Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin

[jaysabi]

It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock.  So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly.

Very interesting.
Gray markets have been there since the start of financial markets, but I would steer away from highly manipulated, unregulated markets if I were trying to infer anything on the real thing.

Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, so it's just a way to trade something more easily that was locked away for accredited investors. That's one area I think tokens are very useful, as long as the entity sponsoring the token is a regulated financial entity in a country with strong financial regulation, as is the case here.

To follow up on it, the token crashed hard when Coinbase started trading, which was one of the two outcomes I stated might happen. In retrospect, of course it was the cryptotraders who were wrong and hyped themselves into a risky position.  :]

I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now.

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[fillippone]

Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, <...>

I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now.

Oh really? Is there a share backing up a token? Who says that?
It took years to have an audit of the reserves of the biggest stablecoin: who is taking care of auditing this particular token?
How can be a share backing up a token if the share wasn't quoted in the first place?
Who am I trusting to deliver the payoff when needed?
I would love to trust those "code is law" token, but as usual, I feel uncomfortable trusting someone I don't know without a clear legal framework.

[jaysabi]

To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources.

Well yeah, it's hard to "value" something that's arbitrary and speculative. Bitcoin doesn't produce income and it doesn't produce cashflow, which are two things needed to determine a valuation of what it should be "worth" in the present.  Bitcoin is just worth what the largest group of people at any one time agree it's worth.  While this is true for stocks as well, stock valuations are at least tied to valuation metrics (not always at any given time, but ultimately always eventually).

[jaysabi]

Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, <...>

I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now.

Oh really? Is there a share backing up a token? Who says that?
It took years to have an audit of the reserves of the biggest stablecoin: who is taking care of auditing this particular token?
How can be a share backing up a token if the share wasn't quoted in the first place?
Who am I trusting to deliver the payoff when needed?
I would love to trust those "code is law" token, but as usual, I feel uncomfortable trusting someone I don't know without a clear legal framework.

Yes, the sponsor of the token (CM-Equity) has shares of Coinbase to back up each token and the tokens are redeemable for Coinbase shares on demand.

These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired.

CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services.

Since this is a regulated financial institution in Germany, I'd expect this to be true.  They'd be in for some huge fines if they made these representations and they were not true.

[fillippone]

Goldman Sachs
Top of Mind:CRYPTO: A NEW ASSET CLASS?
21 May 2021



https://fillippone.altervista.org/Top_of_Mind_Crypto_a_new_asset_class.pdf

[fillippone]

Wells Fargo
The investment rationale for cryptocurrencies
May 2021



https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/sr_investment_rationale_for_cryptocurrencies/

Key takeaways

• Improved regulatory clarity and rising interest in digital technologies, especially during the coronavirus pandemic, have accompanied a wider variety of cryptocurrencies and increased market capitalization.
• Risks remain, yet we view improved depth and breadth as components of a gradually maturing marketplace.

What it may mean for investors

• We view digital assets as an alternative investment for qualified investors through a professionally managed fund. Due to the uniqueness, complexity and continued evolution of these assets, we plan to produce a series of reports with a goal of increasing investor education and understanding of cryptocurrencies.

Executive summary – What’s changed and why now?

We believe that cryptocurrencies have evolved into a viable investment asset. There are over 9,000 cryptocurrencies, with $2.4 trillion in capitalization (as of May 7, 2021), and this depth and breadth allow additional analysis of their trends. 1 Short-term factors suggest further deepening of the market. We believe long-term supply and demand trends support further industry growth, the potential for further compression in price volatility, and a possible role as portfolio diversifiers.

Several crucial events in 2020 drew increased mainstream usage in transactions and accelerated the maturation of cryptocurrency markets. First, banks received regulatory permission to custody cryptocurrencies, and the investment industry and regulators took additional steps to extend a legal and oversight framework that should help solidify cryptocurrencies as investable assets. The coronavirus pandemic also played a role by fast-tracking the digital economy, as the return to near-zero interest rates sparked inflation fears and interest in alternative payment systems.

Evolving markets for investable assets often introduce unique risks that require deeper due diligence. The main known cryptocurrency risks include the possibility of additional regulation and various operational risks associated with making transactions. Periods of persistently high volatility remain likely as maturation occurs. These potential risks and the need for ongoing due diligence underscore our preference that qualified investors consider a professionally managed option.

We classify any cryptocurrency or digital asset investment as an Alternative Investment. In general, assets in the Alternative Investments category entail some combination of nontraditional sources of return, potential long-term diversification, complexity, potential illiquidity premiums, and higher volatility. Exposure through a professionally managed fund potentially may serve alongside private equity and debt strategies as the primary means of capturing long-term trends from fintech and other secular developments arising from digitization in the economy. 2 Additional investment structures may arrive in the not-too-distant future.

[fillippone]

A new report from Arane Research, powered by Bitstamp.

The case for bitcoin as collateral


The value of the global market for collateral is estimated to be close to $20 trillion in assets. Government bonds and cash-based securities alike are currently the most important parts of a well- functioning collateral market. However, in that, there is a growing weakness as rehypothecation creates a systemic risk in the financial system as a whole. The increasing reuse of collateral makes these assets far from risk-free and shows the potential instability of the financial markets and that it is more fragile than many would like to admit.
Bitcoin could become an important part of the solution and challenge the dominating collateral assets in the future.

Bitcoin's unique properties make it the perfect collateral asset

Bitcoin's combination of properties is unlike those of any other asset classes: It is an asset without both counterparty risk and credit risk. It is available for trading 24/7, 365 days a year, all over the world. In addition, it is the most portable asset the world has ever seen. Bitcoin can be transferred around the world, instantly, at almost no cost, any time of the day, and any day of the year, and with full finality. No other assets can match these properties today, making bitcoin the perfect collateral asset for the future.

A potential trillion-dollar market

The current size of the collateral markets is estimated to almost $20 trillion in assets. Our estimates show the huge potential for bitcoin as collateral, even if it just captures a few percentages of the existing market.
Based on our calculations and data collected for this report, we estimate that around 625,000 BTC are used as collateral in the crypto market today, or approximately $30 billion. This number is based on estimations of collateral held in the derivatives market, in relation to bitcoin collateralized lending and tokenized BTC in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Comparing this number of 625,000 BTC to the total collateral market, shows that bitcoin collateral only accounts for 0.15% of the total collateral market today but the market is growing rapidly.

[bocyaj]

In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks  on Bitcoin.

Banking sectors have begun to cover Bitcoin in Various aspects. A few reports are quite remarkable, so will deserve their own thread. Some other are important for a minor reason, but maybe they are referenced on other news, or papers without  proper reporting, and it is often difficult to read the original article.

I will use those to collate and reference into other thread, publishing graphs and paragraph linked to these research.

 I won't be able to post full documents to protect my sources, obviously.

All reported material will be quoted.
My comments will be out of quotes.

If you find some missing article, or want to read a particular one, just ask, I will unleash my hounds to fetch the missing pieces.

Now bank accepted the online transaction for bitcoin.In countries like India,the liquidity and flow of coin was reduced by making 00101010he statement by RBI.Before investing,you should cross verify the team.The crowd sale will happen and team should concentrate on the future

[fillippone]

Either or this thread is becoming too big, or investment Banks are ramping up Bitcoin reporting:

Goldman Sachs
Digital Assets: Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder
June 2021

https://fillippone.altervista.org/digital-assets-beauty-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder.pdf

[fillippone]

JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
The challenge from positive bond-equity correlation
resurfaces
06 October 2021

• The renewed increase in bond-equity correlation in September likely pressured multi asset investors such as risk parity funds and balanced mutual funds to de-risk. Given a decent amount of de-risking has taken place already, these types of investors should pose less vulnerability for equity and bond markets in October.
• In the near term, what perhaps presents greater vulnerability to both equity and bond markets is the risk from further downshifting by momentum traders such as CTAs which appear to have entered a phase of net long position reduction in equities and addition of net shorts in government bonds.
• Longer term, persistent inflation could make this year’s shift in bondequity correlation spill over into 2022. This would pose a bigger challenge for multi asset investors such as risk parity funds and 60:40 funds.
• At best tentative signs of stagflation fears translating into flows.
  
• Institutional investors appear to be returning to bitcoin perhaps seeing it as a better inflation hedge than gold.
• There are tentative signs that the previous shift away from gold into bitcoin seen during most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021 has started re-emerging in recent weeks.

Institutional investors appear to be returning to bitcoin perhaps seeing it as a better inflation hedge than gold. There are tentative signs that the previous shift away from gold into bitcoin seen during most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021 has started reemerging in recent weeks

• Cryptocurrency markets continued to rally over the past weeks exceeding a total market cap of $2.3tr (down only 10% from the May 12th peak of $2.56tr). The more recent rally has been driven by bitcoin the share of which in the crypto market has risen from a low of40.9% on September 12th to 44.7% currently (Figure 15). The increase in the share of bitcoin is a healthy development as it is more likely to reflect institutional participation than smaller cryptocurrencies. As we had argued before our position proxies based on CME futures had showed strong preference for ethereum vs. bitcoin by institutional investors during most of August and September. But as shown in Figure 16 this preference appears to be have been reversing since the end of September with a sharp rebound in the position proxy for bitcoin. This rebound reflects at least partly short covering as indicated by Figure 17 which depicts bitcoin futures liquidations across all futures exchanges. According to Figure 17 short bitcoin futures position liquidations appear to have picked up over the past week or two.

