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Author Topic: Simple prediction: 2024 bitcoin at 200.000 dollars  (Read 277 times)
Skybuck
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January 01, 2021, 01:16:24 PM
 #1

Data from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmm even https://www.blockchain.com/prices/BTC seems to have "lost" historic date, most unfortunate indeed.

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now:

may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?! Wink

(I believe the halving has something to do with it.)

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Bye for now,
  Skybuck =D
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January 01, 2021, 01:50:41 PM
 #2

The facts you provided are assumed to be well logical but it’s still based on predictions so we’re predicting based on some of the traits and advantage we see occurring in the market on a daily basis but it’s can result to the unpredictable so we need to wise in our everyday transactions with bitcoin.

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January 01, 2021, 03:36:15 PM
 #3

You might as well read @fillippone, Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity. This model is graphically on the dot still even as we closes $30k. And I would say that there are many skeptics or even laughing at this model, and should interest anyone who are into predicting the bitcoin's price.

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January 01, 2021, 04:25:37 PM
 #4


may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?! Wink



This is quite reasonable and can be used as research where in May there are always surprises like a gateway for bitcoin, even though it's the beginning of the halving which will be the same at the end of the year than in May. need to do research in this regard. There could be a correlation that is deliberately used as a benchmark. but even though I still can't say it in full. because I need a sufficient basis to support whatever speculation is said.

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January 01, 2021, 04:32:03 PM
 #5

may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?! Wink

You're looking only at the last bull market. There's no rule saying that every next bull market has to look exactly like the one before it.

Compare 2013 and 2017. They are not the same! 2013 took us from about 150 to 1100 USD so about 7.5x and 2017 measured from the peak of the last bull market was 19x.

If this bull market was only to be 7x like 2013 we'd land at 140 thousand dollars but many people predict that it takes so much fiat money to break the 100 thousand barrier that it will take years.
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January 01, 2021, 07:26:10 PM
 #6

2024 is the next date for bitcoin's halving.

I'm also thinking that there would be a better price after that. But we're still 3 years and several months far from it. And from that period, a lot of things can happen on their way to the next halving.

Things that can affect bitcoin's price, positively or negatively.



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January 01, 2021, 07:58:55 PM
 #7

It doesn't work like that. It's much easier to push something higher when it is cheap. When it is expensive like it is now, it gets much much harder to push it higher since it's already very high.
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January 01, 2021, 08:59:19 PM
 #8

It doesn't work like that. It's much easier to push something higher when it is cheap. When it is expensive like it is now, it gets much much harder to push it higher since it's already very high.
Simple line of response but this is actually on point where people should think this way that it can indeed go to high multipliers when its still cheap but when its expensive or on high price already then its really hard to attain those numbers. People cant just stop on giving out those kind of price where to consider on how long we've been staying low or on how many years.We did even struggle or the market to break the ATH.
How much more on presuming on higher numbers or digits? 2021 or 2024 .. reaching 100k or 200k or even 1M is nearly or can only happen in dreams.

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January 02, 2021, 12:26:44 AM
 #9

It is not unreasonable, it can happen, 2024 is even further away, 2020 showed us many fundamentals that affected the world and the Bitcoin market and all markets in general, of course gold was the one that did not suffer much, but for now to make a prediction of that style until 2024 I would not dare to do it. But I think it will be much more than that price.


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January 02, 2021, 01:50:34 AM
 #10

Why not?

But the exponential growth might slow down specially if we are going to touch 6 digits. Not unless all major companies in the US has stock pile bitcoin in the billions then we can have like $200k in just about four years. But we all know that there are companies not totally sold on bitcoin becoming a hedge and because it's volatility. But for sure, down the future 6 digits are going to be possible, specially how bitcoin are going to be scarce going into the next halving.


