will likely not take as long for Ethereum futures to begin gaining traction as it initially took for Bitcoin futures, as investor interest in cryptocurrencies has had a few years to mature.
  

	Figure 6

[fillippone]

JPM has a complex strategy on Bitcoin.
There is a flurry of reports from them: the latest is a presentation deck for their private clients, UHNW Individuals with more than 10 Mios $ of financial asset allocation.

JPMorgan tells private wealth clients that bitcoin can be a portfolio diversifier 'if sized correctly'

In a slide entitled "How others are valuing crypto?" the bank broke down three commonly used metrics taken by market participants that "suggest significant upside [of bitcoin] is possible."

Under the so-called Metcalfe's law, which suggests the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users, bitcoin's per-coin valuation would be at $21,667.

If comparing the current global value of gold to bitcoin by using the 21 million max supply of bitcoin, then bitcoin's valuation would be at $540,814. Finally, if applying the global value of money supply to the max supply of bitcoin, its value would be $1.9 million.

Apparently, they see the demand, albeit not at full potential (yet) but they don't want their client to miss the opportunity. So they are moving in different direction with a various degrees of "risks" and "innovations".
See for example also this: a very conservative way of getting crypto exposure.

[jaysabi]

JPM has a complex strategy on Bitcoin.
There is a flurry of reports from them: the latest is a presentation deck for their private clients, UHNW Individuals with more than 10 Mios $ of financial asset allocation.

JPMorgan tells private wealth clients that bitcoin can be a portfolio diversifier 'if sized correctly'

In a slide entitled "How others are valuing crypto?" the bank broke down three commonly used metrics taken by market participants that "suggest significant upside [of bitcoin] is possible."

Under the so-called Metcalfe's law, which suggests the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users, bitcoin's per-coin valuation would be at $21,667.

If comparing the current global value of gold to bitcoin by using the 21 million max supply of bitcoin, then bitcoin's valuation would be at $540,814. Finally, if applying the global value of money supply to the max supply of bitcoin, its value would be $1.9 million.

Apparently, they see the demand, albeit not at full potential (yet) but they don't want their client to miss the opportunity. So they are moving in different direction with a various degrees of "risks" and "innovations".
See for example also this: a very conservative way of getting crypto exposure.

The problem with the last metric is it assumes that bitcoin is a perfect replacement for the global money supply and has no other competitors as to where to allocate dollars, so it seems faulty to me to assume that bitcoin's value has to be proportionally equivalent to the total money supply in the world.  In reality, as an asset class it competes against all other asset classes for an allocation in a portfolio, so people who don't want to hold dollars will choose between real estate, gold, equities, debt instruments, crypto and any other type of asset.  Bitcoin could never represent all of it because it's not the only asset class.

[fillippone]

DB Research
Part III. Bitcoins: Can the Tinkerbell Effect Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
17 March 2021

• Bitcoin’s market cap of $1 trillion makes it too important to ignore. Big players who buy and sell bitcoins have considerable market-moving power. As long as asset managers and companies continue to enter the market, Bitcoin prices could continue to rise.
  
•   But bitcoin transactions and tradability are still limited. And the real debate is whether rising valuations alone can be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle.
• Bitcoin’s value will continue to rise and fall depending on what people believe it is worth. This is sometimes called the Tinkerbell Effect — a recognised economic term stating that the more people believe in something, the likelier it is to happen based on Peter Pan’s assertion that Tinkerbell exists because children believe she exists.
• Central banks and governments understand that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, so they are expected to start regulating crypto-assets late this year or early next year. They are also speeding up research on their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and launching pilots. Click here for more details.
• In the medium to long run, due to very strong network effects, there will likely be little room for using cryptocurrencies as a widespread means of payment. The regulatory landscape related to CBDCs, current cryptocurrency projects, and future efforts (e.g. Libra/Diem by Facebook) is still uncertain.

In the short term, Bitcoin is here to stay and its value will remain volatile

• We estimate that less than 30% of transactional activity in bitcoins is related to payment for goods and services, with the rest largely used as a financial investment.
•   As an investment asset, Bitcoin liquidity remains low. In 2020, 28mn bitcoins changed hands (150% of total bitcoins in circulation), compared to 40bn shares of Apple (270% of its total shares in circulation).
• Due to its still limited tradability, Bitcoin is expected to remain ultra- volatile; a few additional large purchases or market exits could significantly impact the supply-demand equilibrium.
• The root causes of Bitcoin’s volatility include: small tactical asset allocations and the entries and exits of large asset managers.