• What has triggered the bitcoin recovery? There are three main explanations: 1) the recent assurances by US policy makers that there is no intention to follow China’s steps towards banning the usage or mining of cryptocurrencies; 2) the recent rise of the Lightning Network and 2nd layer payments solutions helped by El Salvador’s bitcoin adoption. According to President Bukele 2.7m Salvadorians had onboarded by early October the Chivo wallet which uses the Lightning Network. We have to admit we are skeptical of this second explanation; and 3) the reemergence of inflation concerns among investors has renewed interest in the usage of bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin’s allure as an inflation hedge has perhaps been strengthened by the failure of gold to respond in recent weeks to heightened concerns over inflation, behaving more as a real rate proxy rather than inflation hedge. Indeed Figure 18 shows tentative signs that the previous shift away from gold into bitcoin seen during most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021 has started re-emerging in recent weeks.
  

[fillippone]

Ark Investment published a really interesting report on Valuing bitcoin, focusing on this unique attribute as a financial assets, adding a new dimension to the analysis: onchain data.

Introduction
Bitcoin’s inability to fit neatly within the framework associated with traditional asset classes
has prevented many institutional investors from adopting it. Instead of considering its unique attributes, skeptical investors seem to have concluded that Bitcoin (the blockchain) and bitcoin (the cryptocurrency) cannot be analyzed fundamentally. In this white paper, we illustrate how on-chain data offers a new framework for analyzing emerging monetary assets like bitcoin. As institutional investors gain exposure to bitcoin, we believe that the network’s three data layers will enhance their understanding of and confidence in its underlying fundamentals.

Conclusion

Because bitcoin does not resemble a traditional asset, many investors seem to be grappling with ways to analyze it fundamentally. While conventional analytical frameworks are not suitable, the Bitcoin blockchain offers a unique set of tools that investors can leverage to assess its fundamentals.
In the same way that a government statistical agency publishes data about a country’s population and economy, or a public company publishes quarterly financial statements disclosing growth rates and earnings, Bitcoin provides a real-time, global ledger that publishes data about the network’s activity and inner economics. Without central control, Bitcoin’s blockchain provides open-source data, its integrity a function of the network’s transparency. In our view, investors increasingly will appreciate bitcoin’s investment merits through the lens of a completely new framework: on-chain data.

The authors of this paper are ARK’s Yassine Elmandjra and David Puell.

[fillippone]

I don't know if you can classify it as a Wall Street Report on Bitcoin, but it's a gargantuan 165 report on the status of the crypto world today and future theses for the next year from Messari:



Here you have the introduction:

Welcome

Ho, Ho, Ho.
’ll keep this brief, since the rest of this report is not.
The Theses started as a tweet thread four years ago on New Year’s Day. Along with the rest of the crypto
industry, the report has exploded in size and complexity each year since. I write it for our team - to highlight
the amazing work they’ve done throughout the year, and to synthesize the crypto chaos for any new hires. I
write it for myself - to organize my monkey mind and create a mental model for crypto and an index of the
best available research.
And, of course, I write for you. Whether you’re a crypto novice or a multi-cycle veteran, I try to deliver a free,
comprehensive 201-level crypto course with 101-level intros and links as an annual holiday gift to those who
will find it helpful.
In return, you get to yell at me for typos (thanks!), mis-summarizing your favorite coins (do better marketing!),
omitting the #246 asset by market cap (I’m not a short-seller!), and copy pasta-ing other people’s ideas
throughout (good artists copy, great artists steal).
A couple of disclaimers before you dive in:
1. The alpha in this report is free, and many have gleaned insights from past reports that helped them
make money, but nothing herein is investment advice. Be an adult.
2. I stand on the shoulders of giants. In certain chapters, I borrow liberally from other authors who have
already delivered amazing insights on a given topic. Nic Carter and Lyn Alden in the bitcoin section.
Punk6529 and Ben Yu in the NFT section. Watkins and Wilson and Mason and Roberto et al in the
DeFi, ETH & Friends, and DAO sections. Balaji and Chris Dixon throughout. By reading on, you
accept my terms of service, which includes the provision that any accidental plagiarism of the above
cited authors is unintentional and will be corrected ex post facto. (Do you want a free report or do
you want MLA-level standards and the boredom that comes with mind-numbing citation?)
3. This beast took me ~250 hours to write (8-10% of my annual bandwidth). Every year, I secretly root
for it to flop to spare me from the temptation of writing another one. If you like the report, you
can thank the Messari team for running the business in my absence last month. They accept thank
you’s in the form of followers and Pro subscriptions. I accept thank you’s in the form of 5-6 figure
Enterprise subs and Hub memberships.
4. I own assets discussed in this report. My core holdings are disclosed at the end of Chapter 1 (along
with those of the rest of the Messari team), and any angel or liquid investments I have made to date
are marked with an asterisk. No conflicts, no interest.
This report caps an epic year for crypto and for Messari. In 2021, we grew the size of our team ~4x and
revenues ~8x. We raised a Series A, and launched a killer new product every quarter - Intel in Q1, our
Analyst Hub in Q2, Mainnet in Q3, and some new tools for DAOs that we’ll be unveiling next week. Next
year will be even bigger. We’re hiring. A lot. And we pay $10,000 per engineering referral if you know any
good ones (or are one yourself).
We’re also doing something fun this year, and auctioning off a bunch of Theses-related NFTs for charity. Our
“heroes” collection includes artwork for the top people to watch this year. They’ll get a special personal
edition of the art as a keepsake, but the remainder are 1/1 NFTs that we’re auctioning through our partner
OpenSea. (Commissioner Peirce’s NFT looks particularly rare.) We also have a series of battlescenes in the
collection that are pure fire. Thanks to Jaen for the inspiring work and inspiration. This is an NFT test run for
us, and we’ll have more to come. You might want to buy an annual Pro subscription to keep up with 2022
developments. Just saying.
As always, I am humbled you would consider reading this report and appreci...oh who am I kidding, this
report is f*cking incredible, and like Kanye at one of his concerts, I’m jealous you get to read it with fresh
eyes.* Because I’m honestly sick of looking at it.
Happy Holidays, próspero año y felicidad, and as always, wear a helmet.
-TBI
*Kidding. Kinda

[paxmao]

To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources.

Well yeah, it's hard to "value" something that's arbitrary and speculative. Bitcoin doesn't produce income and it doesn't produce cashflow, which are two things needed to determine a valuation of what it should be "worth" in the present.  Bitcoin is just worth what the largest group of people at any one time agree it's worth.  While this is true for stocks as well, stock valuations are at least tied to valuation metrics (not always at any given time, but ultimately always eventually).

Yes, that is quite right. These guys are also used to value commodities, a market in which having the right (expensive) sources of information on the evolution of demand and offer do give all the advantage to the larger trading and investment houses over the shrimps out there. However, with bitcoin, those sources of privileged  - let's rather call them "advanced" - information are not that well known and are not that readily available only at the right price.

[fillippone]

ARK investment published their Big Ideas 2022.




Of course there is a section dedicated to Bitcoin.



Of course there is a lot of bullish materials in this presentation. Something you could use to convince as skeptics to invest in Bitcoin! Classic Katie Wood.

[fillippone]

Wells Fargo
Cryptocurrencies - Too early or too late
7 February 2022




The most interesting part is the comparison of Crypto adoption compared to Internet in the '90's

[fillippone]

Morgan Stanley
Buying a Coffee with Crypto
April 21, 2022





This report is a clear reference to Jack Maller's presentation at Bitcoin Conference 2022

[CaptainCrapper]

In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks  on Bitcoin.

Banking sectors have begun to cover Bitcoin in Various aspects. A few reports are quite remarkable, so will deserve their own thread. Some other are important for a minor reason, but maybe they are referenced on other news, or papers without  proper reporting, and it is often difficult to read the original article.

I will use those to collate and reference into other thread, publishing graphs and paragraph linked to these research.

I won't always be able to post full documents to protect my sources, obviously, as often those materials come with a watermark.

All reported material will be quoted.
My comments will be out of quotes.

If you find some missing article, or want to read a particular one, just ask, I will unleash my hounds to fetch the missing pieces.

some country trying to legalize this BTC and some county doing stopping the transaction it totally depends on the stop wair so we are just waiting to get very good something by using BTC transactions.

[fillippone]

BBG May crypto Outlook is Out:



Delusional analysis on how the monetary policies by the FED can influence theCryptos.

[fillippone]

Fidelity released a very simple “Valuing bitcoin” paper.


Valuing Bitcoin




They describe both supply side models, such as PlanB’s stock to flow, and demand based models, based on S-shaped adoption curves and Metcalfe’s law.

[$anounimus$]

In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks  on Bitcoin.

I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result.