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January 02, 2021, 08:10:29 AM
 #11

That seems reasonable. I actually think there is a good chance it is significantly higher than that, like possible twice that price. But it depends how the cycles go now. If we're gonna see the end of another 4 year cycle in a year with a huge crash and long bear market then in 2024 price may only just be pushing through $100k (again?) on it's way to a new peak in 2025. But if institutional investors pretty much rip the 4 year cycle apart because they just keep wading in gradually for years to come then we might just see a prolonged bull market in which case the price could easily be significantly higher than $200k in 2024. The 2024 $200k prediction kinda cuts those two possible paths (and of course there are others but those seem to be the most likely to me) in half so it's a good average of them at least.

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January 02, 2021, 08:18:24 AM
 #12

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

You are not taking into account the fact that the higher the price, the more time and money it will take for it to rise further. Therefore, the previous growth dynamics should not be taken as a calculation formula. Obviously, in order for Bitcoin to reach such a mark, the capitalization must be replenished by several trillion dollars, which can take a long time. We also take into account that the market will not always grow, there will be phases of accumulation and decline.

In general, I am not surprised by such a forecast, 2017 has already shown us that forecasts with 6 and 7 digit prices for bitcoin are always born during a period of euphoria from a prolonged bull run. And people think that it will be like this all the time.

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January 02, 2021, 09:05:29 AM
 #13

Data from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmm even https://www.blockchain.com/prices/BTC seems to have "lost" historic date, most unfortunate indeed.

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now:

may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?! Wink

(I believe the halving has something to do with it.)

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Bye for now,
  Skybuck =D

You cannot really count an accurate result on what will be the price in the future since it's kinda far to happen and for sure there are series of events that will contribute to the growth or either the price collapse of bitcoin so maybe we shouldn't think something almost unreal maybe we should let the faith decide if we can really see that.

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lepbagong
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January 02, 2021, 11:31:48 AM
 #14


What did the OP say in the simple details that determine that bitcoin could be $ 200K by 2024? let's see the halving ....

HALVING:
events when mining rewards are cut in half or represent a halving / 50% reduction in the supply of Bitcoin to the market. This is a standard rule on the blockchain to make Bitcoin even rarer. The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks or it can also be called the equivalent of 4 years.

First Halving: 28 November 2012
there was a very significant increase occurred in November 2013 with a value of $ 1,127

Second Halving: 9 July 2016
there was a more significant increase from the first halving in December 2017 with a value of $ 19,665

Third Halving: 12 May 2020
Will there be an increase equal to the first and second halving in the following year with adjacent months.
If it happened in November / December 2021 and the current price has reached over $ 29K, wouldn't there be any surprise that the price of bitcoin could be 2x or 3x the last price in 2017?
how about seeing% of the first and second !!! 19,665: 1.127 = 17x?

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January 02, 2021, 01:32:11 PM
 #15

You've already found the popular pattern sometimes referred to as "cycles" but the start time of each round that you chose sounds wrong to me. Each cycle doesn't start from halving but the halving falls nearly at the middle of each. And it does affect it because after all the production rate is cut by 50% each time but the effects aren't right away and they are not the main driving force for the rallies, the adoption is.

Consequently your 2024 is off the mark too. This Cycle began at the bottom about 2 years ago and it is possible that only one more year remains from this cycle meaning by the end of 2021 we will see the new bubble. So your prediction ($200k) should fall there although I personally think price will be at least twice that.

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January 02, 2021, 03:05:53 PM
 #16

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now

If you mean data from before 2013, then logically you will not find them on those pages that follow the data from the moment they were founded. There are some pages where you can see earlier data, for example on this link Bitcoin Historical Price&Events


I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Personally, I'm not greedy, and I'm more focused on this year, which will show whether this is just a price pumping by big investors today with the intention of dumping at some point - or whether the price will continue to rise regardless of the numbers. I think it's possible to reach at least $100 000 this year, which would be about $6000 per month up. 2024 is still quite a long way off, and I don't think anyone can know what awaits us in that period and how the world's political elites will look at the fact that trillions are pouring into Bitcoin.

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January 03, 2021, 06:39:59 AM
 #17

Interesting theory, however, you need to examine all halving events (not just the last one) before you can make assumptions concerning the apparent price in a little under four year's time.

Is it a linier climb? Have you factored in crashes? Exchange thefts flooding the market and pushing the price off of a cliff all need to be considered.

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