In the long term, Bitcoin, like Tesla, will have to transform potential into results to sustain its value proposition

• Tesla’s current market capitalisation is $665 billion (as of 03/12/2021), which is almost five times the market cap of Ford and GM combined. That's remarkable because GM sold around 8 times as many cars as Tesla in 2020, while Ford sold more than 5 times as many. The ratio of market-cap to vehicle sold by Tesla and Ford shows that the current value of Tesla is 63 times that of Ford.
• Tesla’s valuation is pricing in a significant market shift toward electric cars, leading to the hypothesis that Tesla will remain an absolute leader in that market.
• Similarly, Bitcoin’s total value is $1,075 billion (as of 03/15/2021), which is around 102% of the yen in circulation, 65% of the euros, 53% of the USD, and 904% more than the GBP. Yet, the average number of bitcoins exchanged daily in USD is equivalent to only 0.05% of the yen and 0.06% of the GBP.
• Bitcoin’s current valuation is pricing in a shift toward cross-border digital currencies; the hypothesis is that Bitcoin, as
  the leader, will benefit from network effects and become an important means of payment in the future.
• Tesla is five years older than Bitcoin and has always sparked robust debates between people who see it as a soon-to-die fad and those who see it as the future of the car. Market sentiment has started to shift significantly in the last 18 months as Tesla delivered early results, such as Model 3, at scale.
• The next two or three years should be a turning point for Bitcoin; consensus about its future may emerge as people monitor digital currency developments. For more details, see Part II. When digital currencies become mainstream.

[fillippone]

Bloomberg Crypto Outlook
Rising Bitcoin Adoption Tide
05 April 2021



https://fillippone.altervista.org/1060725_Crypto-Apr2021Outlook.pdf

ï‚· Electricity, Internet, Bitcoin, Digitalization, Dollar Dominance
ï‚· Bitcoin Fills the Digital Reserve-Asset Need in Low-Yield World
ï‚· Bitcoin Replacing Old-Guard Gold Is More Sudden Than Gradual
ï‚· Dollar's Digital Dominance Eclipsing China Yuan Global Adoption
ï‚· Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Is Gaining the Upper Hand Over Tesla

[fillippone]

Atlantic Equities
Coinbase Global Inc.
1 April 2021



https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf

Just only one detail:

Overweight
Price Target $460.00

[fullhdpixel]

That "adoption" line is very important, it shows how much bitcoin is getting the usage case as well as the investment part and that is what I care about. Honestly these wall street companies talking about bitcoin all this much really improves our chances to be taken seriously, the more positive things they talk about the better will be for us and that is why I care about that a lot, but at the end of the day we do not need to just talk about it, we need them to act on it.

For the past 40 days or so we haven't received any decent investment from these big companies, those billions of dollars spent on late months of 2020 and early months of 2021 is not happening for the past 40 days. They can talk as much as they want but if it is not providing us with billions of dollars worth of investments again, that is not going to mean anything in the end.

[jaysabi]

Atlantic Equities
Coinbase Global Inc.
1 April 2021



https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf

Just only one detail:

Overweight
Price Target $460.00

The price target is for Coinbase.  Interestingly, Coinbase hasn't started trading publicly yet but there is a tokenized version already trading and it's priced at $535 as of now.  I was unfamiliar with this concept, but from the description:

What are tokenized stocks?
Equities are stocks that trade on traditional regulated exchanges. FTX lists tokens on select equities. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired.

CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services.

It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock.  So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly.

[fillippone]

It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock.  So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly.

Very interesting.
Gray markets have been there since the start of financial markets, but I would steer away from highly manipulated, unregulated markets if I were trying to infer anything on the real thing.

[fillippone]

J.P. Morgan Research
Why is the Bitcoin futures curve so steep?
9 April 2021


https://fillippone.altervista.org/JPM_Bitcoin_futures_Contango.pdf


Really, really interesting analysis on one of the most crowded trades in bitcoin.

[paxmao]

To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